• Title/Summary/Keyword: Area Prediction.

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Assessment and Prediction of Stand Yield in Cryptomeria japonica Stands (삼나무 임분수확량 평가 및 예측)

  • Son, Yeong Mo;Kang, Jin Taek;Hwang, Jeong Sun;Park, Hyun;Lee, Kang Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.3
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    • pp.421-426
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this paper is to look into the growth of Cryptomeria japonica stand in South Korea along with the evaluation on their yields, followed by their carbon stocks and removals. A total of 106 sample plots were selected from Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and Jeju, where the groups of standard are grown. We only used 92 plots data except outlier. As part of the analysis, the Weibull diameter distribution was applied. In order to estimate the diameter distribution, the growth estimation equation for each of the growth factors including the height, the diameter at breast height, and the basal area was drafted out and the verification for each equation was examined. The site index for figuring out the forest productivity of Cryptomeria japonica stand for each district was also developed as a Schumacher model and 30yr was used as a reference age for the estimation of the site index. It was found that the site index for Cryptomeria japonica stand in South Korea ranges from 10 to 16 and this result was used as a standard for developing the stand yield table. According to the site 14 in the stand yield table, the mean annual increment (MAI) of the Cryptomeria japonica reaches $7.6m^3/ha$ on its 25yr and its growing stock is estimated to be at $190.1m^3/ha$. This volume is about $20m^3$ as high as that of the Chamaesyparis obtusa. Furthermore, the annual carbon absorptions for a Cryptomeria japonica stand reached the peak at 25yr, which is 2.14 tC/ha/yr, $7.83tCO_2/ha/yr$. When compared to the other conifers, this rate is slightly higher than that of a Chamaecyparis obtusa ($7.5tCO_2/ha/yr$) but lower than that of the Pinus koraiensis ($10.4tCO_2/ha/yr$) and Larix kaempferi ($11.2tCO_2/ha/yr$). With such research result as a base, it is necessary to come up with the ways to enhance the utilization of Cryptomeria japonica as timbers, besides making use of their growth data.

Water quality prediction of inflow of the Yongdam Dam basin and its reservoir using SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 models in series to climate change scenarios (SWAT 및 CE-QUAL-W2 모델을 연계 활용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 용담댐 유입수 및 호내 수질 변화 예측)

  • Park, Jongtae;Jang, Yujin;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.10
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    • pp.703-714
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    • 2017
  • This paper analyzes the impact of two climate change scenarios on flow rate and water quality of the Yongdam Dam and its basin using CE-QUAL-W2 and SWAT, respectively. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios by IPCC, simulations were performed for 2016~2095, and the results were rearranged into three separate periods; 2016~2035, 2036~2065 and 2066~2095. Also, the result of each year was divided as dry season (May~Oct) and wet season (Nov~Apr) to account for rainfall effect. For total simulation period, arithmetic average of flow rate and TSS (Total Suspended Solid) and TP (Total Phosphorus) were greater for RCP 4.5 than those of RCP 8.5, whereas TN (Total Nitrogen) showed contrary results. However, when averaged within three periods and rainfall conditions the tendencies were different from each other. As the scenarios went on, the number of rainfall days has decreased and the rainfall intensities have increased. These resulted in waste load discharge from the basin being decreased during the dry period and it being increased in the wet period. The results of SWAT model were used as boundary conditions of CE-QUAL-W2 model to predict water level and water quality changes in the Yongdam Dam. TSS and TP tend to increase during summer periods when rainfalls are higher, while TN shows the opposite pattern due to its weak absorption to particulate materials. Therefore, the climate change impact must be carefully analyzed when temporal and spatial conditions of study area are considered, and water quantity and water quality management alternatives must be case specific.

A Study on the Prediction of Suitability Change of Forage Crop Italian Ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) using Spatial Distribution Model (공간분포모델을 활용한 사료작물 이탈리안 라이그라스(Lolium multiflorum L.)의 재배적지 변동예측연구)

  • Kim, Hyunae;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2014
  • Under climate change, it is likely that the suitable area for forage crop cultivation would change in Korea. The potential cultivation areas for italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.), which has been considered one of an important forage crop in Korea, were identified using the EcoCrop model. To minimize the uncertainty associated with future projection under climate change, an ensemble approach was attempted using five climate change scenarios as inputs to the EcoCrop model. Our results indicated that most districts had relatively high suitability, e.g., >80, for italian ryegrass in South Korea. Still, suitability of the crop was considerably low in mountainous areas because it was assumed that a given variety of italian ryegrass had limited cold tolerance. It was predicted that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2050s but decrease in 2080s in a relatively large number of regions due to high temperature. In North Korea, suitability of italian ryegrass was considerably low, e.g., 28 on average. Under climate change, however, it was projected that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2080s. For example, suitability of italian ryegrass was more than 80 in 10 districts out of 14 by 2080s. Because cold tolerance of italian ryegrass varieties has been improved, it would be preferable to optimize parameters of the EcoCrop model for those varieties. In addition, it would be possible to grow italian ryegrass as the second crop following rice in Korea in the future. Thus, it merits further study to identify suitable areas for italian ryegrass cultivation after rice using new varieties of italian ryegrass.

Prediction of Potential Risk Posed by a Military Gunnery Range after Flood Control Reservoir Construction (홍수조절지 건설 후 사격장 주변지역의 위해성예측 사례연구)

  • Ryu, Hye-Rim;Han, Joon-Kyoung;Nam, Kyoung-Phile;Bae, Bum-Han
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2007
  • Risk assessment was carried out in order to improve the remediation and management strategy on a contaminated gunnery site, where a flood control reservoir is under construction nearby. Six chemicals, including explosive chemicals and heavy metals, which were suspected to possess risk to humans by leaching events from the site were the target pollutants for the assessment. A site-specific conceptual site model was constructed based on effective, reasonable exposure pathways to avoid any overestimation of the risk. Also, conservative default values were adapted to prevent underestimation of the risk when site-specific values were not available. The risks of the six contaminants were calculated by API's Decision Support System for Exposure and Risk Assessment with several assumptions. In the crater-formed-area(Ac), the non-carcinogenic risks(i.e., HI values) of TNT(Tri-Nitro-Toluene) and Cd were slightly larger than 1, and for RDX(Royal Demolition Explosives), over 50. The total non-carcinogenic risk of the whole gunnery range calculated to a significantly high value of 62.5. Carcinogenicity of Cd was estimated to be about $10^{-3}$, while that of Pb was about $5\;{\times}\;10^{-4}$, which greatly exceeded the generally acceptable carcinogenic risk level of $10^{-4}{\sim}10^{-6}$. The risk assessment results suggest that an immediate remediation practice for both carcinogens and non-carcinogens are required before the reservoir construction. However, for more accurate risk assessment, more specific estimations on condition shifts due to the construction of the reservoir are required, and more over, the effects of the pollutants to the ecosystem is also necessary to be evaluated.

Investigation of Norovirus Occurrence and Influence of Environmental Factors in Food Service Institutions of ChungCheong Area (충청지역 집단급식소의 노로바이러스 실태조사와 환경요인의 영향)

  • Jung, Woo-Young;Eom, Joon-Ho;Kim, Byeong-Jo;Yun, Min-Ho;Ju, In-Sun;Kim, Chang-Soo;Kim, Mi-Ra;Byun, Jung-A;Park, You-Gyoung;Son, Sang-Hyuck;Lee, Eun-Mi;Jung, Rae-Seok;Na, Mi-Ae;Yuk, Dong-Yeon;Gang, Ji-Yeon;Heo, Ok-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.153-161
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the appearance of norovirus in the water for food in food service institutions and the influence of physicochemical and microbial factors of norovirus in order to work out basic data to predict the detection of norovirus. Among 82 samples of water for food in food service institutions, norovirus appeared in 7 samples and the rate of appearance was 8.5%. As for the type of norovirus, one samples contained GI type (genotype GI-6) and six samples contained GII type (genotype GII-2, GII-4, GII-12). In the regression model of prediction of norovirus, the rate of appearance was correlated with $NH_3$-N, total solids and the consumption of $KMnO_4$, out of such variables as $NH_3$-N, total solids, the consumption of $KMnO_4$, depth, chloride and total colony counts, and its contribution rate for effectiveness was 78.60%. In order to examine the influential factor of environment upon the detection of norovirus, Pearson's correlation analysis was carried out. The predictable regression formula for appearance rate of norovirus was expressed as -1.818 + 42.677 [$NH_3$-N] + 0.023 [total solids] + 0.762 [consumption of $KMnO_4$] -0.009 [depth] -0.146 [chloride] + 0.007 [total colony counts] (R = 0.904, $R^2$ = 0.818, adjusted $R^2$ = 0.786, p < 0.05). The most influential factors upon the detection of norovirus were $NH_3$-N, total solids and the consumption of $KMnO_4$. In other words, when the measured values of $NH_3$-N, total solids and the consumption of $KMnO_4$ were higher, the possibility of appearance of norovirus increased.

The Generation of Westerly Waves by Sobaek Mountains (소백산맥에 의한 서풍 파동 발생)

  • Kim, Jin wook;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2017
  • The westerly waves generation is described in the advanced earth science textbook used at high school as follows: as westerly wind approaches and blows over large mountains, the air flow shows wave motions in downwind side, which can be explained by the conservation of potential vorticity. However, there has been no case study showing the phenomena of the mesoscale westerly waves with observational data in the area of small mountains in Korea. And thus the wind speed and time persistency of westerly winds along with the width and length of mountains have never been studied to explain the generation of the westerly waves. As a first step, we assured the westerly waves generated in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains based on surface station wind data nearby. Furthermore, the critical or minimum wind velocity of the westerly wind over Sobaek mountains to generate the downwind wave were derived and calcuated tobe about $0.6m\;s^{-1}$ for Sobaek mountains, which means that the westerly waves could be generated in most cases of westerly blowing over the mountains. Using surface station data and 4-dimensional assimilation data of RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) provided by Korea Meteorological Agency, we also analyzed cases of westerly waves occurrence and life cycle in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains for a year of 2014. The westerly waves occurred in meso-${\beta}$ or -${\gamma}$ scales. The westerly waves generated by the mountains disappeared gradually with wind speed decreasing. The occurrence frequency of the vorticity with meso-${\beta}$ scale got to be higher when the stronger westerly wind blew. When we extended the spatial range of the analysis, phenomena of westerly waves were also observed in the downwind side of Yensan mountains in Northeastern China. Our current work will be a study material to help students understand the atmospheric phenomena perturbed by mountains.

Self-Tour Service Technology based on a Smartphone (스마트 폰 기반 Self-Tour 서비스 기술 연구)

  • Bae, Kyoung-Yul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2010
  • With the immergence of the iPhone, the interest in Smartphones is getting higher as services can be provided directly between service providers and consumers without the network operators. As the number of international tourists increase, individual tourists are also increasing. According to the WTO's (World Tourism Organization) prediction, the number of international tourists will be 1.56 billion in 2020,and the average growth rate will be 4.1% a year. Chinese tourists, in particular, are increasing rapidly and about 100 million will travel the world in 2020. In 2009, about 7.8 million foreign tourists visited Korea and the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism is trying to attract 12 million foreign tourists in 2014. A research institute carried out a survey targeting foreign tourists and the survey results showed that they felt uncomfortable with communication (about 55.8%) and directional signs (about 21.4%) when they traveled in Korea. To solve this inconvenience for foreign tourists, multilingual servicesfor traffic signs, tour information, shopping information and so forth should be enhanced. The appearance of the Smartphone comes just in time to provide a new service to address these inconveniences. Smartphones are especially useful because every Smartphone has GPS (Global Positioning System) that can provide users' location to the system, making it possible to provide location-based services. For improvement of tourists' convenience, Seoul Metropolitan Government hasinitiated the u-tour service using Kiosks and Smartphones, and several Province Governments have started the u-tourpia project using RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) and an exclusive device. Even though the u-tour or u-tourpia service used the Smartphone and RFID, the tourist should know the location of the Kiosks and have previous information. So, this service did not give the solution yet. In this paper, I developed a new convenient service which can provide location based information for the individual tourists using GPS, WiFi, and 3G. The service was tested at Insa-dong in Seoul, and the service can provide tour information around the tourist using a push service without user selection. This self-tour service is designed for providing a travel guide service for foreign travelers from the airport to their destination and information about tourist attractions. The system reduced information traffic by constraining receipt of information to tourist themes and locations within a 20m or 40m radius of the device. In this case, service providers can provide targeted, just-in-time services to special customers by sending desired information. For evaluating the implemented system, the contents of 40 gift shops and traditional restaurants in Insa-dong are stored in the CMS (Content Management System). The service program shows a map displaying the current location of the tourist and displays a circle which shows the range to get the tourist information. If there is information for the tourist within range, the information viewer is activated. If there is only a single resultto display, the information viewer pops up directly, and if there are several results, the viewer shows a list of the contents and the user can choose content manually. As aresult, the proposed system can provide location-based tourist information to tourists without previous knowledge of the area. Currently, the GPS has a margin of error (about 10~20m) and this leads the location and information errors. However, because our Government is planning to provide DGPS (Differential GPS) information by DMB (Digital Multimedia Broadcasting) this error will be reduced to within 1m.

A Study on the Effectiveness and Possibility of Chemistry Inquiry Programs Based on Reverse Science Principle (RSP(Reverse Science Principle)기반 화학 탐구 프로그램의 효과 및 가능성 탐색)

  • Jo, Eun-ji;Yang, Heesun;Kang, Seong-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.299-313
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    • 2018
  • Inquiry-centered education is important in science education, but in the actual education field, scientific research is being done in a uniform manner due to realistic difficulties. In this study, we use RS (Reverse Science) as a secondary chemistry class to provide opportunities for students to engage in inquiry learning and scientific thinking through process-oriented activities. In this study, we developed and applied it to explore the effects on the scientific inquiry abilities of middle school students and checked the students' perception of it. For the application of the program, 128 students were selected from 6 classes of the 2nd grade in D district middle school, 64 from the experimental group and 64 from the comparative group. The experimental group taught RSP-based the chemistry inquiry programs and the comparative group taught instructor-led classes and verification experiments on the same topic over the seventh hour with three themes. In addition, we analyzed the results of the pre- and post-test by using the science inquiry ability test, and discussed the effects of the program based on the students' perceptions through class observation, student activity area, questionnaire and interview. As a result, the class using the program showed statistically significant changes in the science inquiry ability of secondary school students. Specifically, the experimental group was found to be significant in its prediction among the subcomponents of basic exploration ability compared to the comparative group. The differences have also been shown to be significant in terms of data translation, hypothesis setup and variable control, which are subcomponents of integrated exploration capabilities (p <. 05). In addition, students became interested in the process of creating the theory of science, and were highly interested in collaborating with their friends. It also provided students with opportunities to experience scientific thinking through process-oriented inquiry. Finally, based on the positive impact of the RSP-based chemistry inquiry program on students, we were able to identify the potential use of the program.

Analysis of Growth Characteristics and Yield Pattern of 'Cupra' and 'Fiesta' Paprika for Yield Prediction (수량예측을 위한 'Cupra', 'Fiesta' 파프리카의 생육특성 및 수확량 패턴 분석)

  • Joung, Kyong Hee;Jin, Hy Jeong;An, Jae Uk;Yoon, Hae Suk;Oh, Sang Suk;Lim, Chae Shin;Um, Yeong Cheol;Kim, Hee Dae;Hong, Kwang Pyo;Park, Seong Min
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.349-355
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    • 2018
  • This study was aimed at predicting the yield of paprika (Capsicum annuum L.) through analyzing the growth characteristics, yield pattern and greenhouse environment. In the greenhouse of the Gyeongnam area (667 m above sea level), the red paprika 'Cupra' and the yellow paprika 'Fiesta' were grown from July 5, 2016 to July 15, 2017. The planting density was $3.66plants/m^2$ and attracted 2 stems. During the cultivation period, the average external radiation of the glasshouse was $14.36MJ/m^2/day$ and the internal average temperature was controlled as $20.1^{\circ}C$. After 42 weeks of planting, the growth rate of 'Cupra' was 7.3 cm/week and that of 'Fiesta' was 6.9 cm/week. The first fruit setting of 'Cupra' appeared at 1.0th node and 'Fiesta' at 2.7th node. The first harvest of 'Fiesta' was 11 weeks after planting and 'Fiesta' was 14 weeks. Comparing the yield per 10 a until the end of the cultivation in July, 'Fiesta' was 19,307 kg, which was 2.4% higher than that of 'Cupra'. And the fruit weight ratio of over 200 g of 'Cupra' was 27.7% which was 7.7% higher than that of 'Fiesta'. The average required days to harvest after fruit setting of 'Cupra' was 72.6 days and 'Fiesta' was 63.8 days. According to the relationship between the average required days to harvest and the cumulative radiation (during from fruit setting to harvest), the more radiation increases the less required days to harvest increases after February. In terms of yield, 'Cupra' increased in yield as the cumulative radiation increased, while 'Fiesta' showed an irregular pattern. Cumulative radiation from fruit setting to harvest was negatively correlated with required days to harvest after February in both cultivars. But in relation to yield, there were difference between 'Cupra' and 'Fiesta'.

A proposal of landmarks for craniofacial analysis using three-dimensional CT imaging (3차원 CT 영상을 이용한 두개악안면 분석을 위한 계측점의 제안)

  • Chang, Hye-Sook;Baik, Hyoung-Seon
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.32 no.5 s.94
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    • pp.313-325
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    • 2002
  • Three-dimensional CT imaging is efficient in examining specific structures in the craniofacial area by reproducing actual measurements through minimization of errors from patient movement and image magnification. Due to the rapid development of digital image technology and the expansion of treatment range a need for developing three -dimensional analysis has become urgent. Therefore the purpose of this study was to evaluate the percentage of error and magnification of three-dimensional CT using a dried skull and Vworks $program^{TM}$ (Cybermed Inc., Seoul, Korea) and also to obtain landmarks that are easy to designate and reproduce in three-dimensional images using the Vmorph-proto $program^{TM}$ (Cybermed Inc., Seoul, Korea). The following conclusions were obtained, 1. In the comparison of actual measurements from the dried skull and the three-dimensional image obtained from the Vworks program, the mean error was 0.99mm and the magnification was 1.04%. 2. Clinically useful hard tissue landmarks from three-dimensional images were Supraorbitale, Lateral orbital margin, Infraorbitale, Nasion, ANS, A point, Zygomaticomaxilla, Upper incisor, Lower incisor, B point, pogonion, Menton, PNS, Condylar inner margin, Condylar outer margin, Porion, Condylion, Gonionl, Gonion2, Gonion3, Sigmoid notch and Basion. 3. Clinically useful soft tissue landmarks from three-dimensional images were Endocanthion, Exocanthion, Soft tissue Nasion, Pronasale, Alare lateralis, Upper nostril point, Lower nostril point, Subnasale, Upper lip point, Cheilion, Stomion, Lower lip center, Soft tissue B, Pogonion, Menton and Preaurale. The Vworks program can be considered a clinically efficient tool to produce and measure three-dimensional images. Most of the hard and soft tissue landmarks proposed above are anatomically important points which are also easily reproducible and designated. These landmarks can be beneficial in three-dimensional diagnosis and the prediction of changes before and after surgery.