• 제목/요약/키워드: 50 year design wave heights

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Characteristics on the Extreme Value Distributions of Deepwater Design ave Heights off the Korean Coast (한국 연안 심해 설계파고의 극치분포 특성)

  • Shin Taek Jeong;Jeong Dae Kim;Cho Hong Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.130-141
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    • 2004
  • For a coastal or harbor structure design, one of the most important environmental factors is the appropriate design wave condition. Especially, the information of deepwater wave height distribution is essential for reliability design. In this paper, a set of deep water wave data obtained from KORDI(2003) were analyzed for extreme wave heights. These wave data at 67 stations off the Korean coast from 1979 to 1998 were arranged in the 16 directions. The probability distributions considered in this research were the Weibull, the Gumbel, the Log-pearson Type-III, and Lognormal distribution. For each of these distributions, three parameter estimation methods, i.e. the method of moments, maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments, were applied. Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests were performed, and the assumed distribution was accepted at the confidence level 95%. Gumbel distribution which best fits to the 67 station was selected as the most probable parent distribution, and optimally estimated parameters and 50 year design wave heights were presented.

Effects of Storm Waves Caused by Typhoon Bolaven (1215) on Korean Coast: A Comparative Analysis with Deepwater Design Waves

  • Taegeon Hwang;Seung-Chul Seo;Hoyeong Jin;Hyeseong Oh;Woo-Dong Lee
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.149-163
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    • 2024
  • This paper employs the third-generation simulating waves nearshore (SWAN) ocean wave model to estimate and analyze storm waves induced by Typhoon Bolaven, focusing on its impact along the west coast and Jeju Island of Korea. Utilizing reanalyzed meteorological data from the Japan Meteorological Agency meso scale model (JMA-MSM), the study simulated storm waves from Typhoon Bolaven, which maintained its intensity up to high latitudes as it approached the Korean Peninsula in 2012. Validation of the SWAN model against observed wave data demonstrated a strong correlation, particularly in regions where wind speeds exceeded 20 m/s and wave heights surpassed 5 m. Results indicate significant storm wave heights across Jeju Island and Korea's west and southwest seas, with coastal grid points near islands recording storm wave heights exceeding 90% of the 50-year return period design wave heights. Notably, specific grid points near islands in the northern West Sea and southwest Jeju Island estimated storm wave heights at 90.22% and 91.48% of the design values, respectively. The paper highlights the increased uncertainty and vulnerability in coastal disaster predictions due to event-driven typhoons and emphasizes the need for enhanced accuracy and speed in typhoon wave predictions amid the escalating climate crisis.

Analysis of Extreme Wave Conditions for Long-Term Wave Observation Data Considering Directionality (방향성을 고려한 장기 파랑관측자료의 극치파랑조건 분석)

  • Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.700-711
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    • 2022
  • In this study, deepwater design waves were estimated for 16 wave directions and various return periods based on statistical analysis of extreme waves observed for more than 20 years at three stations (Chilbal-do, Geomun-do, Donghae). These values were compared with design waves estimated based on the omni-directional wave data. The Weibull distribution was used as the probability distribution function whose parameters were determined by the least square method. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied for the goodness of fit test. Notably, the directional design waves were smaller than the omni-directional design wave for every wave direction. The maximum 50-year wave heights for directional sectors were 7.46 m (NNE), 12.05 m (S), and 9,59 m (SSW) at Chilbal-do, Geomun-do and Donghae whereas those for uni-directional wave data were 7.91 m, 13.82 m and 10.38 m, respectively. This implied possible under-estimation of the deepwater design waves for 16 wave directions being currently used in the design of offshore and coastal structures.

A Study on Experiment for Countermeasures to Overtopping at Tapdong Revetment in Jeju (제주시 탑동 호안 월파 대응 방안에 관한 모형실험)

  • Koh, Hyeok-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Rok;Cho, Il-Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.163-169
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, model test on the Tapdong's revetment at Jeju-si has been conducted to figure out the causes of frequent occurrence of wave overtopping and to suggest the action plan. In the model test, the reflection coefficients were measured according to the change of wave periods for with and without armor stones. Also, the wave overtopping rate and the wave pressures inside revetment structure for 4 types of upper block were estimated for various wave heights and wave periods, which are chosen based on the NE design wave with 50 year return period. It is found that the increase of the upper structure's height and the modification of the curved protruding shape are effective in reducing the overtopping rate.

Analysis of Confidence Interval of Design Wave Height Estimated Using a Finite Number of Data (한정된 자료로 추정한 설계파고의 신뢰구간 분석)

  • Jeong, Weon-Mu;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2013
  • It is estimated and analyzed that the design wave height and the confidence interval (hereafter CI) according to the return period using the fourteen-year wave data obtained at Pusan New Port. The functions used in the extreme value analysis are the Gumbel function, the Weibull function, and the Kernel function. The CI of the estimated wave heights was predicted using one of the Monte-Carlo simulation methods, the Bootstrap method. The analysis results of the estimated CI of the design wave height indicate that over 150 years of data is necessary in order to satisfy an approximately ${\pm}$10% CI. Also, estimating the number of practically possible data to be around 25~50, the allowable error was found to be approximately ${\pm}$16~22% for Type I PDF and ${\pm}$18~24% for Type III PDF. Whereas, the Kernel distribution method, a typical non-parametric method, shows that the CI of the method is below 40% in comparison with the CI of the other methods and the estimated design wave height is 1.2~1.6 m lower than that of the other methods.

Assessment of Wave Change considering the Impact of Climate Change (기후변화 영향을 고려한 파랑 변화 평가)

  • Chang Kyum Kim;Ho Jin Lee;Sung Duk Kim;Byung Cheol Oh;Ji Eun Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2023
  • According to the climate change scenarios, the intensity of typhoons, a major factor in Korea's natural disaster, is expected to increase. The increase in typhoon intensity leads to a rise in wave heights, which is likely to cause large-scale disasters in coastal regions with high populations and building density for dwelling, industry, and tourism. This study, therefore, analyzed observation data of the Donghae ocean data buoy and conducted a numerical model simulation for wave estimations for the typhoon MAYSAK (202009) period, which showed the maximum significant wave height. The boundary conditions for wave simulations were a JMA-MSM wind field and a wind field applying the typhoon central pressure reduction rate in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. As a result of the wave simulations, the wave height in front of the breakwater at Sokcho port was increased by 15.27% from 4.06 m to 4.68 m in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Furthermore, the return period at the location of 147-2 grid point of deep-sea design wave was calculated to increase at least twice, it is necessary to improve the deep-sea design wave of return period of 50-year, which is prescriptively applied when designing coastal structures.