• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
• /
• 제19권8호
• /
• pp.1530-1537
• /
• 2016

Recently, solar power generation shows the significant growth in the renewable energy field. Using the short-term prediction, it is possible to control the electric power demand and the power generation plan of the auxiliary device. However, a short-term prediction can be used when you know the weather forecast. If it is not possible to use the weather forecast information because of disconnection of network at the island and the mountains or for security reasons, the accuracy of prediction is not good. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed a system capable of short-term prediction of solar power generation amount by using only the weather information that has been collected by oneself. We used temperature, humidity and insolation as weather information. We have applied a moving average to each information because they had a characteristic of time series. It was composed of min, max and average of each information, differences of mutual information and gradient of it. An artificial neural network, SVM and RBF Network model was used for the prediction algorithm and they were combined by Ensemble method. The results of this suggest that using a moving average during pre-processing and ensemble prediction models will maximize prediction accuracy.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국해양정보통신학회 2007년도 추계종합학술대회
• /
• pp.853-856
• /
• 2007

기상 레이다에서의 반사 신호는 비, 구름 등에 의하여 산란되는 전자파 신호로서 이러한 도플러 신호를 분석함으로서 여러 가지 특징적인 기상정보를 추출하게 된다. 그런데 이러한 기상정보를 정확히 추출하기 위해서는 지표면 클러터 및 레이다에서의 도플러 기상정보들이 어떻게 나타나는지 그 특징을 잘 파악하여야 할 것이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 기존의 대칭형 도플러 스펙트럼 모델을 개선할 수 있는 비대칭 도플러 모델을 제안하였다. 제안된 기상 도플러 스펙트럼 모텔은 기상조건, 운영환경 및 시스템 특성에 따라 다양하게 모의될 수 있으므로 기상 레이다 정보추출의 신뢰성 검증 및 성능향상에 많은 도움이 될 수 있을 것이다.

• 대기
• /
• 제27권4호
• /
• pp.385-398
• /
• 2017

Numerical weather prediction experiments were carried out by applying topographic effects to reduce or enhance the solar radiation by terrain. In this study, x and ${\kappa}({\phi}_o,\;{\theta}_o)$ are precalculated for topographic effect on high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with 1 km spatial resolution, and meteorological variables are analyzed through the numerical experiments. For the numerical simulations, cases were selected in winter (CASE 1) and summer (CASE 2). In the CASE 2, topographic effect was observed on the southward surface to enhance the solar energy reaching the surface, and enhance surface temperature and temperature at 2 m. Especially, the surface temperature is changed sensitively due to the change of the solar energy on the surface, but the change of the precipitation is difficult to match of topographic effect. As a result of the verification using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Automated Weather System (AWS) data on Seoul metropolitan area, the topographic effect is very weak in the winter case. In the CASE 1, the improvement of accuracy was numerically confirmed by decreasing the bias and RMSE (Root mean square error) of temperature at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m and relative humidity. However, the accuracy of rainfall prediction (Threat score (TS), BIAS, equitable threat score (ETS)) with topographic effect is decreased compared to without topographic effect. It is analyzed that the topographic effect improves the solar radiation on surface and affect the enhancements of surface temperature, 2 meter temperature, wind speed, and PBL height.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.37-48
• /
• 2010

This paper describes a web-based information system for plant disease forecast that was developed for crop growers in Gyeonggi-do, Korea. The system generates hourly or daily warnings at the spatial resolution of $240\;m{\times}240\;m$ based on weather data. The system consists of four components including weather data acquisition system, job process system, data storage system, and web service system. The spatial resolution of disease forecast is high enough to estimate daily or hourly infection risks of individual farms, so that farmers can use the forecast information practically in determining if and when fungicides are to be sprayed to control diseases. Currently, forecasting models for blast, sheath blight, and grain rot of rice, and scab and rust of pear are available for the system. As for the spatial interpolation of weather data, the interpolated temperature and relative humidity showed high accuracy as compared with the observed data at the same locations. However, the spatial interpolation of rainfall and leaf wetness events needs to be improved. For rice blast forecasting, 44.5% of infection warnings based on the observed weather data were correctly estimated when the disease forecast was made based on the interpolated weather data. The low accuracy in disease forecast based on the interpolated weather data was mainly due to the failure in estimating leaf wetness events.

• 한국통신학회논문지
• /
• 제25권6B호
• /
• pp.1120-1126
• /
• 2000

Recently, in order to analyze the time series problems that occur in the nature word, and analyzing method using a neural electric network is being studied more than a typical statistical analysis method. A neural electric network has a generalization performance that is possible to estimate and analyze about non-learning data through the learning of a population. In this paper, after collecting weather datum that was collected from 1987 to 1996 and learning a population established, it suggests the weather forecasting system for an estimation and analysis the future weather. The suggested weather forecasting system uses 28*30*1 neural network structure, raises the total learning numbers and accuracy letting the selecting concentration learning about the pattern, that is not collected, using the descending epsilon learning method. Also, the weather forecasting system, that is suggested through a comparative experiment of the typical time series analysis method shows more superior than the existing statistical analysis method in the part of future estimation capacity.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.105-115
• /
• 2014

본 연구에서는 지능형 CCTV를 이용하여 자동 수위감지 알고리즘과 사전 경보시스템을 개발하고 Test-Bed에 적용하여 실용화 가능성을 검증하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 현장여건에 적합한 지능형 CCTV 기반의 자동 수위감지 알고리즘을 개발하고 자동인식률 가변 요소에 대한 성능저하 방지대책을 수립하여 CCTV 카메라 기종별 수위감지 성능과 적합성을 평가하고 실용화에 따른 최적 적용방안을 도출한다. 그 결과, CCTV 카메라 기종별 수위감지 성능이 90%으로 도출되었다. CCTV 카메라 기종에 따른 적합성 평가 결과, 자동 수위감지용으로 NIR카메라가 정밀도에서 주 야간 95%이상의 성능을, 떨림 안개 저조도 등 자연환경에서 가장 우수한 성능을, 설치용이성에서는 일반카메라와 대등한 성능을, 가격측면에서 일반카메라 대비 15% 최소 상승분으로 가장 우수했다. 따라서 본 연구개발의 성과물인 지능형 CCTV를 이용한 수위감지 경보시스템의 실용화 가능성을 확인하였으며 향후 실용화가 예상된다.

• 디지털융복합연구
• /
• 제16권12호
• /
• pp.293-299
• /
• 2018

기상은 농작물 재배에 많은 영향을 미친다. 농작물 재배지의 기상정보는 효율적인 농작물 재배 및 관리에 필수적이다. 농업기상 정보의 높은 수요에도 불구하고 이에 대한 연구는 부족하다. 본 연구는 중장기 계절예측정보인 GloSea5와 심층 신경망을 통해 양파의 주산지인 전라남도의 농업기상 정보 생산 방법을 다룬다. 연구방법으로는 매일 생산되는 GloSea5 기상정보를 훈련시키기 위해 슬라이딩 창 방법을 활용한 심층신경망 모형이 사용되었다. 모형의 정확도평가는 농업기상관측소의 일 평균기온과 GloSea5 예측값 그리고 딥러닝 예측값 차이의 RMSE와 MAE로 계산하였다. 심층신경망 모형은 학습기간이 늘어날수록 정확도가 향상되므로 학습기간과 예측기간에 따른 예측성능을 비교하였다. 분석결과 학습기간과 예측기간은 비례하지만 계절변화에 따른 추세성이 반영되는 한계점이 있었다. 이를 보안하기 위해 예측값과 관측값의 차이를 다음날 예측값에 적용시킨 후보정 심층신경망 모형을 제시하였다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• 제14권8호
• /
• pp.3567-3582
• /
• 2020

Human activities are often affected by weather conditions. Automatic weather recognition is meaningful to traffic alerting, driving assistance, and intelligent traffic. With the boost of deep learning and AI, deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) are utilized to identify weather situations. In this paper, a three-channel convolutional neural network (3C-CNN) model is proposed on the basis of ResNet50.The model extracts global weather features from the whole image through the ResNet50 branch, and extracts the sky and ground features from the top and bottom regions by two CNN5 branches. Then the global features and the local features are merged by the Concat function. Finally, the weather image is classified by Softmax classifier and the identification result is output. In addition, a medium-scale dataset containing 6,185 outdoor weather images named WeatherDataset-6 is established. 3C-CNN is used to train and test both on the Two-class Weather Images and WeatherDataset-6. The experimental results show that 3C-CNN achieves best on both datasets, with the average recognition accuracy up to 94.35% and 95.81% respectively, which is superior to other classic convolutional neural networks such as AlexNet, VGG16, and ResNet50. It is prospected that our method can also work well for images taken at night with further improvement.

• 한국도로학회논문집
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.127-135
• /
• 2018

PURPOSES : This study develops various models that can estimate the pattern of road surface temperature changes using machine learning methods. METHODS : Both a thermal mapping system and weather forecast information were employed in order to collect data for developing the models. In previous studies, the authors defined road surface temperature data as a response, while vehicular ambient temperature, air temperature, and humidity were considered as predictors. In this research, two additional factors-road type and weather forecasts-were considered for the estimation of the road surface temperature change pattern. Finally, a total of six models for estimating the pattern of road surface temperature changes were developed using the MATLAB program, which provides the classification learner as a machine learning tool. RESULTS : Model 5 was considered the most superior owing to its high accuracy. It was seen that the accuracy of the model could increase when weather forecasts (e.g., Sky Status) were applied. A comparison between Models 4 and 5 showed that the influence of humidity on road surface temperature changes is negligible. CONCLUSIONS : Even though Models 4, 5, and 6 demonstrated the same performance in terms of average absolute error (AAE), Model 5 can be considered the optimal one from the point of view of accuracy.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
• /
• 제12권10호
• /
• pp.1737-1743
• /
• 2008

기상 레이다에서의 반사 신호는 비, 구름 및 먼지 입자 등에 의하여 산란되는 전자파신호로서 이러한 도플러 신호를 분석함으로서 여러 가지 특징적인 기상정보를 추출하지 된다. 그런데 이러한 기상정보를 정확히 추출하기 위해서는 지표면 클러터 및 레이다에서의 도플러 기상정보들이 어떻게 나타나는지 그 특징을 잘 파악하여야 할 것이다. 그러나 기존의 대칭형 도플러 스펙트럼 모델은 다양한 기상환경을 나타내기에는 다소 부적합하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 도플러 스펙트럼 모델에서의 비대칭성을 나타낼 수 있는 개선된 모델을 제안하였다. 제안된 기상 도플러 모델을 이용하면 기상조건, 운영환경 및 시스템 특성에 따라 다양한 클러터 및 기강신호들을 시간 및 스펙트럼 영역에서 효율적으로 모의할 수 있다. 이러한 모의 방법은 기상레이다 정보추출 알고리즘의 정확도 검증 및 추가적인 성능 향상을 위한 새로운 시스템 개발에 많은 도움이 될 수 있을 것이다.