• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.77-87
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• 2021

In this study, a novel improved second order Radial Basis Function Neural Network based method with excellent scheduling capabilities is used for the dynamic prediction of short and long-term energy required applications. The effectiveness and the reliability of the algorithm are evaluated using training operations with New England-ISO database. The dynamic prediction algorithm is implemented in Matlab and the computation of mean absolute error and mean absolute percent error, and training time for the forecasted load, are determined. The results show the impact of temperature and other input parameters on the accuracy of solar Photovoltaic load forecasting. The mean absolute percent error is found to be between 1% to 3% and the training time is evaluated from 3s to 10s. The results are also compared with the previous studies, which show that this new method predicts short and long-term load better than sigmoidal neural network and bagged regression trees. The forecasted energy is found to be the nearest to the correct values as given by England ISO database, which shows that the method can be used reliably for short and long-term load forecasting of any electrical system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.84-89
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• 2007

The lower explosion limit(LEL) is one of the major combustion properties used to determine the fire and explosion hazards of the combustible substances. In this study, the lower explosion limits of the ester compounds were predicted by using the normal boiling points and the flash points based on the liquid thermodynamic theory. As a results, the A.A.P.E.(average absolute percent error) and the A.A.D.(average absolute deviation) of the reported and the calculated the LEL for the ester are 8.80 vol% and 0.18 vol%, respectively and the coefficient of correlation was 0.965. From a given results, by the use of the proposed methodology, it is possible to predict the lower explosion limits of the other flammable materials.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.323-337
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• 2004

This article coined a general class of estimators for various measures in normal population when some' a priori' or guessed value of standard deviation a is available in addition to sample information. The class of estimators is primarily defined for a function of standard deviation. An unbiased estimator and the minimum mean squared error estimator are worked out and the suggested class of estimators is compared with these classical estimators. Numerical computations in terms of percent relative efficiency and absolute relative bias established the merits of the proposed class of estimators especially for small samples. Simulation study confirms the excellence of the proposed class of estimators. The beauty of this article lies in estimation of various measures like standard deviation, variance, Fisher information, precision of sample mean, process capability index $C_{p}$, fourth moment about mean, mean deviation about mean etc. as particular cases of the proposed class of estimators.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.234-240
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• 2002

This paper treats the problem of estimating the longitudinal velocity of a braking vehicle using measurements from an accelerometer and wheel speed data from standard anti-lock braking wheel speed sensors. We develop and experimentally test three velocity estimation algorithms of increasing complexity. The algorithm that works the best gives peak errors of less than 3 percent even when the accelerometer signal is significantly biased.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.19 no.2 s.58
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• pp.1-7
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• 2005

An accurate knowledge of the minimum oxygen concentration(MOC) is important in developing appropriate prevention and control measures in industrial fire protection. In this study, by using the literature data and RSM(response surface methodology), the new equations for predicting the MOC are proposed. The A.A.P.E.(average absolute percent error) and the A.A.D.(average absolute deviation) of the reported and the calculated MOC for hydrocarbons were $3.48\%\;and\;0.37\;vol\%$, respectively and the correlation coefficient was 0.919. The A.A.P.E and the A.A.D of the reported and the calculated MOC for halogenated hydrocarbons and hydrocarbons were $5.06\%$ and $0.59vo1\%$, and the correlation coefficient was 0.938. The values calculated by the proposed equations were in good agreement with the literature data. Therefore, it is expected that this proposed equations will support the use of the research for other flammable substances.

• Advances in Energy Research
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.111-123
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• 2022

Solar Energy is the energy of solar radiation carried by them in the form of heat and light. It can be converted into electricity. Solar potential depends on the site's atmosphere; the solar energy distribution depends on many factors, e.g., turbidity, cloud types, pollution levels, solar altitude, etc. We estimated solar radiation with the help of the Ashrae clear-sky model for three locations in Pakistan, namely Pasni, Gwadar, and Jiwani. As these locations are close to each other as compared to the distance between the sun and earth, therefore a slight change of latitude and longitude does not make any difference in the calculation of direct beam solar radiation (BSR), diffuse solar radiation (DSR), and global solar radiation (GSR). A modified formula for declination angle is also developed and presented. We also created two different models for Ashrae constants. The values of these constants are compared with the standard Ashrae Model. A good agreement is observed when we used these constants to calculate BSR, DSR, GSR, the Root mean square error (RMSE), Mean Absolute error (MABE), Mean Absolute percent error (MAPE), and chisquare (χ²) values are in acceptance range, indicating the validity of the models.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.207-218
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• 2010

The purpose of the study is to predict the shipping business during the period of 2011 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2010. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors of all the ARIMA-type models are somewhat higher than normally expected. Furthermore, the random walk model outperforms all the ARIMA-type models. This reveals that the BDI is just a random walk phenomenon and it's meaningless to predict the BDI using various econometric techniques. The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market is expected to be bearish in 2011. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-11
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• 2011

In much the same way as the US Lehman crisis of 2008-2009 severely impacted the European economy through financial market dislocation, a European banking crisis would materially impact the US economy through a generalized increase in global risk aversion. A deepening of the European crisis could very well derail the US economic recovery and have a harmful impact on the Asian economies. This kind of vicious circle could be a bad news to the shipping companies. The purpose of the study is to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business during the period of 2012 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2011. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is also calculated. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors, however, are somewhat higher than normally expected. This reveals that it is very difficult to predict the BDI The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market will be bearish in 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Journal of Wind Energy
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.5-11
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• 2019

This paper suggests and compares two algorithms, a moving average filter method and a method developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), to verify the yaw control algorithm characteristic to reduce yaw error for a wind turbine. A characteristic change for yaw movement in accordance with control parameter change that consists of each control method has been verified. Also, yaw simulations were performed using nacelle wind data measured from two areas with different turbulence intensities and the yaw movement data in each area was compared. These two algorithms and real data were compared by calculating mean absolute error (MSE) and the number of yawing (NY). As a result of the analysis, the MSE values were not significantly different between the two algorithms, but the algorithm proposed by the NREL was found to reduce yaw movement by up to 50 percent more than the moving average filter method.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.54-60
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• 2004

Flammable substances are frequently used chemical industry processes. An accurate knowledge of the ALTs(Autoignition Temperatures) is important in developing appropriate prevention and control measures in industrial fire protection. The AITs describe the minimum temperature to which a substance must be heated, without the application of a flame or spark, which will cause that substance to ignite. The AITs are dependent upon many factors, namely initial temperature, pressure, volume, fuel/air stoichiometry, catalyst material, concentration of vapor, ignition delay. This study measured relationship between the AITs and the ignition delay times by using ASTM E659-78 apparatus for methanol and ethanol. The A.A.P.E.(Average Absolute Percent Error) and the A.A.D.(Average Absolute Deviation) of the experimental and the calculated delay times by the AITs for methanol were 14.59 and 1.76 respectively. Also the A.A.P.E. and the A.A.D. of the experimental and the calculated delay times by the ATIs for ethanol were 8.33 and 0.88.