• Title/Summary/Keyword: Case Prediction

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Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

Prediction of the DO concentration using the machine learning algorithm: case study in Oncheoncheon, Republic of Korea

  • Lim, Heesung;An, Hyunuk;Choi, Eunhyuk;Kim, Yeonsu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.1029-1037
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    • 2020
  • The machine learning algorithm has been widely used in water-related fields such as water resources, water management, hydrology, atmospheric science, water quality, water level prediction, weather forecasting, water discharge prediction, water quality forecasting, etc. However, water quality prediction studies based on the machine learning algorithm are limited compared to other water-related applications because of the limited water quality data. Most of the previous water quality prediction studies have predicted monthly water quality, which is useful information but not enough from a practical aspect. In this study, we predicted the dissolved oxygen (DO) using recurrent neural network with long short-term memory model recurrent neural network long-short term memory (RNN-LSTM) algorithms with hourly- and daily-datasets. Bugok Bridge in Oncheoncheon, located in Busan, where the data was collected in real time, was selected as the target for the DO prediction. The 10-month (temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) data were used as time prediction inputs, and the 5-year (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and rainfall) data were used as the daily forecast inputs. Missing data were filled by linear interpolation. The prediction model was coded based on TensorFlow, an open-source library developed by Google. The performance of the RNN-LSTM algorithm for the hourly- or daily-based water quality prediction was tested and analyzed. Research results showed that the hourly data for the water quality is useful for machine learning, and the RNN-LSTM algorithm has potential to be used for hourly- or daily-based water quality forecasting.

A Design and Implementation Red Tide Prediction Monitoring System using Case Based Reasoning (사례 기반 추론을 이용한 적조 예측 모니터링 시스템 구현 및 설계)

  • Song, Byoung-Ho;Jung, Min-A;Lee, Sung-Ro
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.35 no.12B
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    • pp.1219-1226
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    • 2010
  • It is necessary to implementation of system contain intelligent decision making algorithm because discriminant and prediction system for Red Tide is insufficient development and the study of red tide are focused for the investigation of chemical and biological causing. In this paper, we designed inference system using case based reasoning method and implemented knowledge base that case for Red Tide. We used K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm for recommend best similar case and input 375 EA by case for Red Tide case base. As a result, conducted 10-fold cross verification for minimal impact from learning data and acquired confidence, we obtained about 84.2% average accuracy for Red Tide case and the best performance results in case by number of similarity classification k is 5. And, we implemented Red Tide monitoring system using inference result.

Case study of design and construction for cutter change in EPB TBM tunneling (EPB 쉴드 TBM 커터 교체 설계 및 시공 사례 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-won;Kang, Sung-wook;Jung, Jae-hoon;Kang, Han-byul;Shin, Young Jin
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.553-581
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    • 2022
  • Shortly after tunnel boring machine (TBM) was introduced in the tunneling industry, the use of TBM has surprisingly increased worldwide due to its performance together with the benefit of being safely and environmentally friendly. One of the main cost items in the TBM tunneling in rock and soil is changing damaged or worn cutters. It is because that the cutter change is a time-consuming and costly activity that can significantly reduce the TBM utilization and advance rate and has a major effect on the total time and cost of TBM tunneling projects. Therefore, the importance of accurately evaluating the cutter life can never be overemphasized. However, the prediction of cutter wear in soil, rock including mixed face is very complex and not yet fully clarified, subsequently keeping engineers busy around the world. Various prediction models for cutter wear have been developed and introduced, but these models almost usually produce highly variable results due to inherent uncertainties in the models. In this study, a case study of design and construction of disc cutter change is introduced and analyzed, rather than proposing a prediction model of cutter wear. As the disc cutter is strongly affected by the geological condition, TBM machine characteristic and operation, authors believe it is very hard to suggest a generalized prediction model given the uncertainties and limitations therefore it would be more practical to analyze a real case and provide a detailed discussion of the difference between prediction and result for the cutter change. By doing so, up-to-date idea about planning and execution of cutter change in practice can be promoted.

Detection Range of Passive Sonar System in Range-Dependent Ocean Environment (거리의존 해양환경에서 수동소나체계의 표적탐지거리예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Hak;Kim, Jea-Soo
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 1997
  • The prediction of detection range of a passive sonar system is essential to estimate the performance and to optimize the operation of a developed sonar system. In this paper, a model for the prediction of detection range in a range-dependent ocean environment based on the sonar equation is developed and tested. The prediction model calculates the transmission loss using PE propagation model, signal excess, and the detection probability at each target depth and range. The detection probability is integrated to give the estimated detection range. In order to validate the developed model, two cases are considered. One is the case when target depth is known. The other is the case when the target depth is unknown. The computational results agree well with the previously published results for the range-independent environment. Also,the developed model is applied to the range-dependent ocean environment where the warm eddy exists. The computational results are shown and discussed. The developed model can be used to find the optimal frequency of detection, as well as the optimal search depth for the given range-dependent ocean environment.

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Developing a Model for Predicting Success of Machine Learning based Health Consulting (머신러닝 기반 건강컨설팅 성공여부 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Sang Ho;Song, Tae-Min
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2018
  • This study developed a prediction model using machine learning technology and predicted the success of health consulting by using life log data generated through u-Health service. The model index of the Random Forest model was the highest using. As a result of analyzing the Random Forest model, blood pressure was the most influential factor in the success or failure of metabolic syndrome in the subjects of u-Health service, followed by triglycerides, body weight, blood sugar, high cholesterol, and medication appear. muscular, basal metabolic rate and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were increased; waist circumference, Blood sugar and triglyceride were decreased. Further, biometrics and health behavior improved. After nine months of u-health services, the number of subjects with four or more factors for metabolic syndrome decreased by 28.6%; 3.7% of regular drinkers stopped drinking; 23.2% of subjects who rarely exercised began to exercise twice a week or more; and 20.0% of smokers stopped smoking. If the predictive model developed in this study is linked with CBR, it can be used as case study data of CBR with high probability of success in the prediction model to improve the compliance of the subject and to improve the qualitative effect of counseling for the improvement of the metabolic syndrome.

Performance Comparison of GPS Fault Detection and Isolation via Pseudorange Prediction Model based Test Statistics

  • Yoo, Jang-Sik;Ahn, Jong-Sun;Lee, Young-Jae;Sung, Sang-Kyung
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.797-806
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    • 2012
  • Fault detection and isolation (FDI) algorithms provide fault monitoring methods in GPS measurement to isolate abnormal signals from the GPS satellites or the acquired signal in receiver. In order to monitor the occurred faults, FDI generates test statistics and decides the case that is beyond a designed threshold as a fault. For such problem of fault detection and isolation, this paper presents and evaluates position domain integrity monitoring methods by formulating various pseudorange prediction methods and investigating the resulting test statistics. In particular, precise measurements like carrier phase and Doppler rate are employed under the assumption of fault free carrier signal. The presented position domain algorithm contains the following process; first a common pseudorange prediction formula is defined with the proposed variations in pseudorange differential update. Next, a threshold computation is proposed with the test statistics distribution considering the elevation angle. Then, by examining the test statistics, fault detection and isolation is done for each satellite channel. To verify the performance, simulations using the presented fault detection methods are done for an ideal and real fault case, respectively.

Sequential and Selective Recovery Mechanism for Value Misprediction (값 예측 오류를 위한 순차적이고 선택적인 복구 방식)

  • 이상정;전병찬
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.31 no.1_2
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2004
  • Value prediction is a technique to obtain performance gains by supplying earlier source values of its data dependent instructions using predicted value of a instruction. To fully exploit the potential of value speculation, however, the efficient recovery mechanism is necessary in case of value misprediction. In this paper, we propose a sequential and selective recovery mechanism for value misprediction. It searches data dependency chain of the mispredicted instruction sequentially without pipeline stalls and adverse impact on clock cycle time. In our scheme, only the dependent instructions on the predicted instruction is selectively squashed and reissued in case of value misprediction.

Prediction of Concentration Decay of Volatile Organic Compounds from Ondol Floor and Furniture (주택에 설치한 온돌 마루 및 붙박이 가구에서 발생하는 휘발성유기화합물의 농도 감소 예측)

  • Cho, Hyun;Pang, Seung-Ki;Baik, Yong-Kyu;Sohn, Jang-Yeul
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2005
  • In this study, time-dependent concentration variations of VOCs from fixed furniture and Ondol floor widely used as finishing material of the floor were measured, and prediction equations were developed based on the measured results. VOCs were measured and analyzed based on EPA TO-17 and NIOSH 1500, 1501 method respectively, and GC/FID were used for the analysis of VOCs concentration. Measurements were carried out for 10 days after the installation of furniture and for 40 days after the installation of the floor in the residence constructed more than 10 years ago. In both case of floor and furniture installation, time-dependent concentration decay of VOCs can be properly converted into logarithmic scale. Especially in case of furniture, toluene showed the highest concentration and took longest time to decay. As a result of the prediction of VOCs concentration decay under different air change rate using estimated equations, concentration decay rate of indoor VOCs increased rapidly as the air change rate also increased.

Prediction of visual search performance under multi-parameter monitoring condition using an artificial neural network (뉴럴네트?을 이용한 다변수 관측작업의 평균탐색시간 예측)

  • 박성준;정의승
    • Proceedings of the ESK Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.124-132
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    • 1993
  • This study compared two prediction methods-regression and artificial neural network (ANN) on the visual search performance when monitoring a multi-parameter screen with different occurrence frequencies. Under the highlighting condition for the highest occurrence frequency parameter as a search cue, it was found from the requression analysis that variations of mean search time (MST) could be expained almost by three factors such as the number of parameters, the target occurrence frequency of a highlighted parameter, and the highlighted parameter size. In this study, prediction performance of ANN was evaluated as an alternative to regression method. Backpropagation method which was commonly used as a pattern associator was employed to learn a search behavior of subjects. For the case of increased number of parameters and incresed target occurrence frequency of a highlighted parameter, ANN predicted MST's moreaccurately than the regression method (p<0.000). Only the MST's predicted by ANN did not statistically differ from the true MST's. For the case of increased highlighted parameter size. both methods failed to predict MST's accurately, but the differences from the true MST were smaller when predicted by ANN than by regression model (p=0.0005). This study shows that ANN is a good predictor of a visual search performance and can substitute the regression method under certain circumstances.

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