• Title/Summary/Keyword: Availability Heuristics

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An Empirical Inquiry into Psychological Heuristics in the Context of the Korean Distribution Industry within the Stock Market

  • Jeong-Hwan LEE;Se-Jun LEE;Sam-Ho SON
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This paper aims to assess psychological heuristics' effectiveness on cumulative returns after significant stock price changes. Specifically, it compares availability and anchoring heuristics' empirical validity due to conflicting stock return predictions. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: This paper analyzes stock price changes of Korean distribution industry stocks in the KOSPI market from January 2004 to July 2022, where daily fluctuations exceed 10%. It evaluates availability heuristics using daily KOSPI index changes and tests anchoring heuristics using 52-week high and low stock prices as reference points. Results: As a result of the empirical analysis, stock price reversals did not consistently appear alongside changes in the daily KOSPI index. By contrast, stock price drifts consistently appeared around the 52-week highest stock price and 52-week lowest stock price. The result of the multiple regression analysis which controlled for both company-specific and event-specific variables supported the anchoring heuristics. Conclusions: For stocks related to the Korean distribution industry in the KOSPI market, the anchoring heuristics theory provides a consistent explanation for stock returns after large-scale stock price fluctuations that initially appear to be random movements.

An Empirical Study on the Validity of the Availability Huristics and Anchoring Huristics in the Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장에서 가용성 어림짐작과 닻내림 어림짐작의 유효성에 관한 실증연구)

  • Sam-Ho Son;Jeong-Hwan Lee;Se-Jun Lee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.265-279
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to compare and review behavioral economics models that explain stock price changes after large-scale price shocks in the Korean stock market and to find a suitable model. In this paper, among the theories reviewed, it was confirmed that the anchoring heuristics theory has high explanatory power for stock prices after large-scale stock price fluctuations. Design/methodology/approach - This paper conducts an event study on stock price shocks in which the individual stocks that make up the KOSPI200 index show more than 10% fluctuation on a daily basis. In order to materialize the abstract predictions of heuristics theories in a varifiable form, this paper uses the daily stock price index change as a reference point for availability heuristics, and uses the 52-week highest and lowest price as reference point for anchoring heuristics. Research implications or Originality - As a result of the empirical analysis, the stock price reversals did not consistently appear for changes in the daily index. On the other hand, the stock price drifts consistently appeared around the 52-week highest and the 52-week lowest price. And in the multiple regression analysis that controlled for company-specific and event-specific variables, the results that supported the anchoring heuristics were more evident. These results suggest that it is possible to establish an investment strategy using large-scale price change in Korean stock market.

Effects of Heuristic Type on Purchase Intention in Mobile Social Commerce : Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Shopping Value (모바일 소셜커머스에서 휴리스틱 유형이 구매의도에 미치는 영향 : 쇼핑가치의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • KIM, Jin-Kwon;YANG, Hoe-Chang
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the heuristic type of consumers affecting purchase decision making and the intention of shopping value in their relationship to derive mobile social commerce purchase promotion plans. Research design, data, and methodology - A research model was constructed to relate the mediating effect of shopping value between heuristic types and purchase intentions. A total of 233 valid questionnaires were used for analysis for users using mobile social commerce. The statistical program used SPSS 24.0 and AMOS 24.0, and correlation analysis, regression analysis, and 3-step parametric regression analysis were used for the analysis. Results - The results of the analysis showed that representativeness heuristics, availability heuristics, adjustment heuristics, and affect heuristics had a statistically significant effect on the utilitarian value and the hedonic value. On the other hand, affect heuristics among the heuristic types were found to have the greatest influence not only on the utilitarian value but also on the hedonic value. The two types of shopping value were found to be partially mediated between representativeness heuristics and purchase intentions, between adjustment heuristics and purchase intentions, and fully mediated between availability heuristics and purchase intentions, affect heuristics and purchase intentions. Conclusions - These findings suggest that mobile social commerce companies should check in advance how consumer heuristic types affect purchase intentions. In particular, affect heuristics are caused by consumers' emotional mood such as mood or external stimulus being more important to decision making than rational decision making. Therefore, the result of this study suggests that it can be an important factor to secure the competitiveness that the potential customers who access to use mobile social commerce can feel enough fun and enjoyment in the platform provided by the company. It is also worth paying attention to the utilitarian and hedonic values perceived by consumers. This is because the judgment regarding the economic, convenience and important information provided by the mobile social commerce users affects the purchase intention through the trust of the information, past use, and shopping experience displayed on the mobile social commerce platform.

Multi-Level Redundancy Allocation Optimization Problems (다수준 시스템의 중복 할당 최적화 문제)

  • Yun, Won Young;Chung, Il Han;Kim, Jong Woon
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.135-146
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    • 2017
  • This paper considers redundancy optimization problems of multi-level systems and reviews existing papers which proposed various optimization models and used different algorithms in this research area. Three different mathematical models are studied: Multi-level redundancy allocation (MRAP), multiple multi-level redundancy allocation, and availability-based MRAP models. Many meta-heuristics are applied to find optimal solutions in the several optimization problems. We summarized key idea of meta-heuristics applied to the existing MARP problems. Two extended models (MRAP with interval reliability of units and an integrated optimization problem of MRAP and preventive maintenance) are studied and further research ideas are discussed.

Simultaneous Optimization of Level of Repair and Spare Parts Allocation for MIME Systems under Availability Constraint with Simulation and a Meta-heuristic (가용도 제약하에 시뮬레이션과 메타 휴리스틱을 이용한 MIME 시스템의 수리수준 및 수리부속 할당 동시 최적화)

  • Chung, Il-Han;Yun, Won-Young;Kim, Ho-Gyun
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, an analysis problem of repair levels and spare part allocation for MIME(Multi indenture multi echelon) systems is studied using simulation and meta-heuristics. We suggest a method to determine simultaneously repair levels and spare parts allocation to minimize the life cycle cost of MIME system under availability constraint. A simulated annealing method is used to analyze the repair levels and genetic algorithm is used to obtain the optimal allocation of spare parts. We also develop a simulation system to calculate the life cycle cost and system availability. Some numerical examples are also studied.

Dispatching rules for assembly job shops with process times relying on machine capacity (장비가용능력에 의존적인 공정시간을 가지는 조립주문생산에서의 우선순위 규칙)

  • Kim, Bong-Hyeok;Na, Dong-Gil;Gil, Guk-Ho;Kim, Dong-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.517-522
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    • 2005
  • This paper addresses scheduling heuristics for an assembly job-shop that includes at least an assembly process throughout its processes. The assembly job shop has certain characteristics not only considering the precedence relationship between the processes but also considering the processing progress between the parts. In addition, it probably presents a different processing time for the same product according to the order of processes and the point of workable time, due to the difference in the availability of equipments. The paper proposes several priority-based dispatching rules that consider these characteristics of the assembly job-shop, aiming to minimize the total tardiness of products in the shop floor. Computational tests showed that job due date based priority rules significantly outperform existing priority rules in terms of total tardiness.

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Perception-based analytical technique of evacuation behavior under radiological emergency: An illustration of the Kori area

  • Kim, Jeongsik;Kim, Byoung-Jik;Kim, Namhun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.825-832
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    • 2021
  • A simulation-based approach is proposed to study the protective actions taken by residents during nuclear emergencies using cognitive findings. Human perception-based behaviors are not heavily incorporated in the evacuation study for nuclear emergencies despite their known importance. This study proposes a generic framework of perception-based behavior simulation, in accordance with the ecological concept of affordance theory and a formal representation of affordance-based finite state automata. Based on the generic framework, a simulation model is developed to allow an evacuee to perceive available actions and execute one of them according to Newton's laws of motion. The case of a shadow evacuation under nuclear emergency is utilized to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. The illustrated planning algorithm enables residents to compute not only prior knowledge of the environmental map, but also the perception of dynamic surroundings, using widely observed heuristics. The simulation results show that the temporal and spatial dynamics of the evacuation behaviors can be analyzed based on individual perception of circumstances, while utilizing the findings in cognitive science under unavoidable data restriction of nuclear emergencies. The perception-based analysis of the proposed framework is expected to enhance nuclear safety technology by complementing macroscopic analyses for advanced protective measures.

Enhancement in Coexistence Capability via Virtual Channel Management for IEEE 802.15.4 LR-WPANs (가상 채널 관리를 통한 IEEE 802.15.4 LR-WPAN의 공존 능력 향상 기법)

  • Kim Tae-Hyun;Ha Jae-Yeol;Choi Sung-Hyun;Kwon Wooh-Hyun
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.5C
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    • pp.519-533
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    • 2006
  • The number of channels specified in IEEE 802.15.4 Low-Rate Wireless Personal Area Networks(LRWPANs) is too few to operate many applications of WPANs in the same area. To overcome this limit, we introduce Virtual Channel, a novel concept to increase the number of available channels when various WPAN applications coexist. Basically, a virtual channel is a newly-created channel via superframe scheduling within the inactive period of a logical channel preoccupied by other WPANs. To maximize the coexistence capability of WPANs using virtual channels, we propose Least Collision superframe scheduler(LC-scheduler), its less complex heuristics both for a given single channel, and Virtual Channel Selector(VCS) to efficiently manage multiple available logical channels. In addition, a simple but practical synchronization method is developed to compensate different time drifts among coexisting WPANs. The simulation results demonstrate that a remarkable improvement on the coexistence capability of the 802.15.4 can be achieved through the proposed schemes.

A Path Generation Method Considering the Work Behavior of Operators for an Intelligent Excavator (운전자의 작업행태를 고려한 지능형 굴삭기의 이동경로 생성 방법)

  • Kim, Sung-Keun;Koo, Bonsang
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4D
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    • pp.433-442
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    • 2010
  • Recent decrease in the availability of experienced skilled labor and a corresponding lack of new entrants has required the need for automating many of the construction equipment used in the construction industry. In particular, excavators are widely used throughout earthwork operations and automating its tasks enables work to be performed with higher productivity and safety. This paper introduces an optimal path generation method which is one of the core technologies required to make "Intelligent" excavators a reality. The method divides a given earthwork area into unit cells, identifies networks created by linking these cells, and identifies the optimal path an excavator should follow to minimize its total transportation costs. In addition, the method also accounts for drainage direction and path continuity to ensure that the generated path considers site specific conditions.