• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2013.07a
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• pp.275-278
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• 2013

영화의 흥행 요소를 파악하여 영화의 흥행 여부를 예측하는 것은 영화의 수익성 부분에서 아주 중요하다. 영화 시장이 과거와는 다르게 증가함에 따라, 다양한 영화 흥행에 관한 예측 연구들이 개발되었다. 본 논문에서는 영화 흥행 요소들을 수집하고 다중회귀 분석을 통해서 유의수준을 만족하는 흥행 요소들을 선택한다. 그 후, 이러한 요소들을 예측 방법들의 입력값으로 사용하여 영화 흥행을 예측한다. 성능을 비교하기 위해 본 논문에서 제안한 방법과 현재 개발된 영화 흥행 예측 방법(다중회귀, 의사결정트리, 인공신경망)들을 정확도와 평균제곱근오차를 통해 예측 모형의 성능을 비교한다. 그 결과, 다중 회귀 분석을 통해 유의한 흥행요소들만을 고려한 예측 방법의 정확도가 모든 흥행 요소들을 고려한 예측 방법보다 평균 8.2% 향상되었고, 현재까지 개발된 영화 흥행 예측 방법보다 더 높은 예측 성능을 보여준다.

• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.1-13
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• 2019

This study examines the impact of factors that affect Hollywood movies' box office performance, using a sample of 149 movies that were ranked number 1 on the first week of release between 2014 and 2018. Such factors as production budget, the number of opening screens, the valence and volume of both critics and netizens, rating, distributor's power, remake, high season, genre are introduced to analyze box office performance. The result shows that the determinants of the US box office and the total box office are different. Considering the difference in budget by genre, the number of opening screens is not influential in the US box office performance of all genres with production budget of less than $100 million. The result suggests the need to refine more elaborated models for future research on box office performance.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2021.05a
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• pp.316-318
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• 2021

영화 수익에 있어 영화의 흥행 여부는 중요한 영향을 끼친다. 영화 흥행 요인은 영화 산업의 규모가 커지면서 많은 제작사들 및 투자자들이 고려해야 하는 사항이 되었다. 따라서 영화의 흥행을 예측하기 위한 많은 모델이 연구되었다. 본 연구의 목적은 선행연구에서 흥행에 유의미한 영향을 끼친다고 밝혀진 스크린 수, 감독명, 제작사명 등의 내재적인 속성과 더불어 온라인 구전 변수를 사용하여 영화 흥행 예측 모델을 만드는 것이다. 이때 기사 수, 블로그 수와 같이 온라인 구전의 크기를 나타내는 변수들을 사용하는 대신 개봉 후 첫 주간의 관람객 리뷰를 텍스트마이닝을 이용하여 전체 리뷰 중 긍정 리뷰의 비율에 따라 점수를 매긴 후 독립변수로 사용한다. 그 후, 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용하여 만든 모델에 앞서 언급한 독립변수를 입력 값으로 사용하여 영화의 흥행을 예측한다. 최종적으로 의사결정트리와 로지스틱회귀를 수행한 결과 영화 흥행에 영향을 주는 독립변수를 찾고 모델의 성능을 평가하였다. 로지스틱회귀의 결과 관객 수, 평점이 영화의 흥행에 특히 유의한 영향을 끼치는 변수로 선정되었고 리뷰 역시 유의한 변수로 선정되었다. 이때 만들어진 모델은 약 90%의 높은 수준의 정확도를 보여주었다. 의사결정트리의 결과 관객 수가 가장 중요한 변수로 선정되었다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.221-229
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• 2020

This study aims to find out predictors of a movie's eventual box office, focusing on a movie's box office rank on an opening day. For an empirical analysis, I use data of 794 commercial movies released in the Korean theatrical exhibition market during the recent five years(2013~2017). The regression analysis shows that being box office number one on an opening day has statistically significant impact on a movie's final box office. A movie's quality, measured by audience's review, does not give significant impact on top1 movie's final success. Indexes such as increase of showing number on Sunday are strongly related to a movie's economic success. The additional analysis on box office number one movie on an opening day, totally 158 movies, finds that box office growth rate on a second week is strongly related to a movie's final success. Lastly, correlation coefficient of a movie's opening day box office and final box office does not show consistent growth when the coefficient is compared yearly. This study might have meaning in that it proposes new box office predictors and shows the relation of the indexes and a movie's final performance empirically.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.381-393
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• 2010

The purpose of this research is to identify the different determinants according to the types of motion pictures; art film and commercial film. We found that the regression equations of two types of motions pictures are structurally different. More specifically, we identified that the number of screens, viewers' evaluation, and genres have a significant relationship with the performance of motion pictures both in the commercial and art film. However, director, ratings, critics, power of agency, nationality, and the timing of release affect the performance of motion pictures just on the art films.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.96-105
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• 2016

This study examined determinants of movie success from foreign countries except the U.S. in Korea. This research is based on analyses of data based on 500 movies between 2004 and 2013. The major results are following; firstly, in terms of movie success, there were significant differences among three attributes including the origin of countries, genres and distributors. Although determinants of movie success from Japan were animation genre and major distributors, they were action genre and major distributors for European countries. Determinants of movie success from other countries was only animation genre. However, there were no any explanation factions for Chinese movies.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.859-869
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• 2011

Interest has increased in academic research regarding key factors that drive box-office success as well as the ability to predict the box-office success of a movie from a commercial perspective. This study analyzed the relationship between key success factors of a movie and box office records based on movies released in 2010 in Korea. At the pre-production investment decision-making stage, the movie genre, motion picture rating, director power, and actor power were statistically significant. At the stage of distribution decision-making process after movie production, among other factors, the influence of star actors, number of screens, power of distributors, and social media turned out to be statistically significant. We verified movie success factors through the application of a Multinomial Logit Model that used the concept of choice probabilities. The Multinomial Logit Model resulted in a higher level of accuracy in predicting box-office success compared to the Artificial Neural Network and Discriminant Analysis.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.108-115
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• 2013

This study focused on whether the existence and type of originals have any effects on box-office performance of the movie. Cultural products have characteristics of experience goods of which consumers hardly know the value of the products before they actually experience the products. To reduce the uncertainty, movie producers may want to use existing contents already made for other type of cultural products, which is generally called of One Source Multi Use. Using 381 Korean box-office data during January 2010 and September 2012, this study found that, first, the existence of original affects positively the movie's box office performance, second, the fiction based original has a positive effect on the movie's box office performance while cartoon and movie/TV based originals do not, and third, the movie type(commercial movie) positively moderates the relationship between fiction based original and movie performance. This study showed that box-office performance is not only affected by the characteristics of the movie itself, but also affected by other conditions including the use of existing originals created for other purposes.

• Cartoon and Animation Studies
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• s.33
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• pp.293-315
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• 2013

The number of French movies imported to and released in S. Korea is constantly increasing. All French movies released in Korean theatres, however, are not a great success. For the domestic film market and audiences, the idea French cinema is generally equivalent to 'diversity cinema' or 'arthouse films' is common notion. In this respect, French movies introduced throughout the country would be culture product into which one can read other cultural significances different from that of domestic cinema, and also serve significant cultural value to understand diversity in cinema, for domestic audiences. However, it could be said that French movies, in common with Hollywood films, obey rules in the film industry and needs for audience trends. In this content, what the researchers want to do is to analysis the tendency of the domestic audience reception and main causes of commercial success in the domestic film market, analysing Taken produced in France. The analysis, most of all, suggests the consideration for the film industry beside the notion of cultural diversity in cinema, as imported films are released in the domestic theatre. For this, the study examines the promotional strategy the french cinema perceived generally as the arthouse film applies extensively, analysing on Taken, and inquires into factors of commercial success, using SWOT Analysis. This study, the first of all, (briefly) examines what audiences consider when they choose a film to watch, articulating (generally) the choice-and-consume modality of the domestic audience. And then, it examines dominant factors Taken was a commercial success in domestic film market, even though the film is a french film, using SWOT Analysis. On the basis of SWOT Analysis, finally, this study draws up promotional plan for Taken, and shed new light on dominant preconditions, when the foreign cinema would be imported from the now on.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.681-686
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• 2024

The film crews is a unique organization composed of members with expertise in each field and operated temporarily for a relatively short period of time. This study attempted to infer that the group characteristics and ability of the film crews to draw out the members' capabilities will affect the success or failure of the film, and to investigate their influence relationship. To this end, the research model was designed with diversity, cohesion, and information utilization as independent variables, and the artistry and box office performance of the film as dependent variables. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the diversity of the film crew affects both the artistry and box office performance, and the cohesion only affects the artistry. However, it was found that information utilization had no effect on film performance. It was confirmed that the diversity of the film crews was related to the film performance, and the cohesion had a limited effect. The results of this study provide implications that the design concept of the film crews based on diversity may be more important than process factors such as information utilization.