• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 의존성 분석

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A Fuzzy-based Risk Assessment using Uncertainty Model (불확실성 모델을 사용한 퍼지 위험도분석)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Seo Jong-Won;Jung Pyung-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.473-476
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a systematic risk assessment procedure with uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed methods with uncertainty modeling is able to apply to all the construction projects inherent in lots of uncertain risk events. The fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment to effectively handle the vague and dynamic phenomenon of an event Therefore, the fuzzy-based risk assessment is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

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A Dynamic Study of Women's Labor Market Transitions: Career Interruptions and its Determinants (여성의 동태적 노동공급 - 취업연속성과 첫 노동시장 퇴출행태를 중심으로 -)

  • 김영옥
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.5-40
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    • 2002
  • Using detailed data of women's work history, this study analyses the transition process between employment and non-employment over the life history in order to identity individual and structural determinants in the processes. Korean women comprise very heterogeneous groups in terms of work continuity: one group having a continuous work history and another having an interrupted work experience. While 4.0% of total women have stayed in the labor market since leaving school, 17.3% have not worked outside at all and remaining 87.9% have experienced into and out of the labor market at least once. On the average, the cumulated time of employment per woman is 8.2 years and the cumulated time of unemployment is 13.1 years. Thus Korean women work a total of only 38.5% of their whole lifetime after leaving school. We can conclude that the increase of the employment rate of married women in Korea since the 1970s has been due to the increase of the new entrants with short or little working careers into the labor market, not to the increase of women's work continuity on the whole. A women's educational achievement does not seem to be positively related to employment duration, contrary to the suggestion of the human capital theory, Rather, family variables, especially the existence of the child under 6 yens old, is a more significant determining factor for an individual's exit from employment. And there is little difference among different age cohorts which implies little improvement in the employment continuity of younger women. This study also documents the importance of structural variables, such as the type of occupation, as significant determining factors for the hazard rate. Specially women with professional jobs tend to stay longer in the labor market. Therefore, women's entry into more professional occupations is expected to contribute to the continuity of employment. Our results also show that duration-dependence is not spurious. When unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, the negative relation between the rate from employment and the duration of employment does not disappear.

A Study for the Optimum Joint Set Orientations and Its Application to Slope Analysis (사면해석을 위한 최적의 절리군 대표방향성 도출 및 활용기법 연구)

  • Cho, Taechin
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.343-357
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    • 2018
  • Algorithm which can analyze the slope failure behavior utilizing the comprehensive information of the dense point of joint poles and the joint set orientations, both of which are obtained statistically, and the defect pattern of pole distribution has been developed. This method overcomes the potential incorrectness of the hemispheric projection method utilizing the joint set orientations only and also enhances the reliability of slope failure analysis. To this end a method capable of calculating the joint dispersion index directly from the joint pole distribution, instead of contour map, has been devised. The representative orientations for the slope failure analysis has been determined by considering the number and orientations of cone angle-dependent joint sets as well as the joint dispersion index. By engaging these representative orientations to the hemispheric projection analysis more reliable slope failure examination has been carried out. Sensitivity analysis for the potentially unstable slope of plane failure mode has been performed. Significance of joint strength index and the external seismic loading on the slope stability has been fully analyzed.

$Si_3N_4$/HfAlO 터널 절연막을 이용한 나노 부유 커패시터의 전기적 특성 연구

  • Lee, Dong-Uk;Lee, Hyo-Jun;Kim, Dong-Uk;Kim, Eun-Gyu;Yu, Hui-Uk;Jo, Won-Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.279-279
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    • 2011
  • 나노 입자를 이용한 비휘발성 메모리 소자의 전기적 특성 향상을 위하여 일함수가 Si 보다 큰 금속, 금속산화물, 금속 실리사이드 나노입자를 이용한 다양한 형태의 메모리 구조가 제안되어져 왔다.[1] 특히 이와 같은 나노 부유 게이트 구조에서 터널 절연막의 구조를 소자의 동작 속도를 결정하는데 이는 터널링 되어 주입되는 전자의 확률에 의존하기 때문이다. 양자 우물에 국한된 전하가 누설되지 않으면서 주입되는 전자의 터널링 확률을 증가시키기 위하여, dielectric constant 와 barrier height를 고려한 다양한 구조의 터널 절연막의 형태가 제안 되었다.[2-3] 특히 낮은 전계에서도 높은 터널링 확률은 메모리 소자의 동작 속도를 향상시킬 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 n형 Si 기판위에 Si3N4 및 HfAlO를 각각 1.5 nm 및 3 nm 로 atomic layer deposition 방법으로 증착하였으며 3~5 nm 지름을 가지는 $TiSi_2$$WSi_2$ 나노 입자를 형성한 후 컨트롤 절연막인 $SiO_2$를 ultra-high vacuum sputtering을 사용하여 20 nm 두께로 형성 하였다. 마지막으로 $200{\mu}m$ 지름을 가지는 Al 전극을 200 nm 두께로 형성하여 나노 부유 게이트 커패시터를 제작하였다. 제작된 소자는 Agilent E4980A precision LCR meter 및 HP 4156A precision semiconductor parameter analyzer 를 사용하여 전기용량-전압 및 전류-전압 특성분석을 하여 전하저장 특성 및 제작된 소자의 터널링 특성을 확인 하여 본 연구를 통하여 제작된 나노 부유 게이트 커패시터 구조가 메모리 소자응용이 가능함을 확인하였다.

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A Study on Comparative Evaluation of Application of Software Reliability Model Dependent on Various Hazard Functions (다양한 위험함수에 의존한 소프트웨어 신뢰모형의 적용에 대한 비교 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.800-806
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    • 2018
  • Software efficiency is the probability of failure free use in operating environments, and is the most fundamental factor affecting software system stability. The malfunction of the computer system used in the information technology field may cause a significant loss in the related industry. Therefore, in this study, we analyze the attributes of software reliability models that depend on various hazard functions based on finite fault NHPP model with software failure time data. The hazard function pattern of proposed model is constant for the Goel-Okumoto model, and the Minimax and Rayleigh models follow the incremental pattern, but the hazard function increase value of the Minimax model is smaller than that of the Rayleigh model and the Goel-Okumoto model. Also, the Minimax model was relatively efficient because the true value error of the mean value function m(t) and the mean square error (MSE) of the Minimax model were smaller than those of the Rayleigh and Goel-Okumoto models. The results of this study are expected to be useful for software developers as basic information about the hazard function.

Security Analysis of Block Ciphers Designed with BOGI Strategy against Differential Attacks (BOGI 전략으로 설계된 블록 암호의 차분 공격에 대한 안전성 분석)

  • Lee, Sanghyeop;Kim, Seonggyeom;Hong, Deukjo;Sung, Jaechul;Hong, Seokhie
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.1259-1270
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    • 2019
  • The upper bound of differential characteristic probability is mainly used to determine the number of rounds when constructing a block cipher. As the number of rounds affects the performance of block cipher, it is critical to evaluate the tight upper bound in the constructing process. In order to calculate the upper bound of differential characteristic probability, the previous searching methods for minimum number of active S-boxes constructed constraint equations for non-linear operations and linear operations, independently. However, in the case of BOGI design strategy, where linear operation is dependent on non-linear operation, the previous methods may present the less tight upper bound. In this paper, we exploit the properties of BOGI strategy to propose a new method to evaluate a tighter upper bound of differential characteristic probability than previous ones. Additionally, we mathematically proved the validity of our method. Our proposed method was applied to GIFT-64 and GIFT-128, which are based on BOGI strategy, and the upper bounds of differential characteristic probability were derived until 9 round. Previously, the upper bounds of differential characteristic probability for 7-round GIFT-64 and 9-round GIFT-128 were 2-18.395 and 2-26.885, respectively, while we show that the upper bounds of differential characteristic probability are more tight as 2-19.81 and 2-28.3, respectively.

Design and Analsis of a high speed switching system with two priority (두개의 우선 순위를 가지는 고속 스윗칭 시스템의 설계 및 성능 분석)

  • Hong, Yo-Hun;Choe, Jin-Sik;Jeon, Mun-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.8C no.6
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    • pp.793-805
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    • 2001
  • In the recent priority system, high-priority packet will be served first and low-priority packet will be served when there isn\`t any high-priority packet in the system. By the way, even high-priority packet can be blocked by HOL (Head of Line) contention in the input queueing System. Therefore, the whole switching performance can be improved by serving low-priority packet even though high-priority packet is blocked. In this paper, we study the performance of preemptive priority in an input queueing switch for high speed switch system. The analysis of this switching system is taken into account of the influence of priority scheduling and the window scheme for head-of-line contention. We derive queue length distribution, delay and maximum throughput for the switching system based on these control schemes. Because of the service dependencies between inputs, an exact analysis of this switching system is intractable. Consequently, we provide an approximate analysis based on some independence assumption and the flow conservation rule. We use an equivalent queueing system to estimate the service capability seen by each input. In case of the preemptive priority policy without considering a window scheme, we extend the approximation technique used by Chen and Guerin [1] to obtain more accurate results. Moreover, we also propose newly a window scheme that is appropriate for the preemptive priority switching system in view of implementation and operation. It can improve the total system throughput and delay performance of low priority packets. We also analyze this window scheme using an equivalent queueing system and compare the performance results with that without the window scheme. Numerical results are compared with simulations.

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Markov Chain Properties of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies at the Southeastern Coast of Korea (한국 남동연안 이상수온의 마르코프 연쇄 성질)

  • Kang, Yong-Q.;Gong, Yeong
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 1987
  • The Markov chain properties of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, namely, the dependency of the monthly SST anomaly on that of the previous month, are studied based on the SST data for 28years(1957-1984) at 5 stations in the southeastern coast of Korea. Wi classified the monthly SST anomalies at each station into the low, the normal and the high state, and computed transition probabilities between SST anomalies of two successive months The standard deviation of SST anomalies at each station is used as a reference for the classification of SST anomalies into 3states. The transition probability of the normal state to remain in the same state is about 0.8. The transition probability of the high or the low states to remain in the same state is about one half. The SST anomalies have almost no probability to transit from the high (the low) state to the low (the high) state. Statistical tests show that the Markov chain properties of SST anomalies are stationary in tine and homogeneous in space. The multi-step Markov chain analysis shows that the 'memory' of the SST anomalies at the coastal stations remains about 3 months.

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Modeling and Analysis of Wireless Lan Traffic (무선 랜 트래픽의 분석과 모델링)

  • Yamkhin, Dashdorj;Lee, Seong-Jin;Won, You-Jip
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.8B
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    • pp.667-680
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    • 2008
  • In this work, we present the results of our empirical study on 802.11 wireless LAN network traffic. We collect the packet trace from existing campus wireless LAN infra-structure. We analyzed four different data sets: aggregate traffic, upstream traffic, downstream traffic, tcp only packet trace from aggregate traffic. We analyze the time series aspect of underlying traffic (byte count process and packet count process), marginal distribution of time series, and packet size distribution. We found that in all four data sets there exist long-range dependent property in byte count and packet count process. Inter-arrival distribution is well fitted with Pareto distribution. Upstream traffic, i.e. from the user to Internet, exhibits significant difference in its packet size distribution from the rests. Average packet size of upstream traffic is 151.7 byte while average packet size of the rest of the data sets are all greater than 260 bytes. Packets with full data payloads constitutes 3% and 10% in upstream traffic and the downstream traffic, respectively. Despite the significant difference in packet size distribution, all four data sets have similar Hurst values. The Hurst alone does not properly explain the stochastic characteristics of the underlying traffic. We model the underlying traffic using fractional-ARIMA (FARIMA) and fractional Gaussian Noise (FGN). While the fractional Gaussian Noise based method is computationally more efficient, FARIMA exhibits superior performance in accurately modeling the underlying traffic.

A Study on the Dose Assessment Methodology Using the Probabilistic Characteristics of TL Element Response (확률분포 특성을 이용한 열형광선량계의 선량평가방법에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Dae-Hyung;Oh, Jang-Jin;Han, Seung-Jae;Na, Seong-Ho;Hwang, Won-Guk;Lee, Won-Keun
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 1998
  • Characteristics of element responses of Panasonic UD802 personnel dosimeters in the X, ${\beta}$, ${\gamma}$, ${\gamma}/X$, ${\gamma}/{\beta}$ and ${\gamma}$/neutron mixed fields were assessed. A dose-response algorithm has been developed to decide the high probability of a radiation type and energy by using the distribution in all six ratios of the multi-element TLD. To calculate the 4-element response factors and ratios between the elements of the Panasonic TLDs in the X, $\beta$, and $\gamma$ radiation fields, Panasonic’s UD802 TLDs were irradiated with KINS’s reference irradiation facility. In the photon radiation field, this study confirms that element-3 (E3) and element-4 (E4) of the Panasonic TLDs show energy dependent both in low- and intermediate-energy range, while element-1 (E1) and element-2 (E2) show little energy dependency in the entire whole range. The algorithm, which was developed in this study, was applied to the Panasonic personnel dosimetry system with UD716AGL reader and UD802 TLDs. Performance tests of the algorithm developed was conducted according to the standards and criteria recommended in the ANSI N13.11. The sum of biases and standard deviations was less than 0.232. The values of biases and standard deviations are distributed within a triangle of a lateral value of 0.3 in the ordinate and abscissa, With the above algorithm, Panasonic TLDs satisfactorily perform optimum dose assessment even under an abnormal response of the TLD elements to the energy imparted. This algorithm can be applied to a more rigorous dose assessment by distinguishing an unexpected dose from the planned dose for the most practical purposes, and is useful in conducting an effective personnel dose control program.

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