• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률이론

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Development of the Deterioration Models for the Port Structures by the Multiple Regression Analysis and Markov Chain (다중 회귀분석 및 Markov Chain을 통한 항만시설물의 상태열화모델 개발)

  • Cha, Kyunghwa;Kim, Sung-Wook;Kim, Jung Hoon;Park, Mi-Yun;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.229-239
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    • 2015
  • In light of the significant increase in the quantities of goods transported and the development of the shipping industry, the frequency of usage of port structures has increased; yet, the government's budget for the shipping & port of SOC has been reduced. Port structures require systematically effective maintenance and management trends that address their growing frequency of usage. In order to construct a productive maintenance system, it is essential to develop deterioration models of port structures that consider various characteristics, such as location, type, use, constructed level, and state of maintenance. Processes for developing such deterioration models include examining factors that cause the structures to deteriorate, collecting data on deteriorating structures, and deciding methods of estimation. The techniques used for developing the deterioration models are multiple regression analysis and Markov chain theory. Multiple regression analysis can reflect changes over time and Markov chain theory can apply status changes based on a probabilistic method. Along with these processes, the deterioration models of open-type and gravity-type wharfs were suggested.

A Study on Optimal Stage Gauge Network Considering Correlation of Individual Stage Gauge Station (관측소간의 상관관계를 고려한 수위관측망 최적화 연구)

  • Joo, Hong jun;Kim, Duck hwan;Kim, Jung wook;Choi, Chang hyun;Han, Dae gun;Lee, Ji ho;Kim, Hung soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.404-412
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    • 2016
  • This paper not only aims to establish a plan to acquire the water stage data in a constant and proper manner by using limited manpower and costs, but also establishes the fundamental technology for acquiring the water level observation data or the stage data. For this, this paper focuses on how to acquire the stage data, in a uniform manner, that can represent each basin by developing the technology for establishing the optimal observational network. For that, this paper identifies the current status of the stage gauge stations installed in the ChungJu dam including wetland basin mainly along the national rivers. Then, thus obtained factors are used to develop the representative unit hydrograph. After that, the data are converted into the probability density function. Then, the stations are calculated information transfer amount. As a last step, we establish the optimized stage gauge network by the location of the stage station and space impact that takes into account for the combinations of the number of the stations. In other words, we consider the combination of the stage gauge station with information transfer amount and spatial correlation analysis for estimation.

A Comparison Study on Selection Attributes and Satisfaction in the University Foodservice Using IPA - Focused on Difference in Accessibility to Outside Restaurants - (IPA를 이용한 대학교 학생식당 선택속성과 만족도 비교 연구 - 외부 식당과의 접근성 차이를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Kwang-Ji;Ahn, Su-Hyang;Kim, Yu-Jin;Lee, Jung-Hun;Park, Ki-Yong
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.104-119
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a way of the efficient operation of university foodservice through the Importance-Performance Analysis and examine a causal relationship between selection attributes and satisfaction. A survey was carried out in class, and after excluding 12(A University) and 20(B University) unusable cases which had an unacceptable level of missing data, 108 out of 120(A University) and 104 out of 124(B University) cases were used for analysis. As for A University, IPA showed that taste, variety, food cleanliness, table cleanliness, and tableware cleanliness were included in the concentrating efforts items. As for B University, IPA showed that taste, variety, and table cleanliness were in the concentrating efforts items that university foodservice managers should improve. Also, through t-test difference analysis on selection attributes of A University and B University in the research model, this study confirmed that both A University and B University displayed positive difference in personal services. And, through regression analysis, food quality had a positive influence on satisfaction.

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Correction of Latent Errors in Pavement Deterioration Data using Statistical Methods (통계기법을 활용한 포장파손자료의 잠재오차 보정)

  • Han, Daeseok;Do, Myungsik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.587-598
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    • 2012
  • Successful implementation of infrastructure asset management system can be started with rich and reliable data. However, measurement errors in the data have always existed in the real world caused for many unknown reasons. It disturbs maintenance activities of agencies, and makes negative effects to reliability of research results on forecasting deterioration process and life cycle cost. Above all, it makes a contradiction that road agencies cannot believe their inspection data surveyed by their hands. It is particularly serious in the road pavement management field. Although road agencies are well recognized the fact, inspecting without measurement error would be a great challenge. Considering the facts, this paper aimed to suggest statistical error processing methods to correct latent error included in pavement surface inspection data. As alternatives, this paper suggested two methods based on probability distribution to consider structure of error and reliability of the data. The suggested methods were empirically tested by using pavement inspection data from Korean National Highway. As the result, this paper confirmed that conventional error processing that just removes only visible errors is not enough to cover uncertainty in pavement deterioration process. The suggested methods would be useful for improving reliability of analysis results required for road infrastructure asset management.

Dynamic Frictional Behavior of Saw-cut Rock Joints Through Shaking Table Test (진동대 시험에 의한 편평한 암석 절리면의 동적 마찰거동 특성)

  • Park Byung-Ki;Jeon Seokwon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.16 no.1 s.60
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    • pp.58-72
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    • 2006
  • In recent years, not only the occurrences but the magnitude of earthquakes in Korea are on an increasing trend and other sources of dynamic events including large-scale construction, operation of hi띤-speed railway and explosives blasting have been increasing. Besides, the probability of exposure fir rock joints to free faces gets higher as the scale of rock mass structures becomes larger. For that reason, the frictional behavior of rock joints under dynamic conditions needs to be investigated. In this study, a shaking table test system was set up and a series of dynamic test was carried out to examine the dynamic frictional behavior of rock joints. In addition, a computer program was developed, which calculated the acceleration and deformation of the sliding block theoretically based on Newmark sliding block procedure. The static friction angle was back-calculated by measuring yield acceleration at the onset of slide. The dynamic friction angle was estimated by closely approximating the experimental results to the program-simulated responses. As a result of dynamic testing, the static friction angle at the onset of slide as well as the dynamic friction angle during sliding were estimated to be significantly lower than tilt angle. The difference between the tilt angle and the static friction angle was $4.5\~8.2^{\circ}$ and the difference between the tilt angle and the dynamic friction angle was $2.0\~7.5^{\circ}$. The decreasing trend was influenced by the magnitude of the base acceleration and inclination angle. A DEM program was used to simulate the shaking table test and the result well simulated the experimental behavior. Friction angles obtained by shaking table test were significantly lower than basic friction angle by direct shear test.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of Track-on Steel-Plate-Girder Railway Bridges Considering the Span Variability and System Damage (경간 구성 및 시스템 손상을 고려한 강판형 철도교의 지진 취약도 해석)

  • Park, Joo-Nam;Kim, Lee-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2010
  • Seismic risk assessment of railway bridges is an important issue for a transportation network, because loss of functionality of railway bridges could result in severe disruption of the railway line, as no redundant routing systems generally exist. Although many studies have been conducted by numerous researchers regarding fragility analyses of bridge structure, little or no studies have been done for fragility analyses of a class of bridge structures considering their geometric variability. This study performs a fragility analysis for Track-on Steel-Plate-Girder (TOSPG) railway bridges in Korea considering their span variability. Seismic fragility curves are developed for a series of bridges with different spans varying from 2 to 15. At last, the fragility curves for the whole TOSPG bridges in Korea are also developed using the total probability theorem. This study is expected to effectively contribute to the seismic risk assessment of railway lines, where a number of bridges are present.

Life Prediction of Composite Pressure Vessels Using Multi-Scale Approach (멀티 스케일 접근법을 이용한 복합재 압력용기의 수명 예측)

  • Jin, Kyo-Kook;Ha, Sung-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Hyuk;Han, Hoon-Hee;Kim, Seong-Jong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.3176-3183
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    • 2010
  • A multi-scale fatigue life prediction methodology of composite pressure vessels subjected to multi-axial loading has been proposed in this paper. The multi-scale approach starts from the constituents, fiber, matrix and interface, leading to predict behavior of ply, laminates and eventually the composite structures. The multi-scale fatigue life prediction methodology is composed of two steps: macro stress analysis and micro mechanics of failure based on fatigue analysis. In the macro stress analysis, multi-axial fatigue loading acting at laminate is determined from finite element analysis of composite pressure vessel, and ply stresses are computed using a classical laminate theory. The micro stresses are calculated in each constituent from ply stresses using a micromechanical model. Three methods are employed in predicting fatigue life of each constituent, i.e. a maximum stress method for fiber, an equivalent stress method for multi-axially loaded matrix, and a critical plane method for the interface. A modified Goodman diagram is used to take into account the generic mean stresses. Damages from each loading cycle are accumulated using Miner's rule. Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to predict the overall fatigue life of a composite pressure vessel considering statistical distribution of material properties of each constituent, fiber volume fraction and manufacturing winding angle.

우리나라 금융정책(金融政策)에 빠른 증권시장(證券市場)의 동태적(動態的) 구조(構造)와 증권가격형성(證券價格形成) 메카니즘, 그리고 증권시장(證券市場)의 제도개선(制度改善) 방안(方案)에 관한 연구(硏究)

  • Lee, Il-Gyun;Hwang, Seon-Ung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-49
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    • 1996
  • 금융정책(金融政策)과 자본시장(資本市場)의 증권가격(證券價格)과의 동태적(動態的) 관련성(關聯性)을 실증적으로 분석한 결과, 동태적(動態的) 구조면(構造面)에서 볼 때 특히 주식시장은 화폐에 대하여 시차를 갖는 반면, 장기채시장과 단기무위험시장에서는 시차를 갖지 않음이 발견되었다. 그리고 증권가격형성 메카니즘을 살펴본 결과, 화폐(貨幣)의 증가(增加)는 부(富)의 효과(效果)로 이어지고 그 결과 주가의 상승이 초래된다. 다른 한편으로 화폐의 증가가 대체효과를 반드시 유발시키지는 않으며, 그 이유로는 투자자들이 장기채를 선호함으로써 가격의 상승을 불러일으키는 반면 무위험자산의 경우 가격의 변동은 일어나지 않았기 때문이다. 끝으로, 가격효과(價格效果)의 존속은 비교적 단기로 끝남이 확인되었다. 증권시장(證券市場)의 장기적(長期的) 구조(構造)를 파악하기 위하여 공적분(共積分) 검정(檢定)을 실시하였다. 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定)에 의하여 우리나라의 금융시계열은 단위근이 존재한다는 사실이 입증되었다. 따라서 금융시계열이 비정상적(非定常的) 확률과정(確率過程)을 따르고 있다. 공적분(共積分) 검정(檢定)에 의하여 화폐의 실질대수 유통속도와 실질주가, 장단기수익비율, 화폐차등수익률과 소득변화율 사이에는 차분후에 장기적 정상균형관계가 형성되고 있음이 발견되었다. 통화정책과 주가는 장기의 동태적 구조 측면에서 파악할 때 장기정상관계를 유지하고 있다. 그리고 주가는 시차(時差)가 0인 동시적(同時的) 통화정책(通貨政策)과 제1계 시차통화정책과 소득에 의하여 결정되고 있다. 다른 금융시계열은 주가결정에 영향을 미치고 있지 못한 실정이다. 주가의 상승은 부(富)의 효과(效果)와 대체효과(代替效果)를 유발하고 있다. 따라서 통화당국은 이점을 고려하여 화폐정책(貨幣政策)을 수립하여야 한다. 그리고 통화량은 주가의 가격형성에 양(陽)의 효과(效果)를 형성하고 있다. 따라서 화폐의 공급량의 증가는 명목주가(名目株價)의 상승을 유발하고 이에 따라 부(富)의 효과(效果)와 대체효과(代替效果)가 발생한다. 이와 같은 현상의 발견은 정부당국의 통화정책과 자본시장정책에 중요한 의의를 갖고 있다고 하겠다. 주가형성(株價形成)에 대한 통화정책의 효과는 당기 뿐만 아니라 차기에도 이어지고 화폐량과 소득이 주가의 결정에 영향을 미치고 있으며 다른 금융변수(金融變數)들은 영향을 미치지 않고 있다. 그러나 실질화폐잔고와 실질주가 장단기수익비율 화폐차등수익률과 소득변화률과는 장기적(長期的) 정상적(定常的) 균형관계(均衡關係)를 형성하고 있다. 따라서 장기적 관점에서 증권시장은 경제성장을 위한 통화정책과 각 분야의 균형적 성장을 유발할 수 있는 재정정책(財政政策)이 요청되고 있다. 위의 논의에서 유추할 수 있는 것은 화폐의 영향을 완화시키기 위하여 option시장의 개발과 농산물, 광물, 기타 실물 및 금융에 대한 선물시장의 개설이 요청된다. 이와 같은 시장을 통하여 통화 정책이 증권시장에 미치는 과도한 효과를 축소시켜 합리적이고 건전한 증권시장(證券市場)의 발전(發展)과 금융시장(金融市場)의 원활한 발전이 이룩될 수 있을 것이다. 자본시장이론(資本市場理論)에서는 화폐는 무시하고 실물적인 관점에서 증권가격의 결정을 연구하거나 위험분석에 주안점이 주어져 왔었다. 본 연구를 통하여 통화정책의 결과가 자본시장에 직접적으로 영향을 미치고 있음을 확인하였다. 통화금융정책과 주가의 유기적 관계를 확인한 본 논문의 결과를 정책당국이 참고하여 통화금융정책(通貨金融政策) 효율성(效率性)을 극대화(極大化)할 수 있을 것으로 본다.

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Garbage Collection Protocol of Fault Tolerance Information in Multi-agent Environments (멀티에이전트 환경에서 결함 포용 정보의 쓰레기 처리 기법)

  • 이대원;정광식;이화민;신상철;이영준;유헌창;이원규
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.31 no.3_4
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    • pp.204-212
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    • 2004
  • Existing distributed systems have higher probability of failures occurrence than stand-alone system, so many fault tolerant techniques have been developed. Because of insufficient storage resulting from the increased fault tolerance information stored, the performance of system has been degraded. To avoid performance degradation, it needs delete useless fault tolerance information. In this paper, we propose a garbage collection algorithm for fault tolerance information. And we define and design the garbage collection agent for garbage collection of fault tolerance information, the information agent for management of fault tolerant data, and the facilitator agent for communication between agents. Also, we propose the garbage collection algorithm using the garbage collection agent. For rollback recovery, we use independent checkpointing protocol and sender based pessimistic message logging protocol. In our proposed garbage collection algorithm, the garbage collection, information, and facilitator agent is created with process, and the information agent constructs domain knowledge with its checkpoints and non-determistic events. And the garbage collection agent decides garbage collection time, and it deletes useless fault tolerance information in cooperation with the information and facilitator agent. For propriety of proposed garbage collection technique using agents, we compare domain knowledge of system that performs garbage collection after rollback recovery and domain knowledge of system that doesn't perform garbage collection.

Quantifying Uncertainty for the Water Balance Analysis (물수지 분석을 위한 불확실성 정량화)

  • Lee, Seung-Uk;Kim, Young-Oh;Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.4 s.153
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    • pp.281-292
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    • 2005
  • The water balance analysis for the long-term water resources plan is a simple calculation that compares water demands with possible water supplies. For a watershed being considered the reports on the performance of the water balance analysis, however, have shown inconsistent results and thus have not earned credibility due to the uncertainty of the data acquired and models used. In this research, uncertainties in the water scarcity estimate were assessed through probability representation based on the Monte Carlo simulation using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The natural flow, municipal demand, industrial demand, agricultural demand, and return flow rate were selected as representative input variables for the water balance analysis, and their distributions were set based on the linear regression and the entropy theory. The statistical properties of the output variable samples were analyzed in comparison with a deterministic estimate of the water scarcity of an existing study. Application of LHS to three sub-basins of the Geum river basin showed the deterministic estimate could be overestimated or underestimated. The sensitivity analysis as well as the uncertainty analysis found that the return flow rate of the agricultural water is the most uncertain but is rarely sensitive to the output of the water balance analysis.