• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.3 no.2
• /
• pp.77-83
• /
• 1996

This paper is concerned with an estimation problem for the AR(1) process $Y_t, t=0, {\pm}1, {\cdots}$with time carying autoregressive coefficient, where coefficient itself is also stochastic process. Attention is directed to the problem of finding a consistent estimator of ${\Phi}$, the mean level of autoregressive coefficient. The asymptotic distribution of the resulting consistent estimator of ${\Phi}$, is them discussed. We do not assume any time series model for the time varying autoregressive coefficient.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.859-870
• /
• 2018

Dried red peppers are a staple agricultural product used in Korean cuisine and as such, are an important aspect of agricultural producers' income. Correctly forecasting both their supply and demand situations and price is very important in terms of the producers' income and consumer price stability. The primary objective of this study was to compare the performance of time series forecasting models for dried red peppers in Korea. In this study, three models (an autoregressive model with exogenous variables [ARX], AR-exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity [EGARCH], and ARX-EGARCH) are presented for forecasting the wholesale price of dried red peppers. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that the ARX model and ARX-EGARCH model, each of which adopt both the rolling window and the adding approach and use the agricultural cooperatives price as the exogenous variable, showed a better forecasting performance compared to the autoregressive model (AR)-EGARCH model. Based on the estimation methods and results, there was no significant difference in the accuracy of the estimation between the rolling window and adding approach. In the case of dried red peppers, there is limitation in building the price forecasting models with a market-structured approach. In this regard, estimating a forecasting model using only price data and identifying the forecast performance can be expected to complement the current pricing forecast model which relies on market shipments.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.441-450
• /
• 2010

In this paper we consider the problem of forecasting binomial time series, modelled by the binomial autoregressive model. This paper considers proposed by McKenzie (1985) and is extended to a higher order by $Wei{\ss}$(2009). Since the binomial autoregressive model is a Markov chain, we can apply the earlier work of Bu and McCabe (2008) for integer valued autoregressive(INAR) model to the binomial autoregressive model. We will discuss how to compute the h-step-ahead forecast of the conditional probabilities of $X_{T+h}$ when T periods are used in fitting. Then we obtain the maximum likelihood estimator of binomial autoregressive model and use it to derive the maximum likelihood estimator of the h-step-ahead forecast of the conditional probabilities of $X_{T+h}$. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to a data set previously analyzed by $Wei{\ss}$(2009).

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
• /
• 1999.06a
• /
• pp.29-32
• /
• 1999

In this study, the time delay model were simulated using the well-known AR model. Frequency response of the time delay model can be obtained by mapping AR model to JTC model in the time domain. That is, from the few measurement data in JTC model, the channel frequency response can be obtained by the estimation of AR model parameters. From this channel frequency response, the time delay model can be obtained using Fourier transformation. To prove the validity of the suggested method, three models of JTC were shown and analyzed.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
• /
• v.17B no.1
• /
• pp.47-54
• /
• 2010

Old archived film shows two major defects: line scratch and blobs. In this paper, we present a design and implementation of an automatic video restoration system for line scratches observed in archived film. We use autoregressive (AR) image model because we can make stochastic and specifically autoregressive image generation process with our PAST-PRESENT model and Sampling Pattern. We designed locality maximizing scanning pattern, which can generate nearly stationary time-like series of pixels, which is a strong requirement for a stochastic series to be autoregressive. The sampled pixel series undergoes filtering and model fitting using Durbin-Levinson algorithm before interpolation process. We designed three-stage film restoration system, which includes (1) film acquisition from VHS tapes, (2) simple line scratch detection and restoration, and (3) manual blob identification and sophisticated inpainting scheme. We implemented film acquisition and simple inpainting scheme on Texas Instruments DSP board TMS320DM642 EVM, and implemented our AR inpainting scheme on PC for sophisticated restoration. We experimented our scheme with two old Korean films: "Viva Freedom" and "Robot Tae-Kwon-V", and the experimental results show that our scheme improves Bertalmio's scheme for subjective quality (MOS), objective quality (PSNR), and especially restoration ratio (RR), which reflects how much similar to the manual inpainting results.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.447-468
• /
• 2010

The purpose of this study was to attain a clearer understanding of the reciprocal effects of deviant self-concept and delinquent behaviors by applying a latent state-trait autoregressive modeling approach. Although traditional autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) modeling has been widely applied to test the longitudinal reciprocal relationship between the two constructs, it could produce misspecified findings if there were trait-like processes involved in this relationship. The latent state-trait autoregressive(LST-AR) modeling was applied to control trait effects of deviant self-concept and to examine the reciprocal causal relations between the two constructs. Data were taken from a sample of 3,449 eighth graders who were followed annually for 5 years from the Korea Youth Panel Study. The combining LST-AR model with ARCL model substantiated the reciprocal effects of deviant self-concept and delinquent behaviors, even after the stable trait component of deviant self-concept was taken into account. The present findings shed lights on the reciprocal effects of behaviors (i.e., delinquency) and self concepts (i.e., deviant self-concept). Not only did behaviors change corresponding self-concept, but the ways adolescents perceived themselves influenced their behaviors.

• International Journal of Safety
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.1-5
• /
• 2004

This study discusses frequency analysis based on autoregressive (AR) time series model, and the characterization of surface quality in orthogonal cutting of a fiber-matrix composite materials. A sparsely distributed idealized composite material, namely a glass reinforced polyester (GFRP) was used as workpiece. Analysis method employs a force sensor and the signals from the sensor are processed using AR time series model. The experimental correlations between the fiber pull-out and AR model coefficients are then established.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.7 no.5
• /
• pp.333-344
• /
• 2004

This paper illustrates application of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and the autoregressive (AR) model to simulate large wind pressures due to gusts on a low-rise building. In the POD analysis, the covariance of the ensemble of large wind pressures is employed to calculate the principal modes and coordinates. The POD principal coordinates are modeled using the AR process, and the fitted AR models are employed to generate the principal coordinates. The generated principal coordinates are then used to simulate large wind pressures. The results show that the structure characterizing large wind pressures is well represented by the dominant eigenmodes (up to the first fifteen eigenmodes). Also, wind pressures with large peak values are simulated very well using the dominant eigenmodes along with the principal coordinates generated by the AR models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.32 no.6
• /
• pp.909-922
• /
• 2019

In this paper, we study the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) for the unstable autoregressive (AR) model. To identify the existence of the unit root, we apply the adaptive LASSO to the augmented Dickey-Fuller regression model, not the original AR model. We illustrate our method with simulations and a real data analysis. Simulation results show that the adaptive LASSO obtained by minimizing the Bayesian information criterion selects the order of the autoregressive model as well as the degree of differencing with high accuracy.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.167-178
• /
• 1994

To estimate coefficient matrix in autoregressive model, usually ordinary least squares estimator or unconditional maximum likelihood estimator is used. It is unknown that for univariate AR(p) model, unconditional maximum likelihood estimator gives better power property that ordinary least squares estimator in testing for unit root with mean estimated. When autoregressive model contains multiple unit roots and unconditional likelihood function is used to estimate coefficient matrix, the seperation of nonstationary part and stationary part of the eigen-values in the estimated coefficient matrix in the limit is developed. This asymptotic property may give an idea to test for multiple unit roots.