• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.413-429
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• 2007

Equity-linked securities (ELS) provide their customers with the return linked to the underlying equity (or equities). Equity-linked products in Korea have recently gained popularity due to relatively low interest rates. This paper discusses an equity-linked security whose principal is not guaranteed. The payoff of the ELS depends on the returns of two underlying assets. This paper presents numerical prices of the proposed product by using Monte-Carlo simulation method. It assumes that the log-returns of two stocks follow either Brownian motion or variance gamma process. Finally, the comparison of the two approaches is discussed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.675-688
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• 2020

In survival analysis of observational data, the inverse probability weighting method and the Cox proportional hazards model are widely used when estimating the causal effects of multiple-valued treatment. In this paper, the two kinds of weights have been examined in the inverse probability weighting method. We explain the reason why the stabilized weight is more appropriate when an inverse probability weighting method using the generalized propensity score is applied. We also emphasize that a marginal hazard ratio and the conditional hazard ratio should be distinguished when defining the hazard ratio as a treatment effect under the Cox proportional hazards model. A simulation study based on real data is conducted to provide concrete numerical evidence.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.171-188
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• 2021

Due to an increased demand for longevity risk analysis, various stochastic models have been suggested to evaluate uncertainly in estimated life expectancy and the associated value of future annuity payments. Recently updated data allow us to analyze mortality for a longer historical period and extended age ranges. This study followed up previous case studies using up-to-date empirical data on Korean mortality and the recently developed R package StMoMo for stochastic mortality models analysis. The suitability of stochastic mortality models, focusing on retirement ages, was investigated with goodness-of-fit, validity of models, and ability of generating reasonable sets of simulation paths of future mortality. Comparisons were made across various types of models. Based on the selected models, the variability of important estimated measures associated with pension, annuity, and reverse mortgage were quantified using simulations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.679-694
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• 2022

Mortality risk is a significant threat to individual life, and quantifying the risk is necessary for making a national population plan and is a traditionally fundamental task in the insurance and annuity businesses. Like other advanced countries, the sustainability of life pensions and the management of longevity risks are becoming important in Asian countries entering the era of aging society. In this study, mortality and pension value sustainability trends are compared and analyzed based on national population and mortality data, focusing on four Asian countries from 1990 to 2017. The result of analyzing the robustness and accuracy of generalized linear/nonlinear models reveals that the Cairns-Blake-Dowd model, the nonparametric Renshaw-Haberman model, and the Plat model show low stability. The Currie, CBD M5, M7, and M8 models have high stability against data periods. The M7 and M8 models demonstrate high accuracy. The longevity risk is found to be high in the order of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan, which is in general inversely related to the population size.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.531-550
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• 2023

The estimation of extreme quantiles is one of the main objectives of statistics of extremes (which deals with the estimation of rare events). In this paper, a robust estimator of extreme quantile of a heavy-tailed distribution is considered. The estimator is obtained through the minimum density power divergence criterion on an exponential regression model. The proposed estimator was compared with two estimators of extreme quantiles in the literature in a simulation study. The results show that the proposed estimator is stable to the choice of the number of top order statistics and show lesser bias and mean square error compared to the existing extreme quantile estimators. Practical application of the proposed estimator is illustrated with data from the pedochemical and insurance industries.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.323-336
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• 2024

The accurate forecasting of insurance claims is a critical component for insurers' risk management decisions. Hierarchical Bayesian parametric (BP) models can be used for health insurance claims forecasting, but they are unsatisfactory to describe the claims distribution. Therefore, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models can be a more suitable alternative to deal with the complex characteristics of the health insurance claims distribution, including heavy tails, skewness, and multimodality. In this study, we apply both a BP model and a BNP model to predict group health claims using simulated and real-world data for a private life insurer in Indonesia. The findings show that the BNP model outperforms the BP model in terms of claims prediction accuracy. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the flexibility and robustness of BNP models in handling diverse data structures in health insurance claims.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.1097-1114
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• 2014

Multiple-life policies pay a benefit on the first death or the last death among the group of lives. In practice, the future lifetime random variable of policy holders has been considered to be independent, but it is more rational to take into account the correlations among the policy holders. In this paper, the Gaussian copula is applied to re ect the correlations among policy holders and then to diversify the common shock of the multiple life policies which follows an exponential distribution. Five case studies demonstrate its usefulness of using copula in calculating the premiums of the multiple-life policies including the common shock.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.319-323
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• 2006

Heritabilities and genetic correlations of economic traits were estimated with a multiple-trait animal model on 5 different strains of Korea Native Chickens (KNC): Red Brown (RB), Yellow Brown (YB), Gray Brown (GB), Black (B) and White (W). The data used for this study were collected from the Daejeon branch of the National Livestock Research Institute and included 11,233 performance records and 12,729 individual animals. DFREML and SAS BASE/STAT packages were used to estimate genetic parameters and descriptive statistics. The estimated heritabilities for strain RB, YB, GB, B and W, respectively, for age at 1st egg were 0.24, 0.27, 0.12, 0.32 and 0.18; for body weight at first egg were 0.39, 0.43, 0.38, 0.52 and 0.57; for body weight at age of 270 days were 0.43, 0.51, 0.30, 0.52 and 0.67; for egg weight at first egg were 0.08, 0.13, 0.07, 0.06 and 0.07; for egg weight at age of 270 days were 0.37, 0.43, 0.22, 0.34 and 0.41; and for number of eggs laid by age of 270 days were 0.24, 0.25, 0.37, 0.36 and 0.30. The genetic and phenotypic correlations were also estimated.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.489-498
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• 2009

Underwriting is the first step for the administration of an insurance contract, which may result in stable profitability or unexpected loss for insurance company. Adequacy of underwriting criteria determines underwriting result. Generally, quantitative scoring system is used for underwriting. Method of evaluating risk for the scoring system is summing up scores for risk factors of a potential policyholder in consideration. Scores for each risk factor is predetermined. Current business environment for insurance companies makes underwriting profit more important, which means that insurance companies need more efficient underwriting method. This study suggests a reasonable approach to estimate risk relativities based on generalized linear model. Real data were used to quantify risk levels of groups of insureds for the design of underwriting model. Finally, effects in business volume and profitability of reflecting estimated underwriting scoring system are explained.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.211-226
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• 2014

This paper discusses life expectancy differentials of beneficiaries of national pension old-age benefit and benefit-cost analysis in Korea. These results are useful indicators for the assessment of retirement income security of beneficiaries and old-age benefits. This paper analyzes benefit-cost ratio, internal rate of return and generation transfer amount, using life tables by lifetime incomes. The result of the actuarial analysis for male life expectancy is approximately 21.69 to 24.63 years. The result of the actuarial analysis for female life expectancy is approximately 27.63 to 29.81 years. The result of the actuarial analysis of low income level is that the benefit-cost ratio is lower approximately 2.68 to 4.83%, the internal rate of return lower approximately 0.00 to 0.74%, the generation transfer amount lower approximately 3.00 to 5.74%, than total income level. The result of the actuarial analysis of high income level is that the benefit-cost ratio is higher approximately 2.07 to 4.98%, the internal rate of return higher approximately 0.03 to 1.73%, the generation transfer amount higher approximately 2.53 to 9.68%, than the total income level. The results by income varies due to the effect of income redistribution and life expectancy on the national pension.