• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.91-106
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• 1992

It an inventory control system, the demand over time are often assumed to be independently identically distributed (i. i. d.). However, the demands may well be correlated over time in many situations. The estimation of reorder points is not simple for correlated demands with variable lead time. In this paper, a general class of autoregressive and moving average processes is considered for modeling the demands of an inventory item. The first four moments of the lead-time demand (L) are derived and used to approximate the distribution of L. The reorder points at given service level are then estimated by the three approximation methods : normal approximation, Charlier series and Pearson system. Numerical investigation shows that the Pearson system and the Charlier series performs extremely well for various situations whereas the normal approximation show consistent underestimation and sensitive to the distribution of lead time. The same conclusion can be reached when the parameters are estimated from the sample based on the simulation study.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.48-55
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• 2003

Hidden Markov Model(HMM) has a doubly embedded stochastic process with an underlying stochastic process that can be observed through another set of stochastic processes. This structure of HMM is useful for modeling vector sequence that doesn't look like a stochastic process but has a hidden stochastic process. So, HMM approach has become popular in various areas in last decade. The increasing popularity of HMM is based on two facts : rich mathematical structure and proven accuracy on critical application. In this paper, we applied continuous HMM (CHMM) approach with AR coefficient to detect and predict the chatter of lathe bite and to diagnose the wear of oil Journal bearing using rotor shaft displacement. Our examples show that CHMM approach is very efficient method for machine health monitoring and prediction.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.34-49
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• 1984

The stability of machine tool systems is analyzed by considering the machining process as a stochastic process without decomposing into machine tool structural dynamics and cutting processes. In doing so the time series analysis technique developed by Wu and Pandit is applied systematically to the relative vibration between cutting tool and work- piece measured under actual working conditions. Various characteristic properties derived from the fitted ARMA(Autoregressive Moving Average) Models and those from raw data directly are investigated in relation with the system stability. Both damping ratio and absolute value of the characteristic roots of the AR part of the most significant dynamic mode are preferred as stability indicating factors to the other pro-perties such as theoretical variance .gamma. (o) or absolute power of the most dominant dynamic mode. Maximum aplitude during a certain interval and variance estimated from raw data are shown to be very sensi- tive to the type of the signal and the location of measurement point although they can be obtained rather easily. The relative vibration signal is also analyzed by FFT(Fast Fourier Transform) Analyzer for the purpose of comparison with the spectrums derived from the fitted ARMA models.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.903-909
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• 1997

The ordinary least squares estimator and the corresponding pivotal statistics have been widely used for the unit test. Recently several test criteria based on maximum likelihood estimators and weighted symmetric estimator have been proposed for testing the unit root hypothesis in the autoregressive processes. Pantula at el. (1994) showed that the weighted symmetric estimator has good power properties. In this article we use an adjusted estimator for mean in the model when we use weighted symmetric estimator. A simulation study shows that for the small samples, this new test criterion has better power properties than the weighted symmetric estimator.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.23 no.9A
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• pp.2289-2304
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• 1998

For the performance analysis and traffic control of ATM networks carrying video sequences, need an appropriate video traffic model. In this paper, we propose a new traffic model for MPEG compressed videos which are widely used for any type of video applications at th emoment. The proposed modeling scheme uses scene-based traffic characteristics and considers the correlation between frames of consecutiv GOPs. Using a simple scene detection algorithm, scene changes are modeled by state transitions and the number of GOPs of a scene state is modeled by a geometric distirbution. Frames of a scene stte are modeled by mean I, P, and B frame size. For more accurate traffic modeling, quantization errors (residual bits) that the state transition model using mean values has are compensated by autoregressive processes. We show that our model very well captures the traffic chracteristics of the original videos by performance analysis in terms of autocorrelation, histogram of frame bits genrated by the model, and cell loss rate in the ATM multiplexer with limited buffers. Our model is able to perrorm translations between levels (i.e., GOP, frame, and cell levels) and to estimate very accurately the stochastic characteristics of the original videos by each level.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.115-122
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• 2015

This article is concerned with count time series taking values in non-negative integers. Along with the first order mean of the count time series, conditional variance (volatility) has recently been paid attention to and therefore various integer-valued GARCH(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have been suggested in the last decade. We introduce diverse integer-valued GARCH(INGARCH, for short) processes to count time series and a real data application is illustrated as a case study. In addition, zero inflated INGARCH models are discussed to accommodate zero-inflated count time series.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.400-407
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• 2022

Innovations significantly affect the efficiency of the socioeconomic systems of the regions, acting as a system-forming element of their development. Modern models of economic development also consider innovation activity, intellectual potential, knowledge as the basic factors for stimulating the economic growth of the region. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological foundations for evaluating the effectiveness of a regional innovation system based on a multidimensional analysis of its effects. To further study the effectiveness of RIS, we have used one of the methods of multidimensional statistical analysis - canonical analysis. The next approach allows adding another important requirement to the methodological provision of evaluation of the level of innovation development of industries and regions, namely - the time factor, the formalization of which is realized in autoregressive dynamic economic and mathematical models and can be used in our research. Multidimensional Statistical Analysis for RIS effectiveness estimation was used to model RIS by typological regression. Based on it, multiple regression models were built in groups of regions with low and relatively high innovation potential. To solve the methodological problem of RIS research, we can also use the approach to the system as a "box" with inputs and outputs.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.395-406
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• 2022

This paper studies the outlier detection method for multivariate long memory time series. The existing outlier detection methods are based on a short memory VARMA model, so they are not suitable for multivariate long memory time series. It is because higher order of autoregressive model is necessary to account for long memory, however, it can also induce estimation instability as the number of parameter increases. To resolve this issue, we propose outlier detection methods based on the VHAR structure. We also adapt the robust estimation method to estimate VHAR coefficients more efficiently. Our simulation results show that our proposed method performs well in detecting outliers in multivariate long memory time series. Empirical analysis with stock index shows RVHAR model finds additional outliers that existing model does not detect.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.22-28
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• 2021

Multivariate processes, such as chemical and mechanical process, power plants are operated in a state where several facilities are complexly connected, the fault of a particular system can also have fatal consequences for the entire process. In addition, since process data is measured in an unstable environment, outlier is likely to be include in the data. Therefore, monitoring technology is essential, which can remove outlier from measured data and detect failures in advance. In this paper, data obtained from dynamic and multivariate process models was used to detect fault in various type of processes. The dynamic process is a simulation of a process with autoregressive property, and the multivariate process is a model that describes a situation when a specific sensor fault. Mahalanobis distance was used to remove outlier contained in the data generated by dynamic process model and multivariate process model, and fault detection was performed using ICA. For comparison, we compared performance with and a conventional single ICA method. The proposed fault detection method improves performance by 0.84%p for bias data and 6.82%p for drift data in the dynamic process. In the case of the multivariate process, the performance was improves by 3.78%p, therefore, the proposed method showed better fault detection performance.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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• v.9C no.4
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• pp.489-496
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• 2002

This study proposes a new polling algorithm allowing dynamic change in polling period based on line utilization prediction. Polling is the most important function in network monitoring, but excessive polling data causes rather serious congestion conditions of network when network is In congestion. Therefore, existing multiple polling algorithms decided network congestion or load of agent with previously performed polling Round Trip Time or line utilization, chanced polling period, and controlled polling traffic. But, this algorithm is to change the polling period based on the previous polling and does not reflect network conditions in the current time to be polled. A algorithm proposed in this study is to predict whether polling traffic exceeds threshold of line utilization on polling path based on the past data and to change the polling period with the prediction. In this study, utilization of each line configuring network was predicted with AR model and violation of threshold was presented in probability. In addition, suitability was evaluated by applying the proposed dynamic polling algorithm based on line utilization prediction to the actual network, reasonable level of threshold for line utilization and the violation probability of threshold were decided by experiment. Performance of this algorithm was maximized with these processes.