• Title/Summary/Keyword: 효율적 시장가설

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An Analysis of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Western China, 1990-2007 (중국 서부지역 외국인직접투자(FDI)의 결정요인에 관한 분석: 1990-2007 기간을 중심으로)

  • Peng, Xian-Feng;Choi, Sung-Il
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.471-491
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    • 2011
  • This study is to analyze the determinants of inflow FDI with panel data of 12 provinces in western region of China for the period, 1990-2007, from the perspective of market-oriented FDI and production-efficiency-oriented FDI. The empirical findings are following. First, the empirical results prior to the start of western development program show that the GRDP, the intense of industrialization and university graduates per 10,000 residents have positive coefficient signs at the significant level, while wage level has a negative and significant value. Second the empirical results using the data after the launching of the western development program show that the GRDP, the intense of industrialization have positive relations with FDI, while openness in terms of the ratio of international trade to GRDP and the wage level have negative coefficients. Finally, this thesis finds that the empirical results for both periods are very similar, which suggest that the economic structure in western region has not changed significantly even though almost a decade passed since the western development program launched.

A Comparative Study on the Excess Returns of Growth Stocks and Value Stocks in the Korean Stock Market (한국 주식시장에서 성장주와 가치주의 초과수익률 비교 연구)

  • Koh, Seunghee
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.213-222
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    • 2018
  • This study attempts to empirically investigate the excess returns of growth stocks in the Korean stock market comparing with those of value stocks. Recently, a few of IT and bio-pharmaceutical stocks with high growth potentials have accomplished dramatically high returns in the Korean stock market. Whereas, important prior studies in this line have observed negative excess returns from investment of growth stocks on average. And a few studies have reported that the distribution of excess returns from growth stocks is not normal but positively skewed. Empirical results of the present study are consistent with those of prior studies. Interestingly, the present study observed serial inverse correlation between excess returns of growth stocks and value stocks. Also, regardless of growth or value stocks, the stocks with higher PEG(=PER/ROE) showed higher excess returns.

시계열(時系列) 자료(資料)와 재무관리(財務管理) 이론(理論)

  • Lee, Il-Gyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 1994
  • 재무관리의 모든 영역을 완벽하게 이해하기 위하여는 기업재무관리와 투자론을 비롯하여 금융산업 전체에 대한 연역적 방법에 의한 이론의 정립과 실증분석을 통한 이론의 정립이 관건이라 할 수 있다. 이 논문에서는 실증 분석을 수행함에 있어 우리나라에서 활발하게 논의가 진행되지 않는 시계열분석의 영역을 살펴보았다. 그것은 이와 같은 분야를 천착해 봄으로써 이 분야가 재무관리에 대한 통찰력과 현실 적합성의 판단력을 배양하는데 큰 공헌을 할 수 있으리라는 믿음 때문이다. 이 논의를 통하여 시계열 분석에 대한 활발한 연구가 진행되기를 기대하고 있다. 시계열 확률과정에 대한 재무관리이론을 연역적으로 도출하기는 용이하지 않다. 시계열 분석에서 제시되는 여러 방법론을 재무관리의 시계열에 적용하여 그 시계열의 성질과 특성을 파악하면 그것이 그대로 현실에 적용될 수 있을 것이다. 이러한 연구의 결과는 어떤 형태로든 연역적 방법에 의한 이론의 정립에 깊은 영향을 미칠 것이다. 뿐만 아니라 연속시간의 틀과 이시적(異時的) 양태하(樣態下)에서 많은 재무관리 모형들이 개발되고 있으며, 동태적 상황을 해명하는 의도에서 이 모형들이 연구되고 있는 만큼 시계열 분석은 이 분야에 직접적으로 이용될 수 있다. 시계열 분석에서 제시된 많은 모형들이 재무관리의 실증적 현상을 설명하는데 효과적으로 활용될 수 있다. 뿐만 아니라 현재 연역적으로 개발된 모형들이 설명할 수 없는 부분을 시계열 분석이 직접적으로 해명할 수 있는 능력을 확보하고 있음도 제시되었다. 증권의 현가모형(現價模型), 이자율의 기간구조, 효율적 시장가설도 주가의 변동성 등은 시계열 분석의 다양한 기법을 사용하여 검증되어야 하며, 이 경우 특히 분산의 추정방법을 여러 측면에서 개발해 야 할 것이다. 시계열 분석에서는 두개 또는 그 이상의 기법을 하나로 통합하는 방법이 있을 수 있다. ARIMA와 ARCH가 결합되는 것을 본 바 있다. 구조적(構造的) 변화(變化)(structural change)모형(模型)과 ARCH의 결합도 가능하다. 다른 분야로서는 변동성(變動性)에 관한 연구이다. 변동성(變動性)에 관한 연구는 variance bounds test에 한정된 감이 있으나 정보와 변동성의 관계가 중요시되고 있는 만큼 정보집합과 시계열 분석 기법의 결합은 변동성의 연구에 새로운 지평을 열어줄 것으로 보인다. 따라서 정보집합의 형성에 따라 새로운 추정방법이 개발될 여지가 풍부하다.

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THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE UNDER RATIONAL EXPECTATION (이성적(理性的) 기대하(期待下)의 환율행태분석(換率行態分析))

  • Yu, Il-Seong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.31-62
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    • 1989
  • By using deterministic dynamic models, we observe the behavior of the foreign exchange rate of a small open economy with rational expectation formation and different restrictions on the international economic integrations. First, an economy connected to the world by purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity is studied in the next section. In both sections, financial assets available in the economy are domestic money and bonds. Stocks are added as a financial instrument in the next section, and real capital accumulation is also taken into account. Furthermore, the economy concerned there is fairly autonomous, and not directly governed by either purchasing power parity or uncovered interest parity. The expectation formation used throughout the whole paper is complete perfect foresight, which is the certainty version of rational expectation and free from any forecast errors. It is found that upon monetary expansion the short run depreciation of the foreign exchange rate is a fairly robust result regardless of the degree of the international economic integration, while it is not true for fiscal expansion. The expectation on the long run state significantly affects the short run response of the exchange rate. All of our models postulate that the current account should be balanced eventually. As the result, the short run behavior of the exchange rate is affected by the expectation on the long run balance and may well be a blend of the traditional flow view and modem asset view. The initial overshooting of the exchange rate is easily observed even in the fairly autonomous economy Furthermore, the initial overshooting is not reduced over time, but augmented for some time before it is eventually eliminated. As long as we maintain rational expectaion, introducing time delay in the adjustment of the foreign goods price to the foreign exchange rate does not make much difference.

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A Study on the Efficient Improvement Policy of Private Network (자가전기통신설비의 효율적인 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • 이동식;임종근;김기문
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2002
  • Construction of Private networks is becoming easier due to the openness of telecommunication market, rapidly developing telecommunication technology. The size of existing private networks is becoming huge which resulted in surplus of capacity of the networks. These trends will generate a problem of efficient use of "national telecommunication resources" and which ill be a factor for the structure of domestic telecommunication market which will have a big impact on the existing telecommunication carriers. Therefore, national policy of private network issues should be considered along with the national efforts for the information infrastructure, control of telecommunication market, fairness of competition, strength power of national competition. In this paper it will be suggested that the efficient policy on the issue of domestic private network, by analyzing present situation, status quo, laws, regulation and procedure for domestic private networks and comparing it with those of U.S.A, Japan, EU.apan, EU.

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Prediction of the direction of stock prices by machine learning techniques (기계학습을 활용한 주식 가격의 이동 방향 예측)

  • Kim, Yonghwan;Song, Seongjoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.745-760
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    • 2021
  • Prediction of a stock price has been a subject of interest for a long time in financial markets, and thus, many studies have been conducted in various directions. As the efficient market hypothesis introduced in the 1970s acquired supports, it came to be the majority opinion that it was impossible to predict stock prices. However, recent advances in predictive models have led to new attempts to predict the future prices. Here, we summarize past studies on the price prediction by evaluation measures, and predict the direction of stock prices of Samsung Electronics, LG Chem, and NAVER by applying various machine learning models. In addition to widely used technical indicator variables, accounting indicators such as Price Earning Ratio and Price Book-value Ratio and outputs of the hidden Markov Model are used as predictors. From the results of our analysis, we conclude that no models show significantly better accuracy and it is not possible to predict the direction of stock prices with models used. Considering that the models with extra predictors show relatively high test accuracy, we may expect the possibility of a meaningful improvement in prediction accuracy if proper variables that reflect the opinions and sentiments of investors would be utilized.

The Effect of Information Privacy Concerns on E-Trust and E-Loyalty : The Moderating Role of Switching Cost (정보보안우려감이 e-신뢰도와 e-충성도에 미치는 영향: 전환비용의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Moon, Yun Ji;Choi, Hun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.131-134
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    • 2014
  • The Internet allows firms to serve customers more effectively than ever before. In the B2C context, we examine the interrelationships among information privacy concerns, e-trust, and e-loyalty. The authors extend prior research by incorporating constructs of information privacy concerns into a more holistic conceptual framework. This study answers three research questions: Will the three components of information privacy concerns have a significant effect on e-loyalty through e-trust?, Does e-trust mediate e-loyalty?, Finally, do switching costs have a moderation effect between e-trust and e-loyalty?, The authors examine data from customers who have booked hotel accommodations online. The results support our hypotheses and confirm both the mediation role of e-trust and the moderation role of switching costs. Conceptually, this study provides an empirical validation of information privacy concerns, e-trust, and loyalty linkage. On the managerial level, this research provides insights into critical drivers of loyalty in the emerging online marketplace.

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The Relationship between Ownership(and Outside Directors) and Firm Value in KOSDAQ (코스닥 상장법인의 소유구조 및 사외이사와 기업가치 간의 관련성 분석)

  • Park, Bum-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.45-73
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    • 2007
  • The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, In relation to effects of ownership structure on firm value, there is the non-linear relationship between major(and foreign) shareholder's holdings and firm value. So the results(the compromise hypothesis) by prior researches(Morck et al. 1988 and so forth) is supported. However Institutional shareholder's holdings do not show the significant results. Second, In relation to effects of outside directors on firm value, equally the results of prior researches(Vafeas 2000, Choi et al. 2004), the higher the ratio of outside directors in the board, the higher firm value. Also there is the non-linear relationship between outside directors ratio and firm value. Furthermore, the higher the possibility of outside directors election in the board, the higher the relationship between ownership structure and firm value. As the economic importance of KOSDAQ is more increase, the researches of KOSDAQ should be more realized.

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A Study on the Evaluation Methods of IRDS for Screening the Industrial Design Proposals (IRDS 시스템에 의한 디자인 컨셉트의 평가방법 연구)

  • 우흥룡
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.20
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 1997
  • This paper aims to aid a practical evaluation for screening out the design proposais under applying the IRDS system, which is developed a computer aided industrial design system as a computer application system. In this study, the author adopted 3 evaluation methods with criteria which have quantitative and qualitative attributes : the Intuitive Evaluation Methods(X), the Accumulative Evaluation Method(Y), the Benchmarking Evaluation Methods(Z). The results show that the 3 Methods have reciprocal relationships under reliability(r=0.0001). In analysis on the properties of the evaluation methods, the Evaluation Method (X) shows rapidity especially, the Evaluation Method (Y); relativity, the Evaluation Method(Z); importance respectively. The correlation analysis between the evaluation methods makes the null hypothesis denying, then we could adapt the research hypothesis. Therefore the correlation between them has positive relationship, and it shows thicker than the result of the 1st study.

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A Study on the Effects of Relationship Characteristics to Repurchase Intention in the Distribution Channels of Travel Agency (여행도매업체와 여행소매업체간 관계형성 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Shim, Jong-Seop;Lee, Nark-Kwee
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.15
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    • pp.25-45
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of study is to examine how tour wholesaler's relationship characteristics to tour retailer affect trust, commitment, and repurchase intention in the distribution channel of travel industry. There are several detailed purposes of this study. First, this study is to grasp the factors of tour wholesaler's relationship characteristics to tour retailer. Secondly, this study is to examine how tour wholesaler's relationship characteristics to tour retailer affect trust and commitment. Thirdly, this study is to examine how trust on tour wholesaler, which is divided into two levels, firm and salesperson in charge, affects each other and commitment. Fourthly, this study is to examine how trust on tour wholesaler finn and salesperson in charge and commitment affect repurchase intention. Fifthly, this study is to suggest more efficient basis for marketing strategies to C.E.O or officer in charge of decision making of tour wholesaler, and help them to make right decisions. Managerial implications can be drawn from this study. One is that it is recognized that tour wholesaler's relationship characteristics to tour retailer consist of those to tour wholesaler finn such as reputation, physical characteristics, communication and those to salesperson in charge such as expertise, likability, similarity, frequent contact affect trust and commitment positively. Therefore, C.E.O and officer in charge of decision making of tour wholesaler should set up marketing strategies to get positive results at both levels, a finn and a salesperson. The other is that it is important that a tour wholesaler should manage their tour retailer with relationship oriented methods such as building trust, and make every endeavor to retain long term relationship with tour retailer.

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