• Title/Summary/Keyword: Binomial Failure Rate

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Establishing Method of RAM Objective Considering Combat Readiness and Field Data of Similarity Equipment (전투준비태세 및 유사장비 운용자료를 활용한 RAM 목표 값 설정방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Yong;Bae, Suk-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2009
  • RAM(Reliability, Availability, Maintainability) is important performance factor to keep combat readiness and optimize operational and maintenance cost of weapon systems. This paper discusses the method to establish RAM for combat readiness by using field failure data from similarity equipments. Operational availability is estimated from a binomial distribution function of user's operational conditions such as combat readiness preservation probability, operational rate, operational availability and total number of equipment. Reliability and maintainability is estimated from field failure data from similarity equipment to accomplish operational availability. The effectiveness of established RAM is verified through analysis of combat readiness preservation probability and mission reliability. A case study of weapon system illustrates the process of the proposed method.

RELIABILITY ESTIMATION FOR A DIGITAL INSTRUMENT AND CONTROL SYSTEM

  • Yaguang, Yang;Russell, Sydnor
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we propose a reliability estimation method for DI&C systems. At the system level, a fault tree model is suggested and Boolean algebra is used to obtain the minimal cut sets. At the component level, an exponential distribution is used to model hardware failures, and Bayesian estimation is suggested to estimate the failure rate. Additionally, a binomial distribution is used to model software failures, and a recently developed software reliability estimation method is suggested to estimate the software failure rate. The overall system reliability is then estimated based on minimal cut sets, hardware failure rates and software failure rates.

Analysis of Common Cause Failure Using Two-Step Expectation and Maximization Algorithm (2단계 EM 알고리즘을 이용한 공통원인 고장 분석)

  • Baek Jang Hyun;Seo Jae Young;Na Man Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2005
  • In the field of nuclear reactor safety study, common cause failures (CCFs) became significant contributors to system failure probability and core damage frequency in most Probabilistic risk assessments. However, it is hard to estimate the reliability of such a system, because of the dependency of components caused by CCFs. In order to analyze the system, we propose an analytic method that can find the parameters with lack of raw data. This study adopts the shock model in which the failure probability increases as the shock is cumulated. We use two-step Expectation and Maximization (EM) algorithm to find the unknown parameters. In order to verify the analysis result, we perform the simulation under same environment. This approach might be helpful to build the defensive strategy for the CCFs.

Comprehensive Cumulative Shock Common Cause Failure Models and Assessment of System Reliability (포괄적 누적 충격 공통원인고장 모형 및 시스템 신뢰도 평가)

  • Lim, Tae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.320-328
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    • 2011
  • This research proposes comprehensive models for analyzing common cause failures (CCF) due to cumulative shocks and to assess system reliability under the CCF. The proposed cumulative shock models are based on the binomial failure rate (BFR) model. Six kinds of models are proposed so as to explain diverse cumulative shock phenomena. The models are composed of the initial failure probability, shape parameter, and the total shock number. Some parameters of the proposed models can not be explicitly estimated, so we adopt the Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in order to obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the parameters. By estimating the parameters for the cumulative shock models, the system reliability with CCF can be assessed sequentially according to the number of cumulative shocks. The result can be utilizes in dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aging studies, or risk management for nuclear power plants. Replacement or maintenance policies can also be developed based on the proposed model.

Usefulness of lateral cephalometric radiography for successful blind nasal intubation: a prospective study

  • Ito, Kana;Kamura, Ayaka;Koshika, Kyotaro;Handa, Toshiyuki;Matsuura, Nobuyuki;Ichinohe, Tatsuya
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.427-435
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    • 2022
  • Background: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between pharyngeal morphology and the success or failure of blind nasotracheal intubation using standard lateral cephalometric radiography and to analyze the measurement items affecting the difficulty of blind nasotracheal intubation. Methods: Assuming a line perpendicular to the Frankfort horizontal (FH) plane, the reference point (O) was selected 1 cm above the posterior-most end of the hard palate. A line passing through the reference point and parallel to the FH plane is defined as the X-axis, and a line passing through the reference point and perpendicular to the X-axis is defined as the Y-axis. The shortest length between the tip of the uvula and posterior pharyngeal wall (AW), shortest length between the base of the tongue and posterior pharyngeal wall (BW), and width of the glottis (CW) were measured. The midpoints of the lines representing each width are defined as points A, B, and C, and the X and Y coordinates of each point are obtained (AX, BX, CX, AY, BY, and CY). For each measurement, a t-test was performed to compare the tracheal intubation success and failure groups. A binomial logistic regression analysis was performed using clinically relevant items. Results: The items significantly affecting the success rate of blind nasotracheal intubation included the difference in X coordinates at points A and C (Odds ratio, 0.714; P-value, 0.024) and the ∠ABC (Odds ratio, 1.178; P-value, 0.016). Conclusion: Using binomial logistic regression analysis, we observed statistically significant differences in AX-CX and ∠ABC between the success group and the failure group.

A Study on the Development of Models for the Optimal Requirement Level of the CSP (CSP 적정소요 산출을 위한 모형개발에 관한 연구)

  • 박상수;이규헌
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 1997
  • This study is concerned with a few models for optimal requirement level of CSP by improving and adjusting the existing models to determine CSP items and quantity as follows. First, by building a model with a objective function of the operating level and constrains of budget, quantity and items of CSP are simultaneously determined. Second, we removed some steps to improve initial solution by using a constraint of usable budget level. Third, we demonstrated a model to be applied with real operating situation by combining two models of Lee(1994) and above. Lastly, by assuming a failure probability distribution is a binomial distribution, the better solution can be obtained. Some facts with necessity of policy improvement were raised as follows: (1) necessity of improvement of the CSP acquisition system, (2) in case of the same kind, permission of diversion in order to execute budget effectively, (3) getting accurate failure rate.

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A Comparison of Characteristics between Success Group and Failure Group of 1-year Continuous Smoking Abstinence in Young Adult and Middle-aged Male Workers: with Focus on the First-year Analysis of Korean Cross-sectional Survey (청년 및 중년남성 근로자 중 1년 이상 금연 유지 성공군 및 실패군 간 개인적·사회적·환경적 특성 차이 분석: 제6기 국민건강영양조사 1차년도(2013년) 자료를 바탕으로)

  • Lee, Juna;Lee, Insook
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study examined the characteristics differences associated with 1-year continuous smoking abstinence in Korean young adult and middle-aged male workers. Methods: 'Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES)' is an ongoing surveillance system that assesses the health and nutritional status of Koreans. For a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from KNHANES VI-1, this study selected 683 Korean male workers as a subpopulation, who were young adult or middle-aged. The subpopulation was composed of success or failure group of 1-year continuous smoking abstinence. Binomial logistic regression analysis was performed. Results: Success group was more likely to be older, live in urban areas, rate their health status as excellent or good, and have ever been diagnosed with hypertension than failure group. Additionally, Success group was less likely to have used electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), drink more than once a month, and have been exposed to secondhand smoking in workplace within a week. Conclusion: Developing smoking cessation programs requires consideration of resources in rural areas, promoting self-efficacy, restricting e-cigarettes and drinking, and promoting a smoke-free workplace.

Pulmonary Resection in the Treatment of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (다제 내성 폐결핵환자의 폐절제술에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Eun-Soo;Ha, Hyun-Cheol;Hwang, Su-Hee;Lee, Hung-Yol;Park, Seung-Kyu;Song, Sun-Dae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1143-1153
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    • 1998
  • Background : Recent outbreaks of pulmonary disease due to drug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis have resulted in significant morbidity and mortality in patients worldwide. We reviewed our experience to evaluate the effects of pulmonary resection on the management of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Method : A retrospective review was performed of 41 patients undergoing pulmonary resection for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis between January 1993 and December 1997. We divided these into 3 groups according to the radiologic findings : (1) patients who have reasonably localized lesion (Localized Lesion Group ; LLG) (2) patients who have cavitary lesions after pulmonary resection on chest roentgenogram (Remained Cavity Group : RCG) (3) patients who have Remained infiltrative lesions postoperatively (Remained infiltrative group : RIG). We evaluated the negative conversion rate after resection and overall response rate of the groups. Then they were compared with the results of the chemotherapy on the multi drug-resistant tuberculosis which has been outcome by Goble et al. Goble et al reported that negative conversion rate was 65% and overall response rate, 56% over a mean period of 5.1 months. Results : Seventy five point six percent were men and 24.4% women with a median age of 31 years (range, 16 to 60 years). Although the patients were treated preoperatively with multidrug regimens in an effort to reduce the mycobacterial burden, 22 of 41 were still sputum culture positive at the time of surgery. 20 of 22 patients(90.9%, p<0.01) responded which is defined as negative sputum cultures within 2 months postoperative. Of 26 patients with the sufficient follow up data, 19 have Remained sputum culture negative for a mean duration of 25.7 months (73.1%, p<0.05). The bulk of the disease was manifest in one lung, but lesser amounts of contralateral disease were demonstrated in 15, consisted of 8 in RIG and 7 in RCG, of 41. 12 of 12 patients (100%, p<0.01) who were sputum positive at the time of surgery in LLG converted successfully. 14 of 15 patients (93.3%, p<0.05) with the follow up have completed treatment and not relapsed for a mean period of 25. 7 months. The mean length of postoperative drug therapy of LLG was 12.2 months. In RIG, postoperative negative conversion rate was 83.3% which was not significant statistically. There was a statistical significance in overall response rate (100%, p<0.05) of RIG for a mean period of 24.4 months with a mean length of postoperative chemotherapy, 11.8 months. In RCG a statistically lower overall response rate (14.3%, p<0.01) has been revealed for a mean duration of follow up, 24.2 months. A negative conversion rate of RCG was 75% which was not significant statistically. Conclusion : Surgery plays an important role in the management of patients with multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Aggressive pulmonary resection should be performed for resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to avoid treatment failure or relapse. Especially all cavitary lesions on preoperative chest roentgenogram should be resected completely. If all of them could not be resected perfectly, you should not open the thorax.

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