• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.79-89
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• 2023

The paper aims to investigate the asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships between inflation and remittance outflows in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (hereafter KSA) over the period 1971-2019 by using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The statistical tests have supported the validity and stability of the model. The Wald F-test statistics confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the model variables; remittance outflows, positive (negative) shocks in inflation rates, investment, real GDP, and trade openness. Moreover, the empirical results confirm the existence of an asymmetric effect of the inflation rate on remittance outflows. The response of foreign workers to an increase in inflation rates differs from their response to a decrease in inflation rates. However, this asymmetric relationship between the increases/decreases in inflation and remittance outflows is significantly weak. The weakness of this relationship is due to the high marginal remittance propensity of migrant workers, which is explained by the low consumption propensity of foreign workers and their ability to adjust to the high cost of living due to inflation and the imposition of accompanying fees. Finally, the change in the inflation rate is not among the main factors influencing foreign remittance decisions in Saudi Arabia.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.177-187
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• 2022

Theoretical literature agrees on the interaction between financial instability and economic activity but explains it's dynamic in two points of view: one is that the transmission mechanism occurs in one unique regime and the other reckons a shift of regime leads to the alteration of the transmission mechanism. This study aims to find evidence of the multi-regime transmission for ASEAN developing countries. The author employs the technique of Threshold vector auto regression using the financial stress index standing for financial instability. Monthly data is collected, covering a period long enough with many episodes of high stress in recent decades. There are two conclusions: (1) A financial shock has a negative and stronger impact on economic activity during a high-stress period than it does during a low-stress period; (2) the response of economic activity to a negative financial shock during high-stress periods is stronger than it is during normal times. The findings point to the importance of the financial stress index as an additional early warning indicator for the real economy sector, as well as the positive effect that a reduction in financial stress may have on economic activity, implying the importance of "unconventional" monetary policy in times of high financial stress.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.351-364
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• 2023

Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.75-93
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• 2022

Purchasing Power Parity (hereafter, PPP) means the purchasing power of two currencies is the same when one is converted into the other one. According to previous studies on PPP, as the volatility of the real exchange rate is smaller, PPP may be more likely to hold. Since New Zealand adopted the inflation targeting policy in December 1989, many countries started to adopt it as their monetary policy frame. Previous studies on inflation targeting found that inflation targeting policy has positive effects on not only achieving price stability but also reducing the volatility of nominal/ real exchange rates. Therefore, in this study, I explored whether inflation targeting policy has positive effects on purchasing power parity subject to 19 OECD countries, applying an Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR) model during the sample periods, from 1974:Q1 to 2019:Q4. Based on the ESTAR estimate results, I found limited favorable evidence of PPP for only two countries- England and Switzerland- among 9 inflation targeters, compared to non-inflation targeters, and also I found that favorable evidence of PPP only for these two countries among 9 inflation targeters during post-inflation targeting, but not during pre-inflation targeting. These findings imply that the positive effects of inflation targeting on PPP may be questionable unlike Ding and Kim (2012) and Kim (2014)'s study.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.151-178
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• 2016

The primary goal of the current study was to investigate the longitudinal relationship between household income, main caregiver depression, and youth aggression from the interactionist perspective. The data were derived by combining the 2006, 2009 and 2012 survey waves from the Korean Welfare Panel Study. This data set covered the full span of adolescence from elementary to high school. The study utilized 561 families as the final sample and conducted autoregressive cross-lagged analysis. As a result, the early income status, main caregiver depression and youth aggression were likely maintained over time. Second, the results provided support for a reciprocal relationship between income and main caregiver depression. On the other hand, the reciprocal relationship between main caregiver depression and youth aggression was not found in the current study. Finally, the mediating effect of main caregiver depression between income and youth aggression was not found in the present study. In conclusion, the results of this study support the interactionist model in that the association between family income and main caregiver depression involves reciprocity and mutual influence across time. These findings have major implications for policy and interventions in regards to low-income families.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.12
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• pp.62-70
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• 2019

The study used cross-lagged path modeling to examine the longitudinal associations between self-esteem and community spirit among adolescents. This is a longitudinal study designed to examine the developmental changes of adolescents' self-esteem and community spirit in Korea. This study used the data collected by the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) from 2014 through 2016. Participants were surveyed from the 5^th grade to the 7^th, which belonged to the 1^st elementary school cohort panel of the KCYPS. To be used as the data of this study, children should have all information at 3-time points: the 5^th grade; 6^th grade; 7^th grade. The collected data were analyzed with PSAW 18.0 and AMOS statistical program. The participants in this study were 903 males (51.6%) and 847 females (48.4%). The level of self-esteem was 3.29±.51, 3.19±.55, and 3.15±.57 point at 5^th grade, 6^th grade, and 7^th grade each. The level of community spirit was 3.12±.52, 3.09±.59, 3.15±.55 point respectively. Community spirit from elementary school to middle school is consistently predicted by previous self-esteem. Likewise self-esteem has a significant predictive effect on subsequent community spirit.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.299-323
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• 2021

This study investigated the impact of information and communication technology (ICT), trade openness, financial development, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions in Korea from 1990 to 2016. The cointegration relationship of the variables was confirmed by an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. In the long-run, economic growth was statistically significant factor in the increase in CO₂ emissions, while other factors, as well as ICT, did not significant factors in the changes in CO₂ emissions. In the long-run, a link between economic growth and CO₂ emissions has been confirmed, but other factors, including ICT, have not been able to confirm the link between CO₂ emissions in the long-run. Meanwhile, in the short-run, economic growth and ICT increased CO₂ emissions, and financial development led to a decrease in CO₂ emissions. Trade openness did not have a significant effect on CO₂ emissions in the short-run as in the long-run. In particular, ICT did not contribute to the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the short-run as well as the long-run. In order to induce CO₂ mitigation through ICT, the development and deployment of technology that efficiently save energy by using ICT should be further promoted.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.91-106
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• 2024

Around the world, many countries experiencing the issue of shrinking cities are continually expanding high-speed rail networks to enhance regional accessibility and address imbalances. This study analyzed the effects of high-speed train operations on the age-specific population migration in South Korean municipalities from 2012 to 2019, taking into account the risk levels of shrinking cities. For this purpose, an analysis was conducted using age-specific net in-migration population as the dependent variable, employing the spatial panel autoregressive model. The research results indicated that the influence of high-speed rail on regional population inflow varies depending on the risk level of shrinking city. In other words, high-speed railway operations had positive effects on population inflow in the capital areas and some major cities, while explained population outflow in the other regions. High-speed railways particularly exerted a significant impact on the inflow of the young and middle-aged population, representing the working age, but this effect was also limited to regions with a low risk of shrinkage. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of considering planned population and industrial attraction when installing high-speed rail with the goal of achieving regional balanced development and mitigating shrinkage. The results of this study also suggest the need for subsequent research to explore factors that positively influence population structure and inflow based on the level of shrinkage risk in each region, as well as the introduction of new policies tailored to the specific situations of each local government.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1033-1043
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• 2011

In this paper, we use a nested family of models of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity(GARCH) to verify asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity in the KOSPI and Won-Dollar exchange rate. This study starts from an investigation of whether time series data have asymmetric features not explained by standard GARCH models. First, we use kernel density plot to show the non-normality and asymmetry in data as well as to capture asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity. Later, we use three representative asymmetric heteroscedastic models, EGARCH(Exponential Garch), GJR-GARCH(Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle), APARCH(Asymmetric Power Arch) that are improved from standard GARCH models to give a better explanation of asymmetry. Thereby we highlight the fact that volatility tends to respond asymmetrically according to positive and/or negative values of past changes referred to as the leverage effect. Furthermore, it is verified that how the direction of asymmetry is different depending on characteristics of time series data. For the KOSPI and Korean won-US dollar exchange rate, asymmetric heteroscedastic model analysis successfully reveal the leverage effect. We obtained predictive values of conditional volatility and its prediction standard errors by using moving block bootstrap.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.297-314
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• 2012

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the number of nursing staffs and skill mix and to assess the effectiveness of hospital nurse expansion policies in Korea. Methods : The trend of the number of nursing staffs and skill mix were analyzed using time series data, which composed of yearly series data from 1975 to 2009. The impact of hospital nurse expansion policies was estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) intervention model. Results : The number of general hospital and hospital nurses per 100 beds was decreased in late 1980s and late 1990s due to rapid growth of beds. As a result of the number of nurse aids per 100 beds decreased, skill mix became high in general hospital but nurse ratio among hospital nursing staffs was about 50%. Expansion of new nurse and revised differentiated inpatient fee were only effective in expansion of hospital nursing staffs. But they had no effect in general hospitals. Conclusion : In Korea, a few policies related to expansion of hospital nurses have an effect on increasing the number of hospital nurse. Nevertheless, level of hospital nursing staffs is inferior to that of general hospital.