• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.57-64
• /
• 2011

An extensive database has been constructed of reinforced concrete (RC) beam-column connection tests subjected to cyclic lateral loading. All cases within the database experienced joint shear failure, either in conjunction with or without yielding of longitudinal beam reinforcement. Using the experimental database, envelope curves of joint shear stress vs. joint shear strain behavior have been created by connecting key points such as cracking, yielding, and peak loading. Various prediction approaches for RC joint shear behavior are discussed using the constructed experimental database. RC joint shear strength and deformation models are first presented using the database in conjunction with a Bayesian parameter estimation method, and then a complete model applicable to the full range of RC joint shear behavior is suggested. An RC joint shear prediction model following a U.S. standard is next summarized and evaluated. Finally, a particular joint shear prediction model using basic joint shear resistance mechanisms is described and for the first time critically assessed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.41 no.3
• /
• pp.325-340
• /
• 2008

This study employs Bayesian multiple regression analysis using the ordinary least squares method for regional low flow frequency analysis. The parameter estimates using the Bayesian multiple regression analysis were compared to conventional analysis using the t-distribution. In these comparisons, the mean values from the t-distribution and the Bayesian analysis at each return period are not significantly different. However, the difference between upper and lower limits is remarkably reduced using the Bayesian multiple regression. Therefore, from the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian multiple regression analysis is more attractive than the conventional method based on a t-distribution because the low flow sample size at the site of interest is typically insufficient to perform low flow frequency analysis. Also, we performed low flow prediction, including confidence interval, at two ungauged catchments in the Nakdong River basin using the developed Bayesian multiple regression model. The Bayesian prediction proves effective to infer the low flow characteristic at the ungauged catchment.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
• /
• v.16 no.5
• /
• pp.631-638
• /
• 2013

The probabilistic fatigue life analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. Frequently, the Bayesian approach has been demonstrated as a proper method to show the uncertainty of parameters. In this work, the application of probabilistic fatigue life prediction method for the aircraft structure was studied. This effort was conducted by using the PoF(Probability of Failure) based on Bayesian approach. Furthermore, numerical example was carried out to confirm the validation of the suggested approach. In conclusion, it was shown that the Bayesian approach can calculate the probabilistic fatigue lives and the quantitative value of PoF effectively for the aircraft structural component. Moreover the calculated probabilistic fatigue lives can be utilized to determine the optimized inspection period of aircraft structures.

• The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.51-58
• /
• 2018

In order to analyze the prediction of the computer entertainment behavior, this study investigated the variables' interdependencies and their causal relations to the computer entertainment behavior using Bayesian inference with the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey data. For the study, Markov blanket was extracted through General Bayesian Network and the degree of influences was investigated by changing the variables' probabilities. Results showed that the computer entertainment behavior was significantly changed depending on adjusting the values of the related variables; school learning act, smoking, taunting, fandom, and school rule. The results suggested that the Bayesian inference could be used in educational filed for predicting and adjusting the adolescents' computer entertainment behavior.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.91-97
• /
• 2016

PURPOSES : The objective of this paper is to develop a pavement performance model based on the Bayesian algorithm, and compare the measured and predicted performance data. METHODS : In this paper, several pavement types such as SMA (stone mastic asphalt), PSMA (polymer-modified stone mastic asphalt), PMA (polymer-modified asphalt), SBS (styrene-butadiene-styrene) modified asphalt, and DGA (dense-graded asphalt) are modeled in terms of the performance evaluation of pavement structures, using the Bayesian algorithm. RESULTS : From case studies related to the performance model development, the statistical parameters of the mean value and standard deviation can be obtained through the Bayesian algorithm, using the initial performance data of two different pavement cases. Furthermore, an accurate performance model can be developed, based on the comparison between the measured and predicted performance data. CONCLUSIONS : Based on the results of the case studies, it is concluded that the determined coefficients of the nonlinear performance models can be used to accurately predict the long-term performance behaviors of DGA and modified asphalt concrete pavements. In addition, the developed models were evaluated through comparison studies between the initial measurement and prediction data, as well as between the final measurement and prediction data. In the model development, the initial measured data were used.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.4
• /
• pp.109-120
• /
• 1993

Using a noninformative prior and a gamma prior, the Bayesian predictive density and the prediction intervals for a future observation or the p-th order statistic of n' future observations from the Burr distribution have been obtained. In additions, we examine the sensitivities of the results to the choice of model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.407-416
• /
• 2001

Sample surveys are usually designed and analyzed to produce estimates for a large area or populations. Therefore, for the small area estimations, sample sizes are often not large enough to give adequate precision. Several small area estimation methods were proposed in recent years concerning with sample sizes. Here, we will compare simple Bayesian approach with Bayesian prediction for small area estimation based on linear regression model. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated through unemployment population data form Economic Active Population(EAP) Survey.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2003.05a
• /
• pp.171-176
• /
• 2003

This paper deals with the problem of predicting order statistics in samples from a Rayleigh population when an outlier is present. Bayesian predictive distribution and prediction bounds of the p-th order statistics is obtained where an outlier of type $\theta\delta$ is present. In this connection, some identies are derived.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.6 no.1
• /
• pp.53-61
• /
• 1995

This paper deals with problems of predicting, based on the random censored sampling, a future observation and the p-th order statistic of n' future observations for the Rayleigh model. We consider the prediction intervals for the Rayleigh model with respect to an inverse gamma prior distribution. In additions, numerical examples are given in order to illustrate the proposed predictive procedure.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.535-554
• /
• 2009

Information collected on mobile devices might be utilized to support user's memory, but it is difficult to effectively retrieve them because of the enormous amount of information. In order to organize information as an episodic approach that mimics human memory for the effective search, it is required to detect important event like landmarks. For providing new services with users, in this paper, we propose the prediction model to find landmarks automatically from various context log information based on attributed Bayesian networks. The data are divided into daily and weekly ones, and are categorized into attributes according to the source, to learn the Bayesian networks for the improvement of landmark prediction. The experiments on the Nokia log data showed that the Bayesian method outperforms SVMs, and the proposed attributed Bayesian networks are superior to the Bayesian networks modelled daily and weekly.