• KDI북한경제리뷰
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• v.21 no.11
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• pp.46-56
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• 2019

2018년 싱가포르에서 북미 정상회담이라는 역사적인 이벤트가 성사되었다. 2019년 1월 1일, 김정은 북한 국무위원장이 "미국 대통령과 언제든 또다시 마주 앉을 용의가 있다"는 신년사를 발표했고 트럼프 대통령이 이에 화답하며 이후 양측 간 실무 협상이 이뤄졌다. 그 결과 2월 말, 양국 정상은 베트남 하노이 2차 정상회담에서 마주할 수 있었다. 그러나 회담은 별다른 성과 없이 결렬됐다. 6월에는 갑작스러운 남-북-미 DMZ 회동이 이뤄졌으나 북한이 갑작스레 수차례 미사일 도발을 감행하며 북미 관계는 다시 교착 상태에 빠지게 됐다. 이후 10월에는 북한 비핵화 협상을 위한 북미 양측의 실무접촉이 스웨덴 스톡홀름에서 진행됐지만 이 또한 뚜렷한 성과를 도출하지 못했다. 양측 모두 현재까지 제3차 북미 정상회담에 대한 가능성은 열어놓은 상태다. 본 경제자료에서는 2019년 북미관계 주요 내용을 정리하고자 한다. 첫 번째 장에서는 하노이 제2차 북미정상회담의 과정과 내용을 정리한다. 두 번째 장에서는 하노이 회담 이후 북미 관계를 살펴보고 남북미 정상 판문점 회동의 과정을 정리해 본다. 세 번째 장에서는 스톡홀름 북미 실무협상 전 북한의 미사일 발사와 함께 실무협상 전개의 주요사항을 정리한다. 본 자료는 다양한 언론 보도를 근거로 재구성하여 제공한다

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.87-92
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• 2018

This paper aims to investigate political stances of news producers or news organizations by analyzing editorials from two Korean newspapers, Chosun Ilbo and the Hankyoreh, which are totally different in ideology, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, the headlines from 16 editorials and 14 editorials from the two newspapers respectively published from May 28 to June 27 were analyzed in terms of political stances to a U.S-North Korea Summit. Moreover, two editorials published right after the U.S-North Summit were quantitatively analyzed within Martin and White (2005)'s framework. As a result, it was found that Chosun ilbo showed a negative stance to the summit by employing the 'feeling' factor within an attitude component most frequently, whereas the Hankyoreh was overwhelmingly positive toward the issue and the dialogue expansion factor within an engagement component is most frequently used to deliver its positive stance toward the issue.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.101-110
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• 2020

Since the third inter-Korean summit, the inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang and the U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore and Hanoi, denuclearization negotiations are under way that will determine the fate of the Korean Peninsula. However, the negotiations are stalled and some skepticism is expected due to the conflicting U.S.-North Korea stance over the terms of denuclearization. The reason why it is difficult to realize the complete denuclearization of North Korea is that there are a variety of variables such as the traditional security dilemma in Northeast Asia, the hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China, and the formation of a new cold-war system. At a turning point when three inter-Korean summits and three U.S.-North Korea summits were held in the wake of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics, North Korea's complete denuclearization has become a must-do historical task for Northeast Asia and world peace beyond the Korean Peninsula. In this sense, the inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang is seen as a historic occasion for presenting a new milestone for the denuclearization of North Korea and the development of inter-Korean relations through the 9.19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration and the Military Agreement. Meanwhile, Constructivism, which has become the main paradigm of international political theory, presents the view that ideological variables such as ideology, history and culture define material factors, identity and interests of state actors, and that the structure of international relations can be changed through interaction. In this study, the historical meaning of the 9.19 Pyongyang Declaration, which is now past its first anniversary, was considered from a constructivist perspective. To this end, the development process of constructivism theory and analysis model and the development process of inter-Korean relations were briefly reviewed, and the military implications of the 9.19 Military Agreement were presented.

• Strategy21
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• s.43
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• pp.273-302
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• 2018

1980년대 북 핵개발을 처음 발견 이후, 미국은 북한의 비핵화라는 정책목적달성을 위해 다양한 정책을 사용해 왔지만 현재까지 실패하였다. 미국의 대북 정책 실패의 결과는 북핵 문제의 고착화 속에서, 평양의 핵무기 개발 가속화 야기로 한반도 및 미국을 핵위협 속에 놓이게 하였다. 특히, 지난 해, 북미간의 가열된 공격적 수사와 행동에 의한 한반도 위기설은 절정에 달하였다. 해결의 실마리가 보이지 않던 한반도의 갈등 및 위기는, 지난 4월에 열린 남북 정상회담을 통해 25년간의 핵위협의 굴레를 벗어날 기회를 다시 한번 맞이하게 되었다. 남북 정상회담 이후 이어질 북미 정상회담 등 향후 미국의 정책은 한반도 비핵화를 위한 중요한 분수령에 다시 한번 서있다. 하지만, 과거의 25년간의 역사는 다시 맞이한 '한반도의 봄'에 대한 낙관적 희망만을 주지 않는다. 과거, 양자적, 다자적 협상을 이룸에도 불구하고, 북핵 문제는 다시 위기에 접어드는 반복된 패턴과 사이클 속에 악화 되어 왔기 때문이다. 비핵화의 분수령에 있는 미 정부는 다시 한번 과거의 정책을 뒤돌아 보고, 남북 정상회담을 통해 어렵게 맞이한 기회를 결실로 이룰 수 있도록 어느 때 보다 신중한 노력이 필요하다. 최근 몇 달간 북핵 문제는 경이로운 속도로 진전을 보였지만, 한순간의 정책의 실패는 최근 보여진 진전의 속도 이상의 속도로 문제를 악화 시킬 수 있으며, 그 결과는 작년 여름과 겨울의 위기보다 더욱 심각 할 수 있음을 명심해야 한다. 이러한 점에서 이 보고서는 과거의 역사 및 이론적 분석을 통해 과거 미국의 북핵정책 실패 원인을 분석하고 정책을 제언하는데 그 목적이 있다. 과거 미 북핵 실패의 원인은 크게 3가지로 보인다. 먼저, 포괄적인 그리고 북한 정권의 특성에서 비롯된 북핵 개발의 모티브를 정확히 이해하는데 실패하여, 북한의 정책적 계산을 변화 시키는데 실패 하였다. 둘째, 북한 문제를 둘러싼 외부적 복잡성이 미북핵 정책실패를 야기하였다. 한반도 문제는 과거부터 다양한 국가들의 이해관계에 둘러 싸여 왔다. 북핵 문제도 남북 및 미국을 비롯 중국 등 주변국의 복잡성이 불확실성을 가중시켜 문제를 더욱 복잡하게 하였으며, 미국의 대북 협상의 영향력을 약화 시켰다. 셋째, 과거 누적된 두 국가간의 불신은 협상 이후 상대의 신뢰 있는 이행에 대한 불신을 야기하여 미국의 정책의 효과성을 저해하였다. 미국은 북핵 개발 모티브에 대한 포괄적 이해와 한국 및 중국과의 다자외교로 과거의 실패를 극복하고 25년간의 북핵문제의 고리를 끊어야 할 것이다.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.113-122
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• 2018

The issue of security on the Korean peninsula is facing the greatest upheaval in 2018 with the inter-Korean summit and the US-North Korea summit. North Korea has pursued the parallel policy developing military and economic at the same time. However, North Korea is changing its route to give up nuclear weapons and focus on the economy through summit talks. Since the change in North Korea is similar to that of Libya in the past, it is necessary to analyze why North Korea is trying to abandon its nuclear program and how the process is flowing compared to the case of Libya. The Libya model was constructed and analyzed in terms of international and domestic perpectives and recognition of the situation by leadership. North Korea's nuclear policy was evaluated based on the Libya model. The nuclear development of Libya and North Korea has caused diplomatic and economic pressures from the international community and ultimately led to instability of the regime. Two countries have tried to abandon nuclear program in order to solve the instability of the regime, also gain the economic reward insead. Libya took economic benefits and secured some of the stability of the regime, but the regime collapsed under the wave of democracy due to the influx of foreign capital and ideas. North Korea will seek diplomatic and economic gains with the example of Libya, but will try to limit as much as possible the culture of democracy and the full opening that can be incidental.

• Korea and Global Affairs
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.87-130
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• 2019

This paper aims to analyze the recent progress(current situation) and tasks of arms control in North and South Korea. To this end the paper is composed of 5 chapters titled instruction; recent progress(current situation) of arms control in South and North Korea; constraints and tasks of arms control on the Korean peninsula; and conclusion. One of the most important tasks for the establishment of a peace structure for the coexistence of the Korean people in the 21st century is the realization of military control in order to resolve the acute military confrontation situation and mutual threats. With the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics, the North-South summit and the subsequent talks for peace and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, the North Korea-US summit, and subsequent talks are creating conditions for trust building and arms control between the two Koreas. The military trust between the two Koreas and operational arms control are being achieved through the declaration of the April 27 Panmunjom and the 'Military Agreement for the Implementation of the Panmunjom Declaration.' However, since there are constraints on the control of arms control, such as the persistence of hostility and distrust of the two Koreas, the defense treaty between the two Koreas and neighboring countries, the competition of neighboring countries and the complex interests of the Korean peninsula, Trust Building is important. We should resolve the issue of arms control between the two Koreas, taking into account the trend of international arms control over the internal and external dynamics of the Korean peninsula gradually and carefully, with a vision of long-term unification security.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.39-66
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• 2018

This paper analyzes the structures and issues of 2018 Korean local elections based on the author's observations on the electoral processes. Even if this paper does not follow a traditional statistical method, it provides the interpretative meanings of 2018 local elections by utilizing an expert's observations of campaign processes. This result of 2018 election can be summarized into two analytical frames. In terms of electoral competition structure, three key factors, such as presidential approval rating, party competition structure, ideological spectrum, tend to affect the winning of governing party. In the light of election issue, the inter-Korean summit, the Washington-Pyeongyang summit, Incheon deprecating remark were positive to the vote gains of governing party, but the negative campaign, the drucking scandal and the swing voters were found not to be significant. The local election in Korea tends to show dual meanings, a proxy war of national-level politics and a composition process of local government. This paper found that the 2018 election has dual meanings at the same time, in a sense that it is the punishment of the ex-governing party's wrongdoing and the power change of local government.

• Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.135-160
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• 2018

This study aims to predict the likely effect of economic sanctions on North Korea by examining case studies of Iran and Iraq. While UN sanctions against Iraq had immediate negative consequences for society, such as causing famine and reinforcing the authoritarian regime, sanctions against Iran had some productive consequences after they were reinforced by the U.S. and EU in significantly reduced oil exports and government expenditure, which in turn led to regime change and willingness to negotiate nuclear programs for economic recovery. Apart from these distinct differences, sanctions in both countries caused high inflation, shortage of necessary supplies, and increased unemployment. Case studies of Iran and Iraq also reveal that the sanctions disproportionately affected women and children, which implies that the recently reinforced economic sanctions of the U.S. and China against North Korea will cause more suffering of similarly socially marginalized groups in North Korea.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.10
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• pp.101-113
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• 2018

This study aims to elucidate the major issues and problems of the North Korean woman defectors focusing on the Community settlement system of Korean society in the time of the historical change of the rapidly changing inter - Korean relations starting from the recent summit talks between North and South Korea. Analytical methods were conducted using literature and previous research data. The results of this study are summarized as follows. The necessity of legal and institutional support reflecting the characteristics of life of North Korean woman defectors and experience of defecting, the necessity of development and management of employment education and employment support program for stable settlement support, the necessity of an integrated support system of public - private cooperation governance structure The need for a tailored social adaptation program tailored to individual needs arises. The results of this study are important to suggest the direction of improvement of the actual system through studying the policy and system of the settlement of Korean society in advance of the unification era. In future research, the support system for the settlement of the South Korean society A variety of studies to identify the factors for role formation will be needed.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.20-37
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• 2019

Three Inter-Korea summits and a North Korea-USA summit that were previously unexpected provide a basis for an optimistic outlook for the future development of Korean archaeology. While Korean archaeology has witnessed a great advance since the mid-20th century, it also exhibits significant weaknesses in explaining cultural changes in prehistory and the early historical period in the Korean Peninsula due to the paucity of information on archaeological evidence of North Korea. Recent development of favorable conditions for research and excavations of North Korean cultural heritage could be a valuable opportunity for Korean archaeology to overcome the current adversity. Especially, given the expected large-scale SOC industrial project in North Korea, we need to prepare for the systematic research and excavation of archaeological materials. The present essay attempts to provide a suggestion for the joint archaeological expeditions to excavate and manage cultural resources in North Korea based on a critical review of previous salvage excavations in South Korea, such as those conducted before the construction of the Korean rapid transit railway system (KTX). We suggest that professional archaeologists should be included in the project and oversee the planning and design of road and railway constructions and other SOC projects in order to minimize the cost of trial and error processes that were well exemplified by the KTX salvage excavations. The Korean Archaeological Society and North Korean Archaeological Society may organize a common association that will supervise joint archaeological expeditions. Importantly, The Korean Archaeological Society and other related institutions should prepare to build an organization that conducts impending archaeological excavation in North Korea. While we likely face challenges and difficulties during the various stages of archaeological research and excavations in North Korea, only through thorough and systematic preparation can we avoid the destruction of valuable cultural heritage and find an opportunity for the further development of Korean archaeology.