• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 궤적

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Voice Personality Transformation Using a Probabilistic Method (확률적 방법을 이용한 음성 개성 변환)

  • Lee Ki-Seung
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.150-159
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    • 2005
  • This paper addresses a voice personality transformation algorithm which makes one person's voices sound as if another person's voices. In the proposed method, one person's voices are represented by LPC cepstrum, pitch period and speaking rate, the appropriate transformation rules for each Parameter are constructed. The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is used to model one speaker's LPC cepstrums and conditional probability is used to model the relationship between two speaker's LPC cepstrums. To obtain the parameters representing each probabilistic model. a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation method is employed. The transformed LPC cepstrums are obtained by using a Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) criterion. Pitch period and speaking rate are used as the parameters for prosody transformation, which is implemented by using the ratio of the average values. The proposed method reveals the superior performance to the previous VQ-based method in subjective measures including average cepstrum distance reduction ratio and likelihood increasing ratio. In subjective test. we obtained almost the same correct identification ratio as the previous method and we also confirmed that high qualify transformed speech is obtained, which is due to the smoothly evolving spectral contours over time.

Defense Strategy against Multiple Anti-Ship Missiles using Anti-Air Missiles (다수 대함유도탄에 대한 함정의 대공방어유도탄 운용기법 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Wan;Yun, Joong-Sup;Ryoo, Chang-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.354-361
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, an efficient defense strategy of single naval ship using short range anti-air missiles against the threat of multiple anti-ship missiles is suggested. The defense logic is based on the estimated future trajectory of anti-ship missiles by using current radar information. The logic is designed to maximize the range of interception of anti-ship missiles so that the chance of interception can be increased although the prior tries turn out to be fail. Basically, the decision making for the allocation of a defense missile is achieved by comparing the total kill probability and the estimated intercepting point. Performance of the proposed logic is investigated by nonlinear planar numerical simulations.

10-year trajectories of cognitive functions among older adults: Focus on gender difference and spousal loss (70대 고령자의 10년간의 인지기능수준 변화의 유형화: 성별 및 배우자 상실경험을 중심으로)

  • Min, Joohong;Kim, Joohyun
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.147-161
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this research is to investigates 10-year trajectories of cognitive functions among older adults in their 70s to understand changes in cognitive functions as a continuum until very late life. This study also examines differences in trajectories of cognitive functions by gender and by changes in marital status, especially widowhood. Among participants of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing(KLoSA), the sample of this study includes 800 older adults in their 70s during the first study wave (2006) and those who reported their cognitive functions for six consecutive study waves (2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016). The analyses were conducted in two steps. First, we conducted Latent Class Growth Analyses(LCGA) to investigated heterogeneous trajectories of cognitive functions in 10 years. Then, we performed multinomial logistic regression. Three heterogeneous trajectories of cognitive functions were identified. One group of 48.7% of older adults showed high cognitive function at baseline and maintained it over 10 years. Second group of 14.7% of older adults reported low cognitive function scores at baseline and showed continuous decline over time. Third group of 36.6% were showed mid-level cognitive functions and maintained their functions over time. We also found significant gender differences but not significant differences in marital status when we consider both in our model; however, the we found significant differences in changes in marital status when we did not consider gender in the model. The results suggest that the importance of considering dynamics of gender and changes in marital status to understand changes in cognitive functions in later life.

Re-entry Survivability and On-Ground Risk Analysis of Low Earth Orbit Satellite (저궤도 위성의 대기권 재진입 시 생존성 및 피해확률 분석)

  • Jeong, Soon-Woo;Min, Chan-Oh;Lee, Mi-Hyun;Lee, Dae-Woo;Cho, Kyeum-Rae;Bainum, Peter M.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.158-164
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    • 2014
  • LEO(Low Earth Orbit) Satellite which is discarded should be reentered to atmosphere in 25 years by '25 years rule' of IADC(Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) Guidelines. If the parts of satellite are survived from severe aerothermodynamic condition, it could damage to human and property. South Korea operates KOMPSAT-2 and STSAT series as LEO satellite. It is necessary to dispose of them by reentering atmosphere. Therefore this paper analyze the trajectory, survivability, casualty area and casualty probability of a virtual LEO satellite using ESA(European Space Agency)'s DRAMA(Debris Risk Assesment and Mitigation Analysis) tool. As a result, it is noted that casuality area is $15.2742m^2$ and casualty probability is 5.9614E-03 then will be survived 198.831kg.

Hunan Interaction Recognition with a Network of Dynamic Probabilistic Models (동적 확률 모델 네트워크 기반 휴먼 상호 행동 인식)

  • Suk, Heung-Il;Lee, Seong-Whan
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.36 no.11
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    • pp.955-959
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we propose a novel method for analyzing human interactions based on the walking trajectories of human subjects. Our principal assumption is that an interaction episode is composed of meaningful smaller unit interactions, which we call 'sub-interactions.' The whole interactions are represented by an ordered concatenation or a network of sub-interaction models. From the experiments, we could confirm the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method by analyzing the inner workings of an interaction network and comparing the performance with other previous approaches.

Empirical Approach to Price Modeling in Electricity Market based on Stochastic Process (확률과정론적 기반의 전력시장가격모델링 기법)

  • Kang, Dong-Joo;Kim, Bal-Ho H.
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2010
  • As the electric power industry is evolving into competitive market scheme, a new paradigm is required for the operation of market. Traditional dispatch algorithm was built based on the optimization model with an objective function and multiple constraints. Commercial market simulator followed the concept of the microeconomic model used in the dispatch algorithm, which is called as analytic method. On analytic method it is prerequisite to procure the exact data for the simulation. It is not easy anymore for each market participant to access to other participants' financial information while it used to be easy for monopoly decision maker to know all the information needed for the optimal operation. Considering the changing situation, it is required to introduce a new method for estimating the market price. This paper proposes an empirical method based on stochastic processes expected to build a capacity planning and long term contracts.

Assessment of Typhoon Trajectories and Synoptic Pattern Based on Probabilistic Cluster Analysis for the Typhoons Affecting the Korean Peninsula (확률론적 클러스터링 기법을 이용한 한반도 태풍경로 및 종관기후학적 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Ki-Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.385-396
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    • 2014
  • Lately, more frequent typhoons cause extensive flood and wind damage throughout the summer season. In this respect, this study aims to develop a probabilistic clustering model that uses both typhoon genesis location and trajectories. The proposed model was applied to the 197 typhoon events that made landfall in the Korean peninsula from 1951 to 2012. We evaluate the performance of the proposed clustering model through a simulation study based on synthetic typhoon trajectories. The seven distinguished clusters for typhoons affecting Korean peninsula were identified. It was found that most of typhoon genesis originated from a remote position ($10^{\circ}{\sim}20^{\circ}N$, $120^{\circ}{\sim}150^{\circ}E$) near the Equator. Cluster, type B can be regarded as a major track due to the fact that its frequency is approximately about 25.4% out of 197 events and its direct association with strong positive rainfall anomalies.

Hangel Handwriting generation using HMMs (HMM을 이용한 한글 필기 생성)

  • Sin, Bong-Kee;Kim, Jin-Hyung
    • Annual Conference on Human and Language Technology
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    • 1995.10a
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    • pp.152-163
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    • 1995
  • 본 논문에서는 은닉 마르코프 모형(HMM)을 이용하여 사람이 쓴 필기의 통계적 특징을 갖는 글씨를 생성하는 방법에 대해서 기술코자 한다. 온라인 필기처럼 같이 필기 궤적을 시계열 신호로 표현하고, 그 특징을 통계적 모형의 하나인 HMM으로 표현한다. HMM은 시계열 신호에 대응하는 모형 내부 경로와 심볼열의 확률 분포를 표현하는 함수이다. 따라서 최적 경로에서 볼 수 있는 최적 출력 심볼열은 훈련 필기 데이타의 평균적 필기 특징에 해당한다. HMM이 주어졌을 때 HMM에서 최적의 패턴을 해석적으로 구하는 방법은 알려져 있지 않다. 본 논문에서는 동적 프로그래밍 기법을 적용하여 HMM이나 HMM 네트워크 모형에서 필기를 생성하는 방법을 제시하고, 아울러 HMM의 문제점을 지적한다.

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Activity Recognition based on Accelerometer using Self Organizing Maps and Hidden Markov Model (자기 구성 지도와 은닉 마르코프 모델을 이용한 가속도 센서 기반 행동 인식)

  • Hwang, Keum-Sung;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.245-250
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    • 2008
  • 최근 동작 및 행동 인식에 대한 연구가 활발하다. 특히, 센서가 소형화되고 저렴해지면서 그 활용을 위한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 기존의 많은 행동 인식 연구에서 사용되어 온 정적 분류 기술 기반 동작 인식 방법은 연속적인 데이터 분류 기술에 비해 유연성 및 활용성이 부족할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 연속적인 데이터의 패턴 분류 및 인식에 효과적인 확률적 추론 기법인 은닉 마르코프 모델(Hidden Markov Model)과 사전 지식 없이도 자동 학습이 가능하며 의미 깊은 궤적 패턴을 클러스터링하고 효과적인 양자화가 가능한 자기구성지도(Self Organizing Map)를 이용한 동작 인식 기술을 소개한다. 또한, 그 유용성을 입증하기 위해 실제 가속도 센서를 이용하여 다양한 동작에 대한 데이터를 수집하고 분류 성능을 분석 및 평가한다. 실험에서는 실제 가속도 센서를 통해 수집된 숫자를 그리는 동작의 성능 평가 결과를 보이고, 행동 인식기 별 성능과 전체 인식기별 성능을 비교한다.

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On-line Handwritten Numeral Recognition based on Table Top Display (테이블 탑 디스플레이 기반의 온라인 필기 숫자 인식)

  • Kim, Eui-Chul;Kim, Ji-Woong;Kim, Soo-Hyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.9-12
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    • 2007
  • 테이블 탑 디스플레이는 사람에게 친숙한 상호작용의 매개체인 손을 입력장치로 이용하는 일종의 탁자형 멀티 터치스크린이라고 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 환경에서 손가락 제스쳐를 활용하여 필기 숫자를 인식하는 연구를 수행함으로써 테이블 탑 디스플레이에 적합한 필기 숫자 인식 기술을 개발하였고, 이로 인해 추후 진행될 연속 숫자 혹은 특수기호의 성공적인 인식 가능성을 확인하였다. 실험 과정은 테이블 탑 디스플레이의 표면을 통해 입력된 손가락 궤적을 잡음제거, 대표점 추출등의 전처리 과정을 거쳐 16-방향 체인코드로 변환하고, 변환된 체인코드의 학습 및 필기 숫자 인식에 확률 통계적 모델인 은닉 마르코프 모델을 이용하였다. 학습에는 총 300개 필기 숫자 데이터를 이용하였고, 인식 실험에 사용한 별도의 100개의 필기 숫자 데이터에 대해 97%의 정인식율을 보였다.