• Title/Summary/Keyword: 홍수 빈도 분석

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Stochastic disaggregation of daily rainfall based on K-Nearest neighbor resampling method (K번째 최근접 표본 재추출 방법에 의한 일 강우량의 추계학적 분해에 대한 연구)

  • Park, HeeSeong;Chung, GunHui
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.283-291
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    • 2016
  • As the infrastructures and populations are the condensed in the mega city, urban flood management becomes very important due to the severe loss of lives and properties. For the more accurate calculation of runoff from the urban catchment, hourly or even minute rainfall data have been utilized. However, the time steps of the measured or forecasted data under climate change scenarios are longer than hourly, which causes the difficulty on the application. In this study, daily rainfall data was disaggregated into hourly using the stochastic method. Based on the historical hourly precipitation data, Gram Schmidt orthonormalization process and K-Nearest Neighbor Resampling (KNNR) method were applied to disaggregate daily precipitation into hourly. This method was originally developed to disaggregate yearly runoff data into monthly. Precipitation data has smaller probability density than runoff data, therefore, rainfall patterns considering the previous and next days were proposed as 7 different types. Disaggregated rainfall was resampled from the only same rainfall patterns to improve applicability. The proposed method was applied rainfall data observed at Seoul weather station where has 52 years hourly rainfall data and the disaggregated hourly data were compared to the measured data. The proposed method might be applied to disaggregate the climate change scenarios.

MICROSATELLITE INSTABILITY AND p53 GENE MUTATION IN ORAL SQUAMOUS CELL CARCINOMA (구강편평상피세포암 조직에서의 Microsatellite 불안정성 및 p53 유전자 돌연변이 분석)

  • Choi, Tae-Ho;Chung, Woon-Bok;Hong, Su-Hyung;Kim, Jin-A;Na, Sun-Oung;Jang, Hyun-Jung;Sohn, Yoon-Kyung;Kim, Chin-Soo;Kim, Jung-Wan
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.337-344
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    • 2000
  • Germ-line mutations at DNA repair loci confer susceptibility to colon cancer in hereditary non-polypopsis colorectal cancer. Somatic loss of DNA mismatch repair gene has been reported in a large variety of other tumor types. Replication errors(RERs) judged by microsatellite instability(MSI) and its associated mutations have been recognized as an important mechanism in various tumor types. To investigate associations between MSI and oral squamous cell carcinoma, the frequency of MSI using 12 microsatellite markers were analyzed for the series of oral tumors. Of 17 tumors, 8 cases(47%) did not show instability at any of the 12 loci; 5(29%) showed instability at $2{\sim}3$ loci; and 4(24%) showed instability above 4 loci. The 4 cases showing widespread MSI did not differ from those without evidence of instability in terms of age at diagnosis, degree of differentiation, metastasis to lymph node, tumor location or the presence of mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene. DCC and D17S 796 were the most frequently detected in MSI analysis. There were no correlation between smoking and MSI frequency, instead, smoking was suggested to increase the mutation rate of p53 and development of oral carcinomas.

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Flood Runoff Computation for Mountainous Small Basins using WMS Model (WMS 모형을 활용한 산지 소하천 유역의 유출량 산정)

  • Chang, Hyung Joon;Lee, Jung Young;Lee, Hyo Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2021
  • The frequency of flash floods in mountainous areas is increasing due to the abnormal weather that occurs increasingly in the recent, and it causes human and material damages is increasing. Various plans for disaster mitigation have been established, but artificial plans such as raising embankment and dredging operation are inappropriate for valleys and rivers in national parks that prioritize nature protection. In this study, flood risk assessment was conducted for Gyeryongsan National Park in Korea using the WMS (Watershed Modeling System)which is rainfall runoff model for valleys and rivers in the catchment. As the result, it was simulated that it is flooding in three sub-catchments (Jusukgol, Sutonggol, Dinghaksa) of a total in Gyeryongsan National Park when rainfall over the 50 years return period occurs, and it was confirmed that the risk of trails and facilities what visitors are using was high. The risk of trails in national parks was quantitatively presented through the results of this study, and we intend to present the safe management guidelines of national parks in the future.

The Natural hazards and Drought Periodicity during the Medieval Times in Korea Based on the History of Goryeo(Goryeosa) (고려사를 통해 본 한국 중세의 자연재해와 가뭄주기)

  • YOON, Soon-Ock;HWANG, Sangill
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 2010
  • The natural hazards such as droughts, floods and frost injuries, and their relationships with the social unrest phenomena such as years of famine, smallpox and revolutions during the Medieval times(AD 936~1391) in Korea are compared and analyzed based on the History of Goryeo containing astronomical weather and climate events during the Goryeo Dynasty. Among the natural hazards during the Goryeo Dynasty, the droughts with a period of 4~5 years on average are recorded most frequently. By time series analysis, the most frequency of droughts can be found in AD 286~335, AD 786~835 and AD 1261~1320 during the Ancient and Medieval times. It is suggested that three cycles of the droughts during approximately 1,500 years of the Ancient and Medieval times are recognized and they had happened with the time intervals of approximately 500 years. The frequency of droughts increased in the late Goryeo Dynasty is consistent with those of the social chaos factors such as years of famines, smallpox and revolutions. These records suggest that the natural hazard such as years of famines was one of the most important factors influencing on the collapse of the Goryeo Dynasty, agrarian country.

Derivation of Relationship between Cross-site Correlation among data and among Estimators of L-moments for Generalize Extreme value distribution (Generalized Extreme Value 분포 자료의 교차상관과 L-모멘트 추정값의 교차상관의 관계 유도)

  • Jeong, Dae-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.3B
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    • pp.259-267
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    • 2009
  • Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is recommended for flood frequency and extreme rainfall distribution in many country. L-moment method is the most common estimation procedure for the GEV distribution. In this study, the relationships between the cross-site correlations between extreme events and the cross-correlation of estimators of L-moment ratios (L-moment Coefficient of Variation (L-CV) and L-moment Coefficient of Skewness (L-CS)) for data generated from GEV distribution were derived by Monte Carlo simulation. Those relationships were fit to the simple power function. In this Monte Carlo simulation, GEV+ distribution were employed wherein unrealistic negative values were excluded. The simple power models provide accurate description of the relationships between cross-correlation of data and cross-correlation of L-moment ratios. Estimated parameters and accuracies of the power functions were reported for different GEV distribution parameters combinations. Moreover, this study provided a description about regional regression approach using Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression method which require the cross-site correlation among L-moment estimators. The relationships derived in this study allow regional GLS regression analyses of both L-CV and L-CS estimators that correctly incorporate the cross-correlation among GEV L-moment estimators.

Study on gout screening programme in province (통풍검사 결과연구)

  • Kang, Kyung-Hee;Hwang, Hye-Jeong;Hong, Su-Min;Lim, Yeon-Hwan;Lee, Young-Hee
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.615-620
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    • 2013
  • This research is a data analysis result of a future gout treatment was carried out in order to take advantage of basic data by Planned Population Federation of Korea in 2012, classified by gender. Using SPSS 18.0 analysis, frequency analysis, chi-squared analysis and logistic regression analysis were conducted. As a result, there were exceptional number of male subjects that required hyperuricemia thorough complete examination, and in case of hypouricemia, it is notable to find much more female subjects (p<0.001). Subjects that required thorough complete examination per age group and hypouricemia were significantly higher in those above the age of 70 years(p<0.001). Conclusions that required hyperuricemia thorough complete examination were a bit higher in the city areas and hypouricemia was a bit higher in the county areas, hyperuricemia was a bit higher in ratio in inland areas and hypouricemia was a bit higher in ratio in the coastal areas. I believe that continuous observation of gout prevalence rate based on this research by year, age group, and gender, would be extremely useful in making decisions regarding the changing trend of gout prevalence rate. In addition, hyperuricemia increased in postmenopausal women, as well as research on the causes of hypouricemia study.

Analysis of Secular Change Using Eddy Covariance Method in Yongdam Experimental Catchment (에디공분산 방법을 이용한 용담시험유역의 증발산량 경년변화 분석)

  • Moon, Duck Young;Lim, Kwang-Suop
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.209-210
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    • 2016
  • 우리나라의 연평균강수량은 약 1362 mm이며, 총강수량의 약 30% 이상이 증발산을 통해 손실되고 있다고 추정되어지고 있다. 증발산은 물 수지 분석에 있어 매우 중요한 성분이며, 많은 부분을 차지하지만 다른 요인들에 비해 직접적인 관측이 어려워 과거에는 경험식을 사용하거나 단순하게 가정에 의해 결정해 왔다. 또한 기상자료로부터 증발산량을 추정하거나 증발접시나 추정식으로 잠재증발산을 추정하고 있다. 또한 최근 기후변화의 가속화에 따른 홍수의 가뭄의 강도와 빈도가 높아지고 있으며, 이에 따라 수자원 관리에 있어서 기초수문조사 항목에 많은 변화를 요구하고 있다. 그 결과 2007년 4월 하천법 개정으로 증발산량 및 토양수분량이 기초수문조사 항목으로 추가되었으며, K-water 연구원에서는 용담시험유역에 플럭스타워를 설치하였고 현재 운영 중에 있다. 덕유산 플럭스타워는 용담시험유역 내에 위치한 금강 수계 구량천 상류부의 덕곡제 유역 내에 설치하였으며, 2011년 4월부터 실제 증발산량을 관측하고 있다. 동경 $127^{\circ}$42'23" ~ $127^{\circ}$44'53", 북위 $35^{\circ}$50'47" ~ $35^{\circ}$52'50"사이로 중부지방에 위치한 유일한 증발산관측 타워이다. 유역 면적은 9.27 km2으로 유로연장 3.48 km, 유역 평균폭 2.66 km, 형상계수는 0.77이며, 덕곡제플럭스 타워 주변의 토지이용은 대부분 산림으로 구성되어 있으며, 침활 혼효림과 낙엽송림으로 임상 분포가 이루어져 있다. 주요 관측기기로는 3차원 풍향 풍속계, $CO_2/H_2O$ 기체분석기, 순복사 측정 센서, 지중열플럭스 측정 센서 등이 있다. 2011년부터 측정된 자료를 바탕으로 에디공분산 방법을 이용하여 증발산량을 측정하였으며, 30분간의 데이터 18,000개 중 취득률 90 % 이상의 데이터를 대상을 분석을 실시하였다. 2011 ~ 2015년도 증발산량 분석 결과는 아래의 표와 같다. 증발산의 패턴은 1월부터 서서히 증가하지만 활발하지는 않고, 4월부터 매우 활발해져 8월에 최대치에 이른다. 10월부터 증발산량은 급격히 감소하기 시작하며 11, 12월에는 증발산이 거의 발생하지 않는 공통적인 경향을 보였다. 2013년 8, 9월은 다른 해와 다른 경향을 보이고 있는데, 이는 2013년 8, 9월에 강우가 많이 발생하여 증발산량이 감소하였기 때문으로 판단된다. 2015년 8월은 다른 년도와 비교했을 때, 매우 높은 증발산량을 보이는데 이는 2015년 8월에 많은 강우에도 식생이 활발하게 작용하였기 때문으로 판단된다.

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The lnfluence of Weighting Value derived by the Regression Equation on the Result of Vulnerability Assessment (회귀식에 의해 도출된 가중치가 취약성 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoo, Somin;Lee, Woo-kyun;Chae, Yeo-ra;Kwak, Hanbin;Kim, Moon-Il;Jung, Raesun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.331-348
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    • 2013
  • The frequency and intensity of abnormal climate caused by climate change is increasing in Korea. Also, the amount of damage from disaster is increasing rapidly. The research on vulnerability assessment analyzes environmentally, socially and economically vulnerable indicators and is ongoing to reduce the intensity of damage and establish adaptation policies for climate change. Therefore, in this study, we assessed vulnerability using weighting value derived by the regression equation. There are 3 evaluation items : vulnerability assessment for farmland erosion to flood, vulnerability assessment for health to heat wave, vulnerability assessment for forest fire to drought. For this study, indicators for each sectors were selected and spatial data for each sectors were established using GIS program. Results showed that vulnerability to heat wave was more affected by climate factors. On the other hand, vulnerability to flood and drought was more affected by social-economic factors. Then, to analysis efficiency of the regression analysis, vulnerability result was compared between the existing vulnerability research with no weighting applied and the vulnerability research with the influence of weighting value derived by the regression. This study showed that the regression analysis is efficient to provide practical and feasible alternatives in terms of planning climate change adaptation policies and it is expected to be utilized for vulnerability assessment in the future.

Study on Disaster Response Strategies Using Multi-Sensors Satellite Imagery (다종 위성영상을 활용한 재난대응 방안 연구)

  • Jongsoo Park;Dalgeun Lee;Junwoo Lee;Eunji Cheon;Hagyu Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_2
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    • pp.755-770
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    • 2023
  • Due to recent severe climate change, abnormal weather phenomena, and other factors, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are increasing. The need for disaster management using artificial satellites is growing, especially during large-scale disasters due to time and economic constraints. In this study, we have summarized the current status of next-generation medium-sized satellites and microsatellites in operation and under development, as well as trends in satellite imagery analysis techniques using a large volume of satellite imagery driven by the advancement of the space industry. Furthermore, by utilizing satellite imagery, particularly focusing on recent major disasters such as floods, landslides, droughts, and wildfires, we have confirmed how satellite imagery can be employed for damage analysis, thereby establishing its potential for disaster management. Through this study, we have presented satellite development and operational statuses, recent trends in satellite imagery analysis technology, and proposed disaster response strategies that utilize various types of satellite imagery. It was observed that during the stages of disaster progression, the utilization of satellite imagery is more prominent in the response and recovery stages than in the prevention and preparedness stages. In the future, with the availability of diverse imagery, we plan to research the fusion of cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence and deep learning, and their applicability for effective disaster management.

Analysis of inundation and rainfall-runoff in mountainous small catchment using the MIKE model - Focusing on the Var river in France - (MIKE 모델을 이용한 산지소유역 강우유출 및 침수 분석 - 프랑스 Var river 유역을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Suwon;Jang, Dongwoo;Jung, Seungkwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2023
  • Recently, due to the influence of climate change, the occurrence of damage to heavy rain is increasing around the world, and the frequency of heavy rain with a large amount of rain in a short period of time is also increasing. Heavy rains generate a large amount of outflow in a short time, causing flooding in the downstream part of the mountainous area before joining the small and medium-sized rivers. In order to reduce damage to downstream areas caused by flooding, it is very important to calculate the outflow of mountainous areas due to torrential rains. However, the sewage network flooding analysis, which is currently conducting the most analysis in Korea, uses the time and area method using the existing data rather than calculating the rainfall outflow in the mountainous area, which is difficult to determine that the soil characteristics of the region are accurately applied. Therefore, if the rainfall is analyzed for mountainous areas that can cause flooding in the downstream area in a short period of time due to large outflows, the accuracy of the analysis of flooding characteristics that can occur in the downstream area can be improved and used as data for evacuating residents and calculating the extent of damage. In order to calculate the rainfall outflow in the mountainous area, the rainfall outflow in the mountainous area was calculated using MIKE SHE among the MIKE series, and the flooding analysis in the downstream area was conducted through MIKE 21 FM (Flood model). Through this study, it was possible to confirm the amount of outflow and the time to reach downstream in the event of rainfall in the mountainous area, and the results of this analysis can be used to protect human and material resources through pre-evacuation in the downstream area in the future.