• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian Rule

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A Predictive Two-Group Multinormal Classification Rule Accounting for Model Uncertainty

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.477-491
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    • 1997
  • A new predictive classification rule for assigning future cases into one of two multivariate normal population (with unknown normal mixture model) is considered. The development involves calculation of posterior probability of each possible normal-mixture model via a default Bayesian test criterion, called intrinsic Bayes factor, and suggests predictive distribution for future cases to be classified that accounts for model uncertainty by weighting the effect of each model by its posterior probabiliy. In this paper, our interest is focused on constructing the classification rule that takes care of uncertainty about the types of covariance matrices (homogeneity/heterogeneity) involved in the model. For the constructed rule, a Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates routine application and notes benefits over traditional predictive calssification rule by Geisser (1982).

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Development of a Secure Routing Protocol using Game Theory Model in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

  • Paramasivan, Balasubramanian;Viju Prakash, Maria Johan;Kaliappan, Madasamy
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2015
  • In mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs), nodes are mobile in nature. Collaboration between mobile nodes is more significant in MANETs, which have as their greatest challenges vulnerabilities to various security attacks and an inability to operate securely while preserving its resources and performing secure routing among nodes. Therefore, it is essential to develop an effective secure routing protocol to protect the nodes from anonymous behaviors. Currently, game theory is a tool that analyzes, formulates and solves selfishness issues. It is seldom applied to detect malicious behavior in networks. It deals, instead, with the strategic and rational behavior of each node. In our study,we used the dynamic Bayesian signaling game to analyze the strategy profile for regular and malicious nodes. This game also revealed the best actions of individual strategies for each node. Perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) provides a prominent solution for signaling games to solve incomplete information by combining strategies and payoff of players that constitute equilibrium. Using PBE strategies of nodes are private information of regular and malicious nodes. Regular nodes should be cooperative during routing and update their payoff, while malicious nodes take sophisticated risks by evaluating their risk of being identified to decide when to decline. This approach minimizes the utility of malicious nodes and it motivates better cooperation between nodes by using the reputation system. Regular nodes monitor continuously to evaluate their neighbors using belief updating systems of the Bayes rule.

An Analysis on Prediction of Computer Entertainment Behavior Using Bayesian Inference (베이지안 추론을 이용한 컴퓨터 오락추구 행동 예측 분석)

  • Lee, HyeJoo;Jung, EuiHyun
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2018
  • In order to analyze the prediction of the computer entertainment behavior, this study investigated the variables' interdependencies and their causal relations to the computer entertainment behavior using Bayesian inference with the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey data. For the study, Markov blanket was extracted through General Bayesian Network and the degree of influences was investigated by changing the variables' probabilities. Results showed that the computer entertainment behavior was significantly changed depending on adjusting the values of the related variables; school learning act, smoking, taunting, fandom, and school rule. The results suggested that the Bayesian inference could be used in educational filed for predicting and adjusting the adolescents' computer entertainment behavior.

A Bayes Sequential Selection of the Least Probale Event

  • Hwang, Hyung-Tae;Kim, Woo-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 1982
  • A problem of selecting the least probable cell in a multinomial distribution is studied in a Bayesian framework. We consider two loss components the cost of sampling and the difference in cell probabilities between the selected and the least probable cells. A Bayes sequential selection rule is derived with respect to a Dirichlet prior, and it is compared with the best fixed sample size selection rule. The continuation sets with respect to the vague prior are tabulated for certain cases.

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Online Parameter Estimation and Convergence Property of Dynamic Bayesian Networks

  • Cho, Hyun-Cheol;Fadali, M. Sami;Lee, Kwon-Soon
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we investigate a novel online estimation algorithm for dynamic Bayesian network(DBN) parameters, given as conditional probabilities. We sequentially update the parameter adjustment rule based on observation data. We apply our algorithm to two well known representations of DBNs: to a first-order Markov Chain(MC) model and to a Hidden Markov Model(HMM). A sliding window allows efficient adaptive computation in real time. We also examine the stochastic convergence and stability of the learning algorithm.

Extraction of Hierarchical Decision Rules from Clinical Databases using Rough Sets

  • Tsumoto, Shusaku
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2001.01a
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    • pp.336-342
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    • 2001
  • One of the most important problems on rule induction methods is that they cannot extract rules, which plausibly represent experts decision processes. On one hand, rule induction methods induce probabilistic rules, the description length of which is too short, compared with the experts rules. On the other hand, construction of Bayesian networks generates too lengthy rules. In this paper, the characteristics of experts rules are closely examined and a new approach to extract plausible rules is introduced, which consists of the following three procedures. First, the characterization of decision attributes (given classes) is extracted from databases and the classes are classified into several groups with respect to the characterization. Then, two kinds of sub-rules, characterization rules for each group and discrimination rules for each class in the group are induced. Finally, those two parts are integrated into one rule for each decision attribute. The proposed method was evaluated on a medical database, the experimental results of which show that induced rules correctly represent experts decision processes.

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Application of Spatial Data Integration Based on the Likelihood Ratio Function nad Bayesian Rule for Landslide Hazard Mapping (우도비 함수와 베이지안 결합을 이용한 공간통합의 산사태 취약성 분석에의 적용)

  • Chi, Kwang-Hoon;Chung, Chang-Jo F.;Kwon, Byung-Doo;Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.428-439
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    • 2003
  • Landslides, as a geological hazard, have caused extensive damage to property and sometimes result in loss of life. Thus, it is necessary to assess vulnerable areas for future possible landslides in order to mitigate the damage they cause. For this purpose, spatial data integration has been developed and applied to landslide hazard mapping. Among various models, this paper investigates and discusses the effectiveness of the Bayesian spatial data integration approach to landslide hazard mapping. In this study, several data sets related to landslide occurrences in Jangheung, Korea were constructed using GIS and then digitally represented using the likelihood ratio function. By computing the likelihood ratio, we obtained quantitative relationships between input data and landslide occurrences. The likelihood ratio functions were combined using the Bayesian combination rule. In order for predicted results to provide meaningful interpretations with respect to future landslides, we carried out validation based on the spatial partitioning of the landslide distribution. As a result, the Bayesian approach based on a likelihood ratio function can effectively integrate various spatial data for landslide hazard mapping, and it is expected that some suggestions in this study will be helpful to further applications including integration and interpretation stages in order to obtain a decision-support layer.

An N-version Learning Approach to Enhance the Prediction Accuracy of Classification Systems in Genetics-based Learning Environments (유전학 기반 학습 환경하에서 분류 시스템의 성능 향상을 위한 엔-버전 학습법)

  • Kim, Yeong-Jun;Hong, Cheol-Ui
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.6 no.7
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    • pp.1841-1848
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    • 1999
  • DELVAUX is a genetics-based inductive learning system that learns a rule-set, which consists of Bayesian classification rules, from sets of examples for classification tasks. One problem that DELVAUX faces in the rule-set learning process is that, occasionally, the learning process ends with a local optimum without finding the best rule-set. Another problem is that, occasionally, the learning process ends with a rule-set that performs well for the training examples but not for the unknown testing examples. This paper describes efforts to alleviate these two problems centering on the N-version learning approach, in which multiple rule-sets are learning and a classification system is constructed with those learned rule-sets to improve the overall performance of a classification system. For the implementation of the N-version learning approach, we propose a decision-making scheme that can draw a decision using multiple rule-sets and a genetic algorithm approach to find a good combination of rule-sets from a set of learned rule-sets. We also present empirical results that evaluate the effect of the N-version learning approach in the DELVAUX learning environment.

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A Dynamic Recommendation Agent System for E-Mail Management based on Rule Filtering Component (이메일 관리를 위한 룰 필터링 컴포넌트 기반 능동형 추천 에이전트 시스템)

  • Jeong, Ok-Ran;Cho, Dong-Sub
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.126-128
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    • 2004
  • As e-mail is becoming increasingly important in every day life activity, mail users spend more and more time organizing and classifying the e-mails they receive into folder. Many existing recommendation systems or text classification are mostly focused on recommending the products for the commercial purposes or web documents. So this study aims to apply these application to e-mail more necessary to users. This paper suggests a dynamic recommendation agent system based on Rule Filtering Component recommending the relevant category to enable users directly to manage the optimum classification when a new e-mail is received as the effective method for E-Mail Management. Moreover we try to improve the accuracy as eliminating the limits of misclassification that can be key in classifying e-mails by category. While the existing Bayesian Learning Algorithm mostly uses the fixed threshold, we prove to improve the satisfaction of users as increasing the accuracy by changing the fixed threshold to the dynamic threshold. We designed main modules by rule filtering component for enhanced scalability and reusability of our system.

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Machine Learning Model of Gyro Sensor Data for Drone Flight Control (드론 비행 조종을 위한 자이로센서 데이터 기계학습 모델)

  • Ha, Hyunsoo;Hwang, Byung-Yeon
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.927-934
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    • 2017
  • As the technology of drone develops, the use of drone is increasing, In addition, the types of sensors that are inside of smart phones are becoming various and the accuracy is enhancing day by day. Various of researches are being progressed. Therefore, we need to control drone by using smart phone's sensors. In this paper, we propose the most suitable machine learning model that matches the gyro sensor data with drone's moving. First, we classified drone by it's moving of the gyro sensor value of 4 and 8 degree of freedom. After that, we made it to study machine learning. For the method of machine learning, we applied the One-Rule, Neural Network, Decision Tree, and Navie Bayesian. According to the result of experiment that we designated the value from gyro sensor as the attribute, we had the 97.3 percent of highest accuracy that came out from Naive Bayesian method using 2 attributes in 4 degree of freedom. On and the same, in 8 degree of freedom, Naive Bayesian method using 2 attributes showed the highest accuracy of 93.1 percent.