• ETRI Journal
• /
• v.36 no.4
• /
• pp.581-590
• /
• 2014

This study investigates the impact of tweets on box office revenue. Specifically, the study focuses on the times when tweets were written by examining the impact of pre- and post-consumption tweets on box office revenue; an examination that is based on Expectation Confirmation Theory. The study also investigates the impact of intention tweets versus subjective tweets and the impact of negative tweets on box office revenue. Targeting 120 movies released in the US between February and August 2012, this study collected tweet information on a daily basis from two weeks before the opening until the closing and box office revenue information. The results indicate that the disconfirmation that occurs in relation to the total number of pre-consumption tweets for a movie has a negative impact on box office revenue. This premise suggests that the formation of higher expectations of a movie does not always result in positive results in situations where tweets on perceived movie quality after watching spread rapidly. This study also reveals that intention tweets have stronger effects on box office revenue than subjective tweets.

• Knowledge Management Research
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.65-83
• /
• 2017

Word-of-mouth (WOM), the communication between consumers offline, has transformed to include electronic word-of-mouth(eWOM), which has grown in its influence due to the advancements in communication technology. Despite the fact that many researchers have studied the impact of WOM and eWOM on the performance of movies in the movie industry, there still exists much controversy. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship of eWOM's volume and valence with the box office revenue for 2 years in Korean movies industry. The results show that the volume of eWOM, which is expected to related to awareness diffusion, is more important than the valence in the early stage of movie release. And in the later stage, the valence of eWOM which is expected to related to persuasion effect influences the box office revenue. In addition, the relationship of the volume and valence on box office revenue in both early and later stage can be increased through the interaction with the star power which raises the familiarity or the movie genre which causes the high arousal.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.301-309
• /
• 2013

This paper predicts gross box office revenue for domestic films using the Korean film data from 2008-2011. We use three regression methods, Linear Regression, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting to predict the gross box office revenue. We only consider domestic films with a revenue size of at least KRW 500 million; relevant explanatory variables are chosen by data visualization and variable selection techniques. The key idea of analyzing this data is to construct the meaningful explanatory variables from the data sources available to the public. Some variables must be categorized to conduct more effective analysis and clustering methods are applied to achieve this task. We choose the best model based on performance in the test set and important explanatory variables are discussed.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.133-145
• /
• 2015

Motion picture industry in Korea has been growing constantly and aroused various kinds of research attention. Particularly, the introduction of official box-office database service brought quantitative studies. However, approaches based on diffusion models have been rarely found with domestic film markets. In addition to the fundamental statistical review on Korea and US film markets, we applied a diffusion model to daily box-office revenue. Unlike conventional preference of Gamma distribution on the film markets, estimation results proved that BMIC can also explain the trend of daily revenue successfully. The comparison with BMIC showed that there is a distinctive difference in diffusion patterns of Korea and US film markets. Generally, word-of-mouth effect appeared more significant in Korea.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.49-65
• /
• 2014

Word of Mouth (WOM) is a behavior used by consumers to transfer or communicate their product or service experience to other consumers. Due to the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Twitter, blogs, and online communities, electronic WOM (e-WOM) has become important to the success of products or services. As a result, most enterprises pay close attention to e-WOM for their products or services. This is especially important for movies, as these are experiential products. This paper aims to identify the network factors of an online movie community that impact box office revenue using social network analysis. In addition to traditional WOM factors (volume and valence of WOM), network centrality measures of the online community are included as influential factors in box office revenue. Based on previous research results, we develop five hypotheses on the relationships between potential influential factors (WOM volume, WOM valence, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and box office revenue. The first hypothesis is that the accumulated volume of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The second hypothesis is that the accumulated valence of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The third hypothesis is that the average of degree centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fourth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fifth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. To verify our research model, we collect movie review data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), which is a representative online movie community, and movie revenue data from the Box-Office-Mojo website. The movies in this analysis include weekly top-10 movies from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2013, with in total. We collect movie metadata such as screening periods and user ratings; and community data in IMDb including reviewer identification, review content, review times, responder identification, reply content, reply times, and reply relationships. For the same period, the revenue data from Box-Office-Mojo is collected on a weekly basis. Movie community networks are constructed based on reply relationships between reviewers. Using a social network analysis tool, NodeXL, we calculate the averages of three centralities including degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality for each movie. Correlation analysis of focal variables and the dependent variable (final revenue) shows that three centrality measures are highly correlated, prompting us to perform multiple regressions separately with each centrality measure. Consistent with previous research results, our regression analysis results show that the volume and valence of WOM are positively related to the final box office revenue of movies. Moreover, the averages of betweenness centralities from initial community networks impact the final movie revenues. However, both of the averages of degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence final movie performance. Based on the regression results, three hypotheses, 1, 2, and 4, are accepted, and two hypotheses, 3 and 5, are rejected. This study tries to link the network structure of e-WOM on online product communities with the product's performance. Based on the analysis of a real online movie community, the results show that online community network structures can work as a predictor of movie performance. The results show that the betweenness centralities of the reviewer community are critical for the prediction of movie performance. However, degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence movie performance. As future research topics, similar analyses are required for other product categories such as electronic goods and online content to generalize the study results.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.167-173
• /
• 2017

With increased interest in the fourth industrial revolution represented by artificial intelligence, it has been very active to utilize bigdata and machine learning techniques in almost areas of society. Also, such activities have been realized by development of forecasting systems in various applications. Especially in the movie industry, there have been numerous attempts to predict whether they would be success or not. In the past, most of studies considered only the static factors in the process of prediction, but recently, several efforts are tried to utilize realtime social bigdata produced in SNS. In this paper, we propose the prediction technique utilizing various feedback information such as news articles, blogs and reviews as well as static factors of movies. Additionally, we also experimentally evaluate whether the proposed technique could precisely forecast their revenue targeting on the relatively successful movies.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.67-83
• /
• 2018

The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

• Asia Marketing Journal
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.43-55
• /
• 2013

Since movies are experience goods, consumers are easily influenced by other consumers' behavior. For moviegoers, box office rank is the most credible and easily accessible information. Many studies have found that the relationship between a movie's box office rank and its revenue departs from the Pareto distribution, and this phenomenon has been named "increasing returns to information." The primary objective of the current research is to apply the empirical model proposed by De Vany and Walls (1996) to the Korean movie market in order to examine whether the same phenomenon prevails in the Korean movie market. The other purpose of the present study is to provide managers with useful implications about the release timing of a movie by finding different curvatures that depend upon seasonality. The empirical test on the Korean movie market shows similar results as prior studies conducted on the U.S., Hong Kong, and U.K. movie markets. The phenomenon of increasing returns is generated by information transmission among consumers, which makes some movies become blockbusters and others bombs. The proposed model can also be interpreted in such a way that a change in the rank has a nonlinear effect on the movie's performance. If a movie climbs up the chart, it would be rewarded more than its proportion. On the other hand, if a movie falls down in the ranks, its performance would drop rapidly. The research result also indicates that the phenomenon of increasing returns occurs differently depending on when the movies are released. Since the tendency of the increasing returns to information is stronger during the peak seasons, movie marketers should decide upon the release timing of a movie based on its competitiveness. If a movie has substantial potential to incur positive word-of-mouth, it would be more reasonable to release the movie during the peak season to enjoy increasing returns. Otherwise, a movie should be released during the low season to minimize the risk of being dropped from the chart.

• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.169-186
• /
• 2020

This study selected 127 powerful Korean film producers, directors, and actors whose stable audience drawing power has been proven over the past seven years from 2013 to 2019, and viewed their network through social network analysis(SNA) to explain their power structure. It also explained the changes compared to the results of previous studies conducted on box office hits from 1998 to 2012. The producers who showed the highest audience drawing power over the past seven years were KANG Hae-jung, JANG Won-seok, LEE Eugene, HAN Jae-duk. BONG Joon-ho, KIM Yong-hwa, and RYOO Seung-wan as directors and SONG Kang-ho, HA Jung-woo, and HWANG Jung-min as actors were confirmed to exhibit the most stable audience drawing power. Meanwhile, the network formed by the 127 leading producers, filmmakers, and actors was analyzed based on closeness/ degree/eigenvector/betwenness centrality, and the result discovered a strong network involving JANG Won-seok, HAN Jae-duk, CHO Jin-woong, Don LEE, and HWANG Jung-min. This study is meaningful in that it included producers, the position which has never been discussed in previous local studies to analyze the network influencing star casting, and selected accurate box office hits by checking whether the concerned films actually reached break-even point rather than simply relying on the number of audiences or total revenue they garnered. Nonetheless, it left a hole to be filled in that it did not include the role of the management companies in the network. Therefore, a relevant follow-up discussion would be needed.

• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
• /
• v.6 no.4
• /
• pp.82-92
• /
• 2012

Recently people who enjoy social game via mobile devices significantly are increasing depending on the rapid adoption of smart phones and the development of the network such as LTE. Most of them are enjoying the casual gaming mobile social games that you are able to play easily, but social issues like health problems due to long play time are emerging. The users, however, do not last long because of the simplicity of the game, and there are few people who actually buy game items even though they play it long time. This study has been conducted aiming to overcome such difficulties. This study suggests ways to generate constantly revenue avoiding short-term box-office after the release of mobile social games based on the analysis for market trend and profitability of the mobile social game. In addition, by applying profitability model analyzed to Japan's most successful game practices, this paper suggests the concrete methods about the commitment of the users. For summarizing the main achievements of this paper, providing the latest market information about mobile social games, analysis of profitability, practical implications for the commitment of the users are presented.