• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.327-344
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• 2011

This study is the first step for us toward improving high school students' capability of statistical inferences, such as obtaining and interpreting the confidence interval on the population mean that is currently learned in high school. We suggest 5 underlying concepts of 'discretion of contingency and inevitability', 'discretion of induction and deduction', 'likelihood principle', 'variability of a statistic' and 'statistical model', those are necessary to appreciate statistical inferences as a reliable arguing tools in spite of its occasional erroneous conclusions. We assume those 5 concepts above are to be gradually developing in their school periods and Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 were analyzed. Followings were found. For the right choice of solving methodology of the given problem, no elementary textbook but a few high school textbooks describe its difference between the contingent circumstance and the inevitable one. Formal definitions of population and sample are not introduced until high school grades, so that the developments of critical thoughts on the reliability of inductive reasoning could not be observed. On the contrary of it, strong emphasis lies on the calculation stuff of the sample data without any inference on the population prospective based upon the sample. Instead of the representative properties of a random sample, more emphasis lies on how to get a random sample. As a result of it, the fact that 'the random variability of the value of a statistic which is calculated from the sample ought to be inherited from the randomness of the sample' could neither be noticed nor be explained as well. No comparative descriptions on the statistical inferences against the mathematical(deductive) reasoning were found. Few explanations on the likelihood principle and its probabilistic applications in accordance with students' cognitive developmental growth were found. It was hard to find the explanation of a random variability of statistics and on the existence of its sampling distribution. It is worthwhile to explain it because, nevertheless obtaining the sampling distribution of a particular statistic, like a sample mean, is a very difficult job, mere noticing its existence may cause a drastic change of understanding in a statistical inference.

• Water for future
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.27-36
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• 1972

This thesis is the study of the rainfall probability depth in the major areas of Korea, such as Seoul, Pusan and Taegu. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the rainfall in connection with the safe planning of the hydraulic structures and with the project life. The methodology used in this paper is the statistical treatment of the rainfall data in the above three areas. The scheme of the paper is the following. 1. The complementation of the rainfall data We tried to select the maximm values among the values gained by the three methods: Fourier Series Method, Trend Diagram Method and Mean Value Method. By the selection of the maximum values we tried to complement the rainfall data lacking in order to prevent calamities. 2. The statistical treatment of the data The data are ordered by the small numbers, transformed into log, $\sqrt{}, \sqrt[3]{}, \sqrt[4], and$\sqrt[5], and calculated their statistical values through the electronic computer. 3. The examination of the distribution types and the determination of the optimum distibution types By the $x^2-Test$ the distribution types of rainfall data are examined, and rejected some part of the data in order to seek the normal rainfall distribution types. In this way, the optimum distribution types are determined. 4. The computation of rainfall probability depth in the safety project life We tried to study the interrelation between the return period and the safety project life, and to present the rainfall probability depth of the safety project life. In conclusion we set up the optimum distribution types of the rainfall depths, formulated the optimum distributions, and presented the chart of the rainfall probability depth about the factor of safety and the project life.ct life.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.197-205
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• 2020

Korean language has the characteristics that the pronunciation of phoneme units such as vowels and consonants are fixed and the pronunciation associated with a notation does not change, so that foreign learners can approach rather easily Korean language. However, when one pronounces words, phrases, or sentences, the pronunciation changes in a manner of a wide variation and complexity at the boundaries of syllables, and the association of notation and pronunciation does not hold any more. Consequently, it is very difficult for foreign learners to study Korean standard pronunciations. Despite these difficulties, it is believed that systematic analysis of pronunciation errors for Korean words is possible according to the advantageous observations that the relationship between Korean notations and pronunciations can be described as a set of firm rules without exceptions unlike other languages including English. In this paper, we propose a visualization framework which shows the differences between standard pronunciations and erratic ones as quantitative measures on the computer screen. Previous researches only show color representation and 3D graphics of speech properties, or an animated view of changing shapes of lips and mouth cavity. Moreover, the features used in the analysis are only point data such as the average of a speech range. In this study, we propose a method which can directly use the time-series data instead of using summary or distorted data. This was realized by using the deep learning-based technique which combines Self-organizing map, variational autoencoder model, and Markov model, and we achieved a superior performance enhancement compared to the method using the point-based data.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.5 no.11
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• pp.527-534
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• 2016

The emergent information society requires the talent for creative thinking based on problem-solving skills and comprehensive thinking rather than simple memorization. Therefore, the Korean curriculum has also changed into the direction of the creative thinking through increasing short-answer questions that can determine the overall thinking of the students. However, their scoring results are a little bit inconsistency because scoring short-answer questions depends on the subjective scoring of human raters. In order to alleviate this point, an automated scoring system using a machine learning has been used as a scoring tool in overseas. Linguistically, Korean and English is totally different in the structure of the sentences. Thus, the automated scoring system used in English cannot be applied to Korean. In this paper, we introduce an automated scoring system for Korean short-answer questions using predictability and unanimity. We also verify the practicality of the automatic scoring system through the correlation coefficient between the results of the automated scoring system and those of human raters. In the experiment of this paper, the proposed system is evaluated for constructed-response items of Korean language, social studies, and science in the National Assessment of Educational Achievement. The analysis was used Pearson correlation coefficients and Kappa coefficient. Results of the experiment had showed a strong positive correlation with all the correlation coefficients at 0.7 or higher. Thus, the scoring results of the proposed scoring system are similar to those of human raters. Therefore, the automated scoring system should be found to be useful as a scoring tool.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.115-123
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• 2017

Dispite the fact that our military has outwardly made notable accomplishments such as the development of weapon systems like tanks, self-propelled artillery, and missiles, there has been a lack of attention to producing weapon effectiveness data that suggests a standard as to what effects the developed weapons will demonstrate on the battlefield. For such reasons, most of the weapon effectiveness data utilizes JMEM data introduced by the United States and as for the rest of the data that cannot be acquired, respective branches create and utilize their own data through research. This research aims to develop a reliable methodology that can meet the requirements of the requesting branches in a short span of time and at a low cost by studying the existing weapon effectiveness data production methodologies such as that of JMEM. As a result I have developed a method that calculates the vulnerable area and the probability of kill of the weapon system that one wants to calculate by applying statistical technique and simulation technique based on weapon effectiveness data of similar weapon systems in JMEM and live test data.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.109-116
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• 1988

The strength and load of structure are varied with the Passage of time, and become a process of probability. It is possible to estimate the reliability from the relation between strength and load. Considering the safety, It is reasonable to estimate allowable stress from the safety factor based on the reliability. In this study, the method to estimate probability of fracture, which is index of reliability for rail subjeict to long term fatigue load were examined. In estimation of reliablity it is meaningless to evaluate numerical value especially this difficult case estimating parameter of random variable. To overcome this problem, conventional design method estimating relative reliability were proposed. In this study the Cornell method were examined. The uncertainity of random variale, ie coefficient of variation which is the index of variation of strength and load were considered. The effect of uncertainity related to probability of fracture, and safety factor based on reliability were examined. The results of this study are followed. The reliability of weld metal were influenced by variation of strength more then load, and base metal were influenced by load. It is confirmed that the allowable stress range calculating with factor of safety based an reliability is conservative.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.234-243
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• 1992

Fatigue crack initiation life has a wide scatter and this makes the fatigue design of structural members difficult. In order to make the fatigue life distribution clear, it is required to prepare a large number of specimens and repeat the fatigue tests under the same loading condition. Such fatigue tests usually take much time and cost. In this study, a fatigue testing method using a multi-notched test specimen for the purpose of estimating the distribution function of fatigue crack initiation life by small number of fatigue tests is used. The purpose of this study is to verify the above fatigue testing method of a multi-notched specimen by using Bayesian reliability analysis, Least square method and Skewness method for the determination of unknown Weibull parameters. The multi-notched specimen is a specimen in which several tens of statistically identical notches are prepared.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.991-993
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• 2005

데스크탑 그리드(Desktop Grid) 환경에서는 자원 제공자인 데스크탑의 자율적 연산 참여와 탈퇴를 허용하기 때문에 기존 데스크탑 그리드 시스템들은 연산 도중 잦은 중단으로 인해 연산의 완료 시간이 지연되고, 연산 수행의 신뢰성이 저하되며 연산의 완료를 보장하지 못하고 있다. 기존의 데스크탑 그리드 시스템들은 이러한 데스크탑의 동적 특성을 반영하지 못하고 있을 뿐만 아니라 데스크탑의 연산 수행 양식을 고려하지 않아 시스템의 안정성과 성능이 저하되었다. 신뢰성 높은 연산 수행을 지원하고, 데스크탑의 비예측적 연산 수행 속성을 극복하기 위해서는 데스크탑의 동적인 특성인 휘발성(volatility)을 고려한 스케줄링이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 휴리스틱 접근을 통해 동적으로 가변하는 데스크탑의 상태를 보다 정확하게 모델링 하는 가용성 기반 마코브 작업 스케줄링 기법을 제안한다. 제안 기법은 데스크탑의 가용성을 기반으로 과거 연산 수행에 대한 패턴을 확률 모델링하여 미래 연산 수행 유형을 예측함으로써 연산 수행 도중의 불안정한 자원 제공 현상을 완화시키며 안정적인 스케줄링을 지원하여 시스템의 신뢰성과 성능을 향상시킨다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1900-1904
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• 2007

지금까지 수공구조물의 설계와 기존 시설의 안전도를 평가시 수문, 수리 및 경제학적 함수들에서 발생하는 불확실성을 설명하기 위하여 안전율 또는 여유고를 증가시키거나 이들 정보의 양과 질을 증가시켜 데이터베이스를 확장하고 측정오차를 최소화시키며, 전통적인 통계해석을 적용하였다. 공공의 안전을 확보하기 위하여 설계과정에 안전율 또는 여유고가 도입되었으나 이것은 단순히 보다 높은 재현기간의 적용을 의미하며, 수문현상이 가지는 추계학적 특성보다 확정론적인 근거로부터 안전설계 개념이 개발되었다. 수자원 계획시 고려되는 부하와 저항은 확정론적인 고정치가 아니라 시간에 따라 변하고 동적이며, 무작위적이므로 확률 변수로서 고려되어야 한다. 이에 따라 최근 수자원 계획과정에서 불확실성 해석에 의한 위험도 분석 개념이 도입되고 있으며, 특히 이상기후 및 집중호우의 빈발, 급격한 도시화로 인한 유출양상의 변화 등으로 급증하고 있는 훙수피해를 감안할 때 설계빈도의 상향조정과 같은 확정론적인 방법보다는 매개변수 또는 함수의 불확실성을 고려한 위험도 해석의 필요성이 더욱 증대되고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 수자원 계획시 입력자료 및 매개변수의 불확실성과 불확실성의 분리를 고려한 홍수량의 산정 및 각 매개변수의 영향을 평가하여 홍수위험도 해석에 있어서 모델 매개변수의 영향 규명과 처리방안을 제시하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 1997.04a
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• pp.45-60
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• 1997

본연구의 목적은 1994년과 1995년의 연구 결과를 토대로 고속국도 교통류의 차량 추종, 차선 변경 특성을 현장 조사 자료를 통하여 분석·규명하고, 국내 고속도로의 교통류 특성을 반영할 수 있는 한국형 고속국도 모의실험 모형을 개발하는데 있다. 본 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. ▶ 국내 고속국도 교통류의 차두시간, 속도, 차량군의 크기, 차선 변 경, 중차량의 영향 등의 특성을 조사·분석하여 관련 매개변수와 모형식을 도출하였다. ▶ 차량 생성 모형은 개별 차량의 차두시간, 속도를 이용하여 구축하였으며, 중차량의 구성 비 율에 따른 속도 변화를 연구하여 그 결과를 모형 구축에 응용하였다. ▶ 차량 추종 모형은 1995년 연구에서 검증된 PITT-KLD 모형에 기반을 두었으며, 현장 실측 자료를 분석하여 차량 추종과 관련된 매개변수들을 설정하였다. ▶ 차선 변경 모형은 기본적으로 간격 수락 모형을 이용하였으며, 차선 변경시 임계 간격을 국내 운전자들의 유형에 따라 10가지로 설 정하였다. 차선 변경 확률은 현장 조사 자료를 기초로 한 경험적 모형을 구축하여 선정하였 으며, 마코프 연쇄 기법과도 비교·검토하였다. ▶ 개발된 모의실험 모형을 비교·평가하기 위 해 고속국도 합류부의 현장 조사 자료와 모의실험 모형을 비교·평가한 결과, 합류 이전 단 계에서는 실측치와 모형의 통계량이 어느 정도 유사한 양상을 보이지만 합류 이후 단계에서 는 차이를 나타내고 잇다.