• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.11-21
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• 2019

Modeling and simulation(M&S) method are used to quantify the weapon effectiveness. The weapon effectiveness of artillery shells was also partially studied, but there was a lack of research on the effects of the choice of charge. Therefore, this paper presents an artillery shell's EFD(Expected Fractional Damage) calculation model based on the charge and identifies differences in the weapon effectiveness of 3D building targets according to the selection of the charge. First, the input data of the calculation model was collected and a required number of shoots was calculated to achieve the desired effects using the proposed model. Finally, a paired sample t-test was conducted to verify the proposed model.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.75-100
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• 2005

This study attempts to empirically investigate the respondents' preference uncertainty involved in stating their willingness to pay (WTP). In the contingent valuation (CV) survey, we employed two approaches using two split samples. The respondents of one sample were given the opportunity to express intensity of preference through polychotomous choice (PC) WTP question. Those of the other sample were given a follow-up question of confidence measure (0~100%). By incorporating the two elicited degrees of preference uncertainty into examining the WTP responses, we take a comparison of the two approaches in terms of the goodness-of-fit of the examination and the efficiency of the mean WTP estimates. In comparing the DC model with the PC models, the DC model provides more efficient estimates. Moreover, the conventional DC model give some gains in terms of the goodness-of-fit and efficiency in comparing with the PC model most similar to this model. In this specific study, incorporating the preference uncertainty in DC model results greater estimates than conventional DC model without loss of goodness-of-fit and efficiency. This implies that the consideration of preference uncertainty on DC model could correct underestimating. We conclude that DC model provides a better estimate of WTP and preference uncertainty could be a critical information on the DC-CV estimation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.304-304
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• 2018

이변량 빈도해석은 일반적으로 고정지속기간 강우량에 대해 빈도해석하는 단변량 빈도해석에 비해 지속기간을 확률변수로 이용하여 강우량과 동시에 확률변수로 사용할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 하지만 확률분포형의 차원이 증가하기 때문에 기존 단변량 빈도해석에서 요구되던 표본크기보다 더 많은 표본이 필요하다. 우리나라 강우관측소의 경우 오래된 관측소의 경우에도 기록년수가 60년을 넘지 않아 연최대계열로 확률표본을 작성할 경우 이변량 빈도해석을 수행하기에 부족할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 Peaks Over Threshold (POT) 방법을 이용하여 적정 확률표본을 선택하는 연구를 진행하였다. 서울 기상청 지점의 강우자료로부터 최소무강우시간을 이용하여 모든 강우사상을 추출하였으며 각 강우사상의 강우량과 지속기간이 확률변수로 사용되었다. 기존에 알려진 POT 방법들과 Anderson-Darling 적합도 검정을 이용한 절단값 산정방법등을 적용하여 확률표본 개수의 변화에 따른 주변분포형의 적합도 검정과 이변량 확률모형의 적합성을 살펴보았다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.435-443
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• 2005

Coefficients of determination in logistic regression analysis are defined as various statistics, and their values are relatively smaller than those for linear regression model. These coefficients of determination are not generally used to evaluate and diagnose logistic regression model. Liao and McGee (2003) proposed two adjusted coefficients of determination which are robust at the addition of inappropriate predictors and the variation of sample size. In this work, these adjusted coefficients of determination are applied to variable selection method for logistic regression model and compared with results of other methods such as the forward selection, backward elimination, stepwise selection, and AIC statistic.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1017-1028
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• 2011

When it is not easy to decide the credit scoring for some loan applicants, credit evaluation is postponded and reserve to ask a specialist for further evaluation of undecided applicants. This undecided inference is one of problems that happen to most statistical models including the biostatistics and sportal statistics as well as credit evaluation area. In this work, the undecided inference is regarded as a missing data mechanism under the assumption of MNAR, and use the bivariate probit model which is one of sample selection models. Two undecided inference methods are proposed: one is to make use of characteristic variables to represent the state for decided applicants, and the other is that more accurate and additional informations are collected and apply these new variables. With an illustrated example, misclassification error rates for undecided and overall applicants are obtainded and compared according to various characteristic variables, undecided intervals, and thresholds. It is found that misclassification error rates could be reduced when the undecided interval is increased and more accurate information is put to model, since more accurate situation of decided applications are reflected in the bivariate probit model.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.76-91
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• 2019

There have been many studies to examine the patterns in innovations reflecting industry-specific characteristics from an evolutionary economics perspective. The purpose of this study is to identify industry-specific differences in product innovation patterns and determinants of innovation performance. For this, Korean manufacturing is classified into high-tech industries and low-tech industries according to technology intensity. It is also pointed out that existing research does not reflect the decision-making process of firms' R&D implementations. In order to solve this problem, this study presents a Heckman sample selection model and a double-hurdle model as alternatives, and analyzes data from 1,637 firms in the 2014 Survey on Technology of SMEs. As a result, it was confirmed that the determinants and patterns of manufacturing in small and medium-size enterprise (SME) product innovation are significantly different between high-tech and low-tech industries. Also, through an extended empirical model, we found that there exist a sample selection bias and a hurdle-like threshold in the decision-making process. In this study, the industry-specific features and patterns of product innovation are examined from a multi-sided perspective, and it is meaningful that the decision-making process for manufacturing SMEs' R&D performance can be better understood.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.4-4
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• 2017

수문자료의 빈도해석은 자료의 독립성(independence)와 정상성(stationarity)를 가정하여 이뤄진다. 그러나 관측 수문자료에서 비정상성 현상이 발생하고 있다는 사실이 관측되면서 수문자료에 대한 비정상성 빈도해석에 대한 필요성도 커지고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 수문자료의 빈도해석에서 가장 널리 사용되고 있는 Gumbel 및 GEV 분포에 대한 비정상성 빈도해석 모형을 개발하는 것으로, 이를 위해 비정상성 Gumbel과 GEV 모형의 매개변수를 시간에 따라 변하는 형태로 정의하였다. 비정상성 Gumbel 및 GEV 모형의 정확도를 알아보기 위해 비정상성 모형과정상성 모형을 이용하여 Monte Carlo 모의실험을 수행하였다. 모의실험은 다양한 조건의 재현기간, 표본크기, 매개변수 조건을 고려하여 수행되었다. 그 결과 비정상성 모형의 오차는 비교적 표본크기가 클 때 가장 작은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 복잡한 매개변수의 조합을 가지는 비정상성 모형은 모두 동일한 경향성을 가질 때 가장 작은 오차를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 비정상성 GEV 모형의 경우는 확률수문량 산정에 음(-)의 형상 매개변수가 큰 영향을 끼치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 본 연구에서는 비정상성 조건에서 다양하게 존재하는 비정상성 모형 중 어떠한 모형이 주어진 자료에 대해 가장 적절한 모형인지 결정하기 위해 모의실험을 수행하였다. 널리 적용되고 있는 AIC, BIC, likelihood ratio test에 대해 정상성 및 비정상성 Gumbel 모형을 이용하여 모의실험을 수행한 결과, AIC가 비정상성 모형 중 적정 모형 선택에 가장 효과적인 것으로 나타났다. 개발된 비정상성 Gumbel 및 GEV 모형의 적용성을 알아보기 위해 우리나라 연최대강우 자료에 적용한 결과, 위치 매개변수에 시간항을 고려하는 Gumbel 모형이 최적모형으로 가장 많이 선택되는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 현재 우리나라의 연최대강우자료 중 경향성이 나타나는 자료에 대해서는 위치 매개변수가 시간에 따라 변하는 특성이 가장 많이 나타나고 있는 것으로 판단된다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.643-656
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• 2016

High dimensional data are frequently encountered in various fields where the number of variables is greater than the number of samples. It is usually necessary to select variables to estimate regression coefficients and avoid overfitting in high dimensional data. A penalized regression model simultaneously obtains variable selection and estimation of coefficients which makes them frequently used for high dimensional data. However, the penalized regression model also needs to select the optimal model by choosing a tuning parameter based on the model selection criterion. This study deals with the bias effect of LASSO regression for model selection criteria. We numerically describes the bias effect to the model selection criteria and apply the proposed correction to the identification of biomarkers for lung cancer based on gene expression data.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.51-73
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is estimating the value of recreation of the eighteen national parks in Korea. A conditional logit model and a nested logit model have been estimated for the purpose. The data used for the study have been collected via a national level off-site survey. In addition, the annual aggregate data on the number of visitors to each park have been combined with the survey data to derive more reliable estimates. The paper finds that there are substantial differences in preferences for mountain and marine national parks. Not only the value of each park but also the values of the main characteristics of the parks are estimated.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-42
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• 2021

The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.