• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.287-294
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• 2017

Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.404-409
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• 2008

This paper consists largely of two parts: the first part introduces the revised railway human reliability analysis (R-HRA) method which is to be used under the railway risk assessment framework, and the second part presents the features of a computer software which was developed for aiding the R-HRA process. The revised R-HRA method supplements the original R-HRA method by providing a specific task analysis guideline and a classification of performance shaping factors (PSFs) to support a consistent analysis between analysts. The R-HRA software aids the analysts in gathering information for HRA, qualitative error prediction including identification of external error modes and internal error modes, quantification of human error probability, and reporting the overall analysis results. The revised R-HRA method and software are expected to support the analysts in an effective and efficient way in analysing human error potential in railway event or accident scenarios.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.249-265
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• 1987

For the probabilistic risk assessment of the high level radioactive waste repository, some methods have been proposed up to now. Since the system has highly uncertain input parameters, the evaluated risk for some input parameter values has high uncertainty. In this paper, methods of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are devised to analyse systematically these factors and applied to a probabilistic risk assessment model of the high level waste repository, The statistical package SPUSA developed through this study can be used for any other fields, e.g., statistical thermal margin analysis, source term uncertainty analysis, etc.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.143-159
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• 2017

A probabilistic fragility assessment procedure is developed in this paper to predict risks of damage arising from seismic loading to the two-cell RC box tunnel. Especially, the paper focuses on establishing a simplified methodology to derive fragility curves which are an indispensable ingredient of seismic fragility assessment. In consideration of soil-structure interaction (SSI) effect, the ground response acceleration method for buried structure (GRAMBS) is used in the proposed approach to estimate the dynamic response behavior of the structures. In addition, the damage states of tunnels are identified by conducting the pushover analyses and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with design variables. To illustrate the concepts described, a numerical analysis is conducted and fragility curves are developed for a large set of artificially generated ground motions satisfying a design spectrum. The seismic fragility curves are represented by two-parameter lognormal distribution function and its two parameters, namely the median and log-standard deviation, are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) method.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.42-54
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• 2011

This study presented an algorithm to detect zigzag driving maneuver that is highly associated with vehicle crash occurrence. In general, the zigzag driving results from the driver's inattention including drowsy driving and driving while intoxicated. Therefore, the technology to detect such unsafe driving maneuver will provide us with a valuable opportunity to prevent crash in the road. The proposed detection algorithm used angular velocity data obtained from a gyro sensor. Performance evaluations of the algorithm presented promising results for the actual implementation in practice. The outcome of this study can be used as novel information contents under the ubiquitous transportation systems environment.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.30-40
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• 2014

The demand of underground structure such as box culvert for electric power transmission is increasing more and more, and the service life extension of these structures is very important. Recent observations in field and experimental evidences show that even steel in concrete can be corroded by carbonation reaction of cover concrete. Carbonation-induced corrosion in concrete may often occur in a high carbon dioxide environment. In this study, the risk of carbonation of box culverts in our nation was evaluated by measuring the carbonation rate and concrete cover depth in field. Then, the service life due to carbonation at the cover depth was calculated by in situ information and the Monte Carlo simulation in a probabilistic way. Additionally, the accelerated carbonation test for the cracked beam specimen was executed and the crack effect owing to the carbonation process on the service life of box culvert was numerically investigated via Monte Carlo simulation based on the experimental results.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.3 s.81
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• pp.95-108
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.72-79
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• 2015

An efficient and practical reliability evaluation method is proposed for the coastal structures in this paper. It is capable of evaluating reliability of real complicated coastal structures considering uncertainties in various sources of design parameters, such as wave and current loads, resistance-related design variables including Young's modulus and compressive strength of the reinforced concrete, soil parameters, and boundary conditions. It is developed by intelligently integrating the Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and the finite element method (FEM). The LHS-based MCS is used to significantly reduce the computational effort by limiting the number of simulation cycles required for the reliability evaluation. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed method were verified using a caisson-type breakwater structure in the numerical example.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.735-761
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• 2004

As a possible alternative to Traditional Discounted Cash Flow Method, "Option Pricing Model" has drawn academic attentions for the last a few decades. However, it has failed to replace traditional DCF method practically due to its mathematical complexity. This paper introduces an option pricing valuation model specifically adjusted for the natural resource development projects. We add market information and industry-specific features into the model so that the model remains objective as well as realistic after the adjustment. The following two features of natural resource development projects take central parts in model construction; product price is a unique source of cash flow's uncertainty, and the projects have cost structure from capital-intense industry, in which initial capital cost takes most part of total cost during the projects. To improve the adaptability of Option Pricing Model specifically to the natural resource development projects, we use Two-Factor Model and Long-term Asset Model for the analysis. Although the model introduced in this paper is still simple and reflects limited reality, we expect an improvement in applicability of option pricing method for the evaluation of natural resource development projects can be made through the process taken in this paper.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.9
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• pp.705-718
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• 2021

Climate change has a significant impact on vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the possibility of ecological drought was investigated using satellite remote sensing data. First, the Vegetation Health Index was estimated from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature provided by MODIS. Then, a joint probability model was constructed to estimate the possibility of vegetation-related drought in various precipitation/evaporation scenarios in forest areas around 60 major ASOS sites of the Meteorological Administration located throughout Korea. The results of this study show the risk pattern of drought related to forest vegetation under conditions of low atmospheric moisture supply or high atmospheric moisture demand. It also identifies the sensitivity of drought risks associated with forest vegetation under various meterological drought conditions. These findings provide insights for decision makers to assess drought risk and develop drought mitigation strategies related to forest vegetation in a warming era.