• Title/Summary/Keyword: Business Forecasting

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Does the Geography Matter for Analysts' Forecasting Abilities and Stock Price Impacts? (기업 본사 소재지에 따른 애널리스트의 이익 예측능력 및 주가영향력 차이가 존재하는가?)

  • Kim, Dong-Soon;Eum, Seung-Sub
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2008
  • We empirically examined the forecasting abilities of analysts in the Korean stock market with regard to their earnings estimates, and the impacts of their reports on stock prices. Further, we also examine if there is any difference in analysts' forecasting accuracy and stock prices impacts depending upon the geographical distance between analysts and companies they follow. We found the following interesting empirical results. First, analysts have tendency to overestimate sales, operating income, and net income, consistent with the previous literature. Second, the degree of overestimation depends upon the geography of companies. That is, it is smaller for companies headquartered in Seoul than companies in local provinces. Third, analysts' earnings estimates are also more accurate for companies located in Seoul. So, we conjecture that analysts have easier access to the information for the companies. Fourth, when analysts downgrade target prices, companies in Seoul are less negatively affected than those in local provinces. Even when analysts revise downward stock recommendations, stock prices of companies in Seoul go up. Overall, analysts' price impacts are more favorable for Seoul-located companies. Last, but not least, when foreign ownership is higher, investors react less negatively to downward revisions of stock recommendation, but react more negatively to downward revisions of target prices.

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A Sensitivity Analysis for Risk Management of Commercial Buildings (상업건축물의 사업위험관리를 위한 민감도 분석 기법)

  • Kim, Sun-Kuk;Ryu, Sang-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2009
  • The global financial crisis resulting from sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States, beginning in 2007, has had dealt a blow to domestic economy. The economic downturn, coupled with a large number of apartments remaining unsold has resulted in contracted investment sentiment of the builders. Thus it's difficult to even implement the business, unless the investment project is thoroughly verified as well as the accurate profitability is granted. Viewing the current situation, forecasting and evaluating the business profitability is more than important today. The study was planned to identify the factors influencing the business success and to evaluate the sensitivity, relative risk of each factor was measured, and the scope of the study was limited to the commercial buildings among other buildings except apartment buildings. Hence, the study was aimed to analyze the factors affecting the business and the sensitivity so as to be able to systematically materialize the risk management of the commercial buildings. The outcome of the study is expected to serve the useful data in analyzing the business profitability and implementing the investment projects as well.

Luxury, sustainability and the future - The case study of Burberry -

  • Bae, Su Yun
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2019
  • Climate change and global warming are the biggest challenges of the current generation. Every industry has contributed to the climate change and global warming. Even the apparel industry cannot avoid the criticism regarding fast fashion and its contribution to the pollution. The transition to the decarbonized economy is in progress. All aspects of business functions are influenced by climate change. Sustainable development and climate change are closely linked, and business plays the key role in addressing and finding solutions to the challenges of climate change. Luxury brands are the trendsetters and tastemakers. They are the leaders in the fashion industry and therefore responsible for improving on sustainability as well. Even luxury business cannot avoid environmental issues. The relation between luxury and sustainability is explored with the Burberry case based on the Triple Bottom Line (TBL) framework. There are various ways for luxury brands to excel in sustainability and affect other companies' practices. The companies can incorporate the concept of sustainability in their brand stories as part of the branding process. They can also improve demand planning accuracy and produce upcycled goods. Centering on Burberry's case, this paper aims to explore the current sustainable practices of luxury business along with its future direction toward sustainable development. Its contribution and directions for both researchers and business practitioners are discussed.

A Study on Small Business Forecasting Models and Indexes (중소기업 경기예측 모형 및 지수에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, YeoChang;Lee, Sung Duck;Sung, JaeHyun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2015
  • The role of small and medium enterprises as an economic growth factor has been accentuated; consequently, the need to develop a business forecast model and indexes that accurately examine business situation of small and medium enterprises has increased. Most current business model and indexes concerning small and medium enterprises, released by public and private institutions, are based on Business Survey Index (BSI) and depend on subjective (business model and) indexes; therefore, the business model and indexes lack a capacity to grasp an accurate business situation of these enterprises. The business forecast model and indexes suggested in the study have been newly developed with Principal Component Analysis(PCA) and weight method to accurately measure a business situation based on reference dates addressed by the National Statistical Office(NSO). Empirical studies will be presented to prove that the newly proposed business model and indexes have their basis in statistical theory and their trend that resembles the existing Composite Index.

A study on the use of a Business Intelligence system : the role of explanations (비즈니스 인텔리전스 시스템의 활용 방안에 관한 연구: 설명 기능을 중심으로)

  • Kwon, YoungOk
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.155-169
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid advances in technologies, organizations are more likely to depend on information systems in their decision-making processes. Business Intelligence (BI) systems, in particular, have become a mainstay in dealing with complex problems in an organization, partly because a variety of advanced computational methods from statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can be applied to solve business problems such as demand forecasting. In addition to the ability to analyze past and present trends, these predictive analytics capabilities provide huge value to an organization's ability to respond to change in markets, business risks, and customer trends. While the performance effects of BI system use in organization settings have been studied, it has been little discussed on the use of predictive analytics technologies embedded in BI systems for forecasting tasks. Thus, this study aims to find important factors that can help to take advantage of the benefits of advanced technologies of a BI system. More generally, a BI system can be viewed as an advisor, defined as the one that formulates judgments or recommends alternatives and communicates these to the person in the role of the judge, and the information generated by the BI system as advice that a decision maker (judge) can follow. Thus, we refer to the findings from the advice-giving and advice-taking literature, focusing on the role of explanations of the system in users' advice taking. It has been shown that advice discounting could occur when an advisor's reasoning or evidence justifying the advisor's decision is not available. However, the majority of current BI systems merely provide a number, which may influence decision makers in accepting the advice and inferring the quality of advice. We in this study explore the following key factors that can influence users' advice taking within the setting of a BI system: explanations on how the box-office grosses are predicted, types of advisor, i.e., system (data mining technique) or human-based business advice mechanisms such as prediction markets (aggregated human advice) and human advisors (individual human expert advice), users' evaluations of the provided advice, and individual differences in decision-makers. Each subject performs the following four tasks, by going through a series of display screens on the computer. First, given the information of the given movie such as director and genre, the subjects are asked to predict the opening weekend box office of the movie. Second, in light of the information generated by an advisor, the subjects are asked to adjust their original predictions, if they desire to do so. Third, they are asked to evaluate the value of the given information (e.g., perceived usefulness, trust, satisfaction). Lastly, a short survey is conducted to identify individual differences that may affect advice-taking. The results from the experiment show that subjects are more likely to follow system-generated advice than human advice when the advice is provided with an explanation. When the subjects as system users think the information provided by the system is useful, they are also more likely to take the advice. In addition, individual differences affect advice-taking. The subjects with more expertise on advisors or that tend to agree with others adjust their predictions, following the advice. On the other hand, the subjects with more knowledge on movies are less affected by the advice and their final decisions are close to their original predictions. The advances in predictive analytics of a BI system demonstrate a great potential to support increasingly complex business decisions. This study shows how the designs of a BI system can play a role in influencing users' acceptance of the system-generated advice, and the findings provide valuable insights on how to leverage the advanced predictive analytics of the BI system in an organization's forecasting practices.

The Influences of Venture Firms' Motives of Foreign Market Entry on International Preparing Activities and Business Performances - Comparison of Taiwanese and Korean Firms - (벤처기업의 해외진출동기가 국제화준비활동과 경영성과에 미치는 영향 - 대만과 한국기업의 비교 -)

  • Cho, Dae-Woo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.418-445
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    • 2009
  • This paper shows that the motives of foreign market entry is classified into the motive of overseas propensity(Motive(M) 1) and of the limited competition of domestic market(Motive(M) 2). International preparing activities are also divided into the activity of ex-ante forecasting and market research(Activity(A) 1), and of ex-ante cooperation and business experience with local firms(Activity(A) 2). M 1 and M2 of Taiwanese ventures can not explain the local performance, but both the influence of M 1 on international preparing activity and business performance, and inter-relationship between Performance(P) 1 and 2 are statistically significant at the 5 % level of significance. On the other hand, Korean ventures in Deadeok Innopolis show that the influence of Activity 1 such as ex-ante forecasting and market research on business performance(P 1) is statistically significant at the 5 % level of significance, but both the relationship between the motive of foreign market entry and P 1 or P 2, and inter-relationship between P 1 and P 2 are not statistically significant. This study finds out there exists the distinct difference owing to their own nationality between Taiwanese and Korean ventures.

Design of a Strategic Roadmapping for Deployment of New Business (신규사업전개를 위한 전략적 로드맵의 절차설계)

  • 권철신;박준호;장동훈
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.29-32
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    • 2003
  • As the importance of technology planning has been increased, the various methods of the technology planning have been developed by global leading companies recently. The goals of companies are set after investigating market and customer. And finally, a strategic roadmap is diagrarnrnatized as a picture to show how to accomplish them based on technology forecasting.

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Use of Electronic Catalog in Retail Industry (선진 유통업체 전자 카탈로그 활용 사례)

  • 최문실
    • Proceedings of the CALSEC Conference
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    • 2001.08a
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    • pp.439-448
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    • 2001
  • Data Alignment is achieved when all trading partners information systems are maintained automatically synchronising with the suppliers information systems on a continuing basis. Electronic catalogues facilitate the ongoing synchronisation of data between trading partners and large retailers in United States and Canada use electronic catalog in order to get rid of non-value added paperwork and manual reconciliation. Data Alignment will dramatically improve the effectiveness of E-Commerce and Supply Chain initiatives including electronic Marketplaces, Collaborative Planning and Forecasting and continuous replenishment processes.

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A Study on New Business of the Food Service Industry (외식산업의 창업에 대한 연구)

  • 조병소
    • Journal of Applied Tourism Food and Beverage Management and Research
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    • v.9
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    • pp.273-302
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    • 1998
  • INTERNATIONAL MONITORY FUNDS wave swept the Economic structural insolvency lies one upon another with low growth, low trust, low prices, low interest and low employment as[2 down 3 up] phenomenons have been distinguished and low enterprise a control of structures due to forecasting 200 million unemployment, including 600 million unemployed the head of a family population have a difficulty in their life. Only way to give them hope is through the commencement of an enterprises to have 2nd career development. But end of 1995, 467,00 dining out companies have been established and recently business are in depression. There are many business conditions of change of business or reduce operations, if unemployment populations of 5%, 100,000 peoples doing the commencement of an enterprises, enormous number of dining out companies will be increased and the competition will be fierce, especially those who have short knowledge and experience doing the commencement of an enterprises have high failure than success which will give a problems to society. Our study is to make the commencement of an enterprise to reducing the faiure and to be successful for main point to successful commencement of an enterprise, the established can self capability and mental condition, the main important factor is types of industry selection, successful and those established who takes this conditions will very carefully inspect various matters by scientifically and rationally mind industrys propulsion graphs and open official fixture graphs will framing detail factors. One by inspect the reduction of failure, and successful commencement of an enterproses mind industry have been studied.

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