• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.863-874
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• 2021

In this paper, we propose a post-selection inference procedure for the fused lasso signal approximator (FLSA). The FLSA finds underlying sparse piecewise constant mean structure by applying total variation (TV) semi-norm as a penalty term. However, it is widely known that this convex relaxation can cause asymptotic inconsistency in change points detection. As a result, there can remain false change points even though we try to find the best subset of change points via a tuning procedure. To remove these false change points, we propose a post-selection inference for the FLSA. The proposed procedure applies a permutation test based on CUSUM statistic. Our post-selection inference procedure is an extension of the permutation test of Antoch and Hušková (2001) which deals with single change point problems, to multiple change points detection problems in combination with the FLSA. Numerical study results show that the proposed procedure is better than naïve z-tests and tests based on the limiting distribution of CUSUM statistics.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.11-16
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• 2007

Since the seminal work of Engle (1982), many researchers and practitioners have developed ARCH-type models to deal with volatility modelling, which, for instance, is crucial to perform the task of derivative pricing, measuring risk, and risk hedging. In this paper, we base the GARCH(1,1) model to analyze the KOSPI200 data, and perform the CUSUM test for detecting parameter changes in the GARCH model. It is shown that the data suffers from a parameter change.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.547-554
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• 2010

In this paper, we extend the work by Lee et al. (2010) to multidimensional di usion processes. A test statistic analogous to the one-dimensional case is proposed to inves-tigate the joint stability of covariance matrix parameters and, under certain regularity conditions, is shown to have a limiting distribution of the sup of a multidimensional Brownian bridge. A simulation result is provided for illustration.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.417-427
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• 1997

In this paper the parameter change problem in the stationary time series is considered. We propose a cumulative sum (CUSUM) of squares-type test statistic for detection of parameter changes in the AR(1) process. The proposed test statistic is based on the CUSIM of the squared observations and is shown to converge to a standard Brownian bridge. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed statistic and a real example is provided to illustrate the procedure.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.163-175
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• 2020

We consider a wide class of general weakly-dependent processes, called ψ-weak dependence, which unify almost all weak dependence structures of interest found in statistics under natural conditions on process parameters, such as mixing, association, Bernoulli shifts, and Markovian sequences. For detecting the tail behavior of the weakly dependent processes, change point tests are developed by means of cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistics with the empirical distribution functions of sample extremes. The null limiting distribution is established as a Brownian bridge. Its proof is based on the ψ-weak dependence structure and the existence of the phantom distribution function of stationary weakly-dependent processes. A Monte-Carlo study is conducted to see the performance of sizes and powers of the CUSUM tests in GARCH(1, 1) models; in addition, real data applications are given with log-returns of financial data such as the Korean stock price index.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.803-809
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• 2011

Properties of multivariate Shewhart and CUSUM charts for monitoring variance-covariance matrix, specially focused on correlation coefficient components, are investigated. The performances of the proposed charts based on control statistic Lawley-Hotelling $V_i$ and likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistic $TV_i$ are evaluated in terms of average run length (ARL). For monitoring correlation coe cient components of dispersion matrix, we found that CUSUM chart based on $TV_i$ gives relatively better performances and is more preferable, and the charts based on $V_i$ perform badly and are not recommended.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.503-522
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• 2015

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in nonlinear time series models with GARCH type errors. We introduce two types of cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests: estimates-based and residual-based tests. It is shown that under regularity conditions, their limiting null distributions are the sup of independent Brownian bridges. A simulation study is conducted for illustration.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.89-102
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• 1994

A new method for approximating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is proposed. This method uses the conditional expectation for the test statistic before the stopping time and its asymptotic conditional density function. The values obtained by this method are compared with some other methods in normal and exponential case.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.51-57
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• 2010

Steganography techniques can be used to hide data within digital images with little or no visible change in the perceived appearance of the image. I propose a steganalysis to detecting hidden message in sequential steganography. This paper presents adjusted technique for detecting abrupt jumps in the statistics of the stego signal during steganalysis. The repeated statistical test based on CUSUM-SPRT runs constantly until it reaches decision. In this paper, I deal with a new and improved statistic $g_t$ by computing $S^{t^*}_j$.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1551-1559
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• 2013

In this paper, we analyze the Korean Won/Japanese 100 Yen exchange rate data based on the ARMA-GARCH model, and perform the test for detecting the parameter changes. As a test statistics, we employ the cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for ARMA-GARCH model, which is introduced by Lee and Song (2008). Our empirical analysis indicates that the KRW/JPY exchange rate series experienced several parameter changes during the period from January 2000 to December 2012, which leads to a fitting of AR-IGARCH model to the whole series.