• 경영과학
• /
• 제21권3호
• /
• pp.129-147
• /
• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• 한국임상수의학회지
• /
• 제27권4호
• /
• pp.421-426
• /
• 2010

In view of free from bluetongue (BT) in the domestic cattle population in Korea, the key of quarantine testing for BT virus (BTV) infection is detection of cattle previously exposed to the virus. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of detecting a cattle infected with BTV using a stochastic modeling analysis of existing quarantine testing data. Three testing scenarios were considered in this study: serological testing of all animals in all imported lots (scenario 1), serological testing of a sample of cattle from all imported lots (scenario 2), and serological testing of 50% of imported lots (scenario 3). In scenario 2 and 3, it was assumed that cattle were sampled (sample size) within each lot to detect 5% of the cattle in each lot with a 95% confidence, taking into account diagnostic sensitivity of the ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). The model output was the total number of BTV-infected cattle and the prevalence of BTV infection in imported cattle from the US, Australia, Canada and Japan. Compared to the scenario 1, the probability of detecting a BTV-infected cattle was estimated to be 19% and 1.6% in scenario 2 and 3, respectively. Furthermore, the analyses showed a 95% confidence that BTV prevalence was less or equal to $9.7{\times}10^{-4}$ (median = $1.5{\times}10^{-5}$), indicating that, for the scenario 2 and 3 with serological testing for a sample of cattle, the risk of introducing an exotic strain of BTV into Korea through the importation of live cattle would not be acceptable.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
• /
• 제29권3호
• /
• pp.14-22
• /
• 2024

This study established risk-based fluoride soil contamination standards according to the Korean Soil Contaminant Risk Assessment Guidelines (SRAG). Ten exposure scenarios were evaluated, broadly categorized into Scenario 1, which used the default parameters from the current SRAG, and Scenario 2, which used the latest exposure factors and bio-concentration factors. Fluoride soil standards corresponding to a total hazard index (HI) of 1.0 were determined for each scenario. For children in agricultural areas, the derived risk-based soil fluoride standard was 70 mg/kg for Scenario 1 and 27 mg/kg for Scenario 2. In industrial areas, the risk-based fluoride soil standard was 2200 mg/kg in Scenario 1 and 2300 mg/kg in Scenario 2. This study clearly demonstrated that the crop ingestion exposure pathway exerted predominent influence on the estimated human health risk standards. Additionally, using the Added Risk Approach and considering soil background concentrations, the total fluoride soil standards for residential areas ranged from 232 mg/kg to 444 mg/kg, while the standards for industrial areas ranged from 2405 mg/kg to 2674 mg/kg.

• International Journal of Contents
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.37-41
• /
• 2014

This study defined the pre-elderly as middle age people from 50 to 59. Because it is difficult to produce a design to satisfy the pre-elderly without deeply understanding them, their financial and physical characteristics and persona-based scenario method was studied. An experimental study about persona based scenario method was conducted, and as a result, the types of personas found were as follows: 1) Users enjoy the same games online and offline. 2) Users enjoy playing alone on the computer. 3) Users prefer games that end quickly with win or loss. Writing the situation scenario for each type, the pre-elderly's problems and needs occurring while they play web board games were obtained. The obtained user requests were as follows: users would like the level of difficulty to be simpler in the game of baduk; users wanted unlimited credit and refrainment from using English words in go-Stop; and there were simple comments about game screen design.

• 한국게임학회 논문지
• /
• 제3권2호
• /
• pp.12-18
• /
• 2003

좋은 게임은 독특하고 개성이 뚜렷한 콘텐츠에서 얻어진다. 게임의 콘텐츠는 게임시나리오로 표현되는 만큼, 게임개발은 시나리오창작 작업이 선행되어야 한다. 게임시나리오의 창작은 시나리오기획서로 결과가 나와야 한다. 기획서는 게임개발을 위한 설계도이기 때문이다. 그러나 게임을 제작하는 회사에서나 게임을 교육하고 있는 학계에서는 제대로 된 게임시나리오의 기획서를 쓰지 않고 있는 형편이다. 물론 게임기획서에 시나리오를 대충 삽입시켜버 리는 우리의 게임제작 습성도 한 몫을 하고 있지만, 가장 큰 문제점은 제대로 된 게임시나리오기획서의 서식이 없기 때문이기도 하다. 본고에서는 기획서의 서식에 들어갈 내용들을 간단하게나마 연구하여, 게임 기획서의 기본 서식의 틀을 제안해 보는 것이 목적이다.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
• /
• 제19권2호
• /
• pp.170-179
• /
• 2016

It is a story-based content creation service that provides any user with some proper contents based on a story written by the user in order to utilize a lot of contents accumulated on Internet. For this service, the story has to be described in computer-readable representation. In this paper, analyzing the structure of scenario, as known as screenplay or scripts, a structure of story representation, which is referred to as OpenScenario, is defined. We intend users to produce their own contents by using massive contents on Internet by the proposed method. The proposed method's OpenScenario consists two main parts, OSD (OpenScenario Descriptors) which is a set of descriptors to describe various objects of shots such as visual, aural and textual objects and OSS (OpenScenario Scripts) which is a set of scripts to add some effects such as image, caption, transition between shots, and background music. As an usecase of proposed method, we describe how to create new content using OpenScenario and discuss some required technologies to apply the proposed method effectively.

• 한국측량학회지
• /
• 제33권3호
• /
• pp.193-202
• /
• 2015

The greenbelt of South Korea has been under the process of adjustment and removal since its first designated year. This research is aimed at predicting the effect that the removal of the greenbelt has on urban growth. The SLEUTH model was executed via three calibration phases using historical data between 1990 and 2010. The urban growth of Busan Metropolitan City was predicted under its historical trend, as well as two different scenarios including development and compact development up to the year 2030. The accuracy of model, as verified by ROC, was 85.7%. The historical trend scenario showed the smallest increase, with the urban area expanding from 175.96 km² to 214.68 km² in 2030. Scenario 2, the development scenario, showed the most increase, with a 39.9% growth rate from 2010 to 2030. However, according to scenario 3, the compact development scenario, the urban area decreased in comparison to scenario 2. Accordingly, it is necessary to have effective urban growth management to provoke eco-friendly development on the removed areas, and to strengthen the non-removed areas for sustainable development. The results obtained in this study showed that the SLEUTH model can be useful for predicting urban growth, and that it can help policy makers establish proper urban planning as a decision-support tool for sustainable development.

• 대기
• /
• 제22권2호
• /
• pp.149-161
• /
• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

• 자동차안전학회지
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.25-31
• /
• 2015

This paper presents a performance evaluation procedure for advanced emergency braking (AEB) system. To guarantee the performance of AEB system, AEB test scenario should contains various driving conditions which can be occurred in real driving condition. Also, performances of each elements of AEB system, such as sensor, decision, human machine interface (HMI) and control, should be evaluated in various situations. For this, driving conditions, road types, environment, and elements of AEB system were introduced. Test scenario has been designed to represent the real driving condition and to evaluate the safety performance of AEB system in various situations. To confirm that the proposed AEB test scenario is realistic and physically meaningful, vehicle test have been conducted in two cases of proposed AEB test scenario: subject vehicle cut-out scenario and narrow street turn left scenario.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국태양에너지학회 2009년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
• /
• pp.181-184
• /
• 2009

This study aimed at framing alternative urban planning scenarios reflecting urban planning factors, performing urban climate simulation and evaluating eco-friend and low energy characteristics of each scenario on the viewpoint of urban temperature and energy savings on the target of the costal city including Haeundae District in Busan The results are as follows. 1)The fact that urban higher temperature is approximately 2.5 times higher in the building constructed area than whole urban area was represented severe higher temperature phenomenon in the built-up area. Ground greening, water scenario and soil scenario could be expected peek air temperature alleviating effect in order. Especially water scenario had significant effect(maximum $2.5^{\circ}C$) on lowering of air temperature.