• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.755-775
• /
• 2022

동 연구는 휘발유 가격 수준에 따른 국제 유가에 대한 국내 가격 조정의 비대칭성을 분위수 자기회귀시차분포 모형을 사용하여 확인한다. 추정에 사용된 자료는 2008년 5월 첫 번째 주부터 2022년 10월 두 번째 주까지의 주간 평균 두바이유가, 정유사 휘발유가, 주유소 휘발유가이다. 추정은 두바이유가에 대한 주유소 휘발유 가격, 두바이유가에 대한 정유사 휘발유 가격, 정유사 휘발유 가격에 대한 주유소 가격의 변화, 세 가지에 대해 이루어졌다. 추정 결과, 두바이유가에 대한 정유사 휘발유 가격의 조정은 휘발유 가격의 모든 분위에 걸쳐 비대칭적으로 나타난 반면 두바이유가와 정유사 휘발유 가격에 대한 주유소 가격의 조정은 휘발유 가격의 분위수가 높을수록 비대칭적으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과는 휘발유 가격 변화에 따른 주유소의 재고 비용 변화에 기인하는 것으로 추측된다. 재고 비용에 대한 부담이 높을수록 주유소에게는 상승한 휘발유의 매입가격을 보다 적극적으로 판매가격에 전가하고자 하는 유인이 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권9호
• /
• pp.165-176
• /
• 2021

The paper has used the Solow-Swan growth model to analyze the long-term impact of credit market development and stock market development on economic growth in Asia from 2000 to 2019. The empirical model is performed with panel cointegration analysis by Common Correlated Effects (CCE) method with cross-sectional dependencies. The results find that there exists a cointegration relationship among stock market, credit market development, and economic growth. These results also show that financial structure improves the exact impact of financial development on economic growth, namely the opposite effect of stock market development and credit market development. Moreover, the Granger causality test reveals a bi-directional relationship between credit market development and economic growth, while only unidirectional causality from stock market development to economic growth for the whole group panel. And it is different for a specific country, according to Kónya's test. The view of the new structuralism does not apply in the Asian financial system when we estimate the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL) to analyze the asymmetric relationship between financial structure and economic growth. On the whole, policymakers can draw on the findings to provide policy implications to improve their country's financial system as well as pursue the goal of sustainable economic growth.

• 한국의류학회지
• /
• 제46권5호
• /
• pp.868-889
• /
• 2022

Fashion companies are using a big data approach as a key strategic analysis to predict and forecast sales. This study investigated the effectiveness of the past sales, web search volume, information amount, brand promotion, and the advertising endorser on the sales forecasting model. The study conducted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) time series model using the internal and external social big data of a national fashion brand. Results indicated that the brand's past sales, search volume, promotion, and amount of advertising endorser information amount significantly affected the sales forecast, whereas the brand's advertising endorser search volume and information amount did not significantly influence the sales forecast. Moreover, the brand's promotion had the highest correlation with sales forecasting. This study adds to information-searching behavior theory by measuring consumers' brand involvement. Last, this study provides digital marketers with implications for developing profitable marketing strategies on the basis of consumers' interest in the brand and advertising endorser.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.79-89
• /
• 2023

The paper aims to investigate the asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships between inflation and remittance outflows in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (hereafter KSA) over the period 1971-2019 by using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The statistical tests have supported the validity and stability of the model. The Wald F-test statistics confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the model variables; remittance outflows, positive (negative) shocks in inflation rates, investment, real GDP, and trade openness. Moreover, the empirical results confirm the existence of an asymmetric effect of the inflation rate on remittance outflows. The response of foreign workers to an increase in inflation rates differs from their response to a decrease in inflation rates. However, this asymmetric relationship between the increases/decreases in inflation and remittance outflows is significantly weak. The weakness of this relationship is due to the high marginal remittance propensity of migrant workers, which is explained by the low consumption propensity of foreign workers and their ability to adjust to the high cost of living due to inflation and the imposition of accompanying fees. Finally, the change in the inflation rate is not among the main factors influencing foreign remittance decisions in Saudi Arabia.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권3호
• /
• pp.289-294
• /
• 2020

The study of environmental pollution plays an important role in controlling emissions in the production activities of FDI enterprises as well as export goods. Vietnam is a country with a large proportion of FDI contribution and high export value. Therefore, there should be studies to assess the actual effects of FDI and the openness of the economy (trade) on the environment. Therefore, the authors conduct research on the role of FDI and trade on environmental quality in Vietnam. With data collected from 1990 to 2018 (from the period of Vietnam's economy opening up) through the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, the results show that FDI has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short term but has no impact on the long-term (In this study, CO2 is considered to represent environmental quality). The trade has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in both the short term and long term. The results of the study show the actual shortcomings of FDI as well as production activities in the export enterprises in Vietnam. From the results of this research, the author also provides the causes and remedies to control of CO2 emissions from two activities of foreign direct investment and trade.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권8호
• /
• pp.533-542
• /
• 2020

This study estimates the nature of the relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment in the Philippines over the 2001-2017 period. The paper employed a range of cointegrating regression models, namely, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models, dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation techniques. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) was also performed to determine the causal link of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The ARDL bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models confirmed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The long-run coefficients from JJ and dynamic OLS show significant long-run and positive relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. While results of the long-run coefficients from fully modified OLS and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) found that only entrepreneurship has significant and positive relationship with youth unemployment in the long-run. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) estimates show evidence of long-run causal relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. In the short-run, increases in entrepreneurship and business confidence causes youth unemployment to decrease.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권5호
• /
• pp.617-626
• /
• 2021

The study examines the existence of twin deficit in two emerging economies (Turkey and Iran) and also investigates the relation of twin deficit with specific macroeconomic indicators such as the GDP, money supply, foreign direct investment, and the interest rate both in short and long-run periods. The twin-deficit concept refers to a situation where the current account deficit and budget deficits exist in the same corresponding period of an economy. This study employs the Bound Test Autoregressive lag distributed (ARDL) model on time-series quarterly secondary data of Turkey and Iran from 1992 to 2019. The stationarity of variables has been ensured through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test at the level and the first difference. The results reveal the existence of a twin deficit in both the short and long-run periods only in Iran. Its existence could not be observed in the Turkish economy. The findings suggest a positive relationship between twin deficit and GDP, and a negative relationship between twin deficit and FDI and M2. At the same time, the relationship of the twin deficit with interest rate could not be found in the Iranian economy. The findings may be helpful for economic managers of both countries in executing their economic policies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권3호
• /
• pp.181-190
• /
• 2021

This paper empirically examines the asymmetric response of the Indonesian Islamic stock market to macroeconomic variables encompassing money supply, domestic output, exchange rate, and Federal Reserve rate. Our study employs the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) after the financial crisis in the Southeast Asian country using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2019. Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag (NARDL) is applied. Our study considers two models consisting of the model without the Federal Reserve rate and the model with it. Our findings confirm the long-run link between Jakarta Islamic Index and macroeconomic factors being studied. Furthermore, the Jakarta Islamic Index asymmetrically responds to broad money supply and exchange rate, but not to domestic output and Federal Reserve rate. A reduction in the money supply has a worse effect on Islamic stock prices as compared to an increase in the money supply. The Jakarta Islamic Index responds differently to depreciation and appreciation. The transmission of the exchange rate to Islamic stock prices occurs only for appreciation. Our study finds an absence of transmission mechanism from the domestic output and the interest rate to Islamic stock prices. Our results imply that the easy money policy and stabilizing currency are key to supporting Indonesian Islamic stock prices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.167-176
• /
• 2022

By analyzing the impact of oil prices on economic growth, this study has shown a new insight into the link between oil price inflation and economic growth. The primary goal of this study is to determine if oil prices are pro-growth or anti-growth. To provide empirical proof, the series data for both the core and control variables from 1972 to 2020 was used to justify the association on empirical grounds. To account for the presence of a unit root, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test was used, and after making the series compatible for co-integration, the Autoregressive distributed lag model was used to determine the empirical estimate. Additionally, the empirical models were used to diagnose heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The reference point model reveals that in developing nations like Pakistan, economic growth is anti-growth with an increase in prices, and it responds negatively to economic growth in the long and short run. As a result, oil price inflation in Pakistan fails to have a significant beneficial impact on economic growth in both the long and short run, but it does raise the general price level in the economy.

• 아태비즈니스연구
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.351-364
• /
• 2023

Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.