• Title/Summary/Keyword: 3국 모형

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An Study on Long Run Effects of Determinants on Export of Korean Goods to US (한국의 대미국 수출 결정요인의 장기적 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Mun Seong
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.409-433
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, I estimate long-run elasticities of US real GDP and real exchange rate between Korean Won and US Dollar on export of Korean goods to US and analyze changes in their trend by using VECM and rolling regression with a fixed window. For the purposes I use the year data from 1990 to 2013 which are selected from UNCTAD, Korea Trade Association(KTA), and Bank of Korea(BOK). The results are that the long-run elasticities of US real GDP vary from 2.849 to 2.938 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. The elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US Dollar vary from 0.962 to 0.967 for the same period depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. In case of the results through the OLS and the rolling regression, the long-run elasticities of US. real GDP are 3.015 for Basic Model, 2.949 for the modified Model 1, and 2.125 for the modified Model 2 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models and all of them are significant statistically. The average of long-run elasticities of real US GDP before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008. On the other hand, the long-run elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US $ are 0.347 for Basic Model, 0.566 for the modified Model 1, and -0.217 for the modified Model 2 for the same period and all of them are significant statistically except for the modified Model 2. The average of long-run elasticities of real exchange rate before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008.

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Re-Analysis of Clark Model Based on Drainage Structure of Basin (배수구조를 기반으로 한 Clark 모형의 재해석)

  • Park, Sang Hyun;Kim, Joo Cheol;Jeong, Dong Kug;Jung, Kwan Sue
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2255-2265
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    • 2013
  • This study presents the width function-based Clark model. To this end, rescaled width function with distinction between hillslope and channel velocity is used as time-area curve and then it is routed through linear storage within the framework of not finite difference scheme used in original Clark model but analytical expression of linear storage routing. There are three parameters focused in this study: storage coefficient, hillslope velocity and channel velocity. SCE-UA, one of the popular global optimization methods, is applied to estimate them. The shapes of resulting IUHs from this study are evaluated in terms of the three statistical moments of hydrologic response functions: mean, variance and the third moment about the center of IUH. The correlation coefficients to the three statistical moments simulated in this study against these of observed hydrographs were estimated at 0.995 for the mean, 0.993 for the variance and 0.983 for the third moment about the center of IUH. The shape of resulting IUHs from this study give rise to satisfactory simulation results in terms of the mean and variance. But the third moment about the center of IUH tend to be overestimated. Clark model proposed in this study is superior to the one only taking into account mean and variance of IUH with respect to skewness, peak discharge and peak time of runoff hydrograph. From this result it is confirmed that the method suggested in this study is useful tool to reflect the heterogeneity of drainage path and hydrodynamic parameters. The variation of statistical moments of IUH are mainly influenced by storage coefficient and in turn the effect of channel velocity is greater than the one of hillslope velocity. Therefore storage coefficient and channel velocity are the crucial factors in shaping the form of IUH and should be considered carefully to apply Clark model proposed in this study.

The Economic Impact of the Establishment of the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area and Impact on the Communication Industry -Base on GTAP Model Analysis- (한중일 자유무역지대 설립의 경제적 영향과 통신 산업에 대한 영향 -GTAP 모형 분석을 바탕으로-)

  • Zang, Zhen
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, the world's free trade system has been severely damaged by a series of protectionist measures in the United States and anti-globalization practices such as Brexit. Against this background, RCEP, the world's largest trade agreement, was officially signed on November 15, 2021. The RCEP provided a good working basis for the establishment of a Korea, China, and Japan free trade zone. First, this paper describes the current status of Korea-China-Japan trade cooperation and the current status of the trilateral telecommunication industry. Second, this paper simulates the changes in the overall economy of China, Japan, and Korea when tariffs are reduced to 0%, 5%, and 10%, respectively, after the establishment of a free trade zone using the 8th edition GTAP database. Then, using the simulated data changes and using the 2019 data as a benchmark, we calculated the changes in the RCA index for the three countries' telecommunications industries for the three tax rates. In the end, it is concluded that the economies of the three countries will grow to different levels in many ways when the Korea, China, and Japan free trade zone is established. Japan's telecommunications industry will not be significantly affected, Korea will grow significantly with higher tax rates and China will grow significantly with lower tax rates.

Comparison on Patterns of Conflicts in the South China Sea and the East China Sea through Analysis on Mechanism of Chinese Gray Zone Strategy (중국의 회색지대전략 메커니즘 분석을 통한 남중국해 및 동중국해 분쟁 양상 비교: 시계열 데이터에 근거한 경험적 연구를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Yongsu
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.273-310
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    • 2020
  • This study aims at empirically analyzing the overall mechanism of the "Gray Zone Strategy", which has begun to be used as one of Chinese major maritime security strategies in maritime conflicts surrounding the South China Sea and East China Sea since early 2010, and comparing the resulting conflict patterns in those reg ions. To this end, I made the following two hypotheses about Chinese gray zone strategy. The hypotheses that I have argued in this study are the first, "The marine gray zone strategy used by China shows different structures of implementation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, which are major conflict areas.", the second, "Therefore, the patterns of disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea also show a difference." In order to examine this, I will classify Chinese gray zone strategy mechanisms multi-dimensionally in large order, 1) conflict trends and frequency of strategy execution, 2) types and strengths of strategy, 3) actors of strategy execution, and 4) response methods of counterparts. So, I tried to collect data related to this based on quantitative modeling to test these. After that, about 10 years of data pertaining to this topic were processed, and a research model was designed with a new categorization and operational definition of gray zone strategies. Based on this, I was able to successfully test all the hypotheses by successfully comparing the comprehensive mechanisms of the gray zone strategy used by China and the conflict patterns between the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In the conclusion, the verified results were rementioned with emphasizing the need to overcome the security vulnerabilities in East Asia that could be caused by China's marine gray zone strategy. This study, which has never been attempted so far, is of great significance in that it clarified the intrinsic structure in which China's gray zone strategy was implemented using empirical case studies, and the correlation between this and maritime conflict patterns was investigated.

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Three-dimensional Inversion of Resistivity Data (전기비저항 탐사자료의 3차원 역산)

  • Yi Myeong-Jong;Kim Jung-Ho;Cho Seong-Jun;Chung Seung-Hwan;Song Yoonho
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 1999
  • The interpretation of resistivity data has, so far, mainly been made under the assumption that the earth is of relatively simple structure and then using one or two-dimensional inversion scheme. Since real earth structure and topography are fully three-dimensional and very complicated In nature, however, such assumptions often lead to misinterpretation of the earth structures. In such situations, three-dimensional inversion is probably the only way to get correct image of the earth. In this study, we have developed a three-dimensional inversion code using the finite element solution for the forward problem. The forward modeling algorithm simulates the real field situation with irregular topography. The inverse problem is solved iteratively using the least-squares method with smoothness constraint. Our inversion scheme employs ACB (Active Constraint Balancing) to enhance the resolving power of the inversion. Including Irregular surface topography in the inversion, we can accurately define the earth structures without artifact in the numerical tests. We could get reasonable image of earth structure by Inverting the real field data sets taken over highway bridge construction site.

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Development of 3D Dynamic Numerical Simulation Method on a Soil-Pile System (지반-말뚝 시스템에 대한 3차원 동적 수치 모델링 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Seong-Hwan;Na, Seon-Hong;Han, Jin-Tae;Kim, Sung-Ryul;Sun, Chang-Guk;Kim, Myoung-Mo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2011
  • The dynamic behavior of piles becomes very complex due to soil-pile dynamic interaction, soil non-linearity, resonance phenomena of soil-pile system and so on. Therefore, the proper numerical simulation of the pile behavior needs much effort and calculation time. In this research, a new modeling method, which can be applied to the conventional finite difference analysis program FLAC 3D, was developed to reduce the calculation time. The soil domain in this method is divided into a near-field region and a far-field region, which is not influenced by the soil-pile dynamic interaction. Then, the ground motion of the far-field is applied to the boundaries of the near-field instead of modeling the far-field region as finite meshes. In addition, the soil non-linearity behavior is modeled by using the hysteretic damping model, which determines the soil tangent modulus as a function of shear strain and the interface element was applied to simulate the separation and slip between the soil and pile. The proposed method reduced the calculation time by as much as one third compared with a usual modeling method and maintained the accuracy of the calculated results. The calculated results by the proposed method showed a good agreement with the prototype pile behavior, which was obtained by applying a similitude law to the 1-g shaking table test results.

Comparative Analysis of Internet-based Business Strategy of Leading Companies in Korea, U.S., and Japan (한.미.일 3국 기업들의 인터넷 활용전략 비교분석)

  • 강현석;서영호;채영일
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.7-20
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    • 2000
  • Many organizations have developed their own information systems not only for internal efficiency but also for effectiveness of external customer services. The infusion of powerful information networks into business environments is beginning to have a profound impact on the nature of governance between buyers and sellers in the market place. One of the most effective service tools for their customers is the use of information technology. The web technology is rapidly becoming one of the most effective online customer service tools toward strategic competitive advantage. In order to gain competitive edge, organizations must have effective web sites for customer services. A study on web service development phase has been conducted and present states of web usages by Korean, US., Japanese companies are surveyed. Cases of business web sites are empirically analyzed in order to compare the different levels of web site application in three countries. Conclusively, countries with longer experience with internet has more advanced level of web application such as business transaction and internet process innovation. In order to support effective web site planning, organizations have to understand their current position in Internet application and form strategies for e-business.

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An Expressway Path Travel Time Estimation Using Hi-pass DSRC Off-Line Travel Data (하이패스 DSRC 자료를 활용한 고속도로 오프라인 경로통행시간 추정기법 개발)

  • Shim, Sangwoo;Choi, Keechoo;Lee, Sangsoo;NamKoong, Seong J.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2013
  • Korea Expressway Corporation has been utilizing vehicles equipped with dedicated short range communication (DSRC) based on-board equipment (OBE) for collecting path travel times. A path based method (PBM) estimates the path travel time using probe vehicles traveling whole links on the path, so it is not always possible to obtain sufficient samples for calculating path travel time in the DSRC system. Having this problem in utilizing DSRC for travel time information, this study attempted to estimate path travel time with the help of a link based method (LBM) and examined whether the LBM can be used for obtaining reliable path travel times. Some comparisons were made and identified that the MAPE difference between the LBM and the PBM estimates are less than 3%, signaling that LBM can be used as a proxy for PBM in case of sparse sample conditions. Some limitations and a future research agenda have also been proposed.

University Library Service Improvement Using the Double Diamond Model (서비스디자인방법론을 활용한 대학도서관 서비스 개선방안 연구)

  • Noh, Kyungkuk;Lee, ByeongKi
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.195-216
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the author applied the service design methodology to the university library to maximize the service value provided by the university library. To this end, the 'Double Diamond Model', a service design model, was applied to the university library, and service design tools such as Persona, Customer Journey Map, and Touch Points were utilized. To reflect on the service design in the university library, the author first reviewed the literature related to the subject and researched the previous studies. Then, the issue was discovered by questionnaire surveys, interviews with users and librarians, and field investigations. Based on this, Persona and situation scenarios were derived. In addition, after synthesizing Persona's situational behavior and user's emotional change, the study visualized the Customer Journey Map and suggested service improvement plans for 11 items in 3 areas. This study is focused on the process of deriving service improvement plans rather than improving a specific service. The purpose of this study was to improve university library service and to suggest new service plans. The significance of this study is that the practical service improvement plans were applied to the university library.

An Analysis on the Asymmetric Time Varying Spillover Effect between Capesize and Panamax Markets (케이프사이즈와 파나막스 시장간의 비대칭 시간가변 파급효과에 관한 분석)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.41-64
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    • 2011
  • This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns using fractionally integrated error correction term and volatilities using constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation GARCH with asymmetries between Capesize and Panamax markets. Our findings are as follows. First, for the fractionally cointegrated error correction model, there is a unidirectional relationship in returns from the Panamax market to the Capesize market, but a bidirectional causal relationship prevails for the traditional error correction models. Second, the coefficients for the error correction term are all statistically significant. Of particular interest are the signs of the estimates for the error correction term, which are all negative for the Capesize return equation and all positive for the Panamax return. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets and the direction of the information flow seems to be stronger from Panamax to Capesize. Fourth, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significantly positive in the Capesize market, but the Panamax market does not have a significant effect. However, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significant, implying that the leverage effect does exist in the Capesize and Panamax markets.