• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률효과

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Drought frequency analysis for multi-purpose dam inflow using bivariate Copula model (이변량 Copula 모형을 활용한 다목적댐 유입량 가뭄빈도해석)

  • Sung, Jiyoung;Kim, Eunji;Kang, Boosik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.340-340
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    • 2021
  • 가뭄의 특성상 시점과 종점을 명확하게 정의하기 어렵기 때문에 기준수문량을 설정하고 부족량과 지속기간을 정의하는 것이 일반적이다. 대상 수문량은 강우나 유출량을 사용할 수 있지만, 두 성분간 지체와 감쇄효과로 인하여 빈도해석의 결과는 차이를 보일 수 밖에 없어, 사용 목적에 따라 선별적으로 적용해야 한다. 가뭄빈도해석은 강우를 기반으로 지속기간과 심도를 정의하여 빈도를 해석하는 연구가 선행되어왔지만, 기본적으로 강우의 간헐적 발생특성과 체감도의 한계가 문제로 지적되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 댐 유입량의 Run 시계열 특성을 이용하여 다양한 유황을 기준유량으로 활용하여 가뭄의 시점과 종점에 대한 가뭄사상을 추출하고 지속기간과 누적부족량을 계산하여 가뭄빈도해석의 변수로 설정하였다. 두 변수간의 복잡한 상호 관계를 해석하기 위해 Copula 함수를 이용한 이변량 가뭄빈도해석을 진행하였다. 먼저 소양강댐('74-'19) 유입량, 충주댐('86-'19) 유입량을 연구대상지역으로 설정하여, 두 유역의 유입량의 추세분석을 통해 시간의존성을 파악하였다. 유황분석에 사용되는 분위량중 평수량을 기준값으로 사용하여 각 년별 최대 지속기간과 누적부족량을 추출하였다. Copula 가뭄빈도해석을 수행하기 전에 지속기간에는 GEV, 누적 부족량에는 Log-normal 분포를 적용해 단변량 누적확률분포를 계산하여 재현기간을 도출하였다. 이변량 빈도해석에 Clayton Copula 함수를 적용하여 가뭄빈도해석을 진행하였고, Copula 이변량 재현기간과 SDF곡선을 도출하였다. Clayton Copula를 이용한 이변량 가뭄빈도해석의 결과로 소양강댐의 가장 극심한 가뭄은 1996년으로 단변량 재현기간은 지속기간 기준 9.11년, 누적부족량 기준 17.26년, Copula 재현기간은 141.19년 이며 충주댐의 가장 극심한 가뭄은 2014년으로 단변량 재현기간은 지속기간 기준 17.76년, 누적부족량 기준 18.72년, Copula 재현기간은 184.19년으로 단변량 가뭄빈도해석을 통한 재현기간보다 Copula 재현기간이 높은 결과가 도출되었다. Run 시계열을 바탕으로 한 기준유량의 임계값 기준 Event 산정과 Copula를 이용한 빈도해석은 가뭄분석에 이용되는 자료의 상관관계와 분포특성을 재현하는데 효과적인 특징이 있다. 이를 미루어 보아 Copula 함수를 이용한 가뭄빈도해석의 재현기간은 보다 현실적인 재현기간을 도출할 수 있는 것으로 판단된다. 임계값의 조정을 통해 가뭄빈도해석의 변수의 양이 늘어나면, 보다 정확도 높은 재현기간을 도출하여 수문학적 가뭄을 정의할 수 있을 것이라고 사료된다.

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A Study on the Development of a Program for Predicting Successful Welding of Electric Vehicle Batteries Using Laser Welding (레이저 용접을 이용한 전기차 배터리 이종접합 성공 확률 예측 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Cheol-Hwan Kim;Chan-Su Moon;Kwan-Su Lee;Jin-Su Kim;Ae-Ryeong Jo;Bo-Sung Shin
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.44-49
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    • 2023
  • In the global pursuit of carbon neutrality, the rapid increase in the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has led to a corresponding surge in the demand for batteries. To achieve high efficiency in electric vehicles, considerations of weight reduction and battery safety have become crucial factors. Copper and aluminum, both recognized as lightweight materials, can be effectively joined through laser welding. However, due to the distinct physical characteristics of these two materials, the process of joining them poses technical challenges. This study focuses on conducting simulations to identify the optimal laser parameters for welding copper and aluminum, with the aim of streamlining the welding process. Additionally, a Graphic User Interface (GUI) program has been developed using the Python language to visually present the results. Using machine learning image data, this program is anticipated to predict joint success and serve as a guide for safe and efficient laser welding. It is expected to contribute to the safety and efficiency of the electric vehicle battery assembly process.

Proof-of-principle Experimental Study of the CMA-ES Phase-control Algorithm Implemented in a Multichannel Coherent-beam-combining System (다채널 결맞음 빔결합 시스템에서 CMA-ES 위상 제어 알고리즘 구현에 관한 원리증명 실험적 연구)

  • Minsu Yeo;Hansol Kim;Yoonchan Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2024
  • In this study, the feasibility of using the covariance-matrix-adaptation-evolution-strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm in a multichannel coherent-beam-combining (CBC) system was experimentally verified. We constructed a multichannel CBC system utilizing a spatial light modulator (SLM) as a multichannel phase-modulator array, along with a coherent light source at 635 nm, implemented the stochastic-parallel-gradient-descent (SPGD) and CMA-ES algorithms on it, and compared their performances. In particular, we evaluated the characteristics of the CMA-ES and SPGD algorithms in the CBC system in both 16-channel rectangular and 19-channel honeycomb formats. The results of the evaluation showed that the performances of the two algorithms were similar on average, under the given conditions; However, it was verified that under the given conditions the CMA-ES algorithm was able to operate with more stable performance than the SPGD algorithm, as the former had less operational variation with the initial phase setting than the latter. It is emphasized that this study is the first proof-of-principle demonstration of the CMA-ES phase-control algorithm in a multichannel CBC system, to the best of our knowledge, and is expected to be useful for future experimental studies of the effects of additional channel-number increments, or external-phase-noise effects, in multichannel CBC systems based on the CMA-ES phase-control algorithm.

Institutional Factors Affecting Faculty Startups and Their Performance in Korea: A Panel Data Analysis (대학의 기관특성이 교원창업 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 패널 데이터 분석)

  • Jong-woon Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.109-121
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    • 2024
  • This paper adopts a resource-based approach to analyze why some universities have a greater number of faculty startups, and how this impacts on performance, in terms of indictors such as the number of employees and revenue sales. More specifically, we propose 9 hypotheses which link institutional resources to faculty startups and their performance, and compare 5 different groups of university resources for cross-college variation, using data from 134 South Korean four-year universities from 2017 to 2020. We find that the institutional factors impacting on performance of faculty startups differ from other categories of startups. The results show that it is important for universities to provide a more favorable environment, incorporating more flexible personnel policies and accompanying startup support infrastructure, for faculty startups, whilest it is more effective to have more financial resources and intellectual property for other categories of startups. Our findings also indicate that university technology-holding company and technology transfer programs are crucial to increase the number of faculty startups and their performance. Our analysis results have implications for both university and government policy-makers, endeavoring to facilitate higher particaption of professors in startup formation and ultimate commercialization of associated teachnologies.

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Extraction of Nature Pigment with Antioxidant Properties from Sprout Barley - Optimization Using CCD-RSM (새싹보리로부터 항산화기능성을 갖는 천연색소의 추출 - CCD-RSM을 이용한 최적화)

  • Dong Hwan Kim;Seung Bum Lee
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.222-229
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    • 2024
  • The use of low-toxic, hypoallergenic, and environmentally friendly natural pigments has increased. With growing interest in health, research on natural extracts containing beneficial substances for the human body is actively underway. In this study, natural pigments were extracted from sprout barley using a solvent extraction method and CCD-RSM was used to optimize the extraction process. The experiment's independent variables included extraction temperature, alcohol/ultra-pure volume ratio, and extraction time. The response variables were set to achieve a target chromaticity (L = 45, a = -35, b = 45), and to maximize DPPH radical scavenging activity evaluating the antioxidant capacity. The statistical significance of the main effect, interaction effect, and effect on the response value was evaluated and analyzed through the F and P values for the regression equation variables calculated using RSM optimization. Additionally, the reliability of the experiment was also confirmed through the P values of the probability plot graph. The extraction conditions for optimizing the four reaction values are 76.1 vol.% alcohol/ultra pure water volume ratio, an extraction temperature of 52.9 ℃ , and an extraction time of 49.6 min. Under these conditions, the theoretical values of the reaction values are L = 45.4, a = -36.8, and b = 45.0 DPPH radical scavenging activity = 30.9%. When the actual experiment was conducted under these optimal extraction conditions and analyzed, the measured values were L = 46.2, a = -36.1, and b = 48.2, and antioxidant capacity = 31.1% with an average error rate of 2.9%.

The effects of shortened dexamethasone administration on remission rate and potential complications during remission induction treatment for pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (급성림프구성백혈병 환아의 관해유도 치료 중 덱사메타손 투여기간의 단축이 관해유도율 및 합병증 발생에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jae Wook;Lee, Kwang Hee;Kwon, Young Joo;Lee, Dae Hyoung;Chung, Nak Gyun;Jeong, Dae Chul;Cho, Bin;Kim, Hack Ki
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.12
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    • pp.1217-1224
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : Due to its high potency against leukemic blasts, our institution has opted for the use of dexamethasone during acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) remission induction, but in our most recent treatment protocol, CMCPL-2005, we shortened the length of steroid treatment from 4 to 3 weeks. We compared both the rates of remission induction and significant complications observed during induction with CMCPL-2005, with those noted for our previous protocol, CMCPL-2001. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the records of patients diagnosed with ALL from January, 2001 to December, 2006 at the Department of Pediatrics, St. Mary's Hospital, the Catholic University of Korea. Data concerning age, sex, WBC count at diagnosis, immunophenotype, cytogenetic traits, and risk group were collected for each patient. Results of remission induction treatment were compared between the two patient groups. Infection and other major complications resulting from treatment were investigated according to NCI toxicity criteria. Results : A total of 141 and 88 patients received remission induction under CMCPL-2001 and CMCPL-2005 respectively. In the CMCPL-2001 group, 136 (96%) achieved complete remission while 82 (93%) achieved CR in the CMCPL-2005 group. Patients in the CMCPL-2005 group were more likely to undergo remission induction without experiencing major complications. However, with regards to steroid related toxicities such as infection, no significant differences were noted. Conclusion : We shortened the length of steroid administration from four to three weeks, yet found the remission induction rate to be comparable to that of our previous regimen. However, rates of steroid related toxicities such as infectious complications remain unchanged despite shortened exposure to dexamethasone.

Evaluation of the Water Quality Changes in Agricultural Reservoir Covered with Floating Photovoltaic Solar-Tracking Systems (수상 회전식 태양광 발전시설 설치에 따른 농업용 저수지의 수질변화 평가)

  • Lee, Inju;Joo, Jin Chul;Lee, Chang Sin;Kim, Ga Yeong;Woo, Do Young;Kim, Jae Hak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.255-264
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    • 2017
  • To evaluate the water quality changes in agricultural reservoir covered with floating photovoltaic solar-tracking systems, the water quality variations with time and depth were monitored on both six sites for light blocking zones and four sites for light penetration zones after the installation of floating photovoltaic solar-tracking systems in Geumgwang reservoir at Anseong-si, Kyeonggi province. For one year with 16 monitoring events, water quality parameters [i.e., water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), and blue-green algae (BGA)] were monitored at depths of 0.3 m, 1 m, 3 m, and 5 m, while chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were monitored at depths of 0.3 m. Statistically, the difference in all water quality parameters was not significantly different (p > 0.05) at the level of significance of 0.05. Based on these results, the water quality data from light blocking zones (site 1~6) and light penetration zones (site 7~10) were clustered, and were compared with time and depth. As a result, the difference in water temperature, pH, DO, COD, TN, TP, Chl-a, and BGA between light blocking zones and light penetration zones was not significant (p > 0.05) with different time and depth. For Chl-a and BGA, some data from light blocking zones greater than light penetration zones were temporary observed due to the severe drought, low water storage rate, and over growth of periphyton. However, this temporal phenomenon did not impact the water quality. Considering the small water surface area (${\leq}0.5%$) covered by floating photovoltaic solar-tracking systems, the mixing effect of whole Geumgwang reservoir caused by Ekman current and continuous discharge were more dominant than the effect of reduced solar irradiance. Further study is warranted to monitor the changes in water quality and aquatic ecosystems with greater water surface area covered by floating photovoltaic solar-tracking systems for a long time.

The Impact of Milk Production Level on Profit Traits of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 생산수준이 젖소의 수익형질에 미치는 효과)

  • Do, Changhee;Park, Suhun;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Yunho;Choi, Taejeong;Park, Byungho;Yun, Hobaek;Lee, Donghee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2013
  • Data including 1,372,050 milk records pertaining to 438,019 cows from 1983 to 2011 collected during performance tests conducted by the National Livestock Cooperative Dairy Improvement Center were used to calculate milk income and profit of individuals and investigate the effects of production levels of early lactation (parity 1 and 2, respectively). Individuals with a moderate level of early lactation stayed longer in herds. Among parity 1, the 9,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactations than the overall mean of 3.13. The 7,000 kg or lower and 10,000 kg or higher groups had lower mean life time milking days than the overall mean of 1,076.8 days. Standard deviations of lifetime traits tended to decrease as production levels increased. For parity 2, the 11,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactation than the overall mean of 3.43. The lifetime milking days was highest in the 12,000 kg group (1,212.0 days), and generally smaller in the lower groups. Profit increased as the production level of groups increased for both parity 1 and 2. In groups with low production levels, profit of parity 1 was higher than that of parity 2, while the reverse was true in groups with high production levels. These results suggest that individuals in the low production groups had a greater likelihood to be culled due to reproductive or other problems. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction of lifetime profit of individuals with a milk yield of 305 days seems to be higher for parity 2 than parity 1; therefore, it is desirable to predict lifetime profit using the 305d milk yield of parity 2. In conclusion, breeding goals are based on many factors in functions for the estimation of profit; however, production levels during early lactation (parity 1 and 2) can be used as indicators of profit to extend profitability.

A Comparison of Discriminating Powers Between 14 Microsatellite markers and 60 SNP Markers Applicable to the Cattle Identification Test (소 동일성 검사에 적용 가능한 14 Microsatellite marker와 60 Single Nucleotide Polymorphism marker 간의 판별 효율성 비교)

  • Lim, Hyun-Tae;Seo, Bo-Yeong;Jung, Eun-Ji;Yoo, Chae-Kyoung;Yoon, Du-Hak;Jeon, Jin-Tae
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.353-360
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    • 2009
  • When 14 microsatellite (MS) markers were applied in the identifying test for 480 Hanwoo, the discriminating power was estimated as $3.43{\times}10^{-27}$ based on the assumption of a random mating group (PI). This rate is 1,000 times higher than that of 60 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. On the other hand, the power of the 60 SNP markers was estimated as $4.69{\times}10^{-20}$ and $8.02{\times}10^{-12}$ on the assumption of a half-sib mating group ($PI_{half-sibs}$) and a full-sib mating group ($PI_{sibs}$), respectively. These powers were 10 times and 10,000 times higher than those of the 14 MS markers. The results indicated that the total number of alleles (MS vs SNP = 146 vs 120) acted as a key factor for the discriminating power in a random mating population, and the total number of markers (MS vs SNP = 14 vs 60) was a dominant influence on the power in half-sib and full-sib populations. In the Hanwoo population, in which it was assumed that the entire population is the enormous half-sib group formed by the absolute genetic contribution of a few nuclear bulls, there will be only a 10 times difference in the discriminating power between the 14 MS markers and the 60 SNP makers. However, the probability of not excluding a candidate parent pair from the parentage of an arbitrary offspring, given that only the genotype of the offspring ($PNE_{pp}$) was 1,000 times higher as shown by the 14 MS markers than that by the 60 SNP markers. The strong points of SNP makers are the stability of the variation (low mutation rate) and automation of high-throughput genotyping. In order to apply these merits for the practical and constant Hanwoo identity test, research and development are required to set a cost-effective platform and produce a homemade apparatus for SNP genotyping.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.