• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권5호
• /
• pp.9-18
• /
• 2020

The research paper examines the influence of elections on the stock market. The study analyses whether the market reaction would be the same when a party wins and comes to power for the second consecutive time. The study employs Market Model Event study methodology. The sample period taken for the study is 2014 to 2019. A sample of 31 companies listed in Bombay Stock Exchange is selected at random for the purpose of the study. For the elections held in 2014, an event window of 82 days was taken with 39 days prior to the event and 42 days post event. The event (t0) being the declaration of the election results. For the elections held in 2019 an event window of 83 days was taken with 41 days prior to the event and 41 days post event. The results indicate that the market reacts positively with significantly positive Average Abnormal Returns. The findings of the study reveal that the impact on the market is not the same between any two elections even when the same party comes to power for the second time. The semi-strong form of efficient market hypothesis holds true in the context of emerging markets like India.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.77-106
• /
• 2023

The DPP's victory over the KMT in Taiwan's 2020 elections has been interpreted as a triumph for anti-China sentiment. However, the rise of political outsiders and their influence on voting behavior in this election were overlooked and underestimated. In this article, we examined different sources of data and found that supporters of these political outsiders mentioned sovereignty and cross-Strait issues less than the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen. However, when faced with the choice between Tsai and challenger Han Kuo-yu, voters who were concerned about governance chose Tsai, contributing to her winning a record number of votes. This article suggests that economic and governance issues had a considerable role in the election's result and will probably be the main focus of the 2024 presidential election. With the potential for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait increasing, anti-China sentiment is unlikely to be the deciding factor this time around.

• 의정연구
• /
• 제27권3호
• /
• pp.155-188
• /
• 2021

이 연구는 선거보도의 역동성을 탐구한다. 선거 시기 매체가 언제 어떠한 기사를 생산하는가는 언론의 기사 생산을 이해하기 위해 중요할 뿐만 아니라 유권자들의 정치 행태를 파악하기 위해서도 중요하다. 선거보도는 매체와 후보자 및 정당의 전략이 복합적으로 작용하는 대상이다. 매체는 때로는 정책에 집중하여 기사를 생산하기도 하고 경쟁과 전략에 초점을 두고 선거를 보도하기도 한다. 이 논문은 매체의 보도 행태가 역동적이라고 주장한다. 예를 들어, 선거 기간 중 시간에 따라 정책기사량은 감소하며, 전략기사는 증가하는 양상을 보일 것이다. 더 나아가, 정책기사 비중은 방송과 신문 매체에서 서로 다른 양상을 보일 것이다. 이 주장들을 검증하기 위해 이 연구는 2020년 국회의원선거 시기 선거기사를 정책과 전략기사로 구분한 후 일별 시계열 자료를 구축하여 분석한다. 이 논문의 구조적 분절 분석 결과와 시계열분석 결과들은 이 연구의 주장을 부분적으로 뒷받침한다.

• 산경연구논집
• /
• 제12권12호
• /
• pp.25-33
• /
• 2021

Purpose: This paper estimates the impact of the epidemic crisis on election outcomes through investigating the effect of Covid19 crisis on election results of 21st General Election held in April 15th 2020 in Korea. Research design, data and methodology: This study employs Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method using district-level data from Seoul and Gyeonggi province available at National election data in Korea. Results: Despite the current crisis in Korea, Covid-19 has had positive effects on voter turnout on average, after controlling for other factors. On the other hand, the effect of Covid-19 on the voter turnout was negative in districts with a larger aging population and higher health insurance premiums. In addition, Covid-19 negatively impacted vote shares for the incumbent party, while its rival party saw gains in their votes. Conclusion: The effect of Covid-19 election outcomes in Korea is distinct from other countries due to the nationwide acknowledgment of the Korean government's achievement in managing the epidemic. This implies that the crisis management ability of a government is crucial in gaining support for an incumbent party in future elections. Countries facing upcoming elections need to implement acceptable Covid-19 restriction policies as well as economic support for compensation to reap similar benefits.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.67-104
• /
• 2020

Fake news and disinformation provoked heated arguments during Taiwan's 2018 local election. Most significantly, concerns grew that Beijing was attempting to sway the island's politics armed with a new "Russian-style influence campaign" weapon (Horton, 2018). To investigate the speculated effects of the "onslaught of misinformation," an online survey with 1068 randomly selected voters was conducted immediately after the election. Findings confirmed that false news affected Taiwanese voters' judgment of the news and their voting decisions. More than 50% of the voters cast their votes without knowing the correct campaign news. In particular, politically neutral voters, who were the least able to discern fake news, tended to vote for the China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) candidates. Demographic analysis further revealed that female voters tended to be more likely to believe fake news during the election period compared to male voters. Younger or lower-income voters had the lowest levels of discernment of fake news. Further analyses and the implications of these findings for international societies are deliberated in the conclusion.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
• /
• 제19권1호
• /
• pp.59-83
• /
• 2020

This paper examines the actions and the factors driving those actions to reduce energy consumption and enhance energy efficiency taken by United States cities. While not much empirical evidence is available on why governments pursue practical sustainability actions, we attempt to shed more light on this important topic by empirically identifying factors that contribute to concrete actions toward sustainability policies. We adopt political market theory as a basic theoretical framework with policy-making applied to city energy consumption. Using the 2010 ICMA (local government sustainability policies and program) data, this study expands the focus of analyses to evaluate the effect of the form of government on energy consumption and energy efficiency by using multiple regression analysis. The findings show that at the city level, the mayor-council form of government are negatively associated with governments' efforts to reduce energy consumption. However, cities with at-large elections and municipal ownership are more likely to adopt sustainability actions. We also find that a large-scale economy has significant effects on the effort to reduce city energy consumption and improve energy efficiency. This shows that environmental policies are directly connected to locally relevant affairs, including housing, energy use, green transportation, and water. Thus, local level administrators could take an executive role to protect the environment, encourage the development of alternative energy, and reduce the use of fossil fuel and coal energy. These efforts can lead to important environmental ramifications and relevant actions by municipal governments.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
• /
• 제23권2호
• /
• pp.301-316
• /
• 2020

Algorithm journalism refers to the practices of automated news generation using algorithms that generate human sounding narratives. Algorithm journalism is known to have strengths in automating repetitive tasks through rapid and accurate analysis of data, and has been actively used in news domains such as sports and finance. In this paper, we propose an interactive card news system that generates personalized local election articles in 2018. The system consists of modules that collects and analyzes election data, generates texts and images, and allows users to specify their interests in the local elections. When a user selects interested regions, election types, candidate names, and political parties, the system generates card news according to their interest. In the study, we examined how personalized card news are evaluated in comparison with text and card news articles by human journalists, and derived implications on the potential use of algorithm in reporting political events.

• 문화기술의 융합
• /
• 제6권1호
• /
• pp.111-120
• /
• 2020

본 연구는 소셜네트워크서비스(SNS)상의 빅데이터를 이용한 텍스트 분석기법의 응용으로서 설문 조사 기반의 여론 조사 방법론과 달리 비정형적 언어 기반의 감성 여론 조사 방법론을 제안한다. 기존의 설문 기반 여론 분석모형에 대한 대안적 방법으로 주관성에 기초한 감성 분류 모형을 이용하였다. 이를 위하여, 제20대 국회의원 선거운동 기간 중 선거 관련 실시간 트위터 자료를 수집하여 속성 기반 감성 분석을 이용한 여론의 극성과 강도에 대한 실증 분석을 수행하였다. 개별 SNS에서 사용된 단어의 극성을 분류하기 위해 Lasso 및 Ridge 회귀 모형을 이용하여 극성에 영향력이 큰 변수를 추출하였다. 추출된 변수가 극성에 미치는 긍정 및 부정에 대한 영향을 구분하고, 영향력의 강도를 분석하였다. 대중들이 소셜네트워크상에서 표현한 내용을 바탕으로 한 여론에 대한 긍정 및 부정의 감성 분석을 통해 여론의 향방을 예측하고 극성분석 모형의 정확도를 측정하여, 여론 조사 분야에서 감성 분석 방법론의 적용가능성을 확인하였다.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
• /
• 제22권5호
• /
• pp.294-302
• /
• 2022

Detection of fake news is a complex and a challenging task. Generation of fake news is very hard to stop, only steps to control its circulation may help in minimizing its impacts. Humans tend to believe in misleading false information. Researcher started with social media sites to categorize in terms of real or fake news. False information misleads any individual or an organization that may cause of big failure and any financial loss. Automatic system for detection of false information circulating on social media is an emerging area of research. It is gaining attention of both industry and academia since US presidential elections 2016. Fake news has negative and severe effects on individuals and organizations elongating its hostile effects on the society. Prediction of fake news in timely manner is important. This research focuses on detection of fake news spreaders. In this context, overall, 6 models are developed during this research, trained and tested with dataset of PAN 2020. Four approaches N-gram based; user statistics-based models are trained with different values of hyper parameters. Extensive grid search with cross validation is applied in each machine learning model. In N-gram based models, out of numerous machine learning models this research focused on better results yielding algorithms, assessed by deep reading of state-of-the-art related work in the field. For better accuracy, author aimed at developing models using Random Forest, Logistic Regression, SVM, and XGBoost. All four machine learning algorithms were trained with cross validated grid search hyper parameters. Advantages of this research over previous work is user statistics-based model and then ensemble learning model. Which were designed in a way to help classifying Twitter users as fake news spreader or not with highest reliability. User statistical model used 17 features, on the basis of which it categorized a Twitter user as malicious. New dataset based on predictions of machine learning models was constructed. And then Three techniques of simple mean, logistic regression and random forest in combination with ensemble model is applied. Logistic regression combined in ensemble model gave best training and testing results, achieving an accuracy of 72%.

• 의정연구
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.113-140
• /
• 2020

이 연구는 공간적 자기상관성(spatial autocorrelation)이라는 개념을 사용해 한국 선거를 처음으로 분석했다는 점에서 의미가 있다. 공간적 자기상관성이란, 공간상의 한 위치에서 발생하는 사건은 그 주변 지역에서 발생하는 사건과는 상관관계가 높다는 것을 의미한다. 제21대 총선 서울지역의 투표율을 관내 사전투표율과 본투표율로 나누고 투표율의 공간적 패턴이 나타나는지 살펴보았다. 기존의 연구가 선거구 단위를 토대로 분석한 것이 대부분이고 개인자료를 사용한 것이라면 이 연구에서는 좀 더 하위 단위인 읍면동 단위를 기준으로 분석했고 공간자료와 집합자료를 사용해 분석하였다. 본투표율의 모란 I (Moran's I) 지수는 0.261로 꽤 높은 공간적 자기상관성을 보인 반면 관내사전투표율의 지수는 0.095로 낮아 통계적 유의성이 있음에도 불구하고 공간적 자기상관성이 거의 없는 것으로 나타났다. 공간적 자기상관성이 강하게 나타난 본투표율을 OLS 회귀모델과 공간통계모델로 비교해 분석해보았다. 일반 회귀모델에서 결정계수인 R²가 0.585261에서, 공간오차모델에서는 0.656631로 상승하여 약 7퍼센트포인트의 설명력 증가를 볼 수 있어 공간통계모델이 설명력이 높다는 사실을 알 수 있었다. 가장 흥미로운 결과는 관내사전투표율과 본투표율의 관계인데, 관내사전투표율이 높은 동은 본투표율이 낮게 나오고, 관내사전투표율이 2% 정도 올라가면 본투표율은 약 1% 정도 떨어지는 것으로 조사되었다. 이 연구에서는 관내사전투표율과 본투표율에 영향을 미치는 변수는 매우 다르고, 관내사전투표율의 상승폭이 본투표율 하락폭과 다르다는 점에서 투표편의제공에 따른 분산효과로만 볼 수 없다는 것을 알 수 있어 기존 연구와 차별성을 가진다.