• Title/Summary/Keyword: Business contribution

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Electronic Word-of-Mouth in B2C Virtual Communities: An Empirical Study from CTrip.com (B2C허의사구중적전자구비(B2C虚拟社区中的电子口碑): 관우휴정려유망적실증연구(关于携程旅游网的实证研究))

  • Li, Guoxin;Elliot, Statia;Choi, Chris
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.262-268
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    • 2010
  • Virtual communities (VCs) have developed rapidly, with more and more people participating in them to exchange information and opinions. A virtual community is a group of people who may or may not meet one another face to face, and who exchange words and ideas through the mediation of computer bulletin boards and networks. A business-to-consumer virtual community (B2CVC) is a commercial group that creates a trustworthy environment intended to motivate consumers to be more willing to buy from an online store. B2CVCs create a social atmosphere through information contribution such as recommendations, reviews, and ratings of buyers and sellers. Although the importance of B2CVCs has been recognized, few studies have been conducted to examine members' word-of-mouth behavior within these communities. This study proposes a model of involvement, statistics, trust, "stickiness," and word-of-mouth in a B2CVC and explores the relationships among these elements based on empirical data. The objectives are threefold: (i) to empirically test a B2CVC model that integrates measures of beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors; (ii) to better understand the nature of these relationships, specifically through word-of-mouth as a measure of revenue generation; and (iii) to better understand the role of stickiness of B2CVC in CRM marketing. The model incorporates three key elements concerning community members: (i) their beliefs, measured in terms of their involvement assessment; (ii) their attitudes, measured in terms of their satisfaction and trust; and, (iii) their behavior, measured in terms of site stickiness and their word-of-mouth. Involvement is considered the motivation for consumers to participate in a virtual community. For B2CVC members, information searching and posting have been proposed as the main purpose for their involvement. Satisfaction has been reviewed as an important indicator of a member's overall community evaluation, and conceptualized by different levels of member interactions with their VC. The formation and expansion of a VC depends on the willingness of members to share information and services. Researchers have found that trust is a core component facilitating the anonymous interaction in VCs and e-commerce, and therefore trust-building in VCs has been a common research topic. It is clear that the success of a B2CVC depends on the stickiness of its members to enhance purchasing potential. Opinions communicated and information exchanged between members may represent a type of written word-of-mouth. Therefore, word-of-mouth is one of the primary factors driving the diffusion of B2CVCs across the Internet. Figure 1 presents the research model and hypotheses. The model was tested through the implementation of an online survey of CTrip Travel VC members. A total of 243 collected questionnaires was reduced to 204 usable questionnaires through an empirical process of data cleaning. The study's hypotheses examined the extent to which involvement, satisfaction, and trust influence B2CVC stickiness and members' word-of-mouth. Structural Equation Modeling tested the hypotheses in the analysis, and the structural model fit indices were within accepted thresholds: ${\chi}^2^$/df was 2.76, NFI was .904, IFI was .931, CFI was .930, and RMSEA was .017. Results indicated that involvement has a significant influence on satisfaction (p<0.001, ${\beta}$=0.809). The proportion of variance in satisfaction explained by members' involvement was over half (adjusted $R^2$=0.654), reflecting a strong association. The effect of involvement on trust was also statistically significant (p<0.001, ${\beta}$=0.751), with 57 percent of the variance in trust explained by involvement (adjusted $R^2$=0.563). When the construct "stickiness" was treated as a dependent variable, the proportion of variance explained by the variables of trust and satisfaction was relatively low (adjusted $R^2$=0.331). Satisfaction did have a significant influence on stickiness, with ${\beta}$=0.514. However, unexpectedly, the influence of trust was not even significant (p=0.231, t=1.197), rejecting that proposed hypothesis. The importance of stickiness in the model was more significant because of its effect on e-WOM with ${\beta}$=0.920 (p<0.001). Here, the measures of Stickiness explain over eighty of the variance in e-WOM (Adjusted $R^2$=0.846). Overall, the results of the study supported the hypothesized relationships between members' involvement in a B2CVC and their satisfaction with and trust of it. However, trust, as a traditional measure in behavioral models, has no significant influence on stickiness in the B2CVC environment. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on B2CVCs, specifically addressing gaps in the academic research by integrating measures of beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors in one model. The results provide additional insights to behavioral factors in a B2CVC environment, helping to sort out relationships between traditional measures and relatively new measures. For practitioners, the identification of factors, such as member involvement, that strongly influence B2CVC member satisfaction can help focus technological resources in key areas. Global e-marketers can develop marketing strategies directly targeting B2CVC members. In the global tourism business, they can target Chinese members of a B2CVC by providing special discounts for active community members or developing early adopter programs to encourage stickiness in the community. Future studies are called for, and more sophisticated modeling, to expand the measurement of B2CVC member behavior and to conduct experiments across industries, communities, and cultures.

A Study on the Application of Block Chain Technology on EVMS (EVMS 업무의 블록체인 기술 적용 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Il-Han;Kwon, Sun-Dong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.39-60
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    • 2020
  • Block chain technology is one of the core elements for realizing the 4th industrial revolution, and many efforts have been made by government and companies to provide services based on block chain technology. In this study we analyzed the benefits of block chain technology for EVMS and designed EVMS block chain platform with increased data security and work efficiency for project management data, which are important assets in monitoring progress, foreseeing future events, and managing post-completion. We did the case studies on the benefits of block chain technology and then conducted the survey study on security, reliability, and efficiency of block chain technology, targeting 18 block chain experts and project developers. And then, we interviewed EVMS system operator on the compatibility between block chain technology and EVM Systems. The result of the case studies showed that block chain technology can be applied to financial, logistic, medical, and public services to simplify the insurance claim process and to improve reliability by distributing transaction data storage and applying security·encryption features. Also, our research on the characteristics and necessity of block chain technology in EVMS revealed the improvability of security, reliability, and efficiency of management and distribution of EVMS data. Finally, we designed a network model, a block structure, and a consensus algorithm model and combined them to construct a conceptual block chain model for EVM system. This study has the following contribution. First, we reviewed that the block chain technology is suitable for application in the defense sector and proposed a conceptual model. Second, the effect that can be obtained by applying block chain technology to EVMS was derived, and the possibility of improving the existing business process was derived.

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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Recommending Core and Connecting Keywords of Research Area Using Social Network and Data Mining Techniques (소셜 네트워크와 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 학문 분야 중심 및 융합 키워드 추천 서비스)

  • Cho, In-Dong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.127-138
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    • 2011
  • The core service of most research portal sites is providing relevant research papers to various researchers that match their research interests. This kind of service may only be effective and easy to use when a user can provide correct and concrete information about a paper such as the title, authors, and keywords. However, unfortunately, most users of this service are not acquainted with concrete bibliographic information. It implies that most users inevitably experience repeated trial and error attempts of keyword-based search. Especially, retrieving a relevant research paper is more difficult when a user is novice in the research domain and does not know appropriate keywords. In this case, a user should perform iterative searches as follows : i) perform an initial search with an arbitrary keyword, ii) acquire related keywords from the retrieved papers, and iii) perform another search again with the acquired keywords. This usage pattern implies that the level of service quality and user satisfaction of a portal site are strongly affected by the level of keyword management and searching mechanism. To overcome this kind of inefficiency, some leading research portal sites adopt the association rule mining-based keyword recommendation service that is similar to the product recommendation of online shopping malls. However, keyword recommendation only based on association analysis has limitation that it can show only a simple and direct relationship between two keywords. In other words, the association analysis itself is unable to present the complex relationships among many keywords in some adjacent research areas. To overcome this limitation, we propose the hybrid approach for establishing association network among keywords used in research papers. The keyword association network can be established by the following phases : i) a set of keywords specified in a certain paper are regarded as co-purchased items, ii) perform association analysis for the keywords and extract frequent patterns of keywords that satisfy predefined thresholds of confidence, support, and lift, and iii) schematize the frequent keyword patterns as a network to show the core keywords of each research area and connecting keywords among two or more research areas. To estimate the practical application of our approach, we performed a simple experiment with 600 keywords. The keywords are extracted from 131 research papers published in five prominent Korean journals in 2009. In the experiment, we used the SAS Enterprise Miner for association analysis and the R software for social network analysis. As the final outcome, we presented a network diagram and a cluster dendrogram for the keyword association network. We summarized the results in Section 4 of this paper. The main contribution of our proposed approach can be found in the following aspects : i) the keyword network can provide an initial roadmap of a research area to researchers who are novice in the domain, ii) a researcher can grasp the distribution of many keywords neighboring to a certain keyword, and iii) researchers can get some idea for converging different research areas by observing connecting keywords in the keyword association network. Further studies should include the following. First, the current version of our approach does not implement a standard meta-dictionary. For practical use, homonyms, synonyms, and multilingual problems should be resolved with a standard meta-dictionary. Additionally, more clear guidelines for clustering research areas and defining core and connecting keywords should be provided. Finally, intensive experiments not only on Korean research papers but also on international papers should be performed in further studies.

Structural Relationships among Site Quality of Online Wine Store, Perceived Value, and Online Purchase Intention (온라인 와인매장 사이트 품질, 지각된 가치, 온라인 구매의도 간의 구조적 관계)

  • Han, Su-Jin;Kim, Yoo-Jung;Kang, Sora
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.6133-6145
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    • 2013
  • With the increasing number of online wine stores, customers are increasingly seeking to purchase wine online. On the other hand, purchasing wine online is prohibited by law or regulation in Korea. Therefore, customers mainly search for wine information, inquire about wine products, and make a pre-purchase at an online wine store. Online wine stores play important roles in customer's purchase decision-making, and are likely to be a useful wine distribution channel in the near future. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify the determinants of the online wine purchase intention, and examine the structural relationships between the determinants and online wine purchase intention. The site quality of online wine stores (information quality, system quality, service quality), and perceived value (quality value, price value, emotional value, social value) were selected as the determinants of online wine purchase intention based on literature review. The data was collected from those who had experience using an online wine store to purchase wine, and the data was used to test the proposed research model. The findings showed that the information quality was not related to the perceived value (quality value, price value, emotional value, social value). The system quality was proven to be positively and significantly related to the quality value, price value, and emotional value, whereas it had no impact on the social value. In addition, the service quality was found to affect the perceived value (quality value, price value, emotional and social value). Finally, the results showed that the quality value, emotional value, and social value have a positive impact on the online wine purchase intention, whereas the price quality is not related to the online wine purchase intention. These results are expected to make a contribution to a better understanding of how the quality of online wine stores and the customer's perceived value affect the online wine purchasing intention.

Optimal Incentives for Customer Satisfaction in Multi-channel Setting (멀티채널에서의 고객만족제고 인센티브 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.25-47
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    • 2010
  • CS is one of the major concerns of managers in the world because it is well known to be a key medium construct for firms' superior outcome. One of the major agents for CS management is retailers. Firms try to manage not only employees but also retailers to promote CS behaviors. And so diverse incentives are used to promote their CS behaviors under diverse channel setting such as multi-channel. However in spite of the rising needs there has been scarce studies on the optimal incentive structure for a manufacturer to offer competing retailers at the multi-channel. In this paper, we try to find better way for a manufacturer to promote the competing retailers' CS behaviors. We investigated how to promote the retailers' CS behavior via game-theoretic modeling. Especially, we focus on the possible incentive, CS bonus type reward introduced in the studies of Hauser, Simester, and Wernerfelt(1994) and Chu and Desai(1995). We build up a multi stage complete information game and derive a subgame perfect equilibrium using backward induction. Stages of the game are as following. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price(w) and CS bonus($\eta$). (Stage 2) Both retailers in competition set CS effort level($e_i$) and retail price($p_i$) simultaneously. (Stage 3) Consumers make purchasing decisions based on the manufacturer's initial reputation and retailers' CS efforts.

    Structure of the Model We investigated four issues about the topic as following: (1) How much total incentive is adequate for a firm of a specific level of reputation to promote retailers' CS behavior under multi-channel setting ?, (2) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of complimentary externalities between the retailers' CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (3) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of cost to make CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (4) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of competition between retailers to promote retailers' CS behavior? Our findings are as following. (1) The higher reputation has the manufacturer, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the manufacturer's reputation level(a) under some parameter conditions(b=1/2;c=0;$\beta$=1/2). (2) The bigger complimentary externalities exists between the retailers' CS efforts, the higher incentives are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the complimentary externalities level($\beta$) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;c=0). (3) The higher is the retailers' cost, the lower incentives are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the decreasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the cost level(c) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;$\beta$=1/2). (4) The more competitive gets those two retailers, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the competition level(b) under some parameter conditions(c=0;a=1;$\beta$=1/2). One of the major contribution points of this study is the fact that this study is the first to investigate the optimal CS incentive system under multi-channel setting.

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A Study on the Locational Decision Factors of Discount Stores : The Case of Cheonan (종합슈퍼마켓의 입지 결정 요인에 관한 연구 : 천안상권을 중심으로)

  • So, Jang-Hoon;Hwang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we investigate several factors that affect the locational decision of discount stores by using previous studies on the marketing area and the location of commercial facilities. We selected 21 primary variables that are expected to influence the decision of store location and, by factor analysis, grouped them into five underlying factors. Among these, the demographic factor, which shows the potential purchasing power level, had the greatest impact on the locational decision for the store. However, we found individual stores positioned according to unique locational characteristics in addition to the demographic factor. It means that we have to additionally consider if the vicinity of the market is based on any physical properties. Many previous studies proposed four decision factors for store location: the economic factor, the demographic factor, the land utilization factor, and traffic factor. However, the fivefold factors-our distinctive contribution-are more concrete and persuasive according to Korean reality. We show that location preference is based on the following criteria: (1) the area is densely populated, (2) houses stand close together, (3) residents have a high income level, (4) road traffic is developed and easy to access, and (5) public transportation is well developed. The demographic factor has the greatest impact on the location of a discount store. The number of households has a greater relevance to the demographic factor than does the individual consumer. Second, discount stores relatively prefer places where houses are located close together because such places offer easy access to the market. Third, a place whose residents have a high income level will be preferred, with its large cars and excellent traffic conditions. Fourth, a location would be highly rated if the roads around commercial facilities are well developed and their accessibility is good. Finally, discount stores must be located close to bus stops because female consumers, including housewives-the most important customers-evaluate stores based on distance. In this research, the variable of consumer attitude and preference was excluded, and the location factors of discount stores were analyzed according to a microscopic view through physical spatial data. In the future, the opening of new discount stores based on the five factors indicated above will require a comparatively shorter time from the first project feasibility analysis. In addition, the result of our study can be applied to the field of public policy for constructing and attracting large-scale distribution facilities.

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Prediction of commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvements according to the styles of loving using a datamining technique (데이터마이닝을 활용한 사랑의 형태에 따른 연인관계 몰입수준 및 관계 지속여부 예측)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.69-85
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    • 2016
  • Successful relationship with loving partners is one of the most important factors in life. In psychology, there have been some previous researches studying the factors influencing romantic relationships. However, most of these researches were performed based on statistical analysis; thus they have limitations in analyzing complex non-linear relationships or rules based reasoning. This research analyzes commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvement according to styles of loving using a datamining technique as well as statistical methods. In this research, we consider six different styles of loving - 'eros', 'ludus', 'stroge', 'pragma', 'mania' and 'agape' which influence romantic relationships between lovers, besides the factors suggested by the previous researches. These six types of love are defined by Lee (1977) as follows: 'eros' is romantic, passionate love; 'ludus' is a game-playing or uncommitted love; 'storge' is a slow developing, friendship-based love; 'pragma' is a pragmatic, practical, mutually beneficial relationship; 'mania' is an obsessive or possessive love and, lastly, 'agape' is a gentle, caring, giving type of love, brotherly love, not concerned with the self. In order to do this research, data from 105 heterosexual couples were collected. Using the data, a linear regression method was first performed to find out the important factors associated with a commitment to partners. The result shows that 'satisfaction', 'eros' and 'agape' are significant factors associated with the commitment level for both male and female. Interestingly, in male cases, 'agape' has a greater effect on commitment than 'eros'. On the other hand, in female cases, 'eros' is a more significant factor than 'agape' to commitment. In addition to that, 'investment' of the male is also crucial factor for male commitment. Next, decision tree analysis was performed to find out the characteristics of high commitment couples and low commitment couples. In order to build decision tree models in this experiment, 'decision tree' operator in the datamining tool, Rapid Miner was used. The experimental result shows that males having a high satisfaction level in relationship show a high commitment level. However, even though a male may not have a high satisfaction level, if he has made a lot of financial or mental investment in relationship, and his partner shows him a certain amount of 'agape', then he also shows a high commitment level to the female. In the case of female, a women having a high 'eros' and 'satisfaction' level shows a high commitment level. Otherwise, even though a female may not have a high satisfaction level, if her partner shows a certain amount of 'mania' then the female also shows a high commitment level. Finally, this research built a prediction model to establish whether the relationship will persist or break up using a decision tree. The result shows that the most important factor influencing to the break up is a 'narcissistic tendency' of the male. In addition to that, 'satisfaction', 'investment' and 'mania' of both male and female also affect a break up. Interestingly, while the 'mania' level of a male works positively to maintain the relationship, that of a female has a negative influence. The contribution of this research is adopting a new technique of analysis using a datamining method for psychology. In addition, the results of this research can provide useful advice to couples for building a harmonious relationship with each other. This research has several limitations. First, the experimental data was sampled based on oversampling technique to balance the size of each classes. Thus, it has a limitation of evaluating performances of the predictive models objectively. Second, the result data, whether the relationship persists of not, was collected relatively in short periods - 6 months after the initial data collection. Lastly, most of the respondents of the survey is in their 20's. In order to get more general results, we would like to extend this research to general populations.

The Policy of Park Asset Transfers in England: A Move toward Community Ownership and Park Management (커뮤니티의 공원 소유와 관리·운영 방안으로서 영국의 공원 커뮤니티자산이전 정책)

  • Kim, Yeun-Kum
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.108-119
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the ways in which individual communities own and manage parks have been both discussed and realized in America and England. Some benefits of these asset transfers are that local governments can reduce the financial cost of management as well as improve the service of the parks. In addition, communities can develop these parks as unique assets. Ultimately, this is a new understanding of parks as community commons. This study examines the policy of park asset transfers to communities in England. These transfers, which involve reallocating land and building management and/or ownership from the public sector to a community group, are part of a policy agenda known as "Big Society", which aims to create a "small government" within a "big society". The agenda is pursued by both the English Conservative and Unionist Party governments. Eight case studies of community park asset transfers in England were examined in this study, under three categories-transfer process, partnership among stakeholders, and financial structure-and synthesized along three issues-financial contribution, level of public transparency, and closeness of the relationship between park and community. In some cases, new community groups were created specifically to receive park assets, while in other communities, existing groups became the park trustees. For most parks, community groups raise park maintenance funding through diverse methods; however, these groups are often not entirely financially independent from local government. Thus, many park trustees have already created, or are planning to create, other assets from which parks can benefit. Second, some efforts for public transparency include trusts that are registered as charities, of which their public nature is admitted officially. These trusts resolve important decisions through boards of trustees, in an effort to promote income-generating business while not excluding users. Ultimately, a close relationship between park and community empowers the community to participate in managing and maintaining the park; in turn, the park's capacities are improved. Current struggles include the many limits involved in communities accepting ownership and management of a park, and a lack of local government experience regarding public-private management and maintenance of a public asset. This study, however, details interesting policy implications for Korean community involvement as well as diverse financial methods to facilitate park management.

An Analysis of IT Trends Using Tweet Data (트윗 데이터를 활용한 IT 트렌드 분석)

  • Yi, Jin Baek;Lee, Choong Kwon;Cha, Kyung Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.143-159
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    • 2015
  • Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.