• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.396-405
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• 2017

Main purpose of this study is to analyze determinants of household debt among middle and old individuals aged between 32 and 76 that include Korean baby-boomers(born between 1955 and 1963), using a HAPC (Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort) model and Korean Welfare Panel Study 2006-2016. This study includes 86,056 individuals. Research findings indicate that aging and period effects have statistically significant relationships with household debt levels, however, cohort effects including a baby-boomer generation do not. While household debt increases by 3,530,000 Korean won as age increases by one year, the rate of increase in household debt reduces as individual ages. In addition, employment and health status at the individual level have significant effects on household debt levels. The unemployed are more likely than the employed to have high household debt levels while unhealthy people tend than healthy people to have high household debt levels.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.188-194
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• 2019

Objectives: Outbreaks of scarlet fever in Mexico in 1999, Hong Kong and mainland China in 2011, and England in 2014-2016 have received global attention, and the number of notified cases in Korean children, including in Jeju Province, has also increased since 2010. To identify relevant hypotheses regarding this emerging outbreak, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of scarlet fever incidence was conducted among children in Jeju Province, Korea. Methods: This study analyzed data from the nationwide insurance claims database administered by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The inclusion criteria were children aged ${\leq}14years$ residing in Jeju Province, Korea who received any form of healthcare for scarlet fever from 2002 to 2016. The age and year variables were categorized into 5 groups, respectively. After calculating the crude incidence rate (CIR) for age and calendar year groups, the intrinsic estimator (IE) method was applied to conduct the APC analysis. Results: In total, 2345 cases were identified from 2002 to 2016. Scarlet fever was most common in the 0-2 age group, and boys presented more cases than girls. Since the CIR decreased with age between 2002 and 2016, the age and period effect decreased in all observed years. The IE coefficients suggesting a cohort effect shifted from negative to positive in 2009. Conclusions: The results suggest that the recent outbreak of scarlet fever among children in Jeju Province might be explained through the cohort effect. As children born after 2009 showed a higher risk of scarlet fever, further descriptive epidemiological studies are needed.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.75-95
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• 2011

A birth cohort approach to the Household life-cycle model could be an alternative to cross-sectional data. In this study, each residential mobilities of birth cohorts' is traced by the cohort data from repeated cross-section in the case of Jinju city. Because of the differences in fertilities by era, the volume of each cohort as a consumer in housing has varied and the condition of housing stock also has changed as the time goes by. These changes in housing make not only age effect stressed in Rossi's model, but also cohort and period effect. Due to theses effects of time, every residential mobility trajectories of generations' is different especially in earlier life stages. As households get older, it is found that the age effect reduces and the probability of residential mobility is lower. As this result, the residential succession and filtering between the earlier and latter generations is weakened and the residential segregation could be happened by birth cohort.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.313-322
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• 2020

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine the incidence and risk factors of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in farmers compared to the general population and to establish 5-year prediction models. Methods: The farmer cohort and the control cohort were generated using the customized database of the National Health Insurance Service of Korea database and the National Sample Cohort, respectively. The participants were followed from the day of the index general health examination until the events of MI, stroke, or death (up to 5 years). Results: In total, 734 744 participants from the farmer cohort and 238 311 from the control cohort aged between 40 and 70 were included. The age-adjusted incidence of MI was 0.766 and 0.585 per 1000 person-years in the farmer and control cohorts, respectively. That of stroke was 0.559 and 0.321 per 1000 person-years in both cohorts, respectively. In farmers, the risk factors for MI included male sex, age, personal history of hypertension, diabetes, current smoking, creatinine, metabolic syndrome components (blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Those for stroke included male sex, age, personal history of hypertension, diabetes, current smoking, high γ-glutamyl transferase, and metabolic syndrome components (blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). The prediction model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.735 and 0.760 for MI and stroke, respectively, in the farmer cohort. Conclusions: Farmers had a higher age-adjusted incidence of MI and stroke. They also showed distinct patterns in cardiovascular risk factors compared to the general population.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.75-97
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• 2008

Recently Korea is expected with the decrease of population in working ages and also population structure, especially age structure, has changed as aging goes faster. This study focuses on the relationship between age structure and wage structure to analyzes the cohort size effect on the change of age-earnings profile. Our empirical analysis based on Wright(1991)'s model takes weighted OLS regression using the male worker's data of Ministry of Labor 'Wage Structure Survey'($1990{\sim}2006$). In pooled data, we take the conclusion that the cohort size effect was found in high school and college graduate workers, but the effect is different between them. The labor market entry effect of high school graduate workers is negative(-) and his persistent effect is positive(+). On the other hand, the cohort size effect of college graduate workers have appeared the opposite directions in contrary with the existing results of Welch(1979) and Wright(1991). This results are seen as the possibility that college graduate worker has the benefit of wage level by his relative cohort size in spite of high unemployment of young graduate. It will be the sign of need that we should interest in the change of age structure with balancing the labor supply side approach and the demand side study which the previous studies was mainly tended to focus on.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.12 no.3 s.32
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• pp.39-42
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to develop rural population model adapting cohort survival method with sift-share effects. Administrative district in this study is below Myun: about 2,000 population. Population data of rural area in 1990, 1995, and 2000 by age cohort were selected for applying developed model. Damping coefficient from population data was calculated as 7% and results applying this coefficient in rural population data below the error from 12% to 1.06%. In detail, most of cohorts fitted with developed model except from 15 to 29 age groups. Application result of small population area; DaesulMyun revealed that main factor of population change is not natural change but migration.

• 한국노년학
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.1225-1237
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• 2010

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting consumption inequality in the 10 years following the financial crisis, applying the cohort method on the data for the first to the eleventh wave of the Korean Labor and Income Study produced by the Korean Labor Institute. The study found that consumption inequality increased rapidly immediately following the financial crisis, and then decreased gradually until increasing again from 2005 onward. Analyzed in terms of age-time-cohort effects, there was a significant change in consumption inequality around the age of mid-forties, and the decrease in consumption inequality was smaller in the younger generations than in the older ones. This suggests that as the current younger generations age over time, consumption inequality may become greater. Also, when the factors in population-cohort-age effects from 1998 onward are analyzed, the age effect in consumption inequality becomes smaller, whereas the role of the rising average age due to demographic shifts seems to be increasing. This means that consumption inequality may become a serious problem in the rapidly aging society. Therefore, there is a need to consider ways to bolster social security and to provide further public assistance in the low-income retiree.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.55-69
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• 1991

The objective of the study is to figure out the status of reproductive health and general characteristics related to maternal health for Korean-Americans living in Los Angeles. We collected data from the married women who wanted no more additional child birth and were attending the Family Planning Clinic of Koryo Health Foundation in Los Angeles during 1988. There were 494 women met the eligibility requirement for this study. The results are summarized below. 1. In the age distribution of the women who desired no more additional child birth, women 30-34 age group constituted the largest proportion at 36.6 percent ; the mean age of women was 35.1915.55. The mean number of child birth was 1.77, and the proportion of the women by number of child birth were 35.2 percent for one children, 50.1 percent for two children 10.5 percent for three children, and 2.6 percent for four children. All of the women experienced pregnancy at least once, and mean number of pregnancy was 3.42. The mean number of total experience of induced abortion was 1.56. and 76.7 percent of these women had experience with induced abortions. To prevent further pregnancies, 90.1 percent of the women were utilizing the contraceptive methods, and the highest proportion by the contraceptive methods was condoms(53.7%), 9.3 percent in spermicides, 8.7 percent in IUDs, 8.7 percent in rhythm method, and 6.9 percent in oral pills. 2. The mean age of women at each stage of reproductive life cycle were 14.74 years at time of menarche, 24.55 years at time of marriage, 26.60 years at time of the first child birth, and 28.75 years at time of the last child birth. In age distribution of the women by birth cohort (Group I : birth cohort 1940-1954, Group H : birth cohort 1955-1970), the mean menar-cheal age of the women was 14.96 years in group I , and 14.53 years in group H . Mean age at time of marriage was 25.01 years in group I and 24.08 years in group H . Mean child birth age of the women by birth cohort was 27.19 years In group I and 26.01 years in Group II for the first child birth and 30.07 years in group I and 27.45 years in group II for the last child birth. The total length of reproductive life cycle from menarche to menopause (presumed to be at 49 of age years) was 34.26 years. The len-gth of phase I (from menarche to marriage) was 9.81 years, while phase H (marriage to first birth) was 2.05 years, and phase Ill (first birth to last birth) was 2. 15 years, and the last phase of reproductive life cycle, phase IV (last birth to menopause) was 20.25 years. The proportion of each phase 10 total length of reproductive life cycle was 28.6 percent, 6.0 percent 6.3 percent, and 59.t percent respectively. In the tendency of each phase in reproductive life cycle by birth cohort (group I , U ), the length of phase I, II , III of birth cohort group II was diminished in comparison with those of birth cohort group I , but the length of phase IV was extended by 2.38 years. 3. Among the women, the mean number of total pregnancy by birth cohort group was 2.01 in group I and 1.10 in Group II, and mean number of child birth was 1.97 in group I and 1.58 in group II. In terms of pregnancy was-tage rate by birth cohort group, among the total pregnancy of birth cohort group I , 51.8 percent of the cases resulted in induced abortions or spontaneous abortions whils 48.2 percent resulted in live births, and 42.2 percent or total pregnancy in group II resulted in pregnancy wastage and 57.8 percent of the cases resulted in live births.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.3893-3898
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• 2012

In previous studies we predicted future trends in cancer incidence for each prefecture in order to plan cancer control. Those predictions, however, did not take into account the characteristics of each prefecture. We therefore used the results of age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality data of Osaka, and estimated the incidence and mortality of cancers at all sites and selected sites. The results reflect the characteristics of Osaka, which has and is expected to have large number of patients with liver cancer. We believe our results to be useful for planning and evaluating cancer control activities in Osaka. It would be worthwhile to base the estimation of cancer incidence and mortality in each prefecture on each population-based cancer registry.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.4501-4504
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• 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.