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Copula-based common cause failure models with Bayesian inferences

  • Jin, Kyungho;Son, Kibeom;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.357-367
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    • 2021
  • In general, common cause failures (CCFs) have been modeled with the assumption that components within the same group are symmetric. This assumption reduces the number of parameters required for the CCF probability estimation and allows us to use a parametric model, such as the alpha factor model. Although there are various asymmetric conditions in nuclear power plants (NPPs) to be addressed, the traditional CCF models are limited to symmetric conditions. Therefore, this paper proposes the copulabased CCF model to deal with asymmetric as well as symmetric CCFs. Once a joint distribution between the components is constructed using copulas, the proposed model is able to provide the probability of common cause basic events (CCBEs) by formulating a system of equations without symmetry assumptions. In addition, Bayesian inferences for the parameters of the marginal and copula distributions are introduced and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are employed to sample from the posterior distribution. Three example cases using simulated data, including asymmetry conditions in total failure probabilities and/or dependencies, are illustrated. Consequently, the copula-based CCF model provides appropriate estimates of CCFs for asymmetric conditions. This paper also discusses the limitations and notes on the proposed method.

The Cause Analysis on Fracture of Dropper Clamp in Catenary System (전차선로 드로퍼 클램프 파단 원인 분석)

  • Kim Jung-Nam;Kwon Sung-Tae;Kang Kae-Myung
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.909-914
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    • 2004
  • This study investigate the cause analysis on fracture of dropper clamp in catenary system. Dropper clamp is using as a holder between messenger wire and contact wire in catenary system. To analyze the cause analysis on fracture of dropper clamp, we have conducted experiment such as tension withstand strength test, holding strength test of a new products, SEM and EDX of field fractured specimens.

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A STUDY ON THE DEMAND FOR PROSTHODONTIC TREATMENT OF THE POLICEMAN AND OFFICIALS (치과보철(齒科補綴) 의료(醫療) 수요(需要)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Jai-Bong
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.156-163
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    • 1995
  • A total of 2,510 police personnel aged 20-59 were examined to determine the prosthodontic demands. The results were as follows. 1. Prosthodontic demands increase with aging. 2. Periodontic problem is the major cause of the prosthodontic needs in old personnel. 3. Trauma is the more popular cause of the prosthodontic need than periodontal problem in policeman. 4. The major cause of the untreatment is the lacks of time. 5. The younger persons have more fear of dental treatment. 6. Prostodontic demands show declining trends.

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Retrospective Survey on the Mortality by Extrinsic Disease in Non-human Primates at Zoological Gardens (동물원 영장류에서 외인성 질환에 의한 폐사원인 분석)

  • 신남식;권수완;이기환;김양범;김명철;이재일;현병화;최양규;이철호
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.88-92
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    • 2000
  • In Everland Zoological Gardens, the mortality by extrinsic cause in non-human primates during 1976∼1999 were retrospectively analyzed based on the clinical charts and/or autopsy reports. The number of deaths from extrinsic factor was 61 among a total of 161 monkeys which were died during that period. Among 61 monkeys of death from extrinsic factor, the number at a detailed cause were as follows: strangulation, 17(27.87%); accident fall, 15(24.59%); suffocation, 13(21.31%); drowning, 7(11.48%); death from pressure, 2(3.28%); collision, 2(3.28%); sunstroke, 1(64%); starvation, 1(1.64%); freezing to death, 1(1.64%); contusion, 1(1.64%). The number of deaths from extrinsic factor was 39 among a total of 81 squirrel monkeys which were died during that period. Among 39 squirrel monkeys of death from extrinsic factor, the number at a detailed cause were as follows; suffocation, 11(28.21%); accident fall, 8(20.51%); strangulation, 7(17.95%); drowning, 7(17.95%); death from pressure, 2(5.13%); starvation, 1(2.56%); collision, 1(2.56%). The number of deaths from extrinsic factor was 14 among a total of 50 Japanese macaque died during that period. Among 14 Japanese macaque from extrinsic factor, the number at a detailed cause were as follows; strangulation, 7(50.55%); accident fall, 6(42.85%); suffocation, 1(7.14%). It was considered that far facilities, adequate space and suitable indoor temperature are needed for the prevention of deaths of extrinsic cause at the monkey raising in zoological gardens or research center.

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A Study on Methods for Capacity Building of Fire Cause Investigation in Fire Stations (소방기관의 화재원인조사 역량 강화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eui-Pyeong
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.108-118
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    • 2011
  • In this study, strengths related with fire investigation of fire stations are analyzed and methods for the capacity building of their fire cause investigation are suggested. The methods for capacity building of fire cause investigation suggested are focused on using potential and strengths of current fire fighting and enhancing internal capacity rather than reinforcing investigation personnel, organization, and equipment and ensuring investigation power. The methods suggested in this study are as follows. 1) Because fire investigation results are the basis of fire administration, fire marshals should change their awareness of the need of fire investigation; 2) A fire investigation system should be established to ensure statements of people concerned systematically; 3) A substantial system of fire cause investigation should be established to investigate fire scenes more than twice; 4) A substantial system of fire cause investigation should be established to use such materials as CCTV; 5) Extinguishing should be made in consideration of fire cause investigation and a scene preservation system after extinguishing should be established; 6) A fire investigation system should be established in connection with 119 first-aid and rescue teams and 7) Steps to raise the morale of fire investigation staff should be taken.

The effect of cosmetic package design with the concept of Cause branding on consumers' desire to purchase (코즈 브랜딩 개념을 적용한 화장품 패키지 디자인이 소비자 구매 욕구에 미치는 영향)

  • Ko, Jin;Kim, Boyeun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.479-486
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the preference and value of consumers through the package design of cosmetics with the concept of cause branding, and to propose a package design that can satisfy consumers' needs. I have recruited an experimental group that emphasizes the importance of package design in purchasing cosmetics. And Survey and in-depth interviews were conducted by comparing cause brand's product with general brand's product. In the first experiment, the items were classified into cognitive, emotional, and behavioral responses and a total of 31 subjects were surveyed. In the second experiment, six interviewees were interviewed through a questionnaire prepared by extracting 4 items from Sheth 's consumption value standard. As a result of the experiment, consumers preferred a design that can quickly and accurately grasp the information of the product. Especially, it is not easy to know whether it is a cause brand's product. So It should be stated in the package how it will be socially beneficial.

The Cause of Motion Sickness in Oriental Medicine (멀미의 병인(病因)에 대한 한의학적(韓醫學的) 접근(接近))

  • Han, Yun-Jeong;Jang, Gyu-Tae
    • The Journal of Pediatrics of Korean Medicine
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 2008
  • Objectives The purpose of this study is to investigate that causes of motion sickness in oriental medicine. Methods The internal and external studies about motion sickness were searched Results and Conclusions The motion sickness is induced by conflict of balance system including vestibular, visual and proprioceptive system. The motion sickness is more common in female and in children between 2 and 12 years old. In western medicine, antihistamine and anticholinergic has been used for treatment of motion sickness, but these anti-motion sickness drug turn out to be not a perfect solution and have several side effects. On the other hands, In oriental medical terminology, there is no words equivalent to the "motion sickness", but we consider the motion sickness as state with dizziness, nausea and vomiting. The motion sickness can be induced by either internal or external causes and the internal causes can thought to be a constitutional factor of an individuals, and the general transportation can be an external cause. The important internal cause is a dysfunction of the spleen, stomch(脾胃不調), retention of phlegm and fluids(痰飮), and deficiency of the kidney jing(腎精不足). The wind(風) and fire(火) in the upper part of the body, especially in the head, also can be an important cause of the motion sickness.

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An Analysis of the Causes of Mathematics Anxiety in the Elementary School Students According to the Grades and Sex (학년 및 성별에 따른 초등학생의 수학불안 요인 분석)

  • Kim Hyun-Mi;Kang Wan
    • Journal of Elementary Mathematics Education in Korea
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.89-106
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    • 2006
  • The purposes of this study are to find out differences of the causes of mathematics anxiety in elementary school students according to the Grades and sex, and to find out which causes have more influence on achievement of mathematics and how much it is. For this purposes, the problems of this study are defined as follows: First, are there any differences in the influences of each super-causes and sub-causes of mathematics anxiety according to the Grades? Second, are there any differences in the influences of each super-causes and sub-causes of mathematics anxiety according to the sex? Third, what relation do the super-causes of mathematics anxiety have to the achievement of mathematics? The conclusions of this study are as follows: First, mathematics anxiety is much more affected by the internal cause like the cause of student attitude than the external cause like the causes of circumstance and the cause of teacher. Second. mathematics anxiety is much more affected by a direct experience like the causes of a shortage of time and the causes of student interest than indirect experience like the causes of teacher's authority and the causes of the application of daily life. Third, the causes of circumstance and parent's attitude. its sub-cause, have greater influence on the female group than on the male group. Fourth, in the middle Gradess, the female group is more affected by the cause of student attitude and the cause of circumstance than the male group, but in the higher Grades. the differences disappear and those two become common causes of anxiety. Fifth, As the students go up to the next Grades in school, the cause of teacher, the characteristic of the curriculum and the cause of prejudice have more influence on the mathematics anxiety. Sixth, the causes of teacher, the causes of mathematical curriculum and the causes of student attitude among super-causes of mathematics anxiety have a negative effect on the achievement of mathematics. But the causes of circumstance have a positive effect on it. And also, the causes of mathematical curriculum among super-causes is much related to the causes of teacher and the causes of circumstance.

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A study on the processing for producing remedy sheets taking advantage of natural mineral resources (천연원료를 이용한 치료시트 제조에 관한 연구)

  • Kim eon-won;Choi Jung Sang
    • Proceedings of the Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.243-257
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    • 2002
  • A study on processing for producing cure seat radiated by Original Infrared Rays and Magnatic force. We are well aware that Original Infrared Rays and Magnatic force influence on our human body benificially. In the technical background of this research product, we treated that the product has some operations of ceramic hardwood charcoal, far infrared rays and magnetic, so it can serve large part curative values made of far infrared rays and magnetic force of ceramics. Also, in the special quality of the product deal with ceramic, hard charcoal, ferrite, gelatin what is needed in production. And among them, ferrite, ceramic and hard charcoal are introduced by the manufacturing process of the moleculeization. In concluding, this study described the manufacturing process on the basis of the worksheets and arranged the useful effect which effect on human body. There are so many symptoms in the pain of muscle. It's very various. for example, it is the cause of the liver, the spleen and a kidney function's weakening. the cause of the backbone subluxation, the cause of the shoulder joint and scapula, the cause of the sacrum and iliacjoint, the cause of hip joint and the cause of a sprain. In this thesis, we mainly deal with the method which the muscle and nervous system disease by fatigue and a sprain cure seat radiated by Original Infrared Rays and Magnatic force. then, Original Infrared Rays and Magnatic force pack up frapezius muscle, gluteus minimum muscle, gluteus medius muscle, gluteus maximus muscle, pririformis muscle around the spine. through this course the moral pressure by the nervous system disease can be treat.

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Construction of Case-based System for the Cause Diagnosis of an Electrical Fires (전기화재 원인진단을 위한 사례기반 시스템 구축)

  • Lee, Jong-Ho;Kim, Doo-Hyun;Kim, Sung-Chul
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2 s.66
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    • pp.42-47
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents the development of a case-based system for an electrical fire cause diagnosis system using the entity relation database. The relation database which provides a very simple but powerful way of representing data is widely used. The system focused on database construction and cause diagnosis can diagnose the causes of electrical fires easily and efficiently. In order to store and access to the information concerned with electrical fires, the key index items which identify electrical fires uniquely are derived out. The case-based system consists of a case which contains information from the past fires. The case-based system could present the cause of a newly occurred fire to be diagnosed by searching the case-based database for reasonable matching. The case-based system has not only searching functions with multiple attributes by using the collected various information(such as fire evidence, structure, and weather of a fire scene) but also more improved diagnosis functions which can be easily used for the electrical fire cause diagnosis system.