• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.39-55
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• 2006

Pioneer brand and follower brand show differences in their perception of the environmental uncertainty. Market pioneer brand companies think that the environment is relatively simple and doesn't change much, whereas follower bland companies think that the environment is complicated and changes a lot. For market pioneer brand companies, among dynamism on the environment lever, there was less potential for the environment and parts, and government restrictions compared to follower brand companies. Also the complexity of the environment level complicated compared to the follower brand companies in areas such as competition for consumers with rival companies, materials, resources of equipment and parts, government restrictions, and the amount of change of the market's preference of the product.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.619-628
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• 2009

To predict the time-dependent behavior of concrete structures, the models which describe the time-dependent characteristics of concrete, i.e. creep and shrinkage are required. However, there must be significant differences between the displacements that are obtained using the given creep and shrinkage models and the measured displacements, because of the uncertainties of creep and shrinkage model itself and those of environmental condition. There are some efforts to reduce these error or uncertainties by using the model which are obtained from creep test for the concrete in construction site. Nevertheless, the predicted values from this model may be still different from the actual values due to the same reason. This study aimed to propose a method of estimating the creep coefficient from the measured displacements of concrete structure, where creep model uncertainty factor was considered as an error factor of creep model. Numerical validation for double composite steel box and concrete beam showed desirable feasibility of the presented method. Consideration of the time-dependent characteristics of creep as one of the error factors make it possible to predict long-term behaviors of concrete structures more realistically, especially long-span PSC girder bridges and concrete cable-stayed bridges of which major problem is the geometry control under construction and maintenance.

• Proceedings of the KSEEG Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.39-42
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• 2003

중금속으로 오염된 폐광산 주변부나 유류누출로 인한 토양오염 등과 같은 오염부지에 대한 환경조사는 그 결과를 토대로 환경계획이나 정책이 수립되므로 의사결정의 기초가 된다. 이때, 의사결정의 타당성은 오염부지 조사결과 오염도가 얼마나 정확하게 측정되었느냐에 따라 달리 평가되어 진다. 그러므로 이와 같은 환경조사는 측정결과의 불확실성이 감소되도록 정밀한 시료채취방법이나 분석방법을 고안하여 적용해야 한다. (중략)

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.11b
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• pp.353-355
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• 2005

전력계통이 시장환경이 바뀌어감에 따라 기존의 독점체제하에서의 계통계획과는 달리 시장의 영향, 불확실성의 증가 등을 고려한 새로운 개념의 계통계획 기법이 필요하게 되었다. 본 논문에서는 계통혼잡비용을 바탕으로 송전망 확충의 경제성을 평가하는 기법을 제안하고 이를 바탕으로 송전망 확충의 경세성을 평가하는 방식을 제안한다.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.83-92
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• 2012

짐바브웨는 식량부족을 격어 오고 있으며, 이는 기후변화에 따른 수자원의 부족, 인구증가, 개발 및 환경보전 등으로 인하여 앞으로는 더욱 심화될 것으로 보인다. 3가지 배출시나리오 (A2, A1B, B1)에 대한 13개의 GCM 기후자료로부터 상세화한 기후예측값과 AquaCrop 작물모형을 이용하여 기후변화가 짐바브웨의 주곡인 옥수수의 수확량에 미치는 영향과 모형예측값의 불확실성을 분석하였다. 작물생육환경이 잘 유지된다고 가정하고 옥수수 잠재생산량을 모의한 결과 기준년도 (1970s)에 비해 2020s, 2050s and 2090s 년대에 평균 (범위) 8 % (6-9 %), 14 % (10-15 %) 및 16 % (11-17 %) 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 같은 기간에 대한 물의 생산성은 평균 (범위) 7 % (4-13 %), 13 % (6-30 %) 및 15% (6-23 %) 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 기온의 꾸준한 상승과 대기중 이산화탄소 농도 증가로 인한 시비효과로 인하여 미래에는 옥수수 단위 생산량과 물의 생산성이 증가할 것으로 예측되었으며 증가 범위를 보면 모형간의 변동성이 상당히 큰 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구결과는 기후변화가 짐바브웨의 옥수수 생산량에 미치는 영향과 변동성을 제시하므로서 장기적인 식량계획의 기초자료로 이용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.403-419
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• 2016

Cap-and-trade policies that allow firms to trade emission allowances are designed to reduce emissions at least cost and are shown to be efficient when there is no uncertainty over emissions. This paper examines how uncertainty in emissions affects firms' decisions about permit purchase and abatement. The results show that whether firms abate more under uncertainty compared to a case with no uncertainty depends on the expected penalty cost and marginal abatement cost. If the expected marginal penalty cost is greater than the marginal abatement cost, the firm will choose to reduce emissions and abate more under uncertainty. When the expected marginal penalty is greater than the marginal cost of abatement, increases in uncertainty result in reduced emissions. This paper also examines whether the order of abatement and permit trading and the realization of uncertainty affect firms' decisions. The results show that total expected emissions are the same regardless of the order of moves.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.69-79
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• 2019

The coastal area forms various sedimentary layers according to the environmental conditions such as the topography and geological features of the upper region of the river, ocean currents, and river mouth. Therefore, identifying the characteristics of the marine clay deposited in the coastal area plays a key role in the investigation of the formation of soft ground. In general, alluvial grounds are formed by a variety of factors such as changes in topography and natural environment, they have very diverse qualities depending on the deposited region or sedimentation conditions. The most important thing for the construction of social infrastructures in soft ground areas is economical and efficient treatment of soft ground. In this study, the author collected data from diverse laboratory and field tests on five areas in western and southern offshore with relatively high reliability, and then statistically analyzed them, thereby presenting standard constants for construction design. Correlation between design parameters such as over consolidation ratio, preconsolidation pressure was analyzed using linear and non-linear regression analyses. Also, proposed distribution characteristics of design parameters in consideration of each region's uncertainty through statistical analyses such as normality verification, outlier removal.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.10
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• pp.747-757
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• 2021

Quantification of extreme rainfall is very important in establishing a flood protection plan, and a general measure of extreme rainfall is expressed as an T-year return level. In this study, a method was proposed for quantifying spatial distribution and uncertainty of daily rainfall depths with various return periods using a hierarchical Bayesian model combined with climate and geographical information, and was applied to the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region. The annual maximum daily rainfall depth of six automated synoptic observing system weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration in the study area was fitted to the generalized extreme value distribution. The applicability and reliability of the proposed method were investigated by comparing daily rainfall quantiles for various return levels derived from the at-site frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method. The uncertainty of the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method was found to be the greatest at all stations and all return levels, and it was confirmed that the reliability of the regional frequency analysis based on the hierarchical Bayesian model was the highest. The proposed method can be used to generate the rainfall quantile maps for various return levels in the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region and other regions with similar spatial sizes.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.323-324
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• 2012

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Communication Sciences Conference
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• 2006.07a
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• pp.654-654
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• 2006