Spatial effect on the diffusion of discount stores (대형할인점 확산에 대한 공간적 영향)
- Joo, Young-Jin;Kim, Mi-Ae
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- Journal of Distribution Research
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- v.15 no.4
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- pp.61-85
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- 2010
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Introduction: Diffusion is process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channel overtime among the members of a social system(Rogers 1983). Bass(1969) suggested the Bass model describing diffusion process. The Bass model assumes potential adopters of innovation are influenced by mass-media and word-of-mouth from communication with previous adopters. Various expansions of the Bass model have been conducted. Some of them proposed a third factor affecting diffusion. Others proposed multinational diffusion model and it stressed interactive effect on diffusion among several countries. We add a spatial factor in the Bass model as a third communication factor. Because of situation where we can not control the interaction between markets, we need to consider that diffusion within certain market can be influenced by diffusion in contiguous market. The process that certain type of retail extends is a result that particular market can be described by the retail life cycle. Diffusion of retail has pattern following three phases of spatial diffusion: adoption of innovation happens in near the diffusion center first, spreads to the vicinity of the diffusing center and then adoption of innovation is completed in peripheral areas in saturation stage. So we expect spatial effect to be important to describe diffusion of domestic discount store. We define a spatial diffusion model using multinational diffusion model and apply it to the diffusion of discount store. Modeling: In this paper, we define a spatial diffusion model and apply it to the diffusion of discount store. To define a spatial diffusion model, we expand learning model(Kumar and Krishnan 2002) and separate diffusion process in diffusion center(market A) from diffusion process in the vicinity of the diffusing center(market B). The proposed spatial diffusion model is shown in equation (1a) and (1b). Equation (1a) is the diffusion process in diffusion center and equation (1b) is one in the vicinity of the diffusing center.
$$\array{{S_{i,t}=(p_i+q_i{\frac{Y_{i,t-1}}{m_i}})(m_i-Y_{i,t-1})\;i{\in}\{1,{\cdots},I\}\;(1a)}\\{S_{j,t}=(p_j+q_j{\frac{Y_{j,t-1}}{m_i}}+{\sum\limits_{i=1}^I}{\gamma}_{ij}{\frac{Y_{i,t-1}}{m_i}})(m_j-Y_{j,t-1})\;i{\in}\{1,{\cdots},I\},\;j{\in}\{I+1,{\cdots},I+J\}\;(1b)}}$$ We rise two research questions. (1) The proposed spatial diffusion model is more effective than the Bass model to describe the diffusion of discount stores. (2) The more similar retail environment of diffusing center with that of the vicinity of the contiguous market is, the larger spatial effect of diffusing center on diffusion of the vicinity of the contiguous market is. To examine above two questions, we adopt the Bass model to estimate diffusion of discount store first. Next spatial diffusion model where spatial factor is added to the Bass model is used to estimate it. Finally by comparing Bass model with spatial diffusion model, we try to find out which model describes diffusion of discount store better. In addition, we investigate the relationship between similarity of retail environment(conceptual distance) and spatial factor impact with correlation analysis. Result and Implication: We suggest spatial diffusion model to describe diffusion of discount stores. To examine the proposed spatial diffusion model, 347 domestic discount stores are used and we divide nation into 5 districts, Seoul-Gyeongin(SG), Busan-Gyeongnam(BG), Daegu-Gyeongbuk(DG), Gwan- gju-Jeonla(GJ), Daejeon-Chungcheong(DC), and the result is shown. In a result of the Bass model(I), the estimates of innovation coefficient(p) and imitation coefficient(q) are 0.017 and 0.323 respectively. While the estimate of market potential is 384. A result of the Bass model(II) for each district shows the estimates of innovation coefficient(p) in SG is 0.019 and the lowest among 5 areas. This is because SG is the diffusion center. The estimates of imitation coefficient(q) in BG is 0.353 and the highest. The imitation coefficient in the vicinity of the diffusing center such as BG is higher than that in the diffusing center because much information flows through various paths more as diffusion is progressing. A result of the Bass model(II) shows the estimates of innovation coefficient(p) in SG is 0.019 and the lowest among 5 areas. This is because SG is the diffusion center. The estimates of imitation coefficient(q) in BG is 0.353 and the highest. The imitation coefficient in the vicinity of the diffusing center such as BG is higher than that in the diffusing center because much information flows through various paths more as diffusion is progressing. In a result of spatial diffusion model(IV), we can notice the changes between coefficients of the bass model and those of the spatial diffusion model. Except for GJ, the estimates of innovation and imitation coefficients in Model IV are lower than those in Model II. The changes of innovation and imitation coefficients are reflected to spatial coefficient(
${\gamma}$ ). From spatial coefficient(${\gamma}$ ) we can infer that when the diffusion in the vicinity of the diffusing center occurs, the diffusion is influenced by one in the diffusing center. The difference between the Bass model(II) and the spatial diffusion model(IV) is statistically significant with the${\chi}^2$ -distributed likelihood ratio statistic is 16.598(p=0.0023). Which implies that the spatial diffusion model is more effective than the Bass model to describe diffusion of discount stores. So the research question (1) is supported. In addition, we found that there are statistically significant relationship between similarity of retail environment and spatial effect by using correlation analysis. So the research question (2) is also supported.Personalized Recommendation System for IPTV using Ontology and K-medoids (IPTV환경에서 온톨로지와 k-medoids기법을 이용한 개인화 시스템)
- Yun, Byeong-Dae;Kim, Jong-Woo;Cho, Yong-Seok;Kang, Sang-Gil
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.16 no.3
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- pp.147-161
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- 2010
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As broadcasting and communication are converged recently, communication is jointed to TV. TV viewing has brought about many changes. The IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) provides information service, movie contents, broadcast, etc. through internet with live programs + VOD (Video on demand) jointed. Using communication network, it becomes an issue of new business. In addition, new technical issues have been created by imaging technology for the service, networking technology without video cuts, security technologies to protect copyright, etc. Through this IPTV network, users can watch their desired programs when they want. However, IPTV has difficulties in search approach, menu approach, or finding programs. Menu approach spends a lot of time in approaching programs desired. Search approach can't be found when title, genre, name of actors, etc. are not known. In addition, inserting letters through remote control have problems. However, the bigger problem is that many times users are not usually ware of the services they use. Thus, to resolve difficulties when selecting VOD service in IPTV, a personalized service is recommended, which enhance users' satisfaction and use your time, efficiently. This paper provides appropriate programs which are fit to individuals not to save time in order to solve IPTV's shortcomings through filtering and recommendation-related system. The proposed recommendation system collects TV program information, the user's preferred program genres and detailed genre, channel, watching program, and information on viewing time based on individual records of watching IPTV. To look for these kinds of similarities, similarities can be compared by using ontology for TV programs. The reason to use these is because the distance of program can be measured by the similarity comparison. TV program ontology we are using is one extracted from TV-Anytime metadata which represents semantic nature. Also, ontology expresses the contents and features in figures. Through world net, vocabulary similarity is determined. All the words described on the programs are expanded into upper and lower classes for word similarity decision. The average of described key words was measured. The criterion of distance calculated ties similar programs through K-medoids dividing method. K-medoids dividing method is a dividing way to divide classified groups into ones with similar characteristics. This K-medoids method sets K-unit representative objects. Here, distance from representative object sets temporary distance and colonize it. Through algorithm, when the initial n-unit objects are tried to be divided into K-units. The optimal object must be found through repeated trials after selecting representative object temporarily. Through this course, similar programs must be colonized. Selecting programs through group analysis, weight should be given to the recommendation. The way to provide weight with recommendation is as the follows. When each group recommends programs, similar programs near representative objects will be recommended to users. The formula to calculate the distance is same as measure similar distance. It will be a basic figure which determines the rankings of recommended programs. Weight is used to calculate the number of watching lists. As the more programs are, the higher weight will be loaded. This is defined as cluster weight. Through this, sub-TV programs which are representative of the groups must be selected. The final TV programs ranks must be determined. However, the group-representative TV programs include errors. Therefore, weights must be added to TV program viewing preference. They must determine the finalranks.Based on this, our customers prefer proposed to recommend contents. So, based on the proposed method this paper suggested, experiment was carried out in controlled environment. Through experiment, the superiority of the proposed method is shown, compared to existing ways.
Resolving the 'Gray sheep' Problem Using Social Network Analysis (SNA) in Collaborative Filtering (CF) Recommender Systems (소셜 네트워크 분석 기법을 활용한 협업필터링의 특이취향 사용자(Gray Sheep) 문제 해결)
- Kim, Minsung;Im, Il
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.20 no.2
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- pp.137-148
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- 2014
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Recommender system has become one of the most important technologies in e-commerce in these days. The ultimate reason to shop online, for many consumers, is to reduce the efforts for information search and purchase. Recommender system is a key technology to serve these needs. Many of the past studies about recommender systems have been devoted to developing and improving recommendation algorithms and collaborative filtering (CF) is known to be the most successful one. Despite its success, however, CF has several shortcomings such as cold-start, sparsity, gray sheep problems. In order to be able to generate recommendations, ordinary CF algorithms require evaluations or preference information directly from users. For new users who do not have any evaluations or preference information, therefore, CF cannot come up with recommendations (Cold-star problem). As the numbers of products and customers increase, the scale of the data increases exponentially and most of the data cells are empty. This sparse dataset makes computation for recommendation extremely hard (Sparsity problem). Since CF is based on the assumption that there are groups of users sharing common preferences or tastes, CF becomes inaccurate if there are many users with rare and unique tastes (Gray sheep problem). This study proposes a new algorithm that utilizes Social Network Analysis (SNA) techniques to resolve the gray sheep problem. We utilize 'degree centrality' in SNA to identify users with unique preferences (gray sheep). Degree centrality in SNA refers to the number of direct links to and from a node. In a network of users who are connected through common preferences or tastes, those with unique tastes have fewer links to other users (nodes) and they are isolated from other users. Therefore, gray sheep can be identified by calculating degree centrality of each node. We divide the dataset into two, gray sheep and others, based on the degree centrality of the users. Then, different similarity measures and recommendation methods are applied to these two datasets. More detail algorithm is as follows: Step 1: Convert the initial data which is a two-mode network (user to item) into an one-mode network (user to user). Step 2: Calculate degree centrality of each node and separate those nodes having degree centrality values lower than the pre-set threshold. The threshold value is determined by simulations such that the accuracy of CF for the remaining dataset is maximized. Step 3: Ordinary CF algorithm is applied to the remaining dataset. Step 4: Since the separated dataset consist of users with unique tastes, an ordinary CF algorithm cannot generate recommendations for them. A 'popular item' method is used to generate recommendations for these users. The F measures of the two datasets are weighted by the numbers of nodes and summed to be used as the final performance metric. In order to test performance improvement by this new algorithm, an empirical study was conducted using a publically available dataset - the MovieLens data by GroupLens research team. We used 100,000 evaluations by 943 users on 1,682 movies. The proposed algorithm was compared with an ordinary CF algorithm utilizing 'Best-N-neighbors' and 'Cosine' similarity method. The empirical results show that F measure was improved about 11% on average when the proposed algorithm was used
. Past studies to improve CF performance typically used additional information other than users' evaluations such as demographic data. Some studies applied SNA techniques as a new similarity metric. This study is novel in that it used SNA to separate dataset. This study shows that performance of CF can be improved, without any additional information, when SNA techniques are used as proposed. This study has several theoretical and practical implications. This study empirically shows that the characteristics of dataset can affect the performance of CF recommender systems. This helps researchers understand factors affecting performance of CF. This study also opens a door for future studies in the area of applying SNA to CF to analyze characteristics of dataset. In practice, this study provides guidelines to improve performance of CF recommender systems with a simple modification.
Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)
- Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.18 no.4
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- pp.59-77
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- 2012
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This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.
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