• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 유지관리

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Effect of Time-dependent Diffusion and Exterior Conditions on Service Life Considering Deterministic and Probabilistic Method (결정론 및 확률론적 방법에 따라 시간의존성 염화물 확산계수 및 외부 영향인자가 내구수명에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2016
  • Service life evaluation for RC Structures exposed to chloride attack is very important, however the previous two methods(deterministic and probabilistic method) show a big difference. The paper presents a service life simulation using deterministic and probabilistic method with time-dependent diffusion coefficient. Three different cases are considered for diffusion coefficient, concrete cover depth, and surface chloride content respectively, and then the PDF(probability of durability failure) and the related service life are obtained. Through adopting time-dependent diffusion, the discrepancy between the two methods can be reduced, which yields reasonable service life. When diffusion coefficient increases from $2.5{\times}10^{-12}m^2/sec$ to $7.5{\times}10^{-12}m^2/sec$, the service life decreases to 25.5~35.6% level, and cover depth does from 75 mm to 125 mm, it increases to 267~311% level as well. In the case of surface chloride content from $5.0kg/m^3$ to $15.0kg/m^3$, it changes to 40.9~54.5%. The effect of cover depth is higher than the others by 8~10 times and also implies it is a key parameter to service life extension.

Establishment of the Optimal Repair Cycle of the Components of the Rental Housing (공공임대주택 구성재의 적정 수선주기 산정 연구)

  • Lee, Tae-Kyoung;Chae, Chang-U;Lee, Kang-Hee
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2012
  • A rental housing has a key role to supply the living space to non-ownership. A public rental housing is particularly aimed at providing the living space for the low-income households with a low rent fee. Therefore, the local government would try to maintain the facilities of the rental housing and to get the decent living condition. For getting the required living condition, it should make a maintenance plan, which contains the repair time, repair scope and targeted component and finishings. This study is aimed at providing the optimal repair time in 12 components and components of the rental housing which is controlled by the local government. The optimal repair time has two steps to get the final result. First, it would draw the 1'st repair time with the probabilistic and empirical approach. Second, comparing the drawn data and the service life, the optima repair time would be provided with considering the components' attributes. Result are as follows : First, the optimal repair time would be considered with the component attributes. There are user's convenience, its safety and physical aspect. Second, the kitchen utensils, elevator and water tap has a optimal time of 16, 19, 17 years respectively which is considered with physical aspect. In addition, the optima repair time of the wiring appliance and lighting equipment are 12 years and 10 years respectively.

Study for Progress Rate of Standard Deviation of Irregularity Based on Track Properties for the Railway Track Maintenance Cycle Analysis (궤도 유지보수 주기 예측을 위한 구간 특성에 따른 궤도틀림 표준편차 진전정도 분석)

  • Jeong, Min Chul;Kim, Jung Hoon;Lee, Jee Ha;Kang, Yun Suk;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2012
  • The irregularity of railway track affects not only the comfort of ride such as noise or vibration but also the safety of train operation. For this reason, it is an interesting research area to design a reliable and sustainable railway track system and to analyze the train movement mechanism based on systematic approaches considering reasons of track irregularity possible in a specific local environment. Irregularity data inspected by EM-120, an railway inspection system in Korea includes unavoidable incomplete and erratic information, so it is encountered lots of problem to analyse those data without appropriate pre-data-refining processes. In this research, for the efficient management and maintenance of railway system, progress rate of standard deviation of irregularity is quantified. During the computation, some important components of railways such as rail joint, ballast, roadbed, and fastener have been considered. Probabilistic distributions of irregularity growth with respect to time are computed to predict the remaining service life of railway track and to be adapted for the safety assessment.

Objective Reduction Approach for Efficient Decision Making of Multi-Objective Optimum Service Life Management (다목적 최적화 기반 구조물 수명관리의 효율적 의사결정을 위한 목적감소 기법의 적용)

  • Kim, Sunyong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.254-260
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    • 2017
  • The service life of civil infrastructure needs to be maintained or extended through appropriate inspections and maintenance planning, which results from the optimization process. A multi-objective optimization process can lead to more rational and flexible trade-off solutions rather than a single-objective optimization for the service life management of civil infrastructure. Recent investigations on the service life management of civil infrastructure were generally based on minimizing the life-cycle cost analysis and maximizing the structural performance. Various objectives for service life management have been developed using novel probabilistic concepts and methods over the last few decades. On the other hand, an increase in the number of objectives in a multi-objective optimization problem can lead to difficulties in computational efficiency, visualization, and decision making. These difficulties can be overcome using the objective reduction approach to identify the redundant and essential objectives. As a result, the efficiency in computational efforts, visualization, and decision making can be improved. In this paper, the multi-objective optimization using the objective reduction approach was applied to the service life management of concrete bridges. The results showed that four initial objectives can be reduced by two objectives for the optimal service life management.

Proposal of the Modified Management Criteria Value in Earth Retaining Structure using Measured Data (계측자료를 이용한 흙막이 구조물의 수정된 관리기준치 제안)

  • Kim, Jueng-Kyu;Park, Heung-Gyu;Nam, Jin-Won
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2016
  • The absolute value management method is widely used in the most of the earth retaining construction, which evaluates the safety by comparing measurement result and management criteria. Therefore, the management criteria is the standard to evaluate the safety of the site, and in other words, the criteria is a direct factor of the evaluation. That means that the safety of the site can not be acquired if the management criteria is not proper, even though the measurement system is perfectly set. However, many of field technicians do not have rely on the current management criteria, and they even recognize the necessity of the revision. Therefore, in this study, the necessity of the revision was studied. Also, the optimum criteria selection and the application were performed based on the test results of earth retaining deflection and probabilistic theory. The absolute value management method was used for this study. The details are tabulated.

Probabilistic Neural Network for Prediction of Compressive Strength of Concrete (콘크리트 압축강도 추정을 위한 확률 신경망)

  • Kim, Doo-Kie;Lee, Jong-Jae;Chang, Seong-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2004
  • The compressive strength of concrete is a criterion to produce concrete. However, the tests on the compressive strength are complicated and time-consuming. More importantly, it is too late to make improvement even if the test result does not satisfy the required strength, since the test is usually performed at the 28th day after the placement of concrete at the construction site. Therefore, strength prediction before the placement of concrete is highly desirable. This study presents the probabilistic technique for predicting the compressive strength of concrete on the basis of concrete mix proportions. The estimation of the strength is based on the probabilistic neural network which is an effective tool for pattern classification problem and gives a probabilistic result, not a deterministic value. In this study, verifications for the applicability of the probabilistic neural networks were performed using the test results of concrete compressive strength. The estimated strengths are also compared with the results of the actual compression tests. It has been found that the present methods are very efficient and reasonable in predicting the compressive strength of concrete probabilistically.

A study on reliability analysis model of the repair and replacement cycle of a building which utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 건축물 수선교체주기 신뢰성 분석 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Rok;Jung, Young-Han;Son, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2010
  • This study presented a model that can enable a reliability analysis for the repair and replacement cycle of a building by using background repair and replacement data and expert opinion as foundation data and applying Monte Carlo Simulation. The presented model offers the time of the repair and replacement of building elements for the period of a year, and supports the prediction of repair and replacement and expenses demand in advance while planning the maintenance of a building. In addition, the model will significantly reduce the risks to the building owner with regard to maintenance decisions. In addition, when a person in charge of the maintenance of large-scale building assets is having difficulties making decisions regarding the repair and replacement of existing building elements due to a lack of background data to support a long-term policy on the repair and replacement requirements, an engineering solution that can ensure the adequacy of this is provided. In summary, it can be largely divided into three study results. First, a method of estimating the repair and replacement cycle that can deal with the development of a construction system was developed. Second, a probabilistic methodology that can quantify the risk of the repair and replacement cycle was proposed. Third, the proposed model can be used as a means of supporting designer and constructor in making decisions for the life cycle plan of a building during a construction project.

The Analysis of Statistical Behavior in Concrete Creep (콘크리트 크리프의 확률론적 거동 해석)

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan;Park, Jong-Choul
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2001
  • This study is to measure the creep coefficient by 3 days, 7 days and 28 days in the age when loading for the quality assessment of $350kgf/cm^2$ in the high-strength concrete. And it is to analyze the behavior of creep coefficient by applying the experimental data though the compressive strength test, the elastic modulus test and the dry shrinkage test to the ACI-209, AASHTO-94 and CEB/FIP-90, the prediction mode, and the basis of concrete structural design. Also it is to analyze the behavior of short-term creep coefficient during 91 days in the age when loading through the experiment by using the regression analysis, the statistical theory. As applying it to the long-term behavior during 365 days and comparing with the creep prediction mode and examining it, the result from the analysis of the quality of the concrete is as follows. As the result of comparison and analysis about the ACI-209, AASHTO-94 and CEB/FIP-90, the prediction mode, and the basis of concrete structural design, the normal Portland cement class 1 shows the approximate value with the prediction of GEE/PIP-90 and the basis of concrete structural design, but in case of the prediction of ACI-209 and AASHTO-94, there would be worry of underestimation in the application.

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Reliability Analysis of Chloride Ion Penetration based on Level II Method for Marine Concrete Structure (해양 콘크리트 구조물에 대한 Level II 수준에서의 염소이온침투 신뢰성 해석)

  • Han, Sang-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2008
  • Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

Development of the Deterioration Models for the Port Structures by the Multiple Regression Analysis and Markov Chain (다중 회귀분석 및 Markov Chain을 통한 항만시설물의 상태열화모델 개발)

  • Cha, Kyunghwa;Kim, Sung-Wook;Kim, Jung Hoon;Park, Mi-Yun;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.229-239
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    • 2015
  • In light of the significant increase in the quantities of goods transported and the development of the shipping industry, the frequency of usage of port structures has increased; yet, the government's budget for the shipping & port of SOC has been reduced. Port structures require systematically effective maintenance and management trends that address their growing frequency of usage. In order to construct a productive maintenance system, it is essential to develop deterioration models of port structures that consider various characteristics, such as location, type, use, constructed level, and state of maintenance. Processes for developing such deterioration models include examining factors that cause the structures to deteriorate, collecting data on deteriorating structures, and deciding methods of estimation. The techniques used for developing the deterioration models are multiple regression analysis and Markov chain theory. Multiple regression analysis can reflect changes over time and Markov chain theory can apply status changes based on a probabilistic method. Along with these processes, the deterioration models of open-type and gravity-type wharfs were suggested.