• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률이론

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Back-end Prefetching Scheme for Improving the Performance of Cluster-based Web Servers (클러스터 웹 서버에서 성능 향상을 위한 노드간 선인출 기법)

  • Park, Seon-Yeong;Park, Do-Hyeon;Lee, Joon-Won;Cho, Jung-Wan
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 2002
  • With the explosive growth of WWW traffic, there is an increasing demand for the high performance Web servers to provide a stable Web service to users. The cluster-based Web server is a solution to core with the heavy access from users, easily scaling the server according to the loads. In the cluster-based Web sewer, a back-end node may not be able to serve some HTTP requests directly because it does not have the requested contents in its main memory. In this case, the back-end node has to retrieve the requested contents from its local disk or other back-end nodes in the cluster. To reduce service latency, we introduce a new prefetch scheme. The back-end nodes predict the next HTTP requests and prefetch the contents of predicted requests before the next requests arrive. We develop three prefetch algorithms bated on some useful information gathered from many clients'HTTP requests. Through trace-driven simulation, the service latency of the prefetch scheme is reduced by 10 ~ 25% as compared with no prefetch scheme. Among the proposed prefetch algorithms, Time and Access Probability-based Prefetch (TAP2) algorithm, which uses the access probability and the inter-reference time of Web object, shows the best performance.

Determination of drought events considering the possibility of relieving drought and estimation of design drought severity (가뭄해갈 가능성을 고려한 가뭄사상의 결정 및 확률 가뭄심도 산정)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Yu, Ji Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to propose a new method to determine the drought event and the design drought severity. In order to define a drought event from precipitation data, theory of run was applied with the cumulative rainfall deficit. When we have a large amount of rainfall over the threshold level, in this study, we compare with the previous cumulative rainfall deficit to determine whether the drought is relieved or not. The recurrence characteristics of the drought severity on the specific duration was analyzed by the conditional bivariate copula function and confidence intervals were estimated to quantify uncertainties. The methodology was applied to Seoul station with the historical dataset (1909~2015). It was observed that the past droughts considered as extreme hydrological events had from 10 to 50 years of return period. On the other hand, the current on-going drought event started from 2013 showed the significantly higher return period. It is expected that the result of this study may be utilized as the reliable criteria based on the concept of return period for the drought contingency plan.

Performance Estimation of Receiving Data Parket of TT&C System on the Pass Time of LEO Satellite (저궤도 위성의 통과시간에서 관제 시스템의 수신 데이터 패킷 성능 예측)

  • 장대익;김대영
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.24 no.8A
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    • pp.1149-1155
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    • 1999
  • LEO(Low altitude Earth Orbit) Satellite systems have been utilized in the field of earth and scientific observation (cartography mission, ocean color monitoring, bioglogical coeanography, space environments observation by space physics sensor, and meteorological observation, atmospheric observation etc.), and the field of military (military communications and secret information, enemy reconnaissance etc.), and recently been developing in the field of mobile satellite commnication of GMPCS for commercial utilization. In Korea, KOMPSAT I satellite and ground system are been developing and planed to be lunched on October 1999 In this paper, the link budge of the TT&C system for LEO satellite is described and the relations between elevation angle and pass time of LEO satellite are calculated according to satellite moving. And the packet error rates of receiving data are derived three packet error rates(PER) of real-time(RT) mode, playback(PB) mode, and real-time and range tone(RT+RNG) mode are estimated according to pass time of satellite. The results of PER are the best at real-time and the worst at real-time mode and range mode at the all pass time of satellite. The average error free packet(EFP)s of real-time mode, playback mode, and real-time and range tone for the pass time of satellite are obtained as 99.999999%, 99.999912%, 99.995945% respectively. Therefore, transmission sequence of telemetry data are determined such as PER sequence according to pass time, namely, real-time, playback, and real-time and range mode.

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Effect of the Civil Servant's Suspension of Pension Payments on the Labor Supply and Suggestions on Developmental Alternatives of Suspension of Pension Payments (공무원연금의 지급정지제도가 가입자의 노동공급에 미치는 영향 및 지급정지제도의 발전방향 모색)

  • Ji, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.375-403
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    • 2005
  • This Study reviews theoretical argument about the effect of retirement earnings test on the labor supply of the aged which is controversial issue in OECD countries and analyze the effect on the incidence of re-employment, re-employment period of suspended officials and the possibility of re-retirement through Government Employment Pension Corporation data. It consists of 178,363 public officials who received pension benefit or disability pension in January 2005. The main result of this research shows that public officials re-employed were 8,086 which is 4.5% of total retired, and median survival time of suspended pension payments is 3.3 years. Also the median re-employment period of 100% suspended officials is about 20 month shorter than that of 1/2 suspended officials and it is shown in regression analysis that the possibility of re-retirement by 100% suspended officials is statistically significant higher than those of 50%. It specially expects greater influence if includes in case taking lump-sum or no making effect of re-employment because current system withhold pension payments even by earned income itself. Therefore, this analysis suggests suspension of pension payment properly applied according to the age and income together with "Delayed Retirement Credit" or "Partial Pension" for developmental alternatives of civil servant's suspension of pension payments. Furthermore, It is urgently needed that distinctive quality data about re-employment including earnings to perform deep-empirical research for effective policy. Lastly, it is extremely necessary to reinforce management system of Government Employment Pension Corporation.

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A Financial Theory of the Demand for Insurance With Simultaneous Investment Opportunities (투자(投資)와 보험수요(保險需要)의 상관관계(相關關係)에 관한 재무경제학적(財務經濟學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Witt, Robert C.;Hong, Soon-Koo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.223-262
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    • 1992
  • This paper develops a theory of the demand for insurance. The present model incorporates insurance demand time value of insurance premium, and demand for listless and risky assets simultaneously within the expected utility framework. For a special case of CARA, an insurance decision can be made separately from other portfolio decisions. However, in general, the interactions of both decisions cannot be ignored even when insurable and speculative risks are stochastically independent. In particular, the role of risky investment in hedging insurable risk is demonstrated and it is shown that this role cannot be duplicated by an insurance contract. When the investment decision is made simultaneously with the insurance decision, some of the classic theory on insurance should be modified. As an example, the authors characterize the sufficient conditions, under which the Bernoulli criteria (without and with premium loadings) hold or are violated in terms of the net gain of risky investment, the net cost of insurance, and the stochastic relationship between insurable and speculative risks. The authors interpret the results using the Rothschild and Stiglitz's (1970) notion of 'increase in riskiness'.

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Estate Planning among the U.S. Elderly - Focusing on Wills - (미국 노인층의 자산 상속 계획 - 유언장 준비를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee Jieun
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.43 no.6 s.208
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    • pp.113-131
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate older people's planning for estate distribution by examining the factors associated with their will-holding status. This study used data from the 1994 Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) Survey, Wave One. The objectives of this study were (a) to establish profiles of older people who have a written will and to compare their financial portfolios across will-holding status; (b) to identify factors that influence the decision to make a will, and (c) to draw implications for family economists, financial educators, planners, and policy makers. The results suggested that a household's financial resources (i.e., liquid and illiquid assets, housing equity, and household income) positively influence the probability of having a will. Older people who resided in a community property state and who were in poor health were less likely to be will-holders than their counterparts, holding financial resources and other variables constant. Demographic characteristics such as age, education, and race, and behavioral characteristic also were significant determinants of the likelihood of having a will. Volunteer participation and charitable contribution, which are proxies for altruism, increased the likelihood of having a will. The probability of having a will also was higher among those who had life insurance and had gwen inter-vivos gifts of more than $\$5,000$ to their children or grandchildren in the past 10 years. On the other hand, the likelihood of having a will declined with increasing number of biological children. From the findings, implications for financial planners and educators were suggested along with directions for future research.

Weighting Effect on the Weighted Mean in Finite Population (유한모집단에서 가중평균에 포함된 가중치의 효과)

  • Kim, Kyu-Seong
    • Survey Research
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2006
  • Weights can be made and imposed in both sample design stage and analysis stage in a sample survey. While in design stage weights are related with sample data acquisition quantities such as sample selection probability and response rate, in analysis stage weights are connected with external quantities, for instance population quantities and some auxiliary information. The final weight is the product of all weights in both stage. In the present paper, we focus on the weight in analysis stage and investigate the effect of such weights imposed on the weighted mean when estimating the population mean. We consider a finite population with a pair of fixed survey value and weight in each unit, and suppose equal selection probability designs. Under the condition we derive the formulas of the bias as well as mean square error of the weighted mean and show that the weighted mean is biased and the direction and amount of the bias can be explained by the correlation between survey variate and weight: if the correlation coefficient is positive, then the weighted mein over-estimates the population mean, on the other hand, if negative, then under-estimates. Also the magnitude of bias is getting larger when the correlation coefficient is getting greater. In addition to theoretical derivation about the weighted mean, we conduct a simulation study to show quantities of the bias and mean square errors numerically. In the simulation, nine weights having correlation coefficient with survey variate from -0.2 to 0.6 are generated and four sample sizes from 100 to 400 are considered and then biases and mean square errors are calculated in each case. As a result, in the case or 400 sample size and 0.55 correlation coefficient, the amount or squared bias of the weighted mean occupies up to 82% among mean square error, which says the weighted mean might be biased very seriously in some cases.

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A Study on the Traffic Patterns of Dangerous Goods Carriers in Busan North and Gamcheon Port (부산 북항·감천항의 위험화물운반선 통항패턴에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Kwan;Kim, Se-Won;Lee, Yun-Sok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2017
  • As a preliminary study of enter or leaving traffic patterns of the Korea main port, port Management Information System (Port-MIS) data was used to check the volume of vessels entering and leaving the port of Busan, and three consecutive days from each seasons were selected for study. Selected 12-day General Information Center on Maritime Safety & Security (GICOMS) data was also used to analyze the traffic pattern in the main traffic lane of Busan port for dangerous goods carrier. Also, the distance between dangerous goods carriers and Oryukdo breakwater of east breakwater in the main traffic lane was analyzed. Collision probability was estimated using the cumulative probability distribution function of the normal distribution for the maritime traffic safety audit scheme based on the assumption that a ship's trajectory has a normal distribution for a section of the route. However, in case of entry or leaving thorough the Oryukdo breakwater and entry thorough the east breakwater, ship's sailing trajectories were revealed not to follow a normal distribution via regularity testing using a KS-test and SW-test. Especially in the north port, the tendency of the right side of the ship to pass was remarkable. It is desirable to develop a traffic model suitable for the characteristics of the port rather than to apply general traffic theories, and to apply this model to a maritime traffic safety diagnosis, so further research is needed.

Model Development Determining Probabilistic Ramp Merge Capacity Including Forced Merge Type (강제합류 형태를 포함한 확률적 연결로 합류용량 산정 모형 개발)

  • KIM, Sang Gu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2003
  • Over the decades, a lot of studies have dealt with the traffic characteristics and phenomena at a merging area. However, relatively few analytical techniques have been developed to evaluate the traffic flow at the area and, especially, the ramp merging capacity has rarely been. This study focused on the merging behaviors that were characterized by the relationship between the shoulder lane flow and the on-ramp flow, and modeled these behaviors to determine ramp merge capacity by using gap acceptance theory. In the process of building the model, both an ideal mergence and a forced mergence were considered when ramp-merging vehicles entered the gap provided by the flow of the shoulder lane. In addition, the model for the critical gap was proposed because the critical gap was the most influential factor to determine merging capacity in the developed models. The developed models showed that the merging capacity value was on the increase as the critical gap decreased and the shoulder lane volume increased. This study has a meaning of modeling the merging behaviors including the forced merging type to determine ramp merging capacity more precisely. The findings of this study would help analyze traffic phenomena and understand traffic behaviors at a merging area, and might be applicable to decide the primary parameters of on-ramp control by considering the effects of ramp merging flow.

Application of GIS-based Probabilistic Empirical and Parametric Models for Landslide Susceptibility Analysis (산사태 취약성 분석을 위한 GIS 기반 확률론적 추정 모델과 모수적 모델의 적용)

  • Park, No-Wook;Chi, Kwang-Hoon;Chung, Chang-Jo F.;Kwon, Byung-Doo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2005
  • Traditional GIS-based probabilistic spatial data integration models for landslide susceptibility analysis have failed to provide the theoretical backgrounds and effective methods for integration of different types of spatial data such as categorical and continuous data. This paper applies two spatial data integration models including non-parametric empirical estimation and parametric predictive discriminant analysis models that can directly use the original continuous data within a likelihood ratio framework. Similarity rates and a prediction rate curve are computed to quantitatively compare those two models. To illustrate the proposed models, two case studies from the Jangheung and Boeun areas were carried out and analyzed. As a result of the Jangheung case study, two models showed similar prediction capabilities. On the other hand, in the Boeun area, the parametric predictive discriminant analysis model showed the better prediction capability than that from the non-parametric empirical estimation model. In conclusion, the proposed models could effectively integrate the continuous data for landslide susceptibility analysis and more case studies should be carried out to support the results from the case studies, since each model has a distinctive feature in continuous data representation.