• Title/Summary/Keyword: 홍수유출해석기법

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Stochastic Continuous Storage Function Model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering (II) : Application and Verification (앙상블 칼만필터를 연계한 추계학적 연속형 저류함수모형 (II) : - 적용 및 검증 -)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Shamir, Eylon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.11
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    • pp.963-972
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate an application of stochastic continuous storage function model with ensemble Kalman filter technique. The case study is performed at the upstream basin of Jibo streamflow gauge including Andong and Imha dam. Test period is for the rainy season during 2006 and 2007. Long term runoff analysis is feasible in the case of using deterministic model. Ensemble members for input data and parameters are generated using Monte Carlo simulation for the purpose of applying ensemble Kalman filter technique. The cumulative absolute errors of stochastic model to the deterministic one are improved for the amount of 17.5 %, 18.3 % and more than 40.0 % for Andong dam, Imha dam and Jibo station, respectively. The results indicate that the stochastic model improves the accuracy of the simulated discharge considerably.

Estimation of Mega Flood Using Mega Rainfall Scenario (거대강우 시나리오를 이용한 거대홍수량 산정)

  • Han, Daegun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Jung, Jeawon;Lee, Jongso;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, flood due to the consecutive storm events have been occurred and property damage and casualties are in increasing trend. This study calls the consecutively occurred storm events as a mega rainfall scenario and the discharge by the scenario is defined as a mega flood discharge. A mega rainfall scenario was created on the assumption that 100-year frequency rainfall events were consecutively occurred in the Gyeongancheon stream basin. The SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model was used to estimate the mega flood discharge using the scenario in the basin. In addition, in order to perform more reasonable runoff analysis, the parameters were estimated using the SCE_UA algorithm. Also, the calibration and verification were performed using the objective functions of the weighted sum of squared of residual(WSSR), which is advantageous for the peak discharge simulation and sum of squared of residual(SSR). As a result, the mega flood discharge due to the continuous occurrence of 100-year frequency rainfall events in the Gyeongan Stream Basin was estimated to be 4,802㎥/s, and the flood discharge due to the 100-year frequency single rainfall event estimated by "the Master Plan for the Gyeongancheon Stream Improvement" (2011) was 3,810㎥/s. Therefore, the mega flood discharge was found to increase about 992㎥/s more than the single flood event. The results of this study can be used as a basic data for Comprehensive Flood Control Plan of the Gyeongan Stream basin.

Comparison of rainfall-runoff performance based on various gridded precipitation datasets in the Mekong River basin (메콩강 유역의 격자형 강수 자료에 의한 강우-유출 모의 성능 비교·분석)

  • Kim, Younghun;Le, Xuan-Hien;Jung, Sungho;Yeon, Minho;Lee, Gihae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2023
  • As the Mekong River basin is a nationally shared river, it is difficult to collect precipitation data, and the quantitative and qualitative quality of the data sets differs from country to country, which may increase the uncertainty of hydrological analysis results. Recently, with the development of remote sensing technology, it has become easier to obtain grid-based precipitation products(GPPs), and various hydrological analysis studies have been conducted in unmeasured or large watersheds using GPPs. In this study, rainfall-runoff simulation in the Mekong River basin was conducted using the SWAT model, which is a quasi-distribution model with three satellite GPPs (TRMM, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CDR) and two GPPs (APHRODITE, GPCC). Four water level stations, Luang Prabang, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie, which are major outlets of the main Mekong River, were selected, and the parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated using APHRODITE as an observation value for the period from 2001 to 2011 and runoff simulations were verified for the period form 2012 to 2013. In addition, using the ConvAE, a convolutional neural network model, spatio-temporal correction of original satellite precipitation products was performed, and rainfall-runoff performances were compared before and after correction of satellite precipitation products. The original satellite precipitation products and GPCC showed a quantitatively under- or over-estimated or spatially very different pattern compared to APHPRODITE, whereas, in the case of satellite precipitation prodcuts corrected using ConvAE, spatial correlation was dramatically improved. In the case of runoff simulation, the runoff simulation results using the satellite precipitation products corrected by ConvAE for all the outlets have significantly improved accuracy than the runoff results using original satellite precipitation products. Therefore, the bias correction technique using the ConvAE technique presented in this study can be applied in various hydrological analysis for large watersheds where rain guage network is not dense.

Numerical Analysis of Infiltration in Permeable Pavement System considering Unsaturated Characteristics (불포화 특성을 고려한 투수성 포장 시스템의 침투성 수치해석)

  • Kim, Seungbae;Ahn, Jaehun;Teodosio, Bertrand;Shin, Hyunjun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.318-328
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    • 2015
  • Effective urban flood reduction and restoration of natural water cycle at present include the application of permeable pavements. The application of permeable pavement addresses urban water cycle and disaster related events which gained attention internationally. However, few researches have been conducted to investigate unsaturated behavior and evaluate the water characteristics curves of these type of pavement materials most especially in the unsaturated state. In this study, first the saturated permeability and the soil-water characteristics curve of a pervious concrete are evaluated based on laboratory tests, and, based on experimental results, the infiltration of permeable pavement system is numerically modelled. In the soil-water characteristics curve of a pervious concrete, the volumetric water content drops very steeply after the air entry value with increasing matric suction. From the finite element analyses, the performance of the permeable pavement when compared to impermeable pavement, confirmed that the whole system effectively delayed and reduced runoff.

Flood Simulation using Vflo and Radar Rainfall Adjustment Data by Statistical Objective Analysis (통계적 객관 분석법에 의한 레이더강우 보정 및 Vflo를 이용한 홍수모의)

  • Noh, Hui Seong;Kang, Na Rae;Kim, Byung Sik;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 2012
  • Recently, the use of radar rainfall data that can help tracking of the development and movement of rainfall's spatial distribution is drawing much attention in hydrology. The reliability of existing radar rainfall compared to gauge rainfall data on the ground has not yet been confirmed and so we have difficulties to apply the radar rainfall in hydrology. The radar rainfall for the applications in hydrology are adjusted merging method derived from gage. This study uses the Mean-Field Bias (MFB) and Statistical Objective Analysis (SOA) as correction methods to create adjusted grid-based radar rainfall data which can represent the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. This study used a storm event occurred in August 2010 for the adjustment of radar rainfall. In addition, the grid-based distributed rainfall-runoff model (Vflo), which enables more detailed examinations of spatial flux changes in the basin rather than the lumped hydrological models, has been applied to Gamcheon river basin which is a tributary of Nakdong River located in south-eastern part of the Korean peninsular and the basin area is $1005km^2$. The simulated runoff was compared with the observed runoff in an attempt to evaluate the usability of radar rainfall data and the reliability of the correction methods. The error range of peak discharge using each correction method was within 20 percent and the efficiency of the model was between 60 and 80 percent. In particular, the SOA method showed better results than MFB method. Therefore, the SOA method could be used for the adjustment of grid-based radar rainfall and the adjusted radar rainfall can be used as an input data of rainfall-runoff models.

Analysing the effect of impervious cover management techniques on the reduction of runoff and pollutant loads (불투수면 저감기법의 유출량 및 오염부하량 저감 효과 분석)

  • Park, Hyung Seok;Choi, Hwan Gyu;Chung, Se Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.16-34
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    • 2015
  • Impervious covers(IC) are artificial structures, such as driveways, sidewalks, building's roofs, and parking lots, through which water cannot infiltrate into the soil. IC is an environmental concern because the pavement materials seal the soil surface, decreasing rainwater infiltration and natural groundwater recharge, and consequently disturb the hydrological cycle in a watershed. Increase of IC in a watershed can cause more frequent flooding, higher flood peaks, groundwater drawdown, dry river, and decline of water quality and ecosystem health. There has been an increased public interest in the institutional adoption of LID(Low Impact Development) and GI(Green Infrastructure) techniques to address the adverse impact of IC. The objectives of this study were to construct the modeling site for a samll urban watershed with the Storm Water Management Model(SWMM), and to evaluate the effect of various LID techniques on the control of rainfall runoff processes and non-point pollutant load. The model was calibrated and validated using the field data collected during two flood events on July 17 and August 11, 2009, respectively, and applied to a complex area, where is consist of apartments, school, roads, park, etc. The LID techniques applied to the impervious area were decentralized rainwater management measures such as pervious cover and green roof. The results showed that the increase of perviousness land cover through LID applications decreases the runoff volume and pollutants loading during flood events. In particular, applications of pervious pavement for parking lots and sidewalk, green roof, and their combinations reduced the total volume of runoff by 15~61 % and non-point pollutant loads by TSS 22~72 %, BOD 23~71 %, COD 22~71 %, TN 15~79 %, TP 9~64 % in the study site.

Estimation of future probabilistic precipitation in urban watersheds and river flooding simulation considering IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) (IPCC 6차 평가 보고서(AR6)를 고려한 도시 유역 확률 강우량 산정과 하천 침수 모의)

  • Jun Seo Yoon;Im Gook Jung;Da Hong Kim;Jae Pil Cho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.88-88
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    • 2023
  • 지난 100년 동안 전 지구의 기상 이변이 꾸준히 증가하고 있다. 기후 변화는 도시 홍수 피해에 큰 영향을 끼치는데 급속한 도시화와 이상 기후로 인한 돌발 강우 패턴의 증가는 도시 침수의 취약성을 가중시킨다. 또한 급격한 도시 발전으로 인한 도심지의 불투수율 또한 꾸준히 증가하였다. 특히 2022년 8월 8일에 강남역과 도림천 일대에 내린 기록적인 강우는 기후 변화를 실감하게 하는 사회적 이슈가 되었으며 도심지 미래 수방 대책 변화를 상기시키는 계기가 되었다. 이로 인한 재해 피해에 최소화하기 위해 미래 기후 변화를 고려한 도심지의 새로운 방재 목표강우량 설정이 필요하다. 하지만 전 지구 모형(GCM)의 기후 변화 시나리오는 일 단위(Daily) 상세화 자료를 보편적으로 사용하고 있다. 하지만 이는 단기 강우 자료를 필요로 하는 도시 홍수 모의에서 제대로 활용할 수 없는 한계를 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 2019년에 발간된 IPCC 6차 평가 보고서(AR6)가 제안하는 SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 공통사회경제경로) 시나리오를 기반하여 상세화된 일 단위(Daily) 강우 데이터를 비모수적 통계 기법을 사용하여 시간 단위(Hourly)로 상세화하였다. 또한 지속 시간별 연 최대치 강우를 추출하여 빈도 해석을 통해 도시 유역의 미래 확률 강우량을 제시하였으며, 서울시 상습적인 침수 취약 지역인 도림천 유역에 강우-유출 모형(XP-SWMM)을 사용하여 미래전망 기후 자료인 SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5에 따른 미래 확률 강우 침수 모의를 실시하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 최신 기후 변화 시나리오를 고려한 서울시 방재 성능 목표 강우량 산정에 활용 가능할 것으로 사료되며 미래 강우량 침수 모의를 통해 침수 취약 구역인 도림천 일대 홍수피해의 근거 자료가 되는 것에 의의를 둔다. 또한 치수 분야에서 기후 변화를 고려하기 위해서는 기후 변화 시나리오에 따른 시간 단위 자료의 상세화가 필요함을 시사한다.

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Basin-scale PMF Estimation Method by considering Spatio-temporal Characteristics (시·공간성을 고려한 유역기반의 PMF 산정)

  • Kim, Youngkyu;Kim, Yeonsu;Yu, Wansik;Oh, Sungryul;Jung, Kwansue
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.139-139
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    • 2016
  • 가능최대홍수량(Probable Maximum Flood, PMF)이란 대규모 수공구조물을 설계하고자 할 때 막대한 경제적 손실 및 인명피해 등을 막기 위해 기준으로 삼는 설계홍수량이며, 통계학적으로는 약 10,000년 빈도에 해당된다. 우리나라의 호우 특성은 방위, 진행방향 및 위에 따른 해석이 매우 복잡하여 강우를 정형화하기 어렵다. Kim and Won(2004)은 이동성 호우의 경우 강우의 깊이-면적-지속기간(Rainfall Depth-Area-Duration)의 분석결과에서 상당한 오차를 야기하는 문제점을 지닌다고 주장하였다. 따라서 오차를 포함한 DAD의 산정결과는 가능최대강수량(Probable Maximum Precipitation, PMP) 및 가능최대홍수량 산정에도 영향을 미치기 때문에 정확도 높은 DAD 분석을 통한 PMF 산정이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 유역을 선정하고 각 지점의 시계열 강우 자료를 활용하여 공간분포화한 강우자료에 격자기반의 자동 강우장 탐색기법을 이용하여 DAD 분석을 실시하였다. 기존의 PMP 산정방법에서는 한반도 전역에서 발생했던 130 mm이상의 호우사상을 선정한 후에 각 호우의 범위에 있는 우량관측소의 강우자료를 이용하여 PMP를 산정한다. 그렇기 때문에 만약 상대적으로 긴 지속기간의 경우 호우의 범위가 우리나라 전역을 포함할 가능성이 크기 때문에 PMP 산정방법은 복잡하고, 기상이변이 잦지 않는 지역에서 산정된 PMP를 이용하여 PMF를 산정할 경우, 유역의 특성을 반영하지 않았기 때문에 과대산정의 우려가 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 먼저 연구대상유역을 선정한 뒤, 유역 내에 발생했던 호우경보와 호우주의보를 기준으로 호우사상을 선정하여 DAD 분석 후 PMP를 산정하였다. 그 후, 강우-유출관계를 파악하여 PMF를 산정하였다.

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Application of multi-dimensional flood damage analysis in urban area (도시지역 침수피해액 산정을 위한 다차원법 적용)

  • Tak, Yong Hun;Kim, Young Do;Kang, Boosik;Park, Mun Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.397-405
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    • 2017
  • In case of inundation in a city where populations and properties are highly concentrated, unlike rural areas it is necessary to apply the method of calculating the damage amount considering the sewage overflow and the corresponding building damage. In this study, Dorim 1 drainage sector has been analyzed with Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Assessment (MD-FDA) for flood forecast. It is analyzed with past flood history through the SWMM model and calculated the amount of damage with district base data and the result of flow analysis. The result of the SWMM model to predict a range of flood, it was shown that the wide area after 4 hours (at 16:30) by sewer overflow. The building damage was estimated using MD-FDA. As a result, the maximum flood area has shown as $205,955m^2$ (0~0.5 m: $205,190m^2$, over 0.5 m: $865m^2$) and estimated building damage of Dorim 1 drainage sector is approximately 15.5 billion KRW (Korean won) and other contents is 7 billion KRW (Korean won). Also from 0 to 0.5 m depth estimated damage is approximately 22.4 billion KRW (Korean won) and over 0.5 m is 100 million KRW (Korean won). Based on the results of this study, it would be necessary to estimate the amount of sub-divided flood damage in urban areas according to various damage patterns such as flood depth and flood time.

An Analysis of the Outflow reduction effect of Bio-retention in Small watershed during Short-term rainfall (단기 강우 시 소규모유역에서 생태저류지의 유출 저감효과 분석)

  • Cheon, Jong-hyeon;Kim, Jae-moon;Jang, Young-su;Shin, Hyun-suk
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.434-442
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    • 2019
  • Low Impact Development(LID) techniques has been attracting attention as a countermeasure to solve frequent flood damage in urban areas. LID is a techniques for returning to the natural hydrological cycle system by infiltrating the runoff from the impervious surface into the soil. The Bio-retention, one of the LID element technology has outflow reduction effect by reserving and infiltrating storm water runoff from watersheds. Recently, a number of studies have been carried out as interest in the reduction of storm water runoff and non-point pollutants in Bio-retention has increased. However, quantitative analysis on the outflow reduction of Bio-retention applied to small watershed is insufficient. In this study, Bio-retention model was constructed in a small watershed using K-LIDM which is capable of hydrologic analysis. When the storage capacity was increased or dividing the Bio-retention and watershed, the outflow reduction effect was 20% according to the storage capacity increase and 5~15% in the distributed Bio-retention system. The results of this analysis will be used as the basic data of future Bio-retention research related to watershed characteristics, vegetation type and soil condition.