• Title/Summary/Keyword: 3RCM

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Future Projection of Extreme Climate over the Korean Peninsula Using Multi-RCM in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Project (CORDEX-EA Phase 2 다중 지역기후모델을 이용한 한반도 미래 극한 기후 전망)

  • Kim, Do-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Byun, Young-Hwa;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Won;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Ahn, Joong-Bae;Cha, Dong-Hyun;Min, Seung-Ki;Chang, Eun-Chul
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.607-623
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    • 2021
  • This study presents projections of future extreme climate over the Korean Peninsula (KP), using bias-corrected data from multiple regional climate model (RCM) simulations in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 project. In order to confirm difference according to degree of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, high GHG path of SSP5-8.5 and low GHG path of SSP1-2.6 scenario are used. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, mean temperature and precipitation over KP are projected to increase by 6.38℃ and 20.56%, respectively, in 2081~2100 years compared to 1995~2014 years. Projected changes in extreme climate suggest that intensity indices of extreme temperatures would increase by 6.41℃ to 8.18℃ and precipitation by 24.75% to 33.74%, being bigger increase than their mean values. Both of frequency indices of the extreme climate and consecutive indices of extreme precipitation are also projected to increase. But the projected changes in extreme indices vary regionally. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the extreme climate indices would increase less than SSP5-8.5 scenario. In other words, temperature (precipitation) intensity indices would increase 2.63℃ to 3.12℃ (14.09% to 16.07%). And there is expected to be relationship between mean precipitation and warming, which mean precipitation would increase as warming with bigger relationship in northern KP (4.08% ℃-1) than southern KP (3.53% ℃-1) under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected relationship, however, is not significant for extreme precipitation. It seems because of complex characteristics of extreme precipitation from summer monsoon and typhoon over KP.

Exploring the Changes in Elementary Teachers' Modeling pPCK for Science Modeling Instructions Through Knowledge Exchange of the Refined Consensus Model (개선된 합의 모델(RCM)의 지식 교환을 통한 초등교사의 모델링 pPCK 변화 탐색)

  • Hyun-Ju Kim;Chae-Seong Lim;Ki-Young Lee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.105-117
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study was to explore changes in elementary teachers' modeling pPCK (personal PCK) resulting from knowledge exchange within the realms of PCK described in the Refined Consensus Model (hereafter RCM). For this purpose, a professional learning community (hereafter PLC) was established for three elementary school teachers to facilitate knowledge exchange specifically focused on science modeling instructions. The study then analyzed the CoRe (content representations) written by the research participants twice to explore any changes in modeling pPCK (personal PCK). In addition, the discourse shared by the participants in the PLC and the data from the in-depth interviews were also analyzed using grounded theory research methods. The results of the study showed that there was no significant change in knowledge of the science curriculum in elementary teachers' modeling pPCK, but there were changes in orientations toward teaching science, knowledge of students' understanding in science, knowledge of instructional strategies and representations, and knowledge of assessment of science learning. Furthermore, the analysis of PLC discourse and in-depth interviews showed that modeling instructions reflection (ePCK; enacted PCK) and educational research-based modeling cPCK (collective PCK) influenced these changes in teachers' modeling pPCK. Accordingly, this study suggests recommendations for pedagogical approaches aimed at improving teachers' modeling PCK.

Efficient Total Synthesis of (-)-Antofine by Using (R)-(E)-4-(tributylstannanyl)but-3- en-2-ol as a Chiral building block

  • Lee, Eun-Jung;Lee, Tae-Ho;Lee, Jaek-Wang;Kim, Sang-Hee
    • Proceedings of the PSK Conference
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    • 2003.10b
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    • pp.182.3-183
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    • 2003
  • (-)-Antofine is phenanthroindolizidine alkaloid being isolated from Cynanchum vincetoxicum. It has powerful cytotoxicity toward drug-sensitive KB-3-1 and multidrug resistant KB-V1 cancer cell line. We have successfully accomplished stereoselective total synthesis by using palladium catalyzed Stille coupling of l0-bromomethyl-2,3 ,6-trimethoxy-phenanthrene and (R)-(E)-4-(tributylstannanyl)but-3-en-2-o1, Overmann rearrangement of imidate, and RCM(ring-closing metathesis) for construction of pyrrolidine.

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Development of High Resolution Climate Change Scenario Bias Correction Method for Hydrologic Application (수문학적 활용을 위한 고해상도 기후시나리오 편의보정 기법 개발)

  • Lee, Moon-Hwan;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.158-158
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    • 2012
  • 기후시나리오는 시 공간 해상도가 낮아 결과를 직접적으로 활용하기에는 한계가 있다. 따라서 국내외적으로 지역기후모형(RCM)을 통해 고해상도 기후시나리오를 생산하여 각 분야의 영향평가 시 활용하고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 기후모형이 갖는 한계로 인하여 시나리오는 관측자료에 비해 과소모의되는 경향이 발생하기 때문에 이를 고려할 수 있는 편의보정 과정이 필요하다. 하지만 국내 외적으로 여러 편의보정기법이 존재하며, 편의보정기법 선정에 따라 최종 평가 결과에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 특히 수문 분야에서 활용하기 위해 기후시나리오 중 가장 중요한 요건은 일단 관측치의 월 및 계절별 변동성이 잘 반영되는 가이며, 두 번째는 극한 사상(high, low)을 얼마나 잘 모의하여 홍수와 가뭄을 평가하는데 용이한 가이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존 편의보정 기법의 불확실성을 평가하고, 이를 통해 수문학적 활용을 위한 고해상도 기후시나리오의 편의 보정 기법을 제안 및 적용성 평가를 수행하고자 한다. 기존 편의보정기법의 적용성을 평가하기 위해 Change factor method, Quantile mapping, Weather Generator 등을 이용하였다. 이를 위해 역학적으로 상세화된 기후시나리오와 기상청 관할의 기상관측소의 최고기온, 최저기온, 평균기온, 강수량 등의 기후 자료를 수집하였다. 평가를 위해 선정한 관측소 지점은 1951년부터 강수 및 기온 자료가 존재하는 기상청 관할 기상관측소를 토대로, 지역적인 평가를 위해 최종적으로 서울, 강릉, 대구, 부산, 목포, 광주, 전주, 울산, 추풍령을 선정하였다. 이 중 1956~1980년을 과거기간으로 1981~2005년를 미래기간으로 가정하고, 편의 보정 기법 적용하여 기온과 강수량의 통계적 특성을 비교 분석하였으며 평가결과, 편의보정 기법의 따른 한계점들을 도출하였다. 한계점들을 개선하기 위해 본 연구에서 제안한 편의 보정기법은 강수량을 크게 3단계(극한 호우사상, 강수일수, 평균 표준편차 보정)로 나누어 편의보정을 실시하는 것으로 극한 호우사상을 위해서는 연최대치 계열을 이용한 회귀식을 이용하여 보정하였고, 비초과확률을 이용하여 RCM 결과값의 강수일수를 보정하였다. 최종적으로 나머지 강수시나리오에 대해서 평균과 표준편차를 보정하여 최종시나리오를 생산 및 적용성을 평가하였다. 평가 결과, 기존 편의보정기법의 단점을 극복할 수 있었으며, 이를 통해 향후 수문학 분야에 적용하여 신뢰성 있는 기후변화 영향평가를 수행될 수 있을 것이다. 제안한 편의보정 기법 및 평가 결과에 대한 자세한 내용은 발표 시 제시하고자 한다.

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Analysis of Difference in extreme rainfall according to bias-correction method on KMA national standard scenarios (기상청 국가표준시나리오의 편의보정방법에 따른 극한강우량의 차이 분석)

  • Choi, Jeonghyeon;Won, Jeongeun;Kim, Sangdan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.195-195
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    • 2018
  • 기상청에서는 영국 전지구기후모델인 HadGEM2-AO 기반의 영국 지역기후모델 HadGEM3-RA로부터 생산된 기후변화 시나리오를 기후변화예측을 위한 국가표준시나리오 자료로 제공하고 있다. 하지만, 기후모델의 특성상, 관측자료와 모의자료 간에는 통계적인 차이가 존재하며, 이러한 차이를 무시하고 원자료를 그대로 분석에 사용하는 것은 무의미 하다. 따라서 이러한 보정하기 위해서 주로 Quantile Mapping, Quantile Delta Mapping, Detrended Quantile Mapping 방법이 주로 사용된다. 하지만 어떠한 편의보정 방법이든 극값이 다수 존재하는 미래기간 모의자료를 보정할 때에는 외삽법(extrapolation)의 적용이 필요하다. 외삽법의 경우 constant correction 방법이 주로 적용된다. 본 연구에서는 기상청의 국가표준시나리오를 대상으로 이러한 편의보정 방법의 적용에 따른 미래 극한강우량의 차이를 분석하고자 하였다. 우선, 모의자료에서 우리나라 주요 기상관측지점에 해당하는 격자로부터 강우량자료를 추출하고 연최대강우시계열을 산정하였다. 그 후, 위의 세 가지 편의보정 방법을 이용하여 강우자료의 편의보정을 수행하였으며, constant correction 방법을 적용하여 이상치를 보정하였다. 그 후, 보정된 미래기간 모의자료의 추세를 분석하고, 이를 미래 확률강우량 산정방법인 scale-invariance 기법에 적용하여 미래 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 그 결과, 외삽법의 적용에 따라 편의보정 방법에 따라 미래 자료의 추세 또는 확률강우량의 변화패턴은 큰 차이를 나타내지 않았지만, 그 값 자체는 다소 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 차이는 사용된 GCM과 RCM 조합으로 인한 오차와 더해져, 미래 예측결과의 불확실성으로 나타나기에 미래 극한강우량 예측을 위해서는 다수의 GCM, RCM 조합뿐만 아니라 다수의 편의보정 방법에 따른 결과도 함께 고려(ensemble)하여 결과를 나타내는 것이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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Development of a 3D-Graphics Based Visualization Application for Reliability-Centered Maintenance (신뢰도 중심 유지보수 기법을 이용한 3차원 기반의 변전소 유지보수 시각화 프로그램 개발)

  • Jung, Hong-Suk;Park, Chang-Hyun;Jang, Gil-Soo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.11b
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    • pp.288-290
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a visualization application using 3D-graphics for effective maintenance of power equipment. The maintenance algorithm implemented in the application is based on Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) and Reliability -Centered Maintenance (RCM). The main frame of the developed application was made up based on Windows Application Programming Interface (API) and Microsoft Fundamental Classes (MFC). In order to develop the interactive 3D application, the WorldToolKit (WTK) library based on Open GL was used. Also Text-to-Speech (TTS) technology was used to enhance the efficiency of operators. The developed application can help the power system operators to intuitively recognize the present state and maintenance information of the equipment.

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Development of a 3D-Graphics Based Visualization Application for power equipments Maintenance (3차원 그래픽을 이용한 설비 유지보수 시각화 프로그램 개발)

  • Jung, Hong-Suk;Park, Chang-Hyun;Jang, Gil-Soo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.246-248
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents a visualization application using 3D-graphics for effective maintenance of power equipments. The maintenance algorithm implemented in the application is based on Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) and Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM). The main frame of the developed application was made up based on visual C++ (MFC). In order to develop the interactive 3D application, the WorldToolKit library based on Open GL was used. The developed application can help the power system operators to intuitively recognize the present state and maintenance information of the equipments.

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Study on the Water and Material Exchange in Deukryang Bay 1. Volume Transport and Turnover Time of Sea Water (득량만의 해수 교환 및 물질 순환에 관한 연구 1 . 해수의 수송량 및 교환 시간)

  • 조규대;이충일
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.311-320
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    • 1998
  • The volume transport and turnover time of the Deukryang Bay. located at the southern area of Korea, were calculated based on the current meter(RCM-7,ACM 16M) data observed at the three gateways of the tegrating observed data and then averaging on time. dangdo and Kogumdo. The total water volume transports through three entrances of the bay in May and October were $3.9{\times}10-2Sv, 3.4{\times}10^{-2}Sv(1Sv=10^6m^3s^{-1}$) and turnover time were 0.97day, 1.12day, respectively. Semidiurnal tides were predominant (70~85%). The water volume transports by residual currents were 2~4% of total water volume transports . The average fraction of fresh water calculated by tidal prism method using salinity difference between inflow current and outflow current through three entrances In Deukryang Bay was about 0.06% of total volume and the flushing time of fresh water was estimated as 0.97day.

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Evaluation of Hydrogenation Properties of Thixotropic Mg-3, 6wt%Ni Hydrogen Absorbing Alloys (이상점성 처리된 Mg-3, 6wt%Ni합긍의 수소화 특성평가)

  • Lee, Sung-Gon;Ha, Won;Hong, Tae-Whan;Kim, Young-Jig
    • Korean Journal of Materials Research
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.935-940
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    • 2002
  • Magnesium-3, 6wt% Nickel alloys were fabricated by Rotation-Cylinder Method(RCM) in ambient atmosphere. The alloys were divided into two different heat-treating conditions, as-cast and thixotropic treated. Thixotropic heat treatment enhances the separation of primary hydride former of Mg and the catalytic phase of $Mg_2$Ni. Hydrogenation properties of the each alloy were evaluated and compared by PCI(Pressure-Composition Isotherm) measurement. The maximum hydrogen capacity and the reversible capacity of as -cast Mg-6wt% Ni alloy were 5.2wt% and 3.8wt% at 623k, respectively.

Synthesis and Antiviral Activity of Novel 2′-Methyl and 4′-Phenyl Branched Carbocyclic Nucleosides (2′-메칠 및 4′-페닐 측쇄를 가진 새로운 카보사이클릭 뉴크레오사이드의 합성 및 항바이러스 약효검색)

  • 양선화;홍준희
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.88-92
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    • 2004
  • In this study; a series of 2',4'-doubly branched carbocyclic nucleosides (8,9,10) were synthesized from simple acyclic ketone derivative as starting material. The installation of the 4'-quaternary carbon needed was carried out using a 〔3,3〕-sigmatropic rearrangement. In addition, the introduction of a methyl group in the 2'-position was accomplished by Grig-nard reaction. Bis-vinyl was successfully cyclized using a Grubbs' catalyst II. The natural bases (adenine, cytosine, uracil) were efficiently coupled with the use of a Pd(0) catalyst. Although all the synthesized compounds were assayed against several viruses, only cytosine analogue 9 showed weak antiviral viral activity (EC$_{50}$=45.4 $\mu$M) against CoxB3 virus.s.