• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.153-163
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• 2011

본 연구는 참여정부의 '전시작전통제권(이후 전작권) 전환 결정에 영향을 미친 군사 및 정치적 요인을 분석하는데 있다. 전작권 전환의 결정요소들에 관한 조사는 문헌연구를 우선 실시하고 추가적으로 AHP를 이용하여 타당성을 제고하였다. 분석결과로, '한미동맹의 비대칭성' 측면에서는 한국 방위에 부정적인 효과가, '한미동맹의 상호의존성' 측면에서는 한국군의 전구작전 주도능력 구비에 긍정적인 효과가, '참여정부의 진보정권 이익' 측면에서는 한국군의 자위권 제고에 긍정적인 효과가 나타났다. AHP 분석결과로 '참여정부의 진보정권 이익'측면의 "한국의 자위권 행사"가 가장 높게, '한미동맹의 비대칭성’측면의 "북한의 위협 감소" 가 가장 낮은 것으로 조사되었다. 본 연구는 참여정부의 전작권 전환의 결정요인을 AHP를 이용하여 군사 및 정치적 측면에서 분석하였다는데 의의가 있다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권36호
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• pp.180-214
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• 2015

The Republic of Korea navy challenged from the unexpected surprise attacks by the North Korea navy, albeit, the developments of up-to-date naval forces' technology, and the ceaseless efforts for war preparedness. My study divided into two categories. Qualitative methods used for literature review of international relations theory related to the war onset and for investigating events occurred on the Peninsula and its surrounding seas from 1968 to 2007. Quantitative method used such as the analyses of national power index of the two Koreas, the United States, and China, the uses of equation model to calculate power index of alliance, COPDAB(Conflict and Peace Data Bank) index analysis. Like Choi's study on East Asia maritime conflict, as a conclusion, considering both AT theory and maritime national power as a tool for predicting maritime conflict in the Peninsula proved significant. Based on the study, ROK navy need to prepare for the maritime conflict because the results showed North Korea would initiate maritime disputes sooner or later using fatal asymmetric forces and methods. As a policy suggestion, we are required to maintain a concrete ROK-US alliance ties and to construct naval forces due to the deterring functions of maritime national power.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.83-93
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• 2017

본 논문의 목적은 트럼프 행정부 등장 이후 미국과 중국의 한반도 주요현안에 대한 입장을 분석하고 미중관계 속에서 한국의 대응을 모색하는데 있다. 이 글은 세력전이 측면의 미중관계 담론을 바탕으로 (1) 북핵 (2) 한반도 사드배치 (3) 한미동맹의 세 가지 조건 하에서 두 가지 가정을 전망케 한다. 하나는 미국의 세계질서가 지역질서를 지배하여 지역 질서가 안정적으로 관리되는 것과, 다른 하나는 중국 중심의 지역질서가 세계질서에 영향을 주어 미국과 역내 패권적 갈등이 발생하는 경우이다. 연구결과, 미중관계에서 압도적인 미국의 객관적 힘의 우위는 북핵, 사드, 한미동맹 등 세계 및 지역질서를 리드하는데 상당부분 유지할 것으로 보이며, 중국은 미국과의 갈등 속에서도 미국적 세계질서 유지가 가져올 정치 경제적 이익에 편승하여 한반도 주요현안들에 일정 정도 영향력과 협력이 기대된다. 이러한 전망에서 한국은 북핵, 사드, 동맹의 주요 제 문제들이 한미관계 강화를 우선으로, 변화하는 강대국 세력경쟁 사이에서 현실적 국익에 부합한 외교를 균형 있게 추진해야 할 것이다. 이른바 '시소외교(see-saw diplomacy)'가 필요하다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제12권7호
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• pp.37-47
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• 2014

이 연구는 박상중 고찬이 제안한 '정책흐름 및 전문가집단 위상변동모형'(Policy Stream and Expert Group Standing Change Framework, 이후 PSECF)을 활용하여 참여정부의 전시작전통제권(이후 전작권) 결정을 분석하는 것이다. 전작권 전환 결정과정에서 노무현 전 대통령과 진보성향의 국가안전보장회의(National Security Committee, 이후 NSC)의 강력한 의지는 정책개발과정의 주요 동인으로 작동하였으며, 국방부 및 합참 등 군사전문가집단의 의견은 정책에 수동적이라는 이유로 철저하게 배제되었다. 전문가집단의 위상변동 측면에서 볼 때 전작권 전환 결정이후 8개월 만에 보수성향의 정부가 출범하게 됨으로써 참여정부에서 전작권 전환을 주도한 NSC는 위상이 약화된 반면에 국방부 및 합참과 같은 보수진영은 그 위상이 향상되었다. 결론적으로 참여정부의 전작권 전환에 관한 이 연구는 상위 수준의 국가정책을 설명하는 정책도구로서 PSECF의 적용가능성을 제고하였다는데 의의가 있다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제10권11호
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• pp.47-58
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• 2012

본 연구는 Delphi 및 DEMATEL 기법을 활용하여 참여정부의 전시작전통제권(이후 전작권) 전환에 관한 정치 군사적 결정요인을 선정하고, 이들 결정요인간의 영향정도 및 관계를 정량적 정성적으로 분석하는데 있다. AHP를 활용한 기존 연구에서는 전작권 전환 결정요인을 학술자료와 현장실무경험을 바탕으로 선정하여, 요인선정에 대한 보다 객관적인 분석이 요구되었다. 본 연구를 위해 온라인 및 오프라인 환경에서 안보 관련 전문가 집단을 대상으로 일련의 설문을 실시하였다. 분석결과로 참여정부의 전작권 전환 결정요인은 크게 '군사주권의 회복', '평화통일을 위한 여건조성', '우리나라의 국력신장에 따른 국격 제고'로 AHP기법에 의한 기존연구와 대동소이하였으며, 전작권 전환 결정요인간의 영향 및 관계는 '군사주권 회복'과 '평화통일을 위한 여건조성'은 별개 사안으로 상호 연관성이 없고 '군사주권 회복'이라는 진보세력의 정치적 이익이 주된 결정요인이었던 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 Delphi 및 DEMATEL 기법을 적용하여 참여정부의 전작권 전환 결정요인에 대해 정략적 정성적 분석을 실시하였는데 의의가 있다.

• 동남아시아연구
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.173-218
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• 2009

Bring this analysis down to people-centered development perspective and looking through democratization in the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, we find similarities and differences among them related with the intensity of conflicts between development and human rights in the process of democratization in line with global transformation. Civil society in the Philippines criticized the developmental path in the Philippines which failed to implement land reform and eradication of poverty under the transition from 'patrimonial oligarchy' to democracy. In Thailand the coalition of military and the royalists had consolidated its power since Sarit military regime, which later paved the way 'hybrid oligarchy' era. Most Thai civil society organizations has regarded their developmental experience rather as 'maldevelopment' which disregarded economic and social rights. It has been especially believed by Thai localists that the stimulation of local markets and the building of autonomic community society will form the alternative economy without going against the conservative banner of nation, religion and king. Thaksin as a populist successfully took advantage of Thai localist ethos in favour of taking the seat of power. He projected himself as a modernizer focused on economic growth and cleaner politics. However Thaksin's procedural legitimacy was overthrown by counterattacking from military-royalist alliance, pretexting that Thaksin caused internal conflicts and lacked morality. Soeharto's New Order regime which can be called 'administrative oligarchy' had an antipathy towards notions of economic and social rights as well as civil and political rights. In spite of the fact that the fall of Soeharto opened the political space for democratic civil society organizations which had long struggled with development aggression and human rights abuses, there have been continuously a strong political and military reaction against human rights activists, NGOs and ethnic minorities such as Aceh and Papua. Nevertheless, Indonesian democracy is more promising than Philippine's and Thai democracy in terms of comparatively less pre-modern legacies.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.325-335
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• 1999

Empetrum nigrum dominant community or Rhododendron mucronulatum and R. yedoense var. poukhanense dominant shrub community are developing above l,500m on Mt. Halla in Cheju Island, Korea. These communities were formed as a result of the forest of Abies koreana regression by grazing or erosion over a long period of time. This study was conducted using the phytosociological method and it clarified the floristic composition of the community in Cheju Island by comparing with a similar community in Japan. Also this study interpreted the development data of these communities and considered community succession. As a result of our interpretation, shrub community of Cheju Island is recognized as two associations, Festuco obinae-Empetretum nigrum ass. nov and Rhododendretum mucronulatum ass. nov. Each association of Cheju Island is composed of endemic species of Cheju Island. related to the Korean peninsula and to Japan. The two associations are divided into 8 sub-units but each community development has been created with longtime grazing and prescribed fire. Maybe the location stability by stoppage of interference and grazing will process community transition Quickly. Comparing the shrub communities of Cheju Island with Maianthemo-Rhododendretum in Kyushu, Japan, which is close geographically, both areas have the species of Miscanthetea sinesis and Ericaceae in common. But Cheju Island has more abundant species and has higher ratio of appearance of alpine plants. The shrub communities of Cheju Island and Kyushu. Japan are identified as having a different rank over Alliance.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.195-202
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• 2013

우리 군은 세계화 정보화 과학화를 위해 국방개혁을 지휘구조, 병력구조, 부대구조, 전력구조를 단계적으로 추진하면서 병력위주의 양적 구조를 기술위주의 질적 첨단구조로 전환하고 있는 가운데 병의 숫자는 줄이면서 간부(장교와 부사관)을 약 현재의 3.3배로 증가할 계획이다. 특히 간부집단에서 부사관을 현재 수준의 100%를 증가하여 장기복무율을 확대하고 안정적인 직업성을 보장하면서 우수자원을 안정적으로 확보하기 위해 학 군제휴를 통해 정책적으로 추진중에 있다. 이러한 가운데 군에서는 군을 선도하고 전문화된 자원 확보를 위해 각 협약대학에 군에서 요구하는 과목을 반영할 것을 촉구하고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 효과적으로 교육의 질을 향상하고 우수한 자원을 육성하여 배출하기 위한 대학의 교육과정 개발의 필요성이 절실한 시점에 DACUM 교육과정 개발 방법 및 절차를 적용하여 직업의 요구분석, 핵심직무선정, 직업 및 직무분류, 직무의 정의, 직무모형설정 등을 통해 Duty에 따른 K.S.T도출하여 군에서 요구한 교육과목 반영에 충족시킬 수 있는 교육과정 개발을 통한 교육과정 구성 안을 제시하고자 한다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권31호
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• pp.57-84
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• 2013

North Korea's continuous threats and provocative behaviors have aggravated tension on the Korean peninsula particularly with the recent nuclear weapons test. South Korea's best way to cope with this situation is to maintain the balance among three policy directions: dialogue, sanctions, and deterrence. Among the three, I argue that deterrence should be prioritized. There are different sources of deterrence such as military power, economic power, and diplomatic clouts. States can build deterrence capability independently. Alternatively, they may do so through relations with other states including alliances, bilateral relations, or multilateral relations in the international community. What South Korea needs most urgently is to maintain deterrence against North Korea's local provocations through the enhancement of independent military capability particularly by addressing the asymmetric vulnerability between militaries of the South and the North. Most of all, the South Korean government should recognize the seriousness of the negative consequences that North Korea's 'Nuclear shadow strategy' would bring about for the inter-Korea relations and security situations in Northeast Asia. Based on this understanding, it should develop an 'assertive deterrence strategy' that emphasizes 'multi-purpose, multi-stage, and tailored deterrence whose main idea lies in punitive retaliation.' This deterrence strategy requires a flexible targeting policy and a variety of retaliatory measures capable of taking out all targets in North Korea. At the same time, the force structures of the army, the air force, and the navy should be improved in a way that maximizes their deterrence capability. For example, the army should work on expanding the guided missile command and the special forces command and reforming the reserve forces. The navy and the air force should increase striking capabilities including air-to-ground, ship-to-ground, and submarine-to-ground strikes to a great extent. The marine corps can enhance its deterrence capability by changing the force structure from the stationary defense-oriented one that would have to suffer some degree of troop attrition at the early stage of hostilities to the one that focuses on 'counteroffensive landing operations.' The government should continue efforts for defense reform in order to obtain these capabilities while building the 'Korean-style triad system' that consists of advanced air, ground, and surface/ subsurface weapon systems. Besides these measures, South Korea should start to acquire a minimum level of nuclear potential within the legal boundary that the international law defines. For this, South Korea should withdraw from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Moreover, it should obtain the right to process and enrich uranium through changing the U.S.-South Korea nuclear cooperation treaty. Whether or not we should be armed with nuclear weapons should not be understood in terms of "all or nothing." We should consider an 'in-between' option as the Japanese case proves. With regard to the wartime OPCON transition, we need to re-consider the timing of the transition as an effort to demonstrate the costliness of North Korea's provocative behaviors. If impossible, South Korea should take measures to make the Strategic Alliance 2015 serve as a persisting deterrence system against North Korea. As the last point, all the following governments of South Korea should keep in mind that continuing reconciliatory efforts should always be pursued along with other security policies toward North Korea.

• 이베로아메리카
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.123-152
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• 2011

The long standing people's culture of Latin America based on social solidarity of the communities makes the political relations between the leader and the people very different from them of the european societies based on the representative democracy. At any rate, the main stream of the Populist Discourses sees the real populist political processes with the pejorative senses attributing the demagogue style of the leaders. In these sense, it is very important to re-consider the populism discourses of Ernesto Laclau who thinks that the populism is a way of interpreting the emergence of the people to establish the social demands in the context of populist real politics. According to Laclau, "the populism seeks for the radical reconfiguration of the revolt of the 'Status Quo' and new order". This work will confirm if this interpretation of Laclau can be applied to Peronist political regime. Meanwhile the first group of the orthodox line of the discourses on populism including Gino Germani shows that the populism is a political movement based on the manipulation and demagogue by the charismatic leader of the irrational mass during the period in transition after the crises of the traditional oligarchy in Latin America. And another line of the main stream of discourses on populism including Cardoso and O'Donnell says that the populism is a political phenomena in a period of transition towards the modernization and the national development by means of the industrialization through the substitution of the imports and the alliance between the classes after the 1930's. But these principal interpretations on populism disregards that in Argentina many urban poor working class people had lived under the racist, unequal painful social relations due to the underestimation and the discrimination by the upper and the middle class with many intellectuals. But Peronism had considered them as the new social subjects with human dignities. And so we have to rethink the clientelism also with another meanings. In this sense, the theories of Ernesto Laclau on populism is very helpful to illuminate the sensitive and ambiguous meanings of Peronism. Especially Peronism makes the urban working class maintain their life styles more tended to them of the traditional communities and go towards the anti-Status Quo. That is a key of success of Peronism not only that time but until these days. And so this study will show that it is the most important thing that Peronist regime had made the emergence of the 'people' in the meaning of advancing the democracy in Argentina.