• 한국안전학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.62-69
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• 1999

The quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis by accident scenario in the process of EPS(Expendable Poly Stylene) reaction process are conducted. And the decision making process is studied followed by selecting various alternatives to safety management and facility improvement. The result are as follows; 1) The object of decision making through comprehensive risk assessment are the scenario which can cause four major accident, which are made by process analysis, work analysis and hazard identification. 2) Frequency analysis of ETA, FTA, HRA and consequence analysis of accident to each have been conducted. The each frequency values are yielded $9.2{\times}10_{-5}/yr$ to scenarios $1, 8.2{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ to scenario 2, $4.5{\times}10^{-6}/yr$ scenario 3 and $1.8{\times}10^{-7}/yr$ to scenario 4. The each scenarios have been conducted consequence analysis. 3) The calculated values have been obtained 4.00 to scenario 1, 3.25 to scenario 2, 2.43 to scenario 3 and 1.34 to scenario 4, as the weight value had been applied to the quantitative and normalized criteria of all components. As a risk criteria, scenario 1 have been selected, which is the most dangerous scenario as a result of ranking the scenario. 4) According to the importance of FTA and contribute to scenario 1, the cost-benefit values are yielded $8.05\times10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(Al), $1.55{\times}10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(A2) and $2.32{\times}10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(A3). As a result of final alternative(Al) has been selected, which is the most optimized alternative.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국태양에너지학회 2009년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.181-184
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• 2009

This study aimed at framing alternative urban planning scenarios reflecting urban planning factors, performing urban climate simulation and evaluating eco-friend and low energy characteristics of each scenario on the viewpoint of urban temperature and energy savings on the target of the costal city including Haeundae District in Busan The results are as follows. 1)The fact that urban higher temperature is approximately 2.5 times higher in the building constructed area than whole urban area was represented severe higher temperature phenomenon in the built-up area. Ground greening, water scenario and soil scenario could be expected peek air temperature alleviating effect in order. Especially water scenario had significant effect(maximum $2.5^{\circ}C$) on lowering of air temperature.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• 에너지공학
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.230-238
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• 2009

우리나라는 에너지 절약 및 온실가스 배출저감 기술 중 하나로써 소형 열병합 발전과 소형 연료전지 열병합 발전을 연구해 왔으며 정책적으로 이를 보급하려고 한다. 기존의 석탄화력발전설비, 복합화력발전설비, 석유 화력발전설비를 열병합 발전설비로 대체하는 시나리오를 작성하여 에너지소비량과 온실가스 배출량의 변화추이를 에너지 경제 모델인 LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system)을 이용하여 정량적으로 분석하였다. 2019년을 기준으로 열병합 발전설비를 석탄화력발전설비와 교체하였을 경우, 온실가스 배출량이 약 6.34%가 감소하였고 복합화력발전설비와 교체하였을 경우, 온실가스 배출량이 약 0.8%가 증가하였으나 열병합발전설비의 열생산량을 고려해주면 배출량이 감소하는 경향을 보일 것으로 사료된다. 석유화력발전설비를 열병합발전설비로 대체할 경우, 온실가스 배출량이 약 0.8% 감소할 것으로 예상된다.

• 한국위험물학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.52-58
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• 2015

Since the HF release in 2012 in Korea, it became one of the most significant to evaluate consequence to the vicinity of industry facilities handling hazardous materials. BTX plant is selected to assess off-site risk to check whether the facility satisfies the Chemical Control Law by Korea Government. Accident scenarios were listed using process safety information. The scenarios having effect to the off-site were selected and assessed further according to guideline provided by Korea government. Worst case and alternative scenarios including other interested scenarios were evaluated using ALOHA. Each evaluated scenario was assessed further considering countermeasures. The results showed that the facility handling chloric acid is safe enough and needed no further protections at the moment.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.165-172
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• 2017

현행 해양유출사고 시나리오는 예상가능한 최대 유출사고를 근거로 하여 시나리오가 작성되었다. 하지만, 최대유출사고 시나리오와 유사한 규모의 사고는 실제 거의 일어나지 않았는데, 이러한 시나리오를 바탕으로 한 훈련이나 대응장비배치 등은 대비 측면에서 본다면 낮은 비용효율을 가지는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 현행의 시나리오는 활용성과 현장도가 높은 시나리오 구현을 통한 실전에 가까운 형태로 구성될 필요가 있고, 활용 목적에 적합하도록 설계될 필요가 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 과거 사고사례를 바탕으로 한 시나리오 작성을 위해 기 개발된 HNS 사고 표준코드를 활용하여 현행 시나리오를 대체할 수 있는 대체 사고 시나리오(Alternative Accident Scenario)를 구성하고자 하였다. 시나리오는 HNS 사고 표준코드를 모듈화하여 최대 빈도 시나리오, 최대 피해 시나리오, 최대 취약성 시나리오 3가지로 구분하여 작성하였다. 이런 과정을 거쳐 제시된 각 시나리오별로 제시된 사고발생 상황은 실제 사고와 유사한 형태를 나타내므로 현장에서의 합목적적인 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제18권10호
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• pp.733-738
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 여러 사업장에서 많이 사용되는 대표적 독성 물질인 염소를 누출 물질로 선정하여 화학사고 통계자료에 따라 사고 발생 빈도가 높은 여름철 기상조건을 인자로 한 대안의 시나리오와 기존의 시행방법인 연평균 기상조건을 인자로 한 대안의 시나리오 비교분석을 통해 개선방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 2014년 1월부터 2016년 12월까지 발생한 총 296건의 화학 사고를 분석한 결과 사계절 중 여름에 가장 많은 사고가 발생하는 것으로 조사되었으며 전체 사고 발생건수의 35.81%를 차지하였다. 실제 염소를 취급하는 사업장을 대상으로 위험성 평가 결과 2016년의 경우 연평균 기상조건하에서 산출된 영향범위는 발생원으로부터 반경 712.4 m, 영향범위 내 주민 수는 20,090 명이였으며, 여름철 평균 기상조건하에서 산출된 영향범위는 발생원으로부터 반경 796.2 m, 영향범위 내 주민 수는 27,143 명으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과는 특정 조건하에서 현 대안의 시나리오 상의 영향범위가 포괄할 수 없는 부분이 존재함을 의미한다. 따라서 화학 물질별 특성을 고려한 Case Risk Assessment가 이루어져야 한다는 위험성 평가 제도의 발전방향을 제시한다.

• 한국위험물학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.59-64
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• 2015

Semiconductor industry has large number of chemical inventory and is easily exposed to chemical release incidents. Toxic release is one of the most interested area in evaluating consequence to the vicinity of industry facilities handling hazardous materials. Hydrofluoric acid is one of the typical chemical used in semiconductor facility and is selected and toxic release is evaluated to assess the risk impacted to its off-site. Accident scenarios were listed using process safety information. The scenarios having effect to the off-site were selected and assessed further according to guideline provided by Korea government. Worst case and alternative scenarios including other interested scenarios were evaluated using ALOHA. Each evaluated scenario was assessed further considering countermeasures. The results showed that the facility handling hydroflooric acid is safe enough and needed no further protections at the moment.

• 대기
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.149-161
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• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.301-309
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• 2019

A methodology to assess seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) using a conditional mean spectrum is proposed as an alternative to using a uniform hazard response spectrum. Rather than the single-scenario conditional mean spectrum, which is the conventional conditional mean spectrum based on a single scenario, a multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is proposed for the case in which no single scenario is dominant. The multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is defined as the weighted average of different conditional mean spectra, each one of which corresponds to an individual scenario. The weighting factors for scenarios are obtained from a deaggregation of seismic hazards. As a validation example, a seismic fragility assessment of an NPP containment structure is performed using a uniform hazard response spectrum and different single-scenario conditional mean spectra and multi-scenario conditional mean spectra. In the example, the number of scenarios primarily influences the median capacity of the evaluated structure. Meanwhile, the control frequency, a key parameter of a conditional mean spectrum, plays an important role in reducing logarithmic standard deviation of the corresponding fragility curves and corresponding high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity.