• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.203-215
• /
• 2003

In order to provide the drivers with more reliable transportation information in NHTMS(National Highway Transportation Management System), it is important to estimate the expected passage time by using the traffic volume and speed. In this study, we analyze the characteristics of the traffic volume in the national highway and we investigate two real-time adjustment methods: the average adjustment method and the auto-regressive adjustment method. In addition, we compare them using the real data collected at the National Highway Route 3 in 2000.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.17 no.6
• /
• pp.1031-1053
• /
• 2016

The health conditions of in-service civil infrastructures can be evaluated by employing structural health monitoring technology. A reliable health evaluation result depends heavily on the quality of the data collected from the structural monitoring sensor network. Hence, the problem of sensor fault diagnosis has gained considerable attention in recent years. In this paper, an innovative sensor fault diagnosis method that focuses on fault detection and isolation stages has been proposed. The dynamic or auto-regressive characteristic is firstly utilized to build a multivariable statistical model that measures the correlations of the currently collected structural responses and the future possible ones in combination with the canonical correlation analysis. Two different fault detection statistics are then defined based on the above multivariable statistical model for deciding whether a fault or failure occurred in the sensor network. After that, two corresponding fault isolation indices are deduced through the contribution analysis methodology to identify the faulty sensor. Case studies, using a benchmark structure developed for bridge health monitoring, are considered in the research and demonstrate the superiority of the new proposed sensor fault diagnosis method over the traditional principal component analysis-based and the dynamic principal component analysis-based methods.

• Advances in Energy Research
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.131-143
• /
• 2019

Global Solar Radiation (GSR) is the key element for performance estimation of any Solar Power Plant (SPP). Its forecasting may help in estimation of power production from a SPP well in advance, and may also render help in optimal use of this power. Seasonal Auto-Regressive Moving Average (SARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models are combined in order to develop a hybrid model (SARMA-ANN) conceiving the characteristics of both linear and non-linear prediction models. This developed model has been used for prediction of GSR at Gorakhpur, situated in the northern region of India. The proposed model is beneficial for the univariate forecasting. Along with this model, we have also used Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA), SARMA, ANN based models for 1 - 6 day-ahead forecasting of GSR on hourly basis. It has been found that the proposed model presents least RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and produces best forecasting results among all the models considered in the present study. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the grid connected PV plant installed on the parking stands of the University shows the superiority of the proposed model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.56-66
• /
• 2016

Robustness is essential for model based FDI (Fault Detection and Isolation) and it is inevitable to have modeling errors and sensor signal noises during the process of FDI. This study suggests an improved method by applying NARX (Nonlinear Auto Regressive eXogenous) model and Kalman estimator in order to cope with problems caused by linear model errors and sensor signal noises in the process of fault diagnoses. Fault decision is made by the probability of the trend of gradually accumulated errors applying Fuzzy logic, which are robust to instantaneous sensor signal noises. Reliability of fault diagnosis is verified under various fault simulations.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
• /
• v.23 no.8
• /
• pp.1014-1017
• /
• 2012

In this paper, we introduce a method which enhances the azimuth resolution to obtain the high-resolution SAR image. We used ${\omega}-k$ algorithm to obtain the SAR image and extrapolation using auto-regressive(AR) method to enhance the azimuth resolution in the 2-D frequency domain. The AR method is a linear prediction model-based extrapolation technique. In the result, we showed the performance comparison with respect to the target range and the prediction order of Burg algorithm which is one of AR method.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
• /
• 2001.10a
• /
• pp.535-538
• /
• 2001

Since 1990s, many literatures have shown that connectionist models, such as back propagation, recurrent network, and RBF (Radial Basis Function) outperform the traditional models, MA (Moving Average), AR (Auto Regressive), and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) in time series prediction. Neural based approaches to time series prediction require the enough length of historical measurements to generate the enough number of training patterns. The more training patterns, the better the generalization of MLP is. The researches about the schemes of generating artificial training patterns and adding to the original ones have been progressed and gave me the motivation of developing VTG schemes in 1996. Virtual term is an estimated measurement, X(t+0.5) between X(t) and X(t+1), while the given measurements in the series are called actual terms. VTG (Virtual Tern Generation) is the process of estimating of X(t+0.5), and VTG schemes are the techniques for the estimation of virtual terms. In this paper, the alternative VTG schemes to the VTG schemes proposed in 1996 will be proposed and applied to multivariate time series prediction. The VTG schemes proposed in 1996 are called deterministic VTG schemes, while the alternative ones are called stochastic VTG schemes in this paper.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2015.05a
• /
• pp.29-29
• /
• 2015

수자원의 지속적인 관리 및 효율적인 활용을 위하여 수문량의 예측과 분석은 필수적인 과정이라 할 수 있으며 이에 따라 다양한 수문 모형이 구축되고 강우, 유량 등 대표적인 수문량의 예측이 수행되어져 왔다. 그 중에서도 수문 시계열 모형은 시간의 흐름에 따라 일정하게 기록되어온 수문 자료를 확률적인 과정을 통하여 모형을 구축하고 이를 바탕으로 미래 수문량을 예측하는 데활용되는 모형으로, 과거에 기록된 수문 패턴이 미래에도 지속된다는 가정 하에 구축된다. 일반적으로 시계열 모형은 하나의 자료계열로 모형을 구축하는 단변량 모형과 원 자료계열 외에 다른 자료계열을 고려하여 모형을 구축하는 다변량 모형이 있으며, 다변량 모형은 원 자료계열에 영향을 미치는 외부변수를 고려함으로써 두 자료계열간의 상관성을 모형에 반영할 수 있는 장점을 가지고 있다. 또한 자료계열의 계절성을 고려하여 시계열 모형을 구축할 경우, 수문 시계열이 가지고 있는 계절적 영향을 잘 반영할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 계절성을 고려한 다변량 시계열 모형인 SARIMAX(Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous) 모형을 이용하여 대표적인 수공구조물인 댐의 유입량 예측을 수행하였다. 일반적으로 댐 유입량 예측에는 댐의 유입량과 상관성이 높은 강우가 외부변수로 사용되어져 왔으나, 이 외에도 영향을 미칠 수 있는 지점특성치를 고려하여 모형을 구축한 후 비교하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.261-272
• /
• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
• /
• v.40 no.8
• /
• pp.1551-1559
• /
• 2015

Recently, the performance of smart devices is almost similar to that of the existing PCs, thus the users of smart devices can perform similar works such as messengers, SNSs(Social Network Services), smart banking, etc. originally performed in PC environment using smart devices. Although the development of smart devices has led to positive impacts, it has caused negative changes such as an increase in security threat aimed at mobile environment. Specifically, the threats of mobile devices, such as leaking private information, generating unfair billing and performing DDoS(Distributed Denial of Service) attacks has continuously increased. Over 80% of the mobile devices use android platform, thus, the number of damage caused by mobile malware in android platform is also increasing. In this paper, we propose android based malware detection mechanism using time-series analysis, which is one of statistical-based detection methods.We use auto-regressive moving-average model which is extracting accurate predictive values based on existing data among time-series model. We also use fast and exact malware detection method by extracting possible malware data through Z-Score. We validate the proposed methods through the experiment results.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.413-420
• /
• 2008

This paper suggests a marginal logit mixed-effects for analyzing repeated binary response data. Since binary repeated measures are obtained over time from each subject, observations will have a certain covariance structure among them. As a plausible covariance structure, 1st order auto-regressive correlation structure is assumed for analyzing data. Generalized estimating equations(GEE) method is used for estimating fixed effects in the model.