• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 기반

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Prospects of future extreme precipitation in South-North Korea shared river basin according to RCP climate change scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 남북공유하천유역 미래 극한강수량 변화 전망)

  • Yeom, Woongsun;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Kown, Minsung;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.9
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    • pp.647-655
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    • 2019
  • Although problems such as river management and flood control have occurred continuously in the Imjin and Bukhan river basin, which are shared by South and North Korea, efforts to manage the basin have not been carried out consistently due to limited cooperation. As the magnitude and frequency of hydrologic phenomena are changing due to global climate change, it is necessary to prepare countermeasures for the rainfall variation in the shared river basin area. Therefore, this study was aimed to project future changes in extreme precipitation in South-North Korea shared river basin by applying 13 Global Climate Models (GCM). Results showed that the probability rainfall compared to the reference period (1981-2005) of the shared river basin increased in the future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the rainfall frequency over the 20-year return period was increased in all periods except for the future periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. The extreme precipitation in the shared river basin has increased both in magnitude and frequency, and it is expected that the region will have a significant impact from climate change.

Vital Sign Detection in a Noisy Environment by Undesirable Micro-Motion (원하지 않는 작은 동작에 의한 잡음 환경 내 생체신호 탐지 기법)

  • Choi, In-Oh;Kim, Min;Choi, Jea-Ho;Park, Jeong-Ki;Kim, Kyung-Tae
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.418-426
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    • 2019
  • Recently, many studies on vital sign detection using a radar sensor related to Internet of Things(IoT) smart home systems have been conducted. Because vital signs such as respiration and cardiac rates generally cause micro-motions in the chest or back, the phase of the received echo signal from a target fluctuates according to the micro-motion. Therefore, vital signs are usually detected via spectral analysis of the phase. However, the probability of false alarms in cardiac rate detection increases as a result of various problems in the measurement environment, such as very weak phase fluctuations caused by the cardiac rate. Therefore, this study analyzes the difficulties of vital sign detection and proposes an efficient vital sign detection algorithm consisting of four main stages: 1) phase decomposition, 2) phase differentiation and filtering, 3) vital sign detection, and 4) reduction of the probability of false alarm. Experimental results using impulse-radio ultra-wideband radar show that the proposed algorithm is very efficient in terms of computation and accuracy.

Securing Safety in Collaborative Cyber-Physical Systems Through Fault Criticality Analysis (협업 사이버물리시스템의 결함 치명도 분석을 통한 안전성 확보)

  • Hussain, Manzoor;Ali, Nazakat;Hong, Jang-Eui
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.287-300
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    • 2021
  • Collaborative Cyber-Physical Systems (CCPS) are those systems that contain tightly coupled physical and cyber components, massively interconnected subsystems, and collaborate to achieve a common goal. The safety of a single Cyber-Physical System (CPS) can be achieved by following the safety standards such as ISO 26262 and IEC 61508 or by applying hazard analysis techniques. However, due to the complex, highly interconnected, heterogeneous, and collaborative nature of CCPS, a fault in one CPS's components can trigger many other faults in other collaborating CPSs. Therefore, a safety assurance technique based on fault criticality analysis would require to ensure safety in CCPS. This paper presents a Fault Criticality Matrix (FCM) implemented in our tool called CPSTracer, which contains several data such as identified fault, fault criticality, safety guard, etc. The proposed FCM is based on composite hazard analysis and content-based relationships among the hazard analysis artifacts, and ensures that the safety guard controls the identified faults at design time; thus, we can effectively manage and control the fault at the design phase to ensure the safe development of CPSs. To justify our approach, we introduce a case study on the Platooning system (a collaborative CPS). We perform the criticality analysis of the Platooning system using FCM in our developed tool. After the detailed fault criticality analysis, we investigate the results to check the appropriateness and effectiveness with two research questions. Also, by performing simulation for the Platooning, we showed that the rate of collision of the Platooning system without using FCM was quite high as compared to the rate of collisions of the system after analyzing the fault criticality using FCM.

Analysis of the Impact Relationship for Risk Factors on Big Data Projects Using SNA (SNA를 활용한 빅데이터 프로젝트의 위험요인 영향 관계 분석)

  • Park, Dae-Gwi;Kim, Seung-Hee
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2021
  • In order to increase the probability of success in big data projects, quantified techniques are required to analyze the root cause of risks from complex causes and establish optimal countermeasures. To this end, this study measures risk factors and relationships through SNA analysis and presents a way to respond to risks based on them. In other words, it derives a dependency network matrix by utilizing the results of correlation analysis between risk groups in the big data projects presented in the preliminary study and performs SNA analysis. In order to derive the dependency network matrix, partial correlation is obtained from the correlation between the risk nodes, and activity dependencies are derived by node by calculating the correlation influence and correlation dependency, thereby producing the causal relationship between the risk nodes and the degree of influence between all nodes in correlation. Recognizing the root cause of risks from networks between risk factors derived through SNA between risk factors enables more optimized and efficient risk management. This study is the first to apply SNA analysis techniques in relation to risk management response, and the results of this study are significant in that it not only optimizes the sequence of risk management for major risks in relation to risk management in IT projects but also presents a new risk analysis technique for risk control.

A Study on the Design of Prediction Model for Safety Evaluation of Partial Discharge (부분 방전의 안전도 평가를 위한 예측 모델 설계)

  • Lee, Su-Il;Ko, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2020
  • Partial discharge occurs a lot in high-voltage power equipment such as switchgear, transformers, and switch gears. Partial discharge shortens the life of the insulator and causes insulation breakdown, resulting in large-scale damage such as a power outage. There are several types of partial discharge that occur inside the product and the surface. In this paper, we design a predictive model that can predict the pattern and probability of occurrence of partial discharge. In order to analyze the designed model, learning data for each type of partial discharge was collected through the UHF sensor by using a simulator that generates partial discharge. The predictive model designed in this paper was designed based on CNN during deep learning, and the model was verified through learning. To learn about the designed model, 5000 training data were created, and the form of training data was used as input data for the model by pre-processing the 3D raw data input from the UHF sensor as 2D data. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the accuracy of the model designed through learning has an accuracy of 0.9972. It was found that the accuracy of the proposed model was higher in the case of learning by making the data into a two-dimensional image and learning it in the form of a grayscale image.

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Analyzing The Economic Impact of The Fire Risk Reduction at Regional Level in Goyang City (지역단위 화재 위험도 저감의 고양시 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Son, Minsu;Cho, Dongin;Park, Chang Keun;Ko, Hyun A;Jung, Seunghyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.685-693
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    • 2021
  • This study examined the fire risk of the region in Goyang City using the spatial information data of buildings. The economic damage by industry was assessed according to the probability of fire risk. The study area was confined to Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, and the same fire risk reduction rate was applied to each region for the convenience of analysis. The possibility of fire was derived based on the buildings' density and usage in the area by National GIS building-integrated information standard data. The calculation of economic damage by industry in Goyang City due to the fire risk was calculated by combining the Goyang-si industry-related model produced by matching with 30 industrial categories in Input-Output Statistics of Korea Bank and 20 industrial categories in the Goyang-si business survey and the possibility of fire. The basic scenario of production impossibility during six months and business loss due to fire was established and analyzed based on the supply model. The analysis showed that Ilsan-dong-gu, Ilsan-seo-gu, and Deokyang-gu suffered the most economic damage. The "electricity, gas, steam, and water business" showed the greatest loss by industry.

Evaluation of extreme rainfall estimation obtained from NSRP model based on the objective function with statistical third moment (통계적 3차 모멘트 기반의 목적함수를 이용한 NSRP 모형의 극치강우 재현능력 평가)

  • Cho, Hemie;Kim, Yong-Tak;Yu, Jae-Ung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.545-556
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    • 2022
  • It is recommended to use long-term hydrometeorological data for more than the service life of the hydraulic structures and water resource planning. For the purpose of expanding rainfall data, stochastic simulation models, such as Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (BLRP) and Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse (NSRP) models, have been widely used. The optimal parameters of the model can be estimated by repeatedly comparing the statistical moments defined through a combination of parameters of the probability distribution in the optimization context. However, parameter estimation using relatively small observed rainfall statistics corresponds to an ill-posed problem, leading to an increase in uncertainty in the parameter estimation process. In addition, as shown in previous studies, extreme values are underestimated because objective functions are typically defined by the first and second statistical moments (i.e., mean and variance). In this regard, this study estimated the parameters of the NSRP model using the objective function with the third moment and compared it with the existing approach based on the first and second moments in terms of estimation of extreme rainfall. It was found that the first and second moments did not show a significant difference depending on whether or not the skewness was considered in the objective function. However, the proposed model showed significantly improved performance in terms of estimation of design rainfalls.

Exploring Issues Related to the Metaverse from the Educational Perspective Using Text Mining Techniques - Focusing on News Big Data (텍스트마이닝 기법을 활용한 교육관점에서의 메타버스 관련 이슈 탐색 - 뉴스 빅데이터를 중심으로)

  • Park, Ju-Yeon;Jeong, Do-Heon
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the metaverse-related issues in the news big data from an educational perspective, explore their characteristics, and provide implications for the educational applicability of the metaverse and future education. To this end, 41,366 cases of metaverse-related data searched on portal sites were collected, and weight values of all extracted keywords were calculated and ranked using TF-IDF, a representative term weight model, and then word cloud visualization analysis was performed. In addition, major topics were analyzed using topic modeling(LDA), a sophisticated probability-based text mining technique. As a result of the study, topics such as platform industry, future talent, and extension in technology were derived as core issues of the metaverse from an educational perspective. In addition, as a result of performing secondary data analysis under three key themes of technology, job, and education, it was found that metaverse has issues related to education platform innovation, future job innovation, and future competency innovation in future education. This study is meaningful in that it analyzes a vast amount of news big data in stages to draw issues from an education perspective and provide implications for future education.

A study on prediction method for flood risk using LENS and flood risk matrix (국지 앙상블자료와 홍수위험매트릭스를 이용한 홍수위험도 예측 방법 연구)

  • Choi, Cheonkyu;Kim, Kyungtak;Choi, Yunseok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.657-668
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    • 2022
  • With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.

Aqueous Boron Adsorption on Carbonized Nanofibers Prepared from Electrospun Polyacrylonitrile(PAN) Mats (전기방사 후 탄소화된 폴리아크릴로니트릴(PAN) 나노섬유의 수용액 중 붕소 흡착)

  • Hong, So Hee;Han, Sun-Gie;Kim, Su Young;Won, Yong Sun
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.210-217
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    • 2022
  • Boron(B) is a rare resource used for various purposes such as glass, semiconductor materials, gunpowder, rocket fuel, etc. However, Korea depends entirely on imports for boron. Considering the global boron reserves and its current production rate, boron will be depleted on earth in 50 years. Thus, a process including proper adsorbent materials recovering boron from seawater is demanded. This research proposed carbonized nanofibers prepared from electrospun PAN(polyacrylonitrile) mats as promising materials to adsorb boron in aqueous solution. First, the mechanism of boron adsorption on carbonized nanofibers was investigated by DFT(density functional method)-based molecular modeling and the calculated energetics demonstrated that the boron chemisorption on the nitrogen-doped graphene surface by a two-step dehydration is possible with viable activation energies. Then, the electrospun PAN mats were stabilized in air and then carbonized in an argon atmosphere before being immersed in the boric acid aqueous solution. Analytically, SEM(scanning electron microscopy) and Raman measurements were employed to confirm whether the electrospinning and carbonization of PAN mats proceeded successfully. Then, XPS(X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy) peak analysis showed whether the intended nitrogen-doped carbon nanofiber surface was formed and boron was properly adsorbed on nanofibers. Those results demonstrated that the carbonized nanofibers prepared from electrospun PAN mats could be feasible adsorbents for boron recovery in seawater.