• 제목/요약/키워드: Absolute error

검색결과 1,026건 처리시간 0.025초

단변량 시계열 모형들의 단순 결합의 예측 성능 (Performance for simple combinations of univariate forecasting models)

  • 이선홍;성병찬
    • 응용통계연구
    • /
    • 제35권3호
    • /
    • pp.385-393
    • /
    • 2022
  • 본 논문에서는 시계열 예측 분야에서 잘 알려져 있는 단변량 시계열 모형들을 이용하여, 그들의 단순 조합이 어떤 예측력을 보여주는지 연구한다. 고려된 단변량 시계열 모형으로는, 지수평활 및 ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average) 모형들과 그들의 확장된 형태인 모형들 그리고 예측의 벤치마크 모형으로 자주 사용되는 비계절 및 계절 랜덤워크 모형이다. 단순 조합의 방법은 중앙값과 평균을 이용하였으며, 검증을 위하여 사용된 데이터셋은 3,003개의 시계열 자료로 구성된 M3-competition 자료이다. 예측 성능을 sMAPE(symmetric mean absolute percentage error)와 MASE(mean absolute scaled error)로 평가한 결과, 단변량 시계열 모형들의 단순 조합이 아주 우수한 예측력을 가지고 있음을 확인하였다.

퍼지로직을 이용한 차량절대속도 추정 (Absolute Vehicle Speed Estimation using Fuzzy Logic)

  • 송철기;황진권
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제10권1호
    • /
    • pp.179-186
    • /
    • 2002
  • The absolute longitudinal speed of a vehicle is estimated by using vehicle acceleration data from an accelerometer and wheel speed data from standard 50-tooth antiknock braking system wheel speed sensors. An intuitive solution to this problem is, "When wheel slip is low, calculate absolute velocities from the wheel speeds; when wheel slip is high, calculate absolute velocity by integrating the accelerometer." Fuzzy logic is introduced to implement the above idea and a new algorithm of "modified velocities with step integration" is proposed. This algorithm is verified experimentally to estimate speed of a vehicle, and is also shown to estimate absolute longitudinal vehicle speed with a 6% worst-case error during a hard braking maneuver lasting three seconds.

CT절편두께와 RP방식이 3차원 의학모델 정확도에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구 (Influence of slice thickness of computed tomography and type of rapid protyping on the accuracy of 3-dimensional medical model)

  • 엄기두;이병도
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
    • /
    • 제34권1호
    • /
    • pp.13-18
    • /
    • 2004
  • Purpose : This study was to evaluate the influence of slice thickness of computed tomography (CT) and rapid protyping (RP) type on the accuracy of 3-dimensional medical model. Materials and Methods: Transaxial CT data of human dry skull were taken from multi-detector spiral CT. Slice thickness were 1, 2, 3 and 4 mm respectively. Three-dimensional image model reconstruction using 3-D visualization medical software (V-works /sup TM/ 3.0) and RP model fabrications were followed. 2-RP models were 3D printing (Z402, Z Corp., Burlington, USA) and Stereolithographic Apparatus model. Linear measurements of anatomical landmarks on dry skull, 3-D image model, and 2-RP models were done and compared according to slice thickness and RP model type. Results: There were relative error percentage in absolute value of 0.97, 1.98,3.83 between linear measurements of dry skull and image models of 1, 2, 3 mm slice thickness respectively. There was relative error percentage in absolute value of 0.79 between linear measurements of dry skull and SLA model. There was relative error difference in absolute value of 2.52 between linear measurements of dry skull and 3D printing model. Conclusion: These results indicated that 3-dimensional image model of thin slice thickness and stereolithographic RP model showed relative high accuracy.

  • PDF

A Novel Second Order Radial Basis Function Neural Network Technique for Enhanced Load Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Systems

  • Farhat, Arwa Ben;Chandel, Shyam.Singh;Woo, Wai Lok;Adnene, Cherif
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • 제21권2호
    • /
    • pp.77-87
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study, a novel improved second order Radial Basis Function Neural Network based method with excellent scheduling capabilities is used for the dynamic prediction of short and long-term energy required applications. The effectiveness and the reliability of the algorithm are evaluated using training operations with New England-ISO database. The dynamic prediction algorithm is implemented in Matlab and the computation of mean absolute error and mean absolute percent error, and training time for the forecasted load, are determined. The results show the impact of temperature and other input parameters on the accuracy of solar Photovoltaic load forecasting. The mean absolute percent error is found to be between 1% to 3% and the training time is evaluated from 3s to 10s. The results are also compared with the previous studies, which show that this new method predicts short and long-term load better than sigmoidal neural network and bagged regression trees. The forecasted energy is found to be the nearest to the correct values as given by England ISO database, which shows that the method can be used reliably for short and long-term load forecasting of any electrical system.

Development of new models to predict the compressibility parameters of alluvial soils

  • Alzabeebee, Saif;Al-Taie, Abbas
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • 제30권5호
    • /
    • pp.437-448
    • /
    • 2022
  • Alluvial soil is challenging to work with due to its high compressibility. Thus, consolidation settlement of this type of soil should be accurately estimated. Accurate estimation of the consolidation settlement of alluvial soil requires accurate prediction of compressibility parameters. Geotechnical engineers usually use empirical correlations to estimate these compressibility parameters. However, no attempts have been made to develop correlations to estimate compressibility parameters of alluvial soil. Thus, this paper aims to develop new models to predict the compression and recompression indices (Cc and Cr) of alluvial soils. As part of the study, geotechnical laboratory tests have been conducted on large number of undisturbed samples of local alluvial soil. The obtained results from these tests in addition to available results from the literature from different parts in the world have been compiled to form the database of this study. This database is then employed to examine the accuracy of the available empirical correlations of the compressibility parameters and to develop the new models to estimate the compressibility parameters using the nonlinear regression analysis. The accuracy of the new models has been accessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean, percentage of predictions with error range of ±20%, percentage of predictions with error range of ±30%, and coefficient of determination. It was found that the new models outperform the available correlations. Thus, these models can be used by geotechnical engineers with more confidence to predict Cc and Cr.

에스테르화합물에 대한 표준끓는점과 인화점을 이용한 폭발하한계 추산 (Estimation of the Lower Explosion Limits Using the Normal Boiling Points and the Flash Points for the Ester Compounds)

  • 하동명
    • 한국안전학회지
    • /
    • 제22권5호
    • /
    • pp.84-89
    • /
    • 2007
  • 폭발하한계는 가연성물질의 화재 및 폭발 위험성을 결정하는데 사용되는 중요한 연소특성치의 하나이다. 본 연구에서 에스테르 화합물에 대한 폭발하한계는 액체 열역학이론을 근거로 표준끓는점과 인화점을 이용하여 예측하였다. 그 결과, 문헌값과 예측값의 A.A.P.E.(average absolute percent error)는 8.80vo1%이고, A.A.D.(average absolute deviation)는 0.18vo1% 그리고 상관계수는 0.965로써 문헌값과 예측값은 일치하였다. 제시된 방법론 사용에 의해 다른 가연성물질의 폭발하한계 예측이 가능하다.

3D 콘텐츠 생성에서의 스테레오 매칭 알고리즘에 대한 매칭 비용 함수 성능 분석 (Performance Analysis of Matching Cost Functions of Stereo Matching Algorithm for Making 3D Contents)

  • 홍광수;정연규;김병규
    • 융합보안논문지
    • /
    • 제13권3호
    • /
    • pp.9-15
    • /
    • 2013
  • 스테레오 매칭 과정에 있어서 매칭 비용을 구하는 것은 매우 중요한 과정이다. 이러한 스테레오 매칭 과정의 성능을 살펴보기 위하여 본 논문에서는 기존에 제안된 매칭 비용 함수들에 대한 기본 개념들을 소개하고 각각의 성능 및 장점을 분석하고자 한다. 가장 간단한 매칭 비용 함수는 매칭 되는 영상의 일관된 밝기를 이용하여 좌, 우 영상 간 서로 대응하는 대응점을 추정하는 과정으로, 본 논문에서 다루는 매칭 비용함수는 화소 기반과 윈도우 기반의 매칭 비용 방법으로 크게 두 가지로 나눌 수 있다. 화소 기반의 방법으로는 절대 밝기차(the absolute intensity differences: AD)와 sampling-intensitive absolute differences of Birchfield and Tomasi (BT) 방법이 있고, 윈도우 기반의 방법으로는 차이 절대 값의 합(sum of the absolute differences: SAD), 차이 제곱 값의 합(sum of squred differences: SSD), 표준화 상호상관성(normalized cross-correlation: NCC), 제로 평균 표준화 상호 상관성(zero-mean normalized cross-correlation: ZNCC), census transform, the absolute differences census transform (AD-Census) 이 있다. 본 논문에서는 앞서 언급한 기존에 제안된 매칭 비용 함수들을 정확도와 시간 복잡도를 측정했다. 정확도 측면에서 AD-Census 방법이 평균적으로 가장 낮은 매칭 율을 보여줬고, 제로 평균 표준화 상호 상관성 방법은 non-occlusion과 all 평가 항목에서 가장 낮은 매칭 오차율을 보여 주지만, discontinuities 평가 항목에서는 블러 효과 때문에 높은 매칭 오차율을 보여 주었다. 시간 복잡도 측면에서는 화소 기반인 절대 밝기차 방법이 낮은 복잡도를 보여 주였다.

Weibull-3 분포모형의 모멘트법 및 L-모멘트법에 의한 홍수빈도비교분석 (Comparative Analysis of Flood Frequncy by Moment and L-moment in Weibull-3 distribution)

  • 이순혁;맹승진;송기헌;류경식;지호근
    • 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국농공학회 1998년도 학술발표회 발표논문집
    • /
    • pp.331-337
    • /
    • 1998
  • This study was carried out to derive optimal design floods by Weibull-3 distribution with the annual maximum series at seven watersheds along Man, Nagdong, Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data used in this study was acknowledged by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity, detection of Outliers. Parameters were estimated by the Methods of Moments and L-Moments. Design floods obtained by Methods of Moments and L-Moments using different methods for plotting positions in Weibull-3 distribution were compared by the rotative mean error and relative absolute error. It has shown that design floods derived by the method of L-moments using Weibull plotting position formula in Weibull-3 distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by method of moments using different formulas for plotting positions in view of relative mean and relative absolute error.

  • PDF

이웃 탐색점에서의 평균 절대치 오차를 이용한 2단계 고속 블록 정합 알고리듬 (A Two-Stage Fast Block Matching Algorithm Using Mean Absolute Error of Neighbor Search Point)

  • 정원식;이법기;권성근;한찬호;신용달;송규익;이건일
    • 대한전자공학회논문지SP
    • /
    • 제37권3호
    • /
    • pp.41-56
    • /
    • 2000
  • 본 논문에서는 이웃 탐색점에서의 평균 절대치 오차(mean absolute error, MAE)를 이용하여 전역 탐색 알고리듬(full search algorithm, FSA)과 거의 같은 움직임 추정 성능을 얻으면서도 고속으로 움직임을 추정할 수 있는 2단계 고속 블록 정함 알고리듬을 제안하였다. 제안한 방법에서는 현재 탐색점에서 블록 정합을 통하여 얻을 수 있는 MAE의 최소 범위를 이웃 탐색점에서의 MAE를 이용하여 구한 뒤, 이를 이용하여 블록 정합이 필요한 탐색점에 대하여서만 블록 정합을 행하였다. 즉, 제안한 방법에서는 블록 정함이 필요한 탐색점 수를 줄임으로써 고속으로 움직임을 추정하였으며, 움직임 추정을 두 단계로 나누어 수행하였다 모의 설험을 통하여 제안한 방법이 FSA와 거의 같은 움직임 추정 성능을 유지하면서도 많은 계산량의 감소를 얻을 수 있음을 확인하였다

  • PDF

Predicting rock brittleness indices from simple laboratory test results using some machine learning methods

  • Davood Fereidooni;Zohre Karimi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • 제34권6호
    • /
    • pp.697-726
    • /
    • 2023
  • Brittleness as an important property of rock plays a crucial role both in the failure process of intact rock and rock mass response to excavation in engineering geological and geotechnical projects. Generally, rock brittleness indices are calculated from the mechanical properties of rocks such as uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength and modulus of elasticity. These properties are generally determined from complicated, expensive and time-consuming tests in laboratory. For this reason, in the present research, an attempt has been made to predict the rock brittleness indices from simple, inexpensive, and quick laboratory test results namely dry unit weight, porosity, slake-durability index, P-wave velocity, Schmidt rebound hardness, and point load strength index using multiple linear regression, exponential regression, support vector machine (SVM) with various kernels, generating fuzzy inference system, and regression tree ensemble (RTE) with boosting framework. So, this could be considered as an innovation for the present research. For this purpose, the number of 39 rock samples including five igneous, twenty-six sedimentary, and eight metamorphic were collected from different regions of Iran. Mineralogical, physical and mechanical properties as well as five well known rock brittleness indices (i.e., B1, B2, B3, B4, and B5) were measured for the selected rock samples before application of the above-mentioned machine learning techniques. The performance of the developed models was evaluated based on several statistical metrics such as mean square error, relative absolute error, root relative absolute error, determination coefficients, variance account for, mean absolute percentage error and standard deviation of the error. The comparison of the obtained results revealed that among the studied methods, SVM is the most suitable one for predicting B1, B2 and B5, while RTE predicts B3 and B4 better than other methods.