• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적확산

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Simulation Study on Search Strategies for the Reconnaissance Drone (정찰 드론의 탐색 경로에 대한 시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Choi, Min Woo;Cho, Namsuk
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.23-39
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    • 2019
  • The use of drone-bots is demanded in times regarding the reduction of military force, the spread of the life-oriented thought, and the use of innovative technology in the defense through the fourth industrial revolution. Especially, the drone's surveillance and reconnaissance are expected to play a big role in the future battlefield. However, there are not many cases in which the concept of operation is studied scientifically. In this study, We propose search algorithms for reconnaissance drone through simulation analysis. In the simulation, the drone and target move linearly in continuous space, and the target is moving adopting the Random-walk concept to reflect the uncertainty of the battlefield. The research investigates the effectiveness of existing search methods such as Parallel and Spiral Search. We analyze the probabilistic analysis for detector radius and the speed on the detection probability. In particular, the new detection algorithms those can be used when an enemy moves toward a specific goal, PS (Probability Search) and HS (Hamiltonian Search), are introduced. The results of this study will have applicability on planning the path for the reconnaissance operations using drone-bots.

Time Dependent Evaluation of Corrosion Free Life of Concrete Tunnel Structures Based on the Reliability Theory (해저 콘크리트 구조물의 신뢰성 이론에 의한 시간 의존적 내구수명 평가)

  • Pack, Seung Woo;Jung, Min Sun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.142-154
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    • 2011
  • This study predicted the probability of corrosion initiation of reinforced concrete tunnel boxes structures using the Monte Carlo Simulation. For the inner wall and outer wall in the tunnel boxes, exposed to airborne chloride ion and seawater directly respectively, statistical values of parameters like diffusion coefficient D, surface chloride content $C_s$, cover depth c, and the chloride threshold level $C_{lim}$ were examined from experiment or literature review. Their average values accounted for $3.77{\times}10^{-12}m^2/s$, 3.0% by weight of cement, 94.7mm and 45.5mm for outer wall and inner wall, respectively, and 0.69% by weight of cement for D, $C_s$, c, and $C_{lim}$, respectively. With these parametric values, the distribution of chloride contents at rebar with time and the probability of corrosion initiation of the tunnel boxes, inner wall and outer wall, was examined by considering time dependency of chloride transport. From the examination, the histogram of chloride contents at rebar is closer to a gamma distribution, and the mean value increases with time, while the coefficient of variance decreases with time. It was found that the probability of corrosion initiation and the time to corrosion were dependent on the time dependency of chloride transport. Time independent model predicted time to corrosion initiation of inner wall and outer wall as 8 and 12 years, respectively, while 178 and 283 years of time to corrosion was calculated by time dependent model for inner wall and outer wall, respectively. For time independent model, the probability of corrosion at 100 years of exposure for inner wall and outer wall was ranged 59.5 and 95.5%, respectively, while time dependent model indicated 2.9 and 0.2% of the probability corrosion, respectively. Finally, impact of $C_{lim}$, including values specified in current codes, on the probability of corrosion initiation and corrosion free life is discussed.

A Study on the Water Circulation Enhancement inside Harbor Utilizing Wave Energy (파랑에너지를 이용한 항내 해수순환증진에 대한 연구)

  • 오병철;전인식;정태성;이달수
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.209-221
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    • 2002
  • In the present paper, a method which enhances the circulation of harbor waters by using wave energy was investigated. The overflow levee was selected as a coastal structure helping the harbor circulation, and was applied to Jeju-outer-port site so as to estimate its effectiveness quantitatively in probabilistic point of view. It was assumed that sea water influx rate through the overflow levee into the harbor depended upon wave height and tidal level and a functional relationship among them was calculated using the results of hydraulic experiment. The probability distribution of water influx could be obtained from hindcasted wave data and measured tidal elevations at Jeju harbor. The Gamma distribution was appeared to best fit the estimated influx distribution, and the optimal location of the levee was discussed. Finally, water quality purification effect was investigated by computing the contaminant material dispersion according to whether the levee was or not.

A study on MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea using Bayesian negative binomial branching processes (베이지안 음이항 분기과정을 이용한 한국 메르스 발생 연구)

  • Park, Yuha;Choi, Ilsu
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.153-161
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    • 2017
  • Branching processes which is used for epidemic dispersion as stochastic process model have advantages to estimate parameters by real data. We have to estimate both mean and dispersion parameter in order to use the negative binomial distribution as an offspring distribution on branching processes. In existing studies on biology and epidemiology, it is estimated using maximum-likelihood methods. However, for most of epidemic data, it is hard to get the best precision of maximum-likelihood estimator. We suggest a Bayesian inference that have good properties of statistics for small-sample. After estimating dispersion parameter we modelled the posterior distribution for 2015 Korea MERS cases. As the result, we found that the estimated dispersion parameter is relatively stable no matter how we assume prior distribution. We also computed extinction probabilities on branching processes using estimated dispersion parameters.

Error Resilience Coding Techniques for Mobile Videotelephony (모바일 화상통신을 위한 오류강인 부호화 기법)

  • Suh, Jae-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.303-310
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    • 2007
  • Compressed video bitstreams are intended for real-time transmission over communication networks. Because video compression algorithms eliminate the temporal, spatial, and statistical redundancies, the coded video bitstreams are very sensitive to transmission errors. We propose an error resilient video coding technique to limit the effect of error propagation in low bit-rate video coding. The success of error resilient coding techniques relies on how accurately the transmission errors can be detected. To detect the transmission error, we propose a very simple error detection technique based on data hiding Next, we conceal the corrupted MB data using intra MB refresh and motion compensation with the estimated motion vector and compare the simulation results. This method will be useful in video communication in error Prone environment such as WCDMA networks.

Probabilistic Method to reduce the Deviation of WPS Positioning Estimation (WPS 측위 편차폭을 줄이기 위한 확률적 접근법)

  • Kim, Jae-Hoon;Kang, Suk-Yon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.37 no.7B
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    • pp.586-594
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    • 2012
  • The drastic growth of mobile communication and spreading of smart phone make the significant attention on Location Based Service. The one of most important things for vitalization of LBS is the accurate estimating position for mobile object. Focusing on AP's probabilistic position estimation, we develop an AP distribution map and new pattern matching algorithm for position estimation. The developed approaches can strengthen the advantages of Radio fingerprint based Wi-Fi Positioning System, especiall on the algorithms and data handling. Compared on the existing approaches of fingerprint pattern matching algorithm, we achieve the comparable higher performance on both of average error of estimation and deviation of errors. Furthermore all fingerprint data have been harvested from the actual measurement of radio fingerprint of Seoul, Kangnam area. This can approve the practical usefulness of proposed methodology.

An Experimental Study on Turbulent Diffusion Flame in Double Coaxial Air Jets(II) (동축이중 공기분류중의 난류확산화염에 관한 실험적 연구 II)

  • 조용대;최병윤
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.1234-1243
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    • 1990
  • Double coaxial are jets(annular and coaxial air jets) between which propane gas is fed was selected to study the structure of diffusion flames in turbulent shear flow. Schlieren and direct photographs are taken to visualize the flame structure. Mean and fluctuating temperatures and ion currents were measured to investigate the macroscopic and the instantaneous flame structure. The objective of this study is to understand the interaction between combustion and mixing process especially in the transition region of turbulent shear flow. The investigation reported in this paper focuses on the macroscopic and the instantaneous structures of three flames obtained. The increased mixing effect resulting from increase of Reynolds number of central air jet makes the flame bluish and short. When the velocity of surrounding air stream is higher than that of central air jet, the instantaneous flame structure is composed of coherent structure. It is considered that the flame structure of transitional region of mixing layer depends on the structure of mixing layer of non-reacting conditions.

A study on the spread of the foot-and-mouth disease in Korea in 2010/2011 (2010/2011년도 한국 발생 구제역 확산에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Jihyun;Oh, Changhyuck
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2014
  • Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and fatal viral livestock disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals domestic and wild and the FMD outbreak in Korea in 2010/2011 was a disastrous incident for the country and the economy. Thus, efforts at the national level are put to prevent foot-and-mouth disease and to reduce the damage in the case of outbreak. As one of these efforts, it is useful to study the spread of the disease by using probabilistic model. In fact, after the FMD epidemic in the UK occurred in 2001, many studies have been carried on the spread of the disease using a variety of stochastic models as an effort to prepare future outbreak of FMD. However, for the FMD outbreak in Korea occurred in 2010/2011, there are few study by utilizing probabilistic model. This paper assumes a stochastic spatial-temporal susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model for the 2010/2011 FMD outbreak to understand spread of the disease. Since data on infections of FMD disease during 2010/2011 outbreak of Aniaml and Plant Quarantine Agency and on the livestock farms from the nationwide census in 2011 of Statistics Korea do not have detail informations on address or missing values, we generate detail information on address by randomly allocating farms within corresponding Si/Gun area. The kernel function is estimated using the infection data and by using simulations, the susceptibility and transmission of the spatial-temporal stochastic SIR models are determined.

Design of digital communication systems using DCSK chaotic modulation (DCSK 카오스 변조를 이용한 디지털 통신 시스템의 설계)

  • Jang, Eun-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.565-570
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    • 2015
  • Spread spectrum communications have increased interest due to their immunity to channel fading and low probability of intercept. One of the limitations of the traditional digital spread spectrum systems is the need for spreading code synchronization. Chaotic communication is the analogue alternative of digital spread spectrum systems beside some extra features like simple transceiver structures. In this paper, This paper was used instead of the digital modulation and demodulation carriers for use in the chaotic signal in a digital communication system among the chaotic modulation schemes, the Differential Chaos Shift Keying(DCSK) is the most efficient one because its demodulator detects the data without the need to chaotic signal phase recovery. Also Implementation of Differential Chaos Shift Keying Communication System Using Matlab/Simulink and the receiver con decode the binary information sent by the transmitter, performance curves of DCSK are given in terms of bit-error probability versus signal to noise ratio with spreading factor as a parameter and we compare it to BPSK modulation.

A Serial Acquisition Scheme for DS-SS Systems Using Antenna Arrays and Its Performance in a Fading Channel (안테나 배열을 사용한 DS-SS 시스템을 위한 직렬 포착 방식과 페이딩 채널에서의 성능)

  • 박민규;오성근
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.25 no.5B
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    • pp.931-941
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    • 2000
  • We propose a serial acquisition scheme using antenna arrays for initial acquisition of direct sequence spread spectrum (DS-SS) signals, which can lower substantially the range of detectable signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The proposed scheme uses the sum of the independent decision samples form psedo-noise (PN) co-phased noncoherent I-Q matched filters (MFs) associated with antenna arrays as a decision variable in order to enhance SNR of the resulting signal. We analyze its mean acquisition time performance under an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel and a flat Rayleigh fading channel by deriving the expressions for the probabilities of detection and false alarm. From mumerical results, we see that the acquisition performance of the proposal scheme becomes improved continually as the number of antennas increses.

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