• Title/Summary/Keyword: 3-parameter weibull

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Parameter Estimation and Analysis of Extreme Highest Tide Level in Marginal Seas around Korea (한국 연안 최극 고조위의 매개변수 추정 및 분석)

  • Jeong, Shin-Taek;Kim, Jeong-Dae;Ko, Dong-Hui;Yoon, Gil-Lim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.482-490
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    • 2008
  • For a coastal or harbor structure design, one of the most important environmental factors is the appropriate extreme highest tide level condition. Especially, the information of extreme highest tide level distribution is essential for reliability design. In this paper, 23 set of extreme highest tide level data obtained from National Oceanographic Research Institute(NORI) were analyzed for extreme highest tide levels. The probability distributions considered in this research were Generalized Extreme Value(GEV), Gumbel, and Weibull distribution. For each of these distributions, three parameter estimation methods, i.e. the method of moments, maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments, were applied. Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-offit tests were performed, and the assumed distribution was accepted at the confidence level 95%. Gumbel distribution which best fits to the 22 tidal station was selected as the most probable parent distribution, and optimally estimated parameters and extreme highest tide level with various return periods were presented. The extreme values of Incheon, Cheju, Yeosu, Pusan, and Mukho, which estimated by Shim et al.(1992) are lower than that of this result.

MTBF Estimator in Reliability Growth Model with Application to Weibull Process (와이블과정을 응용한 신뢰성 성장 모형에서의 MTBF 추정$^+$)

  • 이현우;김재주;박성현
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 1998
  • In reliability analysis, the time difference between the expected next failure time and the current failure time or the Mean Time Between Failure(MTBF) is of significant interest. Until recently, in reliability growth studies, the reciprocal of the intensity function at current failure time has been used as being equal to MTBE($t_n$)at the n-th failure time $t_n$. That is MTBF($t_n$)=l/$\lambda (t_n)$. However, such a relationship is only true for Homogeneous Poisson Process(HPP). Tsokos(1995) obtained the upper bound and lower bound for the MTBF($t_n$) and proposed an estimator for the MTBF($t_n$) as the mean of the two bounds. In this paper, we provide the estimator for the MTBF($t_n$) which does not depend on the value of the shape parameter. The result of the Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed estimator has better efficiency than Tsokos's estimator.

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Reliability Analysis of Exhaust Bellows Based on ALT (가속 수명 시험을 이용한 자동차용 배기 벨로우즈의 수명 해석)

  • Kim, Hyung-Min;Wee, Shin-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Soo;Kim, Sung-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1667-1672
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    • 2007
  • In order to assess the reliability of the exhaust bellows for automobiles, accelerated life test model and procedure are developed. By using this method, failure mechanism and life distribution are analyzed. The main results are as follows; i) the main failure mechanism is crack or breakage of inner flexible tube by shaken displacement at shear direction. ii) temperature is a second factor to affect a failure. iii) the life distribution of exhaust bellows is fitted well to Weibull life distribution and the shape parameter is 13.3 on condition of shaken displacement and $600^{\circ}C$

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A probabilistic fatigue failure analysis for FRSCC with Granite sawing waste

  • K, Aarthi.;K, Arunachalam.;S, Thivakar.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.969-982
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    • 2016
  • This paper investigates the compressive fatigue behaviour of polypropylene fibre reinforced self compacting concrete with Granite Sawing Waste (GSW). An experimental programme was conducted to obtain the fatigue lives of fibre reinforced self compacting concrete (FRSCC) at various stress levels. The stress ratio was kept constant as 0.3. Compressive fatigue test was conducted on 60 cubic specimens with 100mm edge length and 0.1% of polypropylene fibres at a frequency of 0.05Hz. The test results indicate that the fatigue lives of concretes containing granite sawing waste follow the double-parameter Weibull distribution. The fatigue strength equations have been developed based on different probabilities of failure.

Free Spanning of Offshore Pipelines by DNV

  • CHOI HAN SUK
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.2 s.63
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2005
  • This paper introduces a procedure for free span and fatigue analysis of offshore pipelines per DNV-RP-F105, 2002. The new method includes the axial force and deflection load in pipelines. The screening criteria were established to calculate the allowable span lengths in the new design codes. The screening criteria allows a certain amount of vortex-induced vibration due to wave and current loading. However, the induced pipe stresses are very small and usually below the limit stresess of typical S-N curves. In contrast, the conventional criteria did not allow any vortex-induced vibration in the free span of pipelines. Thus, the screening criteria yields reduced allowable span lengths. A simplified procedure was established to calculate the fatigue damage due to long-term current distribution. The long-term current statistics was assumed with a 3-parameter Weibull distribution. The fatigue damage was estimated for the span lengths obtained from the screening criteria for various conditions. Sample calculations show the effect of axial force for various boundary conditions. Comparisons with conventional criteria are included.

Reliability Evaluation on PTC Heater Using Accelerated Life Test and Failure Analysis (고장 분석과 가속 수명시험을 통한 PTC 히터의 신뢰성 평가)

  • Choi, Hyoung-Seuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.28 no.12
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    • pp.843-846
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, the failure mechanism of PTC heater were examined closely by failure analysis and based on it, accelerated life test were conducted. Finally, life distribution and acceleration model were established. The failure mechanism of PTC heater such as crack, increase of resistance due to heating were identified. Two acceleration factors such as temperature, humidity were chosen with two levels each and accelerated life test were done. Life distribution were identified as Weibull distribution with shape parameter 5.4 and Temperature-Humidity model was fitted as an acceleration model.

Effect of Mean Stress on Probability Distribution of Random Grown Crack size in Magnesium Alloy AZ31 (평균응력이 AZ31 마그네슘합금의 렌덤진전균열크기 확률분포에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Seon-Soon;Lee, Ouk-Sub
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.536-543
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    • 2009
  • In this paper the mean stress effects on the probability distribution of the random grown crack size at a specified loading cycle are studied through the fatigue crack propagation tests, which are conducted on the specimens of magnesium alloy under four different stress ratios. Through 80 replicates the probability distributions of the grown crack size are obtained. The goodness-of-fit for probability distributions of the random grown crack size are investigated by Anderson-Darling test and the best fit for those probability distributions is found to be a 3-parameter Weibull distribution. The effects of the mean stress on the probability distribution of the random grown crack size are also estimated.

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Free Spanning of Offshore Pipelines by DNV 2002 (DNV 2002에 의한 해저관로의 자유경간해석)

  • Choi, Han-Suk;Joo, Joo-Kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2002
  • A procedure of free span and fatigue analysis of offshore pipelines was made per DNV-RP-F105, 2002. The new method includes the axial force and deflection load in pipelines. The screening criteria were used to calculate the allowable span lengths. The screening criteria allow small amplitudes of vortex-induced vibration due to wave and current loading. However, the induced pipe stress is very small and usually below the limit stress of a typical S-N curve. A simplified method was established to calculate the fatigue damage due to long-term current distribution. The long-term current statistics was assumed with a 3-parameter Weibull distribution. The fatigue damage was estimated for the span lengths obtained from the screening criteria for various conditions. Sample calculations show the effect of axial force for various boundary conditions.

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Evaluation of the Fracture Toughness Transition Characteristics of RPV Steels Based on the ASTM Master Curve Method Using Small Specimens (소형시험편의 Master Curve 방법을 이용한 원자로 압력용기강의 파괴인성 천이특성평가)

  • Yang, Won-Jon;Heo, Mu-Yeong;Kim, Ju-Hak;Lee, Bong-Sang;Hong, Jun-Hwa
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.24 no.2 s.173
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    • pp.303-310
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    • 2000
  • Fracture toughness of five different reactor pressure vessel steels was characterized in the transition temperature region by the ASTM E1921-97 standard method using Charpy-sized small specimens. T he predominant fracture mode of the tested steels was transgranular cleavage in the test conditions. A statistical analysis based on the Weibull distribution was applied to the interpretation of the scattered fracture toughness data. The size-dependence of the measured fracture toughness values was also well predicted by means of the Weibull probabilistic analysis. The measured fracture toughness transition curves followed the temperature-dependence of the ASTM master curve within the expected scatter bands. Therefore, the fracture toughness characteristics in the transition region could be described by a single parameter, so-called the reference temperature (T。), for a given steel. The determined reference temperatures of the tested materials could not be correlated with the conventional index temperatures from Charpy impact tests.

Accelerated Life Test of Industrial Cleaner Motor (산업용 청소기 모터의 가속수명시험)

  • Eom, Hak-Yong;Lee, Gi-Chun;Chang, Mu-Seong;Park, Jong-Won;Lee, Yong-Bum
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: In this study, the life of the motor is investigated by performing the accelerated life test with the brush wear of the industrial cleaner motor as the main failure mode. Methods: The accelerating stress factor of the accelerated life test is a voltage, which can increase the number of revolutions of the motor to accelerate the brush wear due to the friction between the brush and the commutator. Also, the accelerating stress level was determined after determining the maximum allowable level of the voltage through the preliminary test. Results: The motor failure time at each accelerating stress level was predicted by regression analysis with brush wear length as performance degradation data. The main failure mode, which is brush wear, of the motor was reproduced by this test. The shape parameter of the Weibull distribution was confirmed to be the same statistically at all accelerating stress levels by the likelihood ratio test. Conclusion: The life of the motor was investigated by performing the accelerated life test with the brush wear of the industrial cleaner motor as the main failure mode. Through the accelerating test method of the cleaner motor, various life expectancy and life expectancy of the acceleration factor are predicted.