• Title/Summary/Keyword: 3-month prediction

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Operational Validation of the COMS Satellite Ground Control System during the First Three Months of In-Orbit Test Operations (발사 후 3개월간의 궤도 내 시험을 통한 통신해양기상위성 관제시스템의 운용검증)

  • Lee, Byoung-Sun;Kim, In-Jun;Lee, Soo-Jeon;Hwang, Yoo-La;Jung, Won-Chan;Kim, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Hae-Yeon;Lee, Hoon-Hee;Lee, Sang-Cherl;Cho, Young-Min;Kim, Bang-Yeop
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2011
  • COMS(Chollian) satellite which was launched on June 26, 2010 has three payloads for Ka-band communications, geostationary ocean color imaging and meteorological imaging. In order to make efficient use of the geostationary satellite, a concept of mission operations has been considered from the beginning of the satellite ground control system development. COMS satellite mission operations are classified by daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal operations. Daily satellite operations include mission planning, command planning and transmission, telemetry processing and analysis, ranging and orbit determination, ephemeris and event prediction, and wheel off-loading set point parameter calculation. As a weekly operation, North-South station keeping maneuver and East-West station keeping maneuver should be performed on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Spacecraft oscillator updating parameter should be calculated and uploaded once a month. Eclipse operations should be performed during a vernal equinox and autumnal equinox season. In this paper, operational validations of the major functions in COMS SGCS are presented for the first three month of in-orbit test operations. All of the major functions have been successfully verified and the COMS SGCS will be used for the mission operations of the COMS satellite for 7 years of mission life time and even more.

Prediction of response by FDG PET early during concurrent chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer

  • Kim, Suzy;Oh, So Won;Kim, Jin Soo;Kim, Ki Hwan;Kim, Yu Kyeong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.231-237
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: To evaluate the predictive value of the early response of $^{18}F$-flurodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) during concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods: FDG PET was performed before and during CCRT for 13 NSCLC patients. Maximum standardized uptake value ($SUV_{max}$), mean standardized uptake value ($SUV_{mean}$), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were measured and the changes were calculated. These early metabolic changes were compared with the standard tumor response by computed tomograms (CT) one month after CCRT. Results: One month after the completion of CCRT, 9 patients had partial response (PR) of tumor and 4 patients had stable disease. The percent changes of $SUV_{max}$ ($%{\Delta}SUV_{max}$) were larger in responder group than in non-responder group ($55.7%{\pm}15.6%$ vs. $23.1%{\pm}19.0%$, p = 0.01). The percent changes of $SUV_{mean}$ ($%{\Delta}SUV_{mean}$) were also larger in responder group than in non-responder group ($54.4%{\pm}15.9%$ vs. $22.3%{\pm}23.0%$, p = 0.01). The percent changes of MTV ($%{\Delta}MTV$) or TLG ($%{\Delta}TLG$) had no correlation with the tumor response after treatment. All the 7 patients (100%) with $%{\Delta}SUV_{max}{\geq}50%$ had PR, but only 2 out of 6 patients (33%) with $%{\Delta}SUV_{max}$ < 50% had PR after CCRT (p = 0.009). Likewise, all the 6 patients (100%) with $%{\Delta}SUV_{mean}{\geq}50%$ had PR, but only 3 out of 7 patients (43%) with $%{\Delta}SUV_{mean}$ < 50% had PR after CCRT (p = 0.026). Conclusion: The degree of metabolic changes measured by PET-CT during CCRT was predictive for NSCLC tumor response after CCRT.

Global Patterns of Pigment Concentration, Cloud Cover, and Sun Glint: Application to the OSMI Data Collection Planning (색소농도, 운량 및 태양반사의 전구분포 : OSMI 자료수집계획에 대한 응용)

  • Yongseung Kim;Chiho Kang;Hyo-Suk Lim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 1998
  • To establish a monthly data collection planning for the Ocean Scanning Multispectral Imager (OSMI), we have examined the global patterns of three impacting factors: pigment concentration, cloud cover, and sun glint. Other than satellite mission constraints (e.g., duty cycle), these three factors are considered critical for the OSMI data collection. The Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) monthly mean products and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) monthly mean products (C2) were used for the analysis of pigment concentration and cloud cover distributions, respectively. And the monthly-simulated patterns of sun glint were produced by performing the OSMI orbit prediction and the calculation of sun glint radiances at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). Using monthly statistics (mean and/or standard deviation) of each factor in the above for a given 10$^{\circ}$ latitude by 10$^{\circ}$ longitude grid, we generated the priority map for each month. The priority maps of three factors for each month were subsequently superimposed to visualize the impact of three factors in all. The initial results illustrated that a large part of oceans in the summer hemisphere was classified into the low priority regions because of seasonal changes of clouds and sun illumination. Sensitivity tests for different sets of classifications were performed and demonstrated the seasonal effects of clouds and sun glint to be robust.

Trend Analysis and Prediction of the Number of Births and the Number of Outpatients using Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석을 통한 출생아 수와 소아치과 내원 환자 수 추세 분석 및 예측)

  • Hwayeon, An;Seonmi, Kim;Namki, Choi
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.274-284
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the number of births in Gwangju and the number of outpatients in Pediatric Dentistry at Chonnam National University Dental Hospital over the past 10 years (2010 - 2019) and predict the next year using time series analysis. The number of births showed an unstable downward trend with monthly variations, with the highest in January and the lowest in December. The average number of births in 2020 was predicted to be 682 (595 to 782, 95% CI), and the actual number of births was an average of 610. The number of outpatients was relatively stable, showing a month-to-month variation, with highest in August and the lowest in June. The average number of patients in 2020 was predicted to be 603 (505 to 701, 95% CI), and the average number of actual visits was 587. Despite the decrease in the number of births, the number of outpatients was expected to increase somewhat. Due to the special situation of COVID-19, the actual number of births and patients was to be slightly lower than the predicted values, but it was that they were within the predicted confidence interval. Time series analysis can be used as a basic tool to prepare for the low fertility era in the field of pediatric dentistry.

A Study of Relationships between the Sea Surface Temperatures and Rainfall in Korea (해수면온도와 우리나라 강우량과의 상관성 분석)

  • Moon Young-Il;Kwon Hyun-Han;Kim Dong-Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.12 s.161
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    • pp.995-1008
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    • 2005
  • In this study, the principal components of rainfall in Korea are extracted by a method which consists of the independent component analysis combined with the wavelet transform, to examine the spatial correlation between seasonal rainfalls and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The 2-8 year band retains a strong wavelet power spectrum and the low frequency characteristics are shown by the wavelet analysis. The independent component analysis is performed by using the Scale Average Wavelet Power(SAWP) that is estimated by wavelet analysis. Interannual-interdecadal variation is the dominant variation, and an increasing trend is observed in the spring and summer seasons. The relationships between principal components of rainfall in the spring/summer seasons and SSTs existed in Indian and Pacific Oceans. Particularly, the SST zones, which represent a statistically significant correlation are located in the Philippine offshore and Australia offshore. Also, the three month leading SSTs in the same region we strongly correlated with the rainfall. Hence, these results propose a promising possibility of seasonal rainfall prediction by SST predictors.

Yield and Production Forecasting of Paddy Rice at a Sub-county Scale Resolution by Using Crop Simulation and Weather Interpolation Techniques (기상자료 공간내삽과 작물 생육모의기법에 의한 전국의 읍면 단위 쌀 생산량 예측)

  • 윤진일;조경숙
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2001
  • Crop status monitoring and yield prediction at higher spatial resolution is a valuable tool in various decision making processes including agricultural policy making by the national and local governments. A prototype crop forecasting system was developed to project the size of rice crop across geographic areas nationwide, based on daily weather pattern. The system consists of crop models and the input data for 1,455 cultivation zone units (the smallest administrative unit of local government in South Korea called "Myun") making up the coterminous South Korea. CERES-rice, a rice crop growth simulation model, was tuned to have genetic characteristics pertinent to domestic cultivars. Daily maximum/minimum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation surface on 1km by 1km grid spacing were prepared by a spatial interpolation of 63 point observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration network. Spatial mean weather data were derived for each Myun and transformed to the model input format. Soil characteristics and management information at each Myun were available from the Rural Development Administration. The system was applied to the forecasting of national rice production for the recent 3 years (1997 to 1999). The model was run with the past weather data as of September 15 each year, which is about a month earlier than the actual harvest date. Simulated yields of 1,455 Myuns were grouped into 162 counties by acreage-weighted summation to enable the validation, since the official production statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is on the county basis. Forecast yields were less sensitive to the changes in annual climate than the reported yields and there was a relatively weak correlation between the forecast and the reported yields. However, the projected size of rice crop at each county, which was obtained by multiplication of the mean yield with the acreage, was close to the reported production with the $r^2$ values higher than 0.97 in all three years.

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Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Korean Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

  • Koo, Bo Kyung;Oh, Sohee;Kim, Yoon Ji;Moon, Min Kyong
    • Journal of Lipid and Atherosclerosis
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.110-121
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    • 2018
  • Objective: We developed a new equation for predicting coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in Korean diabetic patients using a hospital-based cohort and compared it with a UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Methods: By considering patients with type 2 diabetes aged ${\geq}30years$ visiting the diabetic center in Boramae hospital in 2006, we developed a multivariable equation for predicting CHD events using the Cox proportional hazard model. Those with CHD were excluded. The predictability of CHD events over 6 years was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves, which were compared using the DeLong test. Results: A total of 732 participants (304 males and 428 females; mean age, $60{\pm}10years$; mean duration of diabetes, $10{\pm}7years$) were followed up for 76 months (range, 1-99 month). During the study period, 48 patients (6.6%) experienced CHD events. The AUROC of the proposed equation for predicting 6-year CHD events was 0.721 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.641-0.800), which is significantly larger than that of the UKPDS risk engine (0.578; 95% CI, 0.482-0.675; p from DeLong test=0.001). Among the subjects with <5% of risk based on the proposed equation, 30.6% (121 out of 396) were classified as ${\geq}10%$ of risk based on the UKPDS risk engine, and their event rate was only 3.3% over 6 years. Conclusion: The UKPDS risk engine overestimated CHD risk in type 2 diabetic patients in this cohort, and the proposed equation has superior predictability for CHD risk compared to the UKPDS risk engine.

Real Estate Price Forecasting by Exploiting the Regional Analysis Based on SOM and LSTM (SOM과 LSTM을 활용한 지역기반의 부동산 가격 예측)

  • Shin, Eun Kyung;Kim, Eun Mi;Hong, Tae Ho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.147-163
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    • 2021
  • Purpose The study aims to predict real estate prices by utilizing regional characteristics. Since real estate has the characteristic of immobility, the characteristics of a region have a great influence on the price of real estate. In addition, real estate prices are closely related to economic development and are a major concern for policy makers and investors. Accurate house price forecasting is necessary to prepare for the impact of house price fluctuations. To improve the performance of our predictive models, we applied LSTM, a widely used deep learning technique for predicting time series data. Design/methodology/approach This study used time series data on real estate prices provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. For time series data preprocessing, HP filters were applied to decompose trends and SOM was used to cluster regions with similar price directions. To build a real estate price prediction model, SVR and LSTM were applied, and the prices of regions classified into similar clusters by SOM were used as input variables. Findings The clustering results showed that the region of the same cluster was geographically close, and it was possible to confirm the characteristics of being classified as the same cluster even if there was a price level and a similar industry group. As a result of predicting real estate prices in 1, 2, and 3 months, LSTM showed better predictive performance than SVR, and LSTM showed better predictive performance in long-term forecasting 3 months later than in 1-month short-term forecasting.

Circulation Trends of a Public Library during the Covid-19 Era: An Analysis of Circulation Statistics of A Public Library from 2019 to 2021 (코로나 시대의 공공도서관 대출 추이에 관한 연구 - A 공공도서관의 2019~2021 대출 통계 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Soyeon, Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.357-376
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    • 2022
  • This study examines circulation status and trends of a public library during three year periods from January 2019 to December 2021. There was a statistically significant difference in the mean number of circulation between the pre-Covid-19 period and the Covid-19 period, and the Covid-19 period and the Covid-19 recovery period. However, no significant difference was found between the pre-Covid-19 period and the Covid-19 recovery period. Across three years, there was a significant difference in the distribution of circulation per month. Circulation distribution was also significantly different among different days of the week and different hours of the day. Monthly circulation distribution and hourly circulation distribution during the pre-Covid-19 period was similar to those of the Covid-19 recovery period, whereas those of the Covid-19 period differed from the pre-Covid-19 period and the Covid-19 recovery period. It is expected that the results of this study could contribute to the collection development, and the management and improvement of services of public libraries. It is also expected that the results of this study could contribute to the prediction of circulation patterns and information needs of public library users.

Customer Behavior Prediction of Binary Classification Model Using Unstructured Information and Convolution Neural Network: The Case of Online Storefront (비정형 정보와 CNN 기법을 활용한 이진 분류 모델의 고객 행태 예측: 전자상거래 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2018
  • Deep learning is getting attention recently. The deep learning technique which had been applied in competitions of the International Conference on Image Recognition Technology(ILSVR) and AlphaGo is Convolution Neural Network(CNN). CNN is characterized in that the input image is divided into small sections to recognize the partial features and combine them to recognize as a whole. Deep learning technologies are expected to bring a lot of changes in our lives, but until now, its applications have been limited to image recognition and natural language processing. The use of deep learning techniques for business problems is still an early research stage. If their performance is proved, they can be applied to traditional business problems such as future marketing response prediction, fraud transaction detection, bankruptcy prediction, and so on. So, it is a very meaningful experiment to diagnose the possibility of solving business problems using deep learning technologies based on the case of online shopping companies which have big data, are relatively easy to identify customer behavior and has high utilization values. Especially, in online shopping companies, the competition environment is rapidly changing and becoming more intense. Therefore, analysis of customer behavior for maximizing profit is becoming more and more important for online shopping companies. In this study, we propose 'CNN model of Heterogeneous Information Integration' using CNN as a way to improve the predictive power of customer behavior in online shopping enterprises. In order to propose a model that optimizes the performance, which is a model that learns from the convolution neural network of the multi-layer perceptron structure by combining structured and unstructured information, this model uses 'heterogeneous information integration', 'unstructured information vector conversion', 'multi-layer perceptron design', and evaluate the performance of each architecture, and confirm the proposed model based on the results. In addition, the target variables for predicting customer behavior are defined as six binary classification problems: re-purchaser, churn, frequent shopper, frequent refund shopper, high amount shopper, high discount shopper. In order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model, we conducted experiments using actual data of domestic specific online shopping company. This experiment uses actual transactions, customers, and VOC data of specific online shopping company in Korea. Data extraction criteria are defined for 47,947 customers who registered at least one VOC in January 2011 (1 month). The customer profiles of these customers, as well as a total of 19 months of trading data from September 2010 to March 2012, and VOCs posted for a month are used. The experiment of this study is divided into two stages. In the first step, we evaluate three architectures that affect the performance of the proposed model and select optimal parameters. We evaluate the performance with the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model, which combines both structured and unstructured information, is superior compared to NBC(Naïve Bayes classification), SVM(Support vector machine), and ANN(Artificial neural network). Therefore, it is significant that the use of unstructured information contributes to predict customer behavior, and that CNN can be applied to solve business problems as well as image recognition and natural language processing problems. It can be confirmed through experiments that CNN is more effective in understanding and interpreting the meaning of context in text VOC data. And it is significant that the empirical research based on the actual data of the e-commerce company can extract very meaningful information from the VOC data written in the text format directly by the customer in the prediction of the customer behavior. Finally, through various experiments, it is possible to say that the proposed model provides useful information for the future research related to the parameter selection and its performance.