• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.267-267
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• 2012

전 지구적으로 발생하고 있는 기후변화로 인한 기상이변으로 자연재해 발생빈도 및 피해규모는 증가하고 있는 추세로 나타나고 있다. 이에 따라 많은 연구는 자연재해에 직간접적으로 영향을 미치고 있는 홍수와 가뭄의 변화에 초점이 맞추어져 있는 것이 사실이다. 하지만, 최근에 우리나라의 경우 지난 2011년 2월에는 동해안의 폭설로 인하여 동해안지방 최심신적설량 극값 1위를 경신하였고, 2010년 1월 서울에는 40년만에 최대 적설량을 기록하는 등 최근 한반도에서 발생한 적설로 인하여 사회적 경제적 피해가 증가하고 있다. 따라서, 지구온난화에 기인한 기후변화 연구에서 상대적으로 소홀했던 적설량과 관련한 연구의 중요성도 대두되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 적설량에 온도 및 강수가 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위하여 관측기상자료를 이용하였다. 적설량은 기상인자들의 복잡한 비선형 조합으로 발생하기 때문에 적설량에 영향을 미치는 온도, 강수, 적설량의 비선형 과정들을 고려할 수 있는 신경망 모형을 이용하여 적설량 예측 모형을 구성하였다. 30년 이상의 관측자료를 보유하고 있는 기상청 산하 58개 관측지점의 자료를 이용하여 2002년 이전에 관측된 온도, 강수, 적설량을 지점별로 훈련시켰으며 이를 적설량 예측에 활용하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 구성된 신경망 모형에 2002년 이후 지점별 온도, 강우자료를 이용하여 적설량을 산정하고 통계분석을 실시한 결과 적설량 예측에 적용이 가능함을 확인하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.30-30
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• 2017

한반도의 기후변화는 전 세계 평균보다도 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 최근 빈발하고 있는 태풍 및 극한 강우, 폭설과 한파, 온난화 현상 등이 그 예이다. 특히 북한지역은 오랜 식량난과 에너지난으로 산림생태계가 훼손되어 홍수 및 이수와 같은 기후변화 관련 자연재해에 매우 취약하다. 이렇게 예상되는 대규모 자연재해를 대비하고 기후변화에 효율적으로 대처하기 위해서는 체계적이고 과학적인 기상 및 기후 예측 정보의 활용이 매우 중요하다. 하지만 북한지역은 우리가 수문자료를 구하기가 힘들고, 직접 측정을 할 수 없으므로 수문자료의 수집에 한계가 있기 때문에 기후변화관련 수문연구에 한계점이 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 WMO에서 제공하고 있는 북한의 27개 기상관측소의 강수량, 기온자료와 기상청의 RCP8.5기후변화시나리오를 제공 받아 각 관측소별 미래 잠재증발산량을 산정하였다. 또한 lumped conceptual model인 WASMOD 모형을 이용하여 북한의 대표유역(금야강, 대동강, 두만강, 압록강, 예성강, 임진강, 장연남대천)에 적용하여 부족한 수문시계열자료를 산정하였다. 이렇게 산정된 북한의 미래 수문순환요소의 시계열자료를 이용하여 통계분석, 변화점분석, 유황분석등 시계열 분석 등을 통해 RCP8.5기후변화시나리오 기반의 기후변화가 북한지역의 수문순환과정에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 이를 통해 유역규모의 수자원에 미치는 영향을 전망하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.202-202
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• 2017

전 세계적으로 기후변화로 인해 슈퍼태풍 및 극한 강우, 폭설과 한파, 온난화 현상이 발생하고 있으며, 한반도의 기후변화는 전 세계 평균보다도 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 특히 북한지역은 오랜 식량난과 에너지난으로 산림생태계가 훼손되어 홍수 및 이수와 같은 기후변화 관련 자연재해에 매우 취약하며, 무분별한 도시화에 따른 불투수층의 증가로 인해 유역내의 수문순환요소가 변화하고 있다. 이러한 기후변화에 효율적으로 대처하기 위해서는 체계적이고 과학적인 기상 및 기후정보의 활용이 중요하다. 하지만 본 논문의 대상지역인 북한지역은 우리가 수문자료를 구하기가 힘들고, 직접 측정 할 수 없기 때문에 수문순환분석에 한계가 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 WMO에서 제공하고 있는 북한의 27개 기상관측소의 강수량, 기온자료를 제공 받아 분석에 사용하였다. 본 논문에서는 기상정보를 이용하여 각 관측소별 잠재 증발산량을 산정하였으며, 또한 lumped conceptual model 인 WASMOD 모형을 이용하여 북한 미계측 유역의 유출량을 산정 하였다. 이렇게 산정된 수문순환요소 시계열 자료를 이용하여 통계분석, BCP, 유황분석등 시계열 분석을 통해 북한지역의 수문순환특성을 파악하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2008

This study intends to clarify the characteristics and causes of current changes in wintertime precipitation in Korea and to predict the future directions based on surface observational $(1973/04\sim2006/07)$ and modeled (GFDL 2.1) climate data. Analyses of surface observation data demonstrate that without changes in the total amount of precipitation, snowfall in winter (November-April) has reduced by 4.3cm/decade over the $1973\sim2007$ period. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of snowfall have decreased; the duration of snow season has shortened; and the snow-to-rain day ratio (STDR) has decreased. These patterns indicate that the type of wintertime precipitation has changed from snow to rain in recent decades. The snow-to-rain change in winter is associated with the increases of air temperature (AT) over South Korea. Analyses of synoptic charts reveal that the warming pattern is associated with the formation of a positive pressure anomaly core over northeast Asia by a hemispheric positive winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode. Moreover, the differentiated warming of AT versus sea surface temperature (SST) under the high pressure anomaly core reduces the air-sea temperature gradient, and subsequently it increases the atmospheric stability above oceans, which is associated with less formation of snow cloud. Comparisons of modeled data between torrent $(1981\sim2000)$ and future $(2081\sim2100)$ periods suggest that the intensified warming with larger anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the $21^{st}$ century will amplify the magnitude of these changes. More reduction of snow impossible days as well as more abbreviation of snow seasons is predicted in the $21^{st}$ century.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.40-55
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• 2023

Arbor Day is a day that encourages people to plant trees and symbolizes the timing of planting. Arbor Day has been honored on April 5th in Korea, but it often does not agree to actual planting time due to global warming. This study confirmed the discrepancy between Arbor Day and regional soil-thawing times and reviewed alternative dates for tree planting using satellite-based soil-thaw data (FT-ESDR) from 1991 to 2020. Study results showed that the start time of planting on the Korean Peninsula, which was indicated by soil-thaw dates, was March 24 during 1991-2000, and it progressively changed to March 17 during 2011-2020. Should Arbor Day be changed based on soil-thaw periods, mid-March would be the most comprehensive, suitable alternative period considering the number of governmental administration units (cities and counties) and the land area of soil-thaw. Tree-Planting Day (March 14) and International Day of Forests (March 21) were found suitable for alternative dates to Arbor Day because they were close to the average soil-thaw time of Korean Peninsula (March 19) and land area whose soil-thaw time was within 10 days from those two dates ranged from 52.5% to 58.8% centered geographically on the mid-section of the peninsula. Since the periods of soil-thaw will continue to change due to climate change, it is necessary to reflect the trend of advancing planting periods in the future if Arbor Day is changed to an earlier date.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 1995

One of the oldest fossil of conifers and taxads in the Korean peninsula includes Elatocladus, Ullmannia, Walchia and dates back to the Permian period of the Palaeozoic era. The only conifer which successfully survived since the Cretaceous period is Pinus and still thrives in Korea. The extinction of Miocene conifers, such as Sciadopitys, Taxodiaceae, Metasequoia and Cryptomeria may due to the climatic deteriorations during the late Pleistocene period. However, the cryophilous conifers and taxads, e.g..Pinus, Juniperus, Abies, Picea, Cupressaceae, Larix and Taxus continued to exist from the Miocene to the late Pleistocene and became major vegetational elements in the mountainous areas of Korea. As the temperature ameliorates in the late Holocene period, thermophilous Pinus (Diploxylon) gradually had increased in numbers and became a dominant vegetation in the lowland and montane areas since 2,000 years B.P. in korea. Out of various Korean conifers and taxads, Pinus which surviving since the Cretaceous period of Mesozoic era, ranges spatially from southern coastal area to northern alpine belt of the Korean peninsula. Pinus which contains largest species number in conifers is one of the most well-adapted genus to the Korean environment. The next important conifer Juniperus dates back to the Miocene period of Cenozoic era and continuously maintains speciation and expansion of distributional range. Other major conifers and taxads of Korea include Picea, Abies, Lorix and Taxus. The restriction of distributional range of Cephralotaxus and Tsuga may due to the climatic deterioration during the Pleistocene period of Cenozoic era. The patterns of the temporal and spatial distribution of Korean conifers and taxads may provide invaluable informations for the better understanding of present-day distributional range and ecology.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.49-58
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• 2014

Natural disasters of large scale such as typhoon, heat waves and snow storm have recently been increased because of climate change according to global warming which is most likely caused by greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Increase of greenhouse gases concentration has caused the augmentation of earth's surface temperature, which raised the frequency of incidences of extreme weather in northern hemisphere. In this paper, we present spatial analysis of future typhoon genesis based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 scenario, which applied latest carbon dioxide concentration trend. For this analysis, we firstly calculated GPI using RCP 8.5 monthly data during 1982~2100. By spatially comparing the monthly averaged GPIs and typhoon genesis locations of 1982~2010, a probability density distribution(PDF) of the typhoon genesis was estimated. Then, we defined 0.05GPI, 0.1GPI and 0.15GPI based on the GPI ranges which are corresponding to probability densities of 0.05, 0.1 and 0.15, respectively. Based on the PDF-related GPIs, spatial distributions of probability on the typhoon genesis were estimated for the periods of 1982~2010, 2011~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100. Also, we analyzed area density using historical genesis points and spatial distributions. As the results, Philippines' east area corresponding to region of latitude $10^{\circ}{\sim}20^{\circ}$ shows high typhoon genesis probability in future. Using this result, we expect to estimate the potential region of typhoon genesis in the future and to develop the genesis model.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.291-306
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• 2021

From the climate change scenario experiments of 21 models participating in Coupled Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, future changes of sea surface temperature (SST) and Kuroshio in the Northwest Pacific were analyzed. The spatial feature of SST change was found to be related to the change of the current speed and spatial distribution of Kuroshio. To investigate the relationship between the change in latitude of the Kuroshio extension region, which flows along the boundary between the subtropical gyre and the subarctic gyre in the North Pacific, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation due to global warming, the zero-windstress curl line for each climate change experiment from 9 out of 21 models were compared. As the atmospheric radiative forcing increases due to the increase of greenhouse gases, it was confirmed that the zero-windstress curl line moves northward, which is consistent with the observation. These results indicate that as the Hadley Circulation expands to the north due to global warming, the warming of the mid-latitudes to which the Korean Peninsula belongs may be accelerated. The volume transport and temperature of the Tsushima Warm Current flowing into the East Sea through the Korea Strait also increased as the atmospheric radiative forcing increased.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.28-38
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• 2019

Climate change on the Korean peninsula is progressing faster than the global average. For example, typhoons, extreme rainfall, heavy snow, cold, and heatwave that are occurring frequently. North Korea is particularly vulnerable to climate change-related natural disasters such as flooding and flooding due to long-term food shortages, energy shortages, and reckless deforestation and development. In addition, North Korea is classified as an unmeasured area due to political and social influences, making it difficult to obtain sufficient hydrologic data for hydrological analysis. Also, as interest in climate change has increased, studies on climate change have been actively conducted on the Korean Peninsula in various repair facilities and disaster countermeasures, but there are no cases of research on North Korea. Therefore, this study selects watershed characteristic variables that are easy to acquire in order to apply localization model to North Korea where it is difficult to obtain observed hydrologic data and estimates parameters based on meteorological and topographical characteristics of 16 dam basins in South Korea. Was calculated. In addition, as a result of reviewing the applicability of the parameter estimation equations calculated for the fifty thousand, Gangneungnamdaecheon, Namgang dam, and Yeonggang basins, the applicability of the parameter estimation equations to North Korea was very high.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.83-92
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• 2004

A continuous monitoring of textural characteristics of surface sediments, sedimentation rates and beach profile was carried out to investigate the seasonal variations of sedimentary processes in the Imjado beach, southwestern coast of Korea for two years. The beach profiles consist of steep beach face and relatively flat middle and low tide beaches. The slope of the beach face increases in summer and decreases in winter, in good accordance with the standard beach cycle. Ridge and runnel systems are well developed in the middle and low tide beaches during the summer, but these structures are replaced by mega-ripples during the winter. The sediments are fining southward as well as landward. The mean grain-size tends to be increasingly coarser during seasons of autumn and winter on the north beach and during seasons of winter and spring on the south one. In addition, the sediments are eroded on the north beach and accumulated on the south one as a whole. These are probably due to southward transportation of the sediments as long-shore current (NE-SW) runs around the coastal line of the beach. However, the seasonal variations in accumulation rates are very complex and irregular. It is considered that the Imjado beach represents in non-equilibrium state, as a result of coastal and submarine topographic changes by artificial agents and sea-level uprising associated with global warming.