• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accident Prediction Model

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A Study on integrated water management system based on Web maps

  • Choi, Ho Sung;Jung, Jin Young;Park, Koo Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2016
  • Initial prevention activities and rapid propagation conditions is the most important to prevent diffusion of water pollution. If water pollutants flow into streams river or main stresm located in environmental conservation area or water intake facilities, we must predict immediately arrival time and the diffusion concentration to the proactive. National Institute of Environmental Research developed water pollution incident response prediction system linking dam and movable weir. the system is mathematical model which is updated daily. Therefore it can quickly predict the arrival time and the diffusion concentration when there are accident of oil spills and hazardous chemicals. Also we equipped with mathematical model and toxicity model of EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) to calculate the arrival time and the diffusion concentration. However these systems offer the services of an offline manner than real-time control services. we have ensured the reliability of data collection and have developed a real-time water quality measurement data transmission device by using the data linkage utilizing a mode bus communication and a commercial SCADA system, in particular, we implemented to be able to do real-time water quality prediction through information infrastructure of the water quality integrated management business created by utilizing the construction of the real-time prediction system that utilizes the data collected, the Open map, the visual representation using charts API and development of integrated management system development based on web maps.

Verification of a Dynamic Compartment Model for the Tritium Behavior in the Plants After Short HTO Release Using a BIOMOVS II Scenario

  • Park, Heui-Joo;Kang, Hee-Suk;Lee, Hansoo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2003
  • A dynamic compartment model was required for the prediction of radiological consequences of the tritiated vapor released from the nuclear facility after an accident. A computer code, ECOREA-T, was developed by incorporating the unit models for the evaluation of tritium behavior in the environment. Dry deposition of tritiated vapor from the atmosphere to the soil was calculated using a deposition velocity. Transport of tritium from the atmosphere to the plant was calculated using a specific activity model, and the result was compared with the Belot's analytic solution. Root uptake of tritiated water from the soil and formation of OBT from T were considered in the model. The ECOREA-T code was verified by comparing the results from the other computer codes using a scenario developed through BIOMOVS II study. The results showed good agreements.

A Simple Model for Dispersion in the Stable Boundary Layer

  • Kang Sung-Dae;Kimura Fujio;Lee Hwa-Woon;Kim Yoo-Keun
    • Environmental Sciences Bulletin of The Korean Environmental Sciences Society
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 1997
  • Handling the emergency problems such as Chemobyl accident require real time prediction of pollutants dispersion. One-point real time sounding at pollutant source and simple model including turbulent-radiation process are very important to predict dispersion at real time. The stability categories obtained by one-dimensional numerical model (including PBL dynamics and radiative process) are good agreement with observational data (Golder, 1972). Therefore, the meteorological parameters (thermal, moisture and momentum fluxes; sensible and latent heat; Monin-Obukhov length and bulk Richardson number; vertical diffusion coefficient and TKE; mixing height) calculated by this model will be useful to understand the structure of stable boundary layer and to handling the emergency problems such as dangerous gasses accident. Especially, this simple model has strong merit for practical dispersion models which require turbulence process but does not takes long time to real predictions. According to the results of this model, the urban area has stronger vertical dispersion and weaker horizontal dispersion than rural area during daytime in summer season. The maximum stability class of urban area and rural area are 'A' and 'B' at 14 LST, respectively. After 20 LST, both urban and rural area have weak vertical dispersion, but they have strong horizontal dispersion. Generally, the urban area have larger radius of horizontal dispersion than rural area. Considering the resolution and time consuming problems of three dimensional grid model, one-dimensional model with one-point real sounding have strong merit for practical dispersion model.

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Comparison Study for Impact Range of Prediction Models Through Case Study about Gumi Hydrogen Fluoride Accident (구미 불산사고 사례연구를 통한 예측모델 피해영향범위 비교)

  • Kim, Jin Hyung;Jeong, Changmo;Kang, Seok Min;Yong, Jong-Won;Yoo, Byungtae;Seo, Jae Min
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 2017
  • Since the number and the amount of toxic substances handled by domestic companies have been increased, the possibility of serious chemical accidents has become severe. According to Chemistry Safety Clearing-house (CSC), the number of chemical accidents for the last five years has been rapidly raised. A representative example which shows the serious impact of a chemical accident is HF (Hydrogen Fluoride) accident generated in Gumi in 2012. In order to make effective responses for mitigating losses of accidents, the most suitable consequence model has to be selected and implemented throughout the considerations of chemical properties and environments. Even if each consequence model has been verified by the results of experiments, it is necessary to analyze and compare the usability of them according to various scenarios. In this study, the Gumi HF accident is simulated by HGSYSTEM, which is the most specialized model for the release and dispersion of HF. It is found that the ending point of ERPG-2 is about 1 km from the accident point. In order to investigate the usability of the most representative consequence models (ALOHA and CARIS), the results of them are compared with one of HGSYSTEM.

Ex-vessel Steam Explosion Analysis for Pressurized Water Reactor and Boiling Water Reactor

  • Leskovar, Matjaz;Ursic, Mitja
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.72-86
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    • 2016
  • A steam explosion may occur during a severe accident, when the molten core comes into contact with water. The pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor ex-vessel steam explosion study, which was carried out with the multicomponent three-dimensional Eulerian fuel-coolant interaction code under the conditions of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Steam Explosion Resolution for Nuclear Applications project reactor exercise, is presented and discussed. In reactor calculations, the largest uncertainties in the prediction of the steam explosion strength are expected to be caused by the large uncertainties related to the jet breakup. To obtain some insight into these uncertainties, premixing simulations were performed with both available jet breakup models, i.e., the global and the local models. The simulations revealed that weaker explosions are predicted by the local model, compared to the global model, due to the predicted smaller melt droplet size, resulting in increased melt solidification and increased void buildup, both reducing the explosion strength. Despite the lower active melt mass predicted for the pressurized water reactor case, pressure loads at the cavity walls are typically higher than that for the boiling water reactor case. This is because of the significantly larger boiling water reactor cavity, where the explosion pressure wave originating from the premixture in the center of the cavity has already been significantly weakened on reaching the distant cavity wall.

Level of Service of Signalized Intersections Considering both Delay and Accidents (지체와 사고를 고려한 신호교차로 서비스수준 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Je-Jin;Park, Seong-Yong;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2008
  • Level of Service (LOS) is one of ways to evaluate operational conditions. It is very important factor in evaluation especially for the facility of highways. However, some studies proved that ${\upsilon}/c$ ratio and accident rate is appeared like a second function which has a U-form. It means there is a gap between LOS and safety of highway facilities. Therefore, this study presents a method for evaluation of a signalized intersection which is considered both smooth traffic operation (delay) and traffic safety (accident). Firstly, as a result of our research, accident rates and EPDO are decreased when it has a big delay. In that reason, it is necessary to make a new Level of Service included traffic safety. Secondly, this study has developed a negative binominal regression model which is based on the relation between accident patterns and stream. Thirdly, standards of LOS are presented which is originated from calculation between annual delay costs and annual accident cost at each intersection. Lastly, worksheet form is presented as an expression to an estimation step of a signalized intersection with traffic accident prediction model and new LOS.

Investigation of aerosol resuspension model based on random contact with rough surface

  • Liwen He;Lili Tong;Xuewu Cao
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.989-998
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    • 2023
  • Under nuclear reactor severe accidents, the resuspension of radioactive aerosol may occur in the containment due to the disturbing airflow generated by hydrogen combustion, hydrogen explosion and containment depressurization resulting in the increase of radioactive source term in the containment. In this paper, for containment conditions, by considering the contact between particle and rough deposition surface, the distribution of the distance between two contact points of particle and deposition surface, rolling and lifting separation mechanism, resuspension model based on random contact with rough surface (RRCR) is established. Subsequently, the detailed torque and force analysis is carried out, which indicates that particles are more easily resuspended by rolling under low disturbing airflow velocity. The simulation result is compared with the experimental result and the prediction of different simulation methods, the RRCR model shows equivalent and better predictive ability, which can be applicable for simulation of aerosol resuspension in containment during severe accident.

Evaluating of Risk Order for Urban Road by User Cost Analysis (사용자비용분석을 통한 간선도로 위험순위 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jung-Ha;Park, Tae-Hoon;Im, Jong-Moon;Park, Je-Jin;Yoon, Pan;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2005
  • Level of service(LOS) is a quantify measure describing operational conditions within a traffic stream, generally, in terms of such service measures as speed, travel time, freedom to measures, traffic interruptions, comfort and convenience. The LOS is leveled by highway facilities according to measure of effectiveness(MOE) and then used to evaluate performance capacity. The current evaluation of a urban road is performed by only a aspect of traffic operation without any concepts of safety. Therefore, this paper presents a method for evaluation of risk order for urban road with new MOE, user cost analysis, considering both smooth traffic operation(congestion) and traffic safety(accident). The user coat is included traffic accident cast by traffic safety and traffic congestion cost by traffic operation. First of all, a number of traffic accident and accident rate by highway geometric is inferred from urban road traffic accident prediction model (Poul Greibe(2001)) Secondly, a user cost is inferred as traffic accident cast and traffic congestion cost is putting together. Thirdly, a method for evaluation of a urban road is inferred by user cost analysis. Fourthly a accident rate by segment predict with traffic accidents and data related to the accidents in $1996{\sim}1998$ on 11 urban road segments, Gwang-Ju, predicted accident rate. Traffic accident cost predict using predicted accident rate, and, traffic congestion cost predict using predicted average traffic speed(KHCM). Fifthly, a risk order are presented by predicted user cost at each segment in urban roads. Finally, it si compared and evaluated that LOS of 11 urban road segments, Gwang-Ju, by only a aspect of traffic operation without any concepts of safety and risk order by a method for evaluation of urban road in this paper.

Numerical Simulation of Spilled Oil Dispersion in Taean Coastal Zone (태안유류유출사고의 유출유 초기확산 수치모의)

  • Jung, Tae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2009
  • Due to an oil spill accident occurred in Taean coastal zone wide range of coastal waters were polluted. Inaccurate prediction of spilled oil trajectory is known as a cause that has increased the pollution damage in the beginning stage. In this study, a numerical modeling of spilled oil dispersion has been conducted to know which physical factors caused the severe and wide pollution. Especially the simulation is focused on how to model hydrodynamic circulation accurately. The simulation results showed that the hydrodynamic flow is very important in predicting oil fate, specially, in the short-term dispersion of spilled oil.

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Modeling and analysis of selected organization for economic cooperation and development PKL-3 station blackout experiments using TRACE

  • Mukin, Roman;Clifford, Ivor;Zerkak, Omar;Ferroukhi, Hakim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.356-367
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    • 2018
  • A series of tests dedicated to station blackout (SBO) accident scenarios have been recently performed at the $Prim{\ddot{a}}rkreislauf-Versuchsanlage$ (primary coolant loop test facility; PKL) facility in the framework of the OECD/NEA PKL-3 project. These investigations address current safety issues related to beyond design basis accident transients with significant core heat up. This work presents a detailed analysis using the best estimate thermal-hydraulic code TRACE (v5.0 Patch4) of different SBO scenarios conducted at the PKL facility; failures of high- and low-pressure safety injection systems together with steam generator (SG) feedwater supply are considered, thus calling for adequate accident management actions and timely implementation of alternative emergency cooling procedures to prevent core meltdown. The presented analysis evaluates the capability of the applied TRACE model of the PKL facility to correctly capture the sequences of events in the different SBO scenarios, namely the SBO tests H2.1, H2.2 run 1 and H2.2 run 2, including symmetric or asymmetric secondary side depressurization, primary side depressurization, accumulator (ACC) injection in the cold legs and secondary side feeding with mobile pump and/or primary side emergency core coolant injection from the fuel pool cooling pump. This study is focused specifically on the prediction of the core exit temperature, which drives the execution of the most relevant accident management actions. This work presents, in particular, the key improvements made to the TRACE model that helped to improve the code predictions, including the modeling of dynamical heat losses, the nodalization of SGs' heat exchanger tubes and the ACCs. Another relevant aspect of this work is to evaluate how well the model simulations of the three different scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively capture the trends and results exhibited by the actual experiments. For instance, how the number of SGs considered for secondary side depressurization affects the heat transfer from primary side; how the discharge capacity of the pressurizer relief valve affects the dynamics of the transient; how ACC initial pressure and nitrogen release affect the grace time between ACC injection and subsequent core heat up; and how well the alternative feeding modes of the secondary and/or primary side with mobile injection pumps affect core quenching and ensure stable long-term core cooling under controlled boiling conditions.